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Reavaliando a relação entre independência do Banco Central e custos de desinflação: uma análise de viés de seleção; Reassessing the relationship between Central Bank independence and disinflation costs: a selection bias analysis

Passos, Danilo José Rodrigues
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 22/11/2012 PT
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66.13%
A literatura empírica que buscou investigar os efeitos da independência do banco central sobre os custos de desinflação encontra, quase que em sua totalidade, uma relação positiva entre estas duas variáveis, indicando que episódios desinflacionários mais custosos estão relacionados a países com bancos centrais mais independentes, contrariando a teoria novo clássica, que atribui um prêmio para a credibilidade da política monetária em termos de custos de desinflação. No entanto, a maioria desses trabalhos limita-se à utilização de uma amostra que compreende apenas países desenvolvidos durante o período 1960-1990. Além disso, a metodologia econométrica freqüentemente utilizada é a de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, método incapaz de controlar para a existência de algum tipo de endogeneidade ou viés de seleção na relação de interesse. Dessa forma, o presente trabalho busca complementar a literatura existente de duas formas: (1) utilizando uma amostra mais ampla, que inclua não somente países em desenvolvimento, mas também episódios desinflacionários mais recentes; e (2) empregando os métodos baseados em \textit{propensity score}, metodologia econométrica capaz de controlar para a possível existência de viés de seleção na relação entre independência do banco central e custos de desinflação. Algumas conclusões importantes são obtidas. Primeiramente...

The external impacts of Central Bank independence

Griffin,Carroll Howard
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2010 EN
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The term "central bank independence" (or abbreviated, CBI) can be broadly defined as the degree of freedom of the central bank to pursue monetary policy without interference from political considerations. The idea of central bank independence has been widely accepted over the last several decades by many countries around the world, both developed and developing. Since being first written about academically in the late 1980s, many countries have come to adopt this policy and many governments have come to recognize this as standard procedure. As such, many countries around the world granted autonomy to their central banks during the 1980s and 1990s. The majority of past studies have examined primarily the impact of central bank independence on inflation. however, the additional theoretical benefits are much more far reaching, the result of a more stable and prosperous macroeconomic environment. Additionally, there is only now sufficient data to empirically determine whether many of these claims are true. This study examines central bank independence in developing countries of Latin America and Asia as well as selected developed countries to determine what actual impact an autonomous central bank has had. It also examines such phenomena as financial crises (including the current global crisis of 2008-2009)...

Bank Deleveraging : Causes, Channels, and Consequences for Emerging Market and Developing Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, İnci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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Just before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, policymakers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. Overall, credit conditions across Europe deteriorated markedly in late 2011. Spillover effects are being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive consequences for credit conditions in emerging markets, particularly in emerging Europe. Significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank was a "game changer," at least in the short term, as it helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. However, the extent, speed, and impact of European bank deleveraging remain highly dependent on the evolution of economic growth and market conditions, which in turn are guided by the ultimate impact of European Central Bank liquidity support, resolution of the sovereign debt crisis within the Euro Area, and the ability of the European rescue fund to provide an effective firewall against contagion.

Payments and Securities Clearance and Settlement Systems in Bolivia

Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos; World Bank
Fonte: Mexico, D.F.: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos and the World Bank Publicador: Mexico, D.F.: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos and the World Bank
EN_US
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This report covers the Western Hemisphere payments and securities settlement forum center for Latin American monetary studies and focuses on several issues. The first section covers economic and financial markets overview of Belarus. This section covers the financial sector, capital markets, and major trends in the payments systems. The second section covers institutional aspects such as the general legal framework, role of financial institutions, market structure and regulation, and the role of the securities regulatory. The third section covers the payment media used by non financial entities. The fourth section describes payments, such as inter-bank exchanges and settlement circuits. The fifth section touches on securities, market structure and trading. While the sixth and seventh section cover the topic of settlement circuits for government and corporate securities. The report concludes with discussion on the role of the central bank in clearance and settlement systems and well as the supervision of such systems.

How to Move the Exchange Rate If You Must : The Diverse Practice of Foreign Exchange Intervention by Central Banks and a Proposal for Doing It Better

Basu, Kaushik; Varoudakis, Aristomene
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The paper is about the art of exchange rate management by central banks. It begins by reviewing the diversity of objectives and practices of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. Central banks typically exercise discretion in determining when and to what extent to intervene. Some central banks use publicly declared rules of intervention, with the aim of increasing visibility and strengthening the signaling channel of policy. There is tentative evidence that the volatility of foreign exchange reserves is comparatively lower in emerging market economies where central banks follow some form of rules-based foreign exchange intervention. The paper goes on to argue that when the foreign exchange market includes some large strategic participants, the central bank can achieve superior outcomes if intervention takes the form of a rule, or "schedule," indicating commitments to buying and selling different quantities of foreign currency conditional on the exchange rate. Exchange rate management and reserve management can then be treated as two independent objectives by the central bank. In line with the stylized facts reviewed...

Financial Sector Assessment Program : Malaysia - Assessment of Observance of the CPSS-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.14%
The present document is the assessment of systemically important financial market infrastructures in Malaysia based on the Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) and International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO) Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMIs). The assessment was conducted in the context of field missions of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) to Malaysia in July 2012. The information used in the assessment included all relevant laws, rules and procedures governing the systems, material available on these FMIs in the public domain and from the central bank and the securities commission. The Capital Market and Services Act 2007 (CMSA) provides the overall framework for operation of various entities in the security markets like stock exchange, clearing houses and trade repositories. The Securities Industry (Central Depositories) Act 1991 (SICDA) provides the overall regulatory framework for depositories and immobilization of securities in approved depositories. The CMSA requires the licensed exchanges and clearing houses to prioritize public interest...

Stock Market Responses to Bank Restructuring Policies during the East Asian Crisis

Klingebiel, Daniela; Kroszner, Randy; Laeven, Luc; van Oijen, Pieter
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The East Asian crisis began in Thailand in mid-1997 when an ailing financial sector, a slowdown in exports, and large increases in central bank credit to weak financial institutions, triggered a run on the baht. Then the crisis spread to other countries in the region, as common vulnerabilities, and revaluations of risk in emerging markets, triggered large capital flows. To better understand the impact of different policy responses to financial crises, the authors investigate how stock markets in East Asian countries reacted to the initial policy announcements of bank, and financial restructuring - especially how banking, and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, fared in response to announcements of different restructuring measures. They find that prices of bank stocks, responded positively to announcements about government guarantees of bank liabilities. Non-financial companies gained in value when guarantees were announced, but their stock prices were negatively affected by announcements favoring public re-capitalization schemes...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Armenia

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The World Bank mission team comprised of Memes/ Messrs. Lilia Razlog (mission lead, PRMED, WB), Antonio Velandia (FABDM) and Ying Li (Consultant, WB), joined by Juan Carlos Vilanova, Debt Relief International (DRI), who conducted a Government Debt Management performance Assessment (DeMPA) evaluation for Republic of Armenia. At the request of the authorities, the mission took place from October 29 to November 8, 2013. The team worked closely with the main counterparts at the Ministry of Finance (MoF), NASDAQ-OMX, Chamber of Control (CoC), as well as the officials from the other government agencies and the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA). The mission team benefited from excellent cooperation of the Public Debt Management Department (PDMD) of the Ministry of Finance, other line departments of the MoF, CBA, Ministry of Justice, and other government and private partners.

The Banking and Financial Sector of Lao PDR : Financial Sector Note

Asian Development Bank; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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During the second half of the 1980s, Lao PDR embarked on an ambitious program of economic reforms, called the New Economic Mechanism, whose main purpose was to gradually transform its centrally-planned economy into a market-oriented economy. The initial reform momentum lasted about one decade. The far-reaching reform program encompassed many critical components including: (a) promotion of private production through improved incentives; (b) institutional infrastructure to improve market economy operations; (c) the strengthening of Lao comparative advantages through trade liberalization and further specialization; and (d) the establishment of price stability through macroeconomic policy measures. The systemic changes introduced in Lao PDR have contributed to a significant transformation of the country s economic system, away from a rigorously centrally-planned economy and towards a form of market economy based on private ownership. The percentage of poor declined based on the national poverty line from 45 to 39 percent between 1992-93 and 1997-982. But the percentage of very poor did not decline and remained at slightly above 30 percent evidencing the need for even broader and faster growth. Moreover...

Placing Bank Supervision in the Central Bank

Melecky, Martin; Podpiera, Anca Maria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
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Although keeping bank supervision independent from macroprudential supervision may ensure more checks and balances, placing bank supervision in the central bank could exploit synergies with macroprudential supervision. This paper studies whether placing microprudential supervision of banks, typically the systemic part of the financial system, under the same roof as financial stability policy, typically entrusted to the central bank, can improve financial stability. Specifically, the paper analyzes whether having bank supervision in the central bank mitigated the likelihood of banking crises during 2007–12. The analysis conditions on crisis indicators commonly found in the early-warning models of banking crises, the quality of microprudential supervision, and the quality of macroprudential supervision. The authors find that countries with deeper financial markets and those undergoing rapid financial deepening can better foster financial stability when they put bank supervision in the central bank.

Resolving Bank Failures in Argentina

de la Torre, Augusto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Policies and procedures to resolve bank failures have evolved significantly in Argentina since the introduction of currency convertibility in 1991, and particularly in reaction to the 1995 tequila crisis, which exposed the inadequacy of the bank exit framework in place then. The author reviews the institutional changes introduced in Argentina in 1995 to handle bank failures more effectively, particularly the creation of the deposit guarantee scheme and the procedural framework for resolving bank failures, embedded in Article 35 of the Financial Institutions Law. This framework enables the Central Bank to carve out the assets and privileged liabilities of the failing bank and transfer them to sound banks, thereby sending only a residual balance sheet to judicial liquidation. Subsequent refinements in the application of Article 35 procedures eventually led to current Argentine practice. The author examines this practice in detail by considering the handling of the recent failure of Banco Almafuerte. The author assesses a number of issues that arise from the Argentine model of bank failure resolution...

A historical analysis of central bank independence in Latin America: the Colombian experience, 1923-2008

Meisel, Adolfo; Barón, Juan D.
Fonte: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Laureano Figuerola Publicador: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Laureano Figuerola
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Publicado em /03/2010 ENG
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This paper explores the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in Latin America, using the experience of Colombia (1923-2008) as a case study. Since its creation, in 1923, Colombia’s central bank has undergone several reforms that have changed its objectives and degree of independence. Between 1923 and 1951, it was private and independent, with a legal commitment to price stability. In 1962, monetary responsibilities were divided between a government-dominated monetary board, in charge of monetary policies, and the central bank, which carried them out. In the early 1990s, the bank recovered its independence and its focus on price stability. Inflation varied substantially during these subperiods. Our analysis suggests that the central bank independence, combined with a commitment to price stability, renders the best results in terms of price stability.; Este documento explora la relación entre la independencia del banco central y los niveles de inflación en Latinoamérica, usando como estudio de caso la experiencia de Colombia (1923-2008). Desde su creación en 1923, la independencia y objetivos del banco central en Colombia han sido modificados substancialmente. Entre 1923 y 1951, el banco central fue privado e independiente...

The Experience with Macro-Prudential Policies of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in Response to the Global Financial Crisis

Kenc, Turalay; Turhan, M. Ibrahim; Yildirim, Onur
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
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This brief country case study on Turkey aims to summarize the fundamental developments in the banking sector, which represents almost 90 percent of the financial sector in the country. The brief has two parts. The first covers the 2001 financial crisis and the developments until end of 2007, the year before the global financial crisis of 2008 started. The second part focuses on the macro-prudential policies applied by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in response to the global financial crisis in three phases: (i) full liquidity support after Lehman Brothers' collapse (September 2008), (ii) the exit strategy (April 2010), and (iii) the new policy mix (final quarter of 2010).

Financial Sector Assessment Program : Nigeria - Banking Cross-Border Issues

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.12%
The introduction of new much higher minimum capital requirements and the subsequent banking sector consolidation created a platform for Nigerian banks to expand within the region and more globally. After capitalization, several Nigerian banks found themselves with large amounts of capital while there was an environment of uncertainty about the situation in Nigeria in the aftermath of the 2009 Nigerian banking crisis. This together with new market expansion opportunities gave an impulse to a number of Nigerian banks to quickly expand within West and Central Africa, as well as more globally. The global crisis itself provided Nigerian banks with opportunities to expand within Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). With Nigerian banks' presence in many countries in the region and more globally, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needed to overhaul its traditional supervisory practices and embark on rigorous supervision of its banks on a consolidated basis taking into account all their subsidiaries and branches abroad-a task with which even advanced supervisors still struggle. This note focuses on issues of cross-border coordination and provides policy recommendations that could be taken into consideration by the CBN. Section two provides a brief description of the expansion and cross-border liquidity flows of some Nigerian banks. Section three focuses on issues related to supervisory cross-border coordination. Section four offers some recommendations. Several Nigerian banks have expanded abroad...

European Bank Deleveraging : Implications for Emerging Market Countries

Feyen, Erik; Kibuuka, Katie; Ötker-Robe, Inci
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
Just before the 2008-9 global financial crises, policy makers were concerned about the rapid growth of bank credit, particularly in Europe; now, worry centers on a potential global credit crunch led by European banking institutions. While recognizing that concrete evidence is limited by significant data gaps and lags, this note discusses the dynamics of European bank deleveraging and possible implications for emerging market economies (EMEs). Overall, the information available as of early 2012 shows a marked deterioration of credit conditions across Europe. Data also suggest that spillover effects are already being felt around the globe and imply significant channels through which deleveraging could have disruptive short and long-term consequences for credit conditions in EMEs, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, the significant liquidity support provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) since December may be a 'game changer,' at least in the short term, because it has helped revive markets and limited the risk of disorderly deleveraging. The extent...

Bureaucratic Delegation and Political Institutions : When Are Independent Central Banks Irrelevent?

Keefer, Philip; Stasavage, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
The government's ability to credibly commit to policy announcements is critical to the successful implementation of economic policies as diverse as capital taxation and utilities regulation. One frequently advocated means of signaling credible commitment is to delegate authority to an agency that will not have an incentive to opportunistically change policies once the private sector has taken such steps as signing wage contracts or making irreversible investments. Delegating authority is suggested as a government strategy particularly for monetary policy. And existing work on the independence of central banks generally assumes that government decisions to delegate are irrevocable . But delegation - in monetary policy as elsewhere-is inevitably a political choice, and can be reversed, contend the authors. They develop a model of monetary policy that relaxes the assumption that monetary delegation is irreversible. Among the testable predictions of the model are these: A) The presence of an independent central bank should reduce inflation only in the presence of political checks and balances. This effect should be evident in both developing and industrial countries. B) Political actions to interfere with the central bank should be more apparent when there are few checks and balances. C) The effects of checks and balances should be more marked when political decisionmakers are more polarized. The authors test these predictions and find extensive empirical evidence to support each of the observable implications of their model: Central banks are associated with better inflation outcomes in the presence of checks and balances. The turnover of central bank governors is reduced when governors have tenure protection supported by political checks and balances. And the effect of checks and balances is enhanced in more polarized political environments.

Financial Dollarization and Central Bank Credibility

Cowan, Kevin; Do, Quy-Toan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Why do firms and banks hold foreign currency denominated liabilities? The authors argue that foreign currency debt, by altering the effect of a devaluation on output, has a disciplining effect when the Central Bank's objectives differ from the social optimum. However, under imperfect information, bad priors about the Central Bank induce excess dollarization of liabilities, which in turn limits the ability of the Central Bank to conduct an optimal monetary policy. In addition the economy may become stuck in a "dollarization trap" in which dollarized liabilities limit the ability of agents to learn the true type of the monetary authority. The model has clear-cut policy implications regarding the taxation of foreign currency liabilities as a way to encourage perfect information and avoid dollarization traps. Moreover, it reinforces the existing argument for Central Bank independence. Finally, the authors believe this model to be consistent with a growing empirical literature on the determinants of foreign currency liabilities and their relationships to Central Bank credibility.

World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2012, Volume 1 : Capturing New Sources of Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.12%
Growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific remained strong in 2011, although it slowed from its post-crisis peaks. Strong domestic demand offset weaker external demand from the United States and Western Europe. Looking ahead, the external environment is likely to remain weak. The best prospects for the region to maintain high rates of growth, job creation, and poverty reduction are through rebalancing towards domestic demand and investing in productivity increases and further international integration. The region remains vulnerable to the continued uncertainty in Europe through trade and financial linkages. Although last December's fiscal pact and liquidity support from the European Central Bank helped stabilize financial markets, recent political events and market developments point to continued challenges. Renewed market volatility and a further slowdown in European economies cannot be ruled out. The European Union (EU), along with the US and Japan, accounts for over 40 percent of the region's direct export shipments and an estimated 60 percent if intraregional trade linked to production networks is taken into account. A serious disruption in the EU would also have knock-on effects on East Asia's exports and growth by lowering growth in other regions...

The external impacts of Central Bank independence; Os impactos externos da independência dos Bancos Centrais

Griffin, Carroll Howard
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Escola de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/12/2010 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.19%
O termo "independência do banco central" (ou IBC) pode ser amplamente definido como o grau de liberdade que o banco central possui para seguir sua política monetária sem a interferência de considerações políticas. A ideia da independência do banco central foi aceita nas últimas décadas por muitos países ao redor do mundo, tanto desenvolvidos como em desenvolvimento. Desde a primeira literatura acadêmica a respeito no final dos anos 80, muitos países começaram a adotar essa política e muitos governos a reconheceram como padrão. Assim, muitos países ao redor do mundo concederam autonomia a seus bancos centrais nos anos 80 e 90. A maior parte dos estudos existentes investigou principalmente o impacto da independência do banco central na inflação. Porém, os benefícios teóricos adicionais vão muito além, resultado de um ambiente macroeconômico mais estável e próspero. Ademais, somente agora há dados suficientes para a determinação empírica da veracidade de muitas dessas alegações. Este estudo investiga a independência dos bancos centrais em países em desenvolvimento na América Latina e na Ásia, além de determinados países desenvolvidos, para determinar o real impacto de um banco central autônomo. Também examina fenômenos como crises financeiras (inclusive a crise global em curso no período 2008-2009)...

Comportamento da função do Banco Central do Brasil: Uma análise para o período do sistema de metas de inflação; Behavior of the Brazilian Central Bank reaction function: an analysis for the inflation targeting period

Schnorrenberger, Richard; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; Meurer, Roberto; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina
Fonte: UFSC Publicador: UFSC
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Artigo Avaliado pelos Pares Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/12/2013 POR
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http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-8085.2013v16n2p33A função de reação do Banco Central expressa as preferências da autoridade monetária em relação aos desvios da inflação à sua meta e ao hiato do produto. O presente trabalho investiga estas preferências e possíveis assimetrias nos objetivos do Banco Central do Brasil durante o período do sistema de metas para inflação, aplicando e estendendo o modelo de Clarida, Galí e Gertler (1999) com abordagem forward-looking. A econometria de séries temporais é empregada como principal ferramenta estatística para obtenção dos resultados. Os resultados indicam que o Banco Central do Brasil tem conduzido uma política monetária com preferências assimétricas em relação aos seus objetivos. O formulador de política monetária é mais sensível à estabilidade de preços, mas também se atenta aos movimentos do hiato do produto e suaviza intertemporalmente a taxa de juros de curto prazo. Ainda, a autoridade monetária reagiu com maior intensidade aos preços dos itens administrados nas gestões de Armínio Fraga e Henrique Meirelles e aos preços livres na gestão de Alexandre Tombini. Foram identificadas oscilações na função de reação em períodos de alta instabilidade financeira...