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How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?

Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Fonte: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Publicador: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Tipo: Research Paper or Report
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.33%
Fiscal and monetary policy each has a role to play in mitigating the volatility that stems from the large trade shocks hitting commodity-exporting countries. All too often macroeconomic policy is procyclical, that is, destabilizing, rather than countercyclical. This paper suggests two institutional innovations designed to achieve greater countercyclicality, one for fiscal policy and one for monetary policy. The proposal for fiscal policy is to emulate Chile’s structural budget rule, and particularly its avoidance of over-optimism in forecasting. The proposal for monetary policy is called Product Price Targeting (PPT), an alternative to CPI-targeting that is designed to be more robust with respect to terms of trade shocks.

A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity Exporters in Latin America

Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Fonte: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Publicador: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
Tipo: Research Paper or Report
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
Seven possible nominal variables are considered as candidates to be the anchor or target for monetary policy. The context is countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which tend to be price takers on world markets, to produce commodity exports subject to volatile terms of trade, and to experience procyclical international finance. Three anchor candidates are exchange rate pegs: to the dollar, euro and SDR. One candidate is orthodox Inflation Targeting. Three candidates represent proposals for a new sort of inflation targeting that differs from the usual focus on the CPI, in that prices of export commodities are given substantial weight and prices of imports are not: PEP (Peg the Export Price), PEPI (Peg an Export Price Index), and PPT (Product Price Targeting). The selling point of these production-based price indices is that each could serve as a nominal anchor while yet accommodating terms of trade shocks, in comparison to a CPI target. CPI-targeters such as Brazil, Chile, and Peru are observed to respond to increases in world prices of imported oil with monetary policy that is sufficiently tight to appreciate their currencies, an undesirable property, which is the opposite of accommodating the terms of trade. As hypothesized...

A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity Exporters in Latin America

Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Fonte: Brookings Institution Press Publicador: Brookings Institution Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.5%
Seven possible nominal variables are considered as candidates to be the anchor or target for monetary policy. The context is countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), which tend to be price takers on world markets, to produce commodity exports subject to volatile terms of trade, and to experience procyclical international finance. Three candidates are exchange rate pegs: to the dollar, euro and SDR. One candidate is orthodox Inflation Targeting. Three candidates represent proposals for a new sort of inflation targeting that differs from the usual focus on the CPI, in that prices of export commodities are given substantial weight and prices of imports are not: PEP (Peg the Export Price), PEPI (Peg an Export Price Index), and PPT (Product Price Targeting). The selling point of these production-based price indices is that each could serve as a nominal anchor while yet accommodating terms of trade shocks, in comparison to a CPI target. All seven nominal anchors deliver greater overall nominal price stability in our simulations than the inflationary historical monetary regimes actually followed by LAC countries (with the exception of Panama). A dollar peg does not particularly stabilize domestic commodity prices. As hypothesized...

Reducing Distortions in International Commodity Markets : An Agenda for Multilateral Cooperation

Hoekman, Bernard; Martin, Will
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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46.62%
Global commodity markets are affected by a variety of government policies that may expand or lower overall supply and as a result affect world prices for the specific products concerned. Market failures and market structures (market power along the value chain) also affect supply. This paper briefly reviews a number of factors that may distort international commodity markets with a view to identifying elements of an agenda for multilateral cooperation to reduce such distortions. Much of the policy agenda that arises is domestic and requires action by national governments. But numerous policies -- or absence of policy -- generate international spillovers that call for the negotiation of international policy disciplines. Independent of whether distortions are local or international in scope, the complexity of prevailing market structures and their impacts on efficiency call for much greater monitoring and analysis by the international community.

Primary Commodity Prices : Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

Byrne, Joseph P.; Fazio, Giorgio; Fiess, Norbert
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.66%
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.

The Short and Longer Term Potential Welfare Impact of Global Commodity Inflation in Tanzania

Dessus, Sébastien
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.65%
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of commodity price inflation in Tanzania and possible tax policy responses in the short, medium, and long term. The results suggest that global commodity inflation since 2006 may have had a significantly negative impact on all Tanzanian households. Most of the negative impact comes from the rise in the price of oil. In contrast, food price spikes are potentially welfare improving for all Tanzanian households in the medium to long run. In comparison with nonpoor households, poor households in Tanzania may be relatively shielded from global commodity inflation because they derive a larger share of their incomes from agricultural activity and consume less oil-intensive products. Finally, the results suggest that tax policies encouraging greater agricultural production and consumption may help to reduce poverty. In contrast, policies discouraging agricultural production (such as export bans) bear the risk of increasing poverty in the long run. However...

Savings and the Terms of Trade under Borrowing Constraints

Agenor, Pierre-Richard; Aizenman, Joshua
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.97%
The authors examine the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. Using a simple three-period model, they show that if households expect to face binding constraints on borrowing in bad states of nature (when the economy is in a long trough rather than a sharp peak). Savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade - in contrast with the predictions of conventional consumption-smoothing models. They test the asymmetric effects of terms-of-trade disturbances using an econometric model that controls for various standard determinants of private savings. The results - based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa for 1980-96 (a group of countries for which movements in the terms of trade have traditionally represented a key source of macroeconomic shocks) - indicate that increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade (measured using three alternative filtering techniques) indeed tend to be associated with higher rates of private savings.

Global Commodity Markets : Review and Price Forecast

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.58%
A companion to Global Development Finance 2009. The slowing of global growth, which preceded the financial crisis by several months, prompted commodity prices to start falling in mid-2008. The eruption of the full-blown crisis and the rapid drop-off in economic activity since September of that year accelerated this process markedly. Demand for most commodities (notably, in high-income industries and in China) slowed or declined, particularly for oil and metals. By December 2008, crude oil prices had dropped to $41 a barrel, down more than 70 percent from the July peaks, while non-energy prices, including food,had declined by nearly 40 percent. Since December, prices have firmed, with crude oil prices up to $69 on average in June 2009, and prices for foods and metals up 22 and 13 percent, respectively.

Adapting importation policy to global commodity markets: implications of rice import allocation in Singapore

Tey, Y.S.; Brindal, M.
Fonte: Springer Netherlands Publicador: Springer Netherlands
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.5%
Structural changes in the global commodity markets have particularly serious implications to the food security of import-dependent countries. Adapting importation policy to that global change is essential given that many commodities are imported to fulfill domestic demand. Using Singapore as a case study, this paper examines rice (Oryza) import allocation for seeking adaptive measures, which have broad implications to import-dependent countries. Its quarterly trade data (between 1999 and 2008) have been analyzed using an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model. Our findings in respect to expenditure elasticity reveal that Singapore will continue its importation from its current range of suppliers, and add new import sources, fulfilling its national diversification strategy. New sources that located in different regions will also strengthen Singapore’s regional diversification strategy. Both national and regional diversification strategies enable any country to tap into associative import sources when unfavorable events deplete supply from a normally preferred supplier. In addition, the results in respect to own-price elasticity suggest that Thailand is Singapore’s primary preferred source while other exporters are secondary suppliers. Supported by the outputs of cross-price elasticity...

The Impact of China’s Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Region; An Application of the GVAR Model

Inoue, Tomoo; Kaya, Demet; Ohshige, Hitoshi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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36.81%
An export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Pacific region’s economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China’s Asian trading partners benefit from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, reflecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely affected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China’s real GDP would not only have an adverse effect on the price of crude oil...

The consequences of China's WTO accession on its neighbors

McKibbin, Warwick J; Woo, Wing Thye
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 431138 bytes; 360 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
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46.56%
Southeast Asian industrial exports are facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more will competition increase as a result of China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Will Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialize and return to the roles they had in the 1950s and 1960s as primary commodity exporters? Or will there be sufficient lucrative niches within the manufacturing production chains in which the ASEAN-4 could specialize? Our simulations of a range of scenarios using a dynamic multisector and multicountry macroeconomic model suggest that, beyond the underlying international repercussions generated by China's emergence into the international economy, China's WTO accession per se is likely to generate additional substantial benefits for China and have little additional impact on the OECD economies. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that the full integration of China's huge labor force into the international division of labor might create significant welfare losses in the ASEAN-4, but only if foreign direct investment is significantly redirected away from these countries to China and, even in this case, only if the ASEAN-4 countries fail to absorb new foreign technologies quickly and to engage in indigenous technical innovations. If the ASEAN-4 do not fall behind technologically...

Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean : Beyond Booms and Busts?; Los recursos naturales en America Latina y el Caribe : mas alla de bonanzas y crisis?

Sinnott, Emily; Nash, John; de la Torre, Augusto
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.71%
Throughout, the history of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region, natural resource wealth has been critical for its economies. Production of precious metals, sugar, rubber, grains, coffee, copper, and oil have at various periods of history made countries in Latin America-and their colonial powers-some of the most prosperous in the world. In some ways, these commodities may have changed the course of history in the world at large. Latin America produced around 80 percent of the world's silver in the 16th through 19th centuries, fueling the monetary systems of not only Europe, but China and India as well. The dramatic movements in commodity markets since the early 2000s, as well as the recent economic crisis, provide new data to analyze and also underscore the importance of a better understanding of issues related to boom-bust commodity cycles. The current pattern of global recovery has favored LAC so far. Countercyclical policies have supported domestic demand in the larger LAC economies, and external demand from fast-growing emerging markets has boosted exports and terms of trade for LAC's net commodity exporters. Prospects for LAC in the short term look good. Beyond the cyclical rebound...

Over the Hedge : Exchange Rate Volatility, Commodity Price Correlations, and the Structure of Trade

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.85%
A long empirical literature has examined the idea that, in the absence of hedging mechanisms, currency risk should have an adverse effect on the export volumes of risk averse exporters. But there are no clear conclusions from this literature, and the current consensus seems to be that there is at most a weak negative effect of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows. However, most of this literature examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on aggregate trade flows, implicitly assuming a uniform impact of this volatility on exporters across sectors. This paper explots the fact that, if exchange rate volatility is detrimental for trade, firms exporting goods that offer a natural hedge against exchange rate fluctuations -- i.e. those whose international price is negatively correlated with the nominal exchange rate of the country where they operate -- should be relatively benefited in environments of high exchange rate volatility, and capture a larger share of the country's export basket. This hypothesis is tested using detailed data on the composition of trade of 132 countries at 4-digit SITC level. The results show that the commodities that offer natural hedge capture a larger share of a country's export basket when the exchange rate is volatile...

Trading Up to High Income : Turkey Country Economic Memorandum; Turkiye - Yuksek gelir statusune geciste dis ticaretin rolu : ulke ekonomik raporu

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
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36.68%
Turkish exporters substantially broadened market reach, exporting to 137 countries at present, up from 90 in 2000. Turkey's global market share rose substantially from 0.55 percent of global imports in 2002 to 0.82 percent in 2012. Turkey aims to become one of the ten largest economies in the world by 2023, with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) rising to United States (U.S.) $25,000 and exports to U.S. 500 billion dollars. This report focuses on Turkey's competitiveness from the supply side, but it is important to note that ensuring a more balanced mix of financing for the required investment through measures to boost domestic savings is equally important if Turkey's progress is to be sustained. Achieving Turkey's export target is possible and it will likely require a larger global market share. The relatively low level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkish manufacturing has been a constraint to export growth and quality improvements. Raising export growth to levels that help meet Turkey's development goals will require a policy agenda that targets sustained further improvements in Turkey's physical...

Agricultural Commodity Exchanges in Latin America and the Caribbean

Arias, Diego; Ferreira Lamas, Alfredo; Kpaka, Musa
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.71%
A commodity exchange is a goods and financial market where different groups of participants trade commodities and commodity-linked contracts, with the underlying objective of transferring exposure to commodity price risks (UNCTAD). A commodity exchange that only trades goods is known as a physical or 'cash or forward' market, while the exchange that trades price derivatives is known as financial or 'futures and options' market (see Glossary for detailed definitions). Some agriculture commodity exchanges have both. Agricultural commodity exchanges date as far back as the early 18th century. Modern exchanges, notably the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was created in 1848, recently merged with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), is one the oldest and most successful futures exchanges worldwide. Today several agricultural commodity exchanges exist throughout the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. They facilitate trade and financial products in countries whose economies have a relatively large share of primary and secondary agricultural activities or either account for auctions on substantial food imports. This report looks at the current development of agricultural commodity exchanges in the LAC region and offers public policy recommendations that can foster the development of such exchange markets.

The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development

Easterly, William
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.66%
Modern political economy stresses "society's polarization" as a determinant of development outcomes. Among the most common dorms of social conflict are class polarization, and ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus is defined as a high share of income for the middle class and a low degree of ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus distinguishes development successes from failures. A theoretical model shows how groups - distinguished by class or ethnicity - will under-invest in human capital and infrastructure when there is "leakage" to another group. The author links the existence of a middle class consensus to exogenous country characteristics, such as resource endowments, along the lines of the provocative thesis of Engerman and Sokoloff (1997), that tropical commodity exporters are more unequal than other societies. The author confirms this hypothesis with cross-country data. This makes it possible to use resource endowments as instruments for inequality. A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization...

Measuring the Impact of a Change in the Price of Cashew Received by Exporters on Farmgate Prices and Poverty in Guinea-Bissau

Cont, Walter; Porto, Guido
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.66%
This paper assesses the impact of a change in the price of cashew received by exporters in general -- and by FUNPI, a fund to promote the industrialization of agricultural products, in particular -- on farmgate prices and poverty in Guinea-Bissau. The analysis builds a theoretical model of supply chains in export agriculture that includes exporters, traders, and farmers competing in a bilateral oligopoly fashion. The model is adapted to data from the country's cashew sector and a household survey. Given the market structure, a shock on export prices or the introduction of an export tax, such as the FUNPI contribution, has a strong effect on farmgate prices, as farmers absorb about 80 percent of the tax (while exporters take up 13 percent and traders absorb the remaining 7 percent). The effect is uneven across households, as poor rural households are more exposed to price volatility and most cashew farmers are poor. It is estimated that their income falls by 12 percent as a result of the FUNPI contribution. Complementary policies can overcome the effect of the FUNPI surcharge on farmgate prices by aiming for reductions in transport...

Boom, Bust and Up Again? Evolution, Drivers and Impact of Commodity Prices: Implications for Indonesia; Laporan pengembangan sektor perdagangan - perkembangan, pemicu dan dampak harga komoditas : implikasinya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Jakarta Publicador: World Bank, Jakarta
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study; Economic & Sector Work
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.71%
Indonesia is one of the largest commodity exporters in the world, and given its mineral potential and expected commodity price trends, it could and should expand its leading position. Commodities accounted for one fourth of Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and more than one fifth of total government revenue in 2007. The potential for further commodity growth is considerable. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world (export earnings totaled almost US$9 billion in 2007 and employment 3.8 million full-time jobs) and the sector has good growth prospects. It is also one of the countries with the largest mining potential in view of its second-largest copper reserves and third-largest coal and nickel reserves in the world. This report consists of seven chapters. The first six chapters present an examination and an analysis of the factors driving increased commodity prices, price forecasts, economic impact of commodity price increases, effective price stabilization policies, and insights from Indonesia's past growth experience. The final chapter draws on the findings of the previous chapters and suggests a development strategy for Indonesia in the context of high commodity prices. This section summarizes the contents of the chapters and their main findings.

The European Horticulture Market : Opportunities for Sub-Saharan African Exporters; Le marche europeen des produits horticoles : opportunites pour les exportateurs d Afrique subsaharienne

Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.36%
Trade is an essential driver for sustained economic growth, and growth is necessary for poverty reduction. In Sub-Saharan Africa, where three-fourths of the poor live in rural areas, spurring growth and generating income and employment opportunities is critical for poverty reduction strategies. Seventy percent of the population lives in rural areas, where livelihoods are largely dependent on the production and export of raw agricultural commodities such as coffee, cocoa, and cotton, whose prices in real terms have been steadily declining over the past decades. The deterioration in the terms of trade resulted for Africa in a steady contraction of its share in global trade over the past 50 years. Diversification of agriculture into higher-value, non-traditional exports is seen today as a priority for most of these countries. Some African countries-in particular, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Zimbabwe-have managed to diversify their agricultural sector into non-traditional, high-value-added products such as cut flowers and plants...

Africa's Macroeconomic Story

Hostland, Douglas; Giugale, Marcelo M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.78%
Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances, excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed, however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the region. In resource rich countries, the process was supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries have the potential to greatly expand natural resource production and become major commodity exporters; volatile resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs among financing options at a time when global interest rates may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements -- notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies.