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Is Protectionism on the Rise? Assessing National Trade Policies during the Crisis of 2008

Kee, Hiau Looi; Neagu, Cristina; Nicita, Alessandro
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.74%
To understand the role of trade policies in the crisis of 2008, this paper constructs the overall trade restrictiveness indices for a wide range of countries using their tariff schedules in 2008 and 2009. The index summarizes the trade policy stance of a country, taking into account the share of each good in trade as well as its corresponding import demand elasticity. Results show that there is no widespread increase in protectionism via tariff policies since the global financial crisis has unfolded. While many countries have adjusted tariffs upward on selected products, only a handful of countries, such as Malawi, Russia, Argentina, Turkey and China focus on products that have significant impacts on trade flows. The United States and the European Union, by contrast, rely mainly on anti-dumping duties to shield domestic industries. Overall, while the rise in tariffs and anti-dumping duties in these countries may have jointly caused global trade to drop by as much as US$43 billion during the crisis period, it explains less than 2 percent of the collapse in world trade.

Trade and Regional Inequality

Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.73%
This paper examines the relationship between openness and within-country regional inequality across 28 countries over the period 1975-2005, paying special attention to whether increases in global trade affect the developed and developing world differently. Using a combination of static and dynamic panel data analysis, we find that while increases in trade per se do not lead to greater territorial polarization, in combination with certain country-specific conditions, trade has a positive and significant association with regional inequality. In particular, states with higher inter-regional differences in sector endowments, a lower share of government expenditure, and a combination of high internal transaction costs with a higher degree of coincidence between the regional income distribution and regional foreign market access positions have experienced the greatest rise in territorial inequality when exposed to greater trade flows. This means that changes in trade regimes have had a more polarizing effect in low and middle-income countries...

Estimates of Trade-Related Adjustment Costs in Syria

Lim, Jamus Jerome; Saborowski, Christian
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscores the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in preferential trading arrangements, and changes in the domestic import regime. The authors find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario may be substantial. Their analysis of the second scenario suggests that the number of tariff bands can be reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, via the introduction of a value added tax of sufficient but reasonable size.

Enhancing Regional Trade Integration in Southeast Europe

Handjiski, Borko; Lucas, Robert; Martin, Philip; Guerin, Selen Sarisoy
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.69%
Countries of the Southeast Europe (SEE) region have witnessed significant economic improvement since the beginning of their transition to market economies in the early 1990s. Growth has been particularly strong in the past six years, but still lower than in other fast growing countries in the East Asia and Baltic regions, or some of the other new member states of the European Union (EU). The purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to present recent trends in intra regional trade in SEE, in particular following the implementation of Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA); and (ii) to bring the attention of policy makers to some of the remaining impediments to enhanced intra regional trade. The rest of the study is organized as follows. Chapter two describes intraregional trade patterns, both prior and after the entry of CEFTA into force, including more detailed analysis of trade structure. Chapter three emphasizes the role of nontariff barriers (NTBs), such as technical regulations and standards, and their potential impact on trade enhancement...

Trends in Tariff Reforms and Trends in Wage Inequality

Galiano, Sebastian; Porto, Guido G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.73%
The authors provide new evidence on the impacts of trade reforms on wages and wage inequality in developing countries. While most of the current literature on the topic achieves identification by comparing outcomes before and after one episode of trade liberalization across industries, they propose a stronger identifying strategy. The authors explore the recent historical record of policy changes adopted by Argentina: from significant protection in the early 1970s, to the first episode of liberalization during the late 1970s, back to a slowdown of reforms during the 1980s, to the second episode of liberalization in the 1990s. These swings in trade policy comprise broken trends in trade reforms that they can compare with observed trends in wages and wage inequality. After setting up unusual historical data sets of trends in tariffs, trends in wages, and trends in wage inequality, the evidence supports two well-known hypotheses: trade liberalization, other things being equal, (1) has reduced wages, and (2) has increased wage inequality.

Moving Forward Faster : Trade Facilitation Reform and Mexican Competitiveness

Soloaga, Isidro; Wilson, John S.; Mejía, Alejandro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.74%
Improved competitiveness is at the top of the agenda for Mexico as it moves to leverage economic progress made over the past decade. The authors evaluate the impact of changes in trade facilitation measures on trade for main industrial sectors in Mexico. They use four indicators of trade facilitation: port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and e-commerce use by business (as a proxy for service sector infrastructure). The authors use gravity model results to consider how much trade among countries might be increased under various scenarios of improved trade facilitation. They follow a simulation strategy that uses a formula to design a unique program of reform for each country in the sample, and apply it to the case of Mexico. The formula brings the below-average countries in the group half-way to the average for the entire set of countries. After simulating these improvements in trade facilitation in all four areas, the authors find that the total increase in trade flow in manufacturing goods is estimated to be $348.2 billion (about 7.4 percent of total world trade). The analysis indicates that Mexico has a large scope for trade promotion from trade facilitation reform: overall increments from domestic reforms are expected to be on the order of $31.8 billion...

Trade Liberalization and Industry Wage Structure : Evidence from Brazil

Pavcnik, Nina; Blom, Andreas; Goldberg, Pinelopi; Schady, Norbert
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.8%
Industry affiliation provides an important channel through which trade liberalization can affect worker earnings and wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. This empirical study of the impact of the 1988-94 trade liberalization in Brazil on the industry wage structure suggests that although industry affiliation is an important component of worker earnings, the structure of industry wage premiums is relatively stable over time. There is no statistical association between changes in industry wage premiums and changes in trade policy or between industry-specific skill premiums to university graduates and trade policy. Thus trade liberalization in Brazil did not significantly contribute to increased wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers through changes in industry wage premiums. The difference between these results and those obtained for other countries (such as Colombia and Mexico) provides fruitful ground for studying the conditions under which trade reforms do not have an adverse effect on industry wage differentials

Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Adjustment in Brazil

Pavcnik, Nina; Blom, Andreas; Goldberg, Pinelopi; Schady, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.73%
The authors study the impact of the 1988-94 trade liberalization in Brazil on wage distribution. They explore three main channels through which trade liberalization could have affected wage distribution: (1) increasing returns to skilled workers because of Hecksher-Ohlin adjustments to trade policy; (2) trade-induced skill-biased technological change; and (3) changes in industry wage premiums. The results suggest that trade reform in Brazil did contribute to the growing skill premium through skill-biased technological change, which was partially instigated by increased foreign competition. The authors also find that sector-specific returns to skill increased more in sectors with bigger tariff reductions. But they find little support for Hecksher-Ohlin type adjustments to trade reform. Overall, the effects of trade reform on wage inequality seem relatively small.

Trade, Growth, and Poverty

Dollar, David; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.8%
The evidence from individual cases and from cross-country analysis supports the view that globalization leads to faster growth and poverty reduction in poor countries. To determine the effect of globalization on growth, poverty, and inequality, the authors first identify a group of developing countries that are participating more in globalization. China, India, and several other large countries are part of this group, so well over half the population of the developing world lives in these globalizing economies. Over the past 20 years, the post-1980 globalizers have seen large increases in trade and significant declines in tariffs. Their growth rates accelerated between the 1970s and the 1980s and again between the 1980s and the 1990s, even as growth in the rich countries and the rest of the developing world slowed. The post-1980 globalizers are catching up to the rich countries, but the rest of the developing world (the non-globalizers) is falling further behind. Next, the authors ask how general these patterns are...

Trading Away from Conflict : Using Trade to Increase Resilience in Fragile States

Cali, Massimiliano
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.8%
While economic growth in developing countries over the last ten years has lifted more people out of poverty than in any previous time, more than one billion people still live in countries affected by violent conflict. Conflict weakens governance, undermines economic development and threatens both national and regional stability. Trade shocks, in particular, can have widely varying impacts on conflict. This report sets out to empirically test these linkages between trade shocks and conflict via cross-country and intra-country analysis. On the basis of the analysis, it offers trade-related policy directions to reduce this risk in fragile economies. The results provide convincing evidence that trade and trade policy have a large impact on the risk and intensity of conflict. This report is composed of three main chapters. Chapter 1 develops a conceptual framework mapping the different channels through which trade may affect conflict and political stability. The framework is based on simple economic theory and the available empirical evidence on the impact of trade related changes on conflict and stability. It then tests this framework empirically through the analysis of cross-country data and through case studies of Nigeria and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The hope is that these types of intra-country analyses could be replicated in other countries...

Low-Income Developing Countries and G-20 Trade and Investment Policy

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.74%
This background paper provides information on the study of the Group of 20 (G-20) and challenges faced by low-income developing countries (LIDCs). The study analyzes LIDCs development challenges and how G-20 economic policies can be coordinated so they can contribute to creating an enabling environment for their development. The focus of the paper is the role that trade and investment policies of G-20 countries play in this context. The paper is composed of three parts 1) the characteristics of LIDCs integration in the world economy, 2) the evolution of G-20 policies that affect LIDCs integration, and 3) the potential for changes in the G-20 trade and investment policy landscape to benefit LIDCs.

Reciprocity in Free Trade Agreements

Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.75%
The author uses detailed trade, tariff, and income data for countries involved in 91 trade agreements negotiated since 1980 to test for reciprocity in free trade agreements. The results offer strong evidence of reciprocity in North-North and South-South free trade agreements, but there is little empirical support for reciprocity in North-South trade agreements. In particular, after controlling for other determinants of trade preferences, the results suggest that a one percent increase in preferences offered leads to about a one-half of a percent increase in preferences received in North-North and South-South trade agreements. Freund also finds evidence that large countries extract greater trade concessions from small countries. This leads to a modified form of reciprocity in North-South agreements. A large increase in access to a developing country market leads to only a small increase in access to a rich country market. The results imply that there are incentives for countries to maintain protection in order to extract more concessions from trade partners. But in general...

Trade Flows and Trade Disputes

Bown, Chad P.; Reynolds, Kara M.
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
This paper introduces a new data set and establishes a set of basic facts and patterns regarding the trade that countries fight about under World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paper characterizes the scope of products, as well as the levels of and changes to the trade values, market shares, volumes, and prices for those goods that eventually become subject to WTO litigation. The first result is striking heterogeneity in the level of market access at stake across disputes: for example, 14 percent of cases over disputed import products feature bilateral trade that is less than $1 million per year and another 15 percent feature bilateral trade that is more than $1 billion per year. Nevertheless, some strong patterns emerge from a more detailed examination of the data. Both high- and low-income complainants tend to suffer important losses in foreign market access in the products that ultimately become subject to dispute. Furthermore, although the respondent's imposition of an allegedly WTO-inconsistent policy is associated with reductions...

Who Benefited from Trade Liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the Effects on Household Welfare

Nicita, Alessandro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.76%
This study performs an ex-post analysis of the effects of the trade liberalization in Mexico between 1989 and 2000, taking into account regional differences in the Mexican economy. The effects of trade liberalization are first translated into changes in regional prices and wages. Those estimates are plugged into a farm-household model to estimate the effect on households' welfare. The findings suggest that trade liberalization has affected domestic prices and labor income differently both across income groups and geographically across the country, hence producing diverse outcomes on different households. Regarding prices, the results indicate that trade liberalization has lowered relative prices of most non-animal agricultural products and, while reducing the cost of consumption, has reduced households' agricultural income, widening the income gap between urban and rural areas. The findings also show that trade liberalization has had diverse effects on wage rates. Skilled workers, for which trade liberalization has produced an increase in wages...

Determinants of Export Growth at the Extensive and Intensive Margins : Evidence from Product and Firm-level Data for Pakistan

Reis, José Guilherme; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.77%
As globalization progresses and investment is mobile, it is ever more important for policy makers to understand drivers of growth and exports at the micro-level: Which products are being produced and exported? Which firms populate the domestic economy? Are they successful in exporting? How are firms affected by exogenous shocks and policy intervention? Through the use of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, this paper assesses the trade competitiveness of Pakistan using micro-data. The case of Pakistan is interesting since the country's recent trade policy has reverted to a protectionist path since the mid-2000s and trade performance is stagnating, as indicated by a decrease in its trade-to-gross domestic product ratio over the past decade and low levels of sophistication of exports. The main findings of the paper are the following. Like many other countries, Pakistan posts a high concentration of exports in the hands of a limited number of large exporters. The dominance of few exporters has increased over time and it seems associated with the changes in trade policy. Low rates of product innovation and experimentation and a low ability of the Pakistani export sector to enter into new higher growth sectors are other features emerging from the data. All in all...

The Role of Trade Costs in Global Production Networks : Evidence from China’s Processing Trade Regime

Ma, Alyson C.; Van Assche, Ari
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.74%
In a seminal contribution, Yi (2003) has shown that vertically specialized trade should be more sensitive to changes in trade costs than regular trade. Yet empirical evidence of this remains remarkably scant. This paper uses data from China's processing trade regime to analyze the role of trade costs on trade within global production networks (GPNs). Under this regime, firms are granted duty exemptions on imported inputs as long as they are used solely for export purposes. As a result, the data provide information on trade between three sequential nodes of a global supply chain: the location of input production, the location of processing (in China) and the location of further consumption. This makes it possible to examine the role of both trade costs related to the import of inputs (upstream trade costs) and trade costs related to the export of final goods (downstream trade costs) on intra-GPN trade. The authors show that intra-GPN trade differs from regular trade in that it not only depends on downstream trade costs...

Human Capital, Trade Liberalization, and Income Risk

Krebs, Tom; Krishna, Pravin; Maloney, William
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.78%
Using data from Mexico, the authors study empirically the link between trade policy and individual income risk and the extent to which this varies across workers of different human capital (education) levels. They use longitudinal income data on workers to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in different manufacturing sectors in Mexico between 1987 and 1998, a period in which the Mexican economy experienced substantial changes in trade policy. In a second step, they use the variations in trade policy across different sectors and over time to estimate the link between trade policy and income risk for workers of varying education levels. The authors' findings are as follows. The level of openness of an economy is not found to be related to income risk for workers of any type. Furthermore, changes in trade policy (that is, trade policy reforms) are not found to have any effect on the risk to income faced by workers with either low or high levels of human capital. But workers with intermediate levels of human capital are found to experience a statistically and economically significant increase in income risk immediately following liberalization of trade. The findings thus point to an interesting non-monotonicity in the interaction between human capital...

What Drives Short-Run Labor Market Volatility in Offshoring Industries? Evidence from Northern Mexico during 2007–2009

Kaplan, David S.; Lederman, Daniel; Robertson, Raymond
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.76%
Recent research shows that employment in Mexico's offshoring maquiladora industries is twice as volatile as employment in their U.S. industry counterparts. The analyses in this paper use data from Mexico's social security records and U.S. customs between the first quarter of 2007 and the last quarter of 2009 to identify four channels through which economic shocks emanating from the United States were amplified when transmitted into Mexico's offshoring labor market of Northern Mexico. First, employment and imports within industries are complements, which is consistent with imports being used as inputs for the assembly of exportable goods within industries. That is, when imports fell during the crisis, employment in Mexico was reduced rather than protected by the fall of imports. Second, contrary to other studies, employment is more responsive than wages to trade shocks. Third, fluctuations in Mexico-U.S. trade were associated with changes in the composition of employment, with the skill level of workers rising during downturns and falling during upswings. This implies that the correlation between average wages and trade shocks is partly driven by labor-force compositional effects, which may obscure individual-worker wage flexibility. Fourth...

Vietnam : Export Performance in 1999 and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.74%
Changes in trade policies have been an essential component of the "doi moi" policy implemented by the Government of Vietnam since 1986. Over the years, most export quotas have been lifted and export taxes have been reduced to generally low levels. In addition, export activities by the private sector (both domestic and foreign) have been increasingly encouraged, thus breaking the trade monopoly of a small number of state-owned enterprises. These reforms -together with sound macroeconomic management- have led to a rapid export and import growth. The structure of exports also changed. During the 1990s, Vietnam started to exploit its comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufactures. Export growth was led by light manufactures, dominated by the garment and footwear sectors. Also remarkable, despite the shrinking share of agricultural goods in total exports, was the strong rise in the volume of rice exports. In only few years Vietnam turned from being a net rice importer into the world's second largest exporter. The Asian crisis has interrupted Vietnam's trade expansion. In 1998...

Trade and the East Asian Crisis; El comercio y la crisis de Asia oriental

Hoekman, Bernard; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.76%
This economic policy note addresses the issue of the East Asian financial crisis, suggesting that recent trade socks, were both a cause and a consequence of this crisis. It further suggests that, though it appears that these trade shocks were largely cyclical in nature, structural changes and policy choices may also have played a role. Dramatic trade changes in the region took place, where the region's overall imports dropped by 4 percent, with a significant 18 percent drop in imports from Japan. Export growth is considered to be a major prospect for short-term economic expansion in the region, depending in part on the composition and pattern of trade flows. The note also suggests that policy implications should be considered, such as heavy investments in education and skills upgrading. Furthermore, macroeconomic policies will be required to capitalize on the initial boost to competitiveness, provided by recent devaluations in the region. The inevitable risk of adjustment pressures in OECD markets exists, though raising barriers should be avoided...