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Integração financeira internacional, fluxos internacionais de capitais e crescimento economico : teoria e evidencia; International financial integration, international capital flows and economic growth : theory and evidence

Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno
Fonte: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp Publicador: Biblioteca Digital da Unicamp
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/12/2008 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.52%
O objetivo desta Tese é realizar uma análise crítica da abordagem convencional acerca das relações entre Integração Financeira Internacional, fluxos internacionais de capitais e crescimento econômico nas economias nacionais. Pretende-se responder às seguintes questões: existe consenso relativo aos fundamentos teóricos suficiente para fundamentar a hipótese de que a Integração Financeira Internacional e os fluxos internacionais de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico? As evidências empíricas corroboram a hipótese de que a Integração Financeira Internacional e os fluxos internacionais de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico? A análise da literatura teórica, realizada no Capítulo 1, explicita a ausência de consenso teórico e a fragilidade dos fundamentos teóricos quanto à hipótese de que a Integração Financeira Internacional e os fluxos internacionais de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico. A análise da literatura empírica, realizada no Capítulo 2, mostra que as evidências existentes não são suficientes para corroborarem a hipótese de que a Integração Financeira Internacional e os fluxos internacionais de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico. Por fim, no Capítulo 3, faz-se uma ampla investigação econométrica acerca das relações entre Integração Financeira Internacional...

Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective

Caballero, Ricardo J.; Antras, Pol
Fonte: National Bureau of Economic Research Publicador: National Bureau of Economic Research
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.42%
The classical Heckscher-Ohlin-Mundell paradigm states that trade and capital mobility are substitutes, in the sense that trade integration reduces the incentives for capital to flow to capital-scarce countries. In this paper we show that in a world with heterogeneous financial development, the classic conclusion does not hold. In particular, in less financially developed economies (South), trade and capital mobility are complements. Within a dynamic framework, the complementarity carries over to (financial) capital flows. This interaction implies that deepening trade integration in South raises net capital inflows (or reduces net capital outflows). It also implies that, at the global level, protectionism may backfire if the goal is to rebalance capital flows, when these are already heading from South to North. Our perspective also has implications for the effects of trade integration on factor prices. In contrast to the Heckscher-Ohlin model, trade liberalization always decreases the wage-rental in South: an anti-Stolper-Samuelson result.; Economics

Gross Capital Flows : Dynamics and Crises

Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.62%
This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents -- gross capital flows -- over the business cycle and during financial crises. The authors show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical, with foreigners investing more in the country and domestic agents investing more abroad during expansions. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, that is, a reduction in both capital inflows by foreigners and capital outflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of shocks driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. The findings seem consistent with shocks that affect foreign and domestic agents asymmetrically, such as sovereign risk and asymmetric information.

Banking Flows and Financial Crisis : Financial Interconnectedness and Basel III Effects

Ghosh, Swati R.; Sugawara, Naotaka; Zalduendo, Juan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.61%
This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.

The Effect of Capital Flows Composition on Output Volatility

Federico, Pablo; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.5%
A large literature has argued that different types of capital flows have different consequences for macroeconomic stability. By distinguishing between foreign direct investment and portfolio and other investments, this paper studies the effects of the composition of capital inflows on output volatility. The paper develops a simple empirical model which, under certain conditions that hold in the data, yields three key testable implications. First, output volatility should depend positively on the volatilities of both foreign direct investment and portfolio and other inflows. Second, output volatility should be an increasing function of the correlation between both kinds of inflows. Third, output volatility should be a decreasing function of the share of foreign direct investment in total capital inflows, for low values of that share. The data provide strong support for all three implications, even after controlling for other factors that may influence output volatility, and after dealing with potential endogeneity problems. These findings call attention to the importance of taking into account the synchronization and composition of capital flows for output stabilization purposes...

Gross Capital Flows : Dynamics and Crises

Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents, dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domestic agents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchment in both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for different types of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent with crises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under the presence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

Capital Flows, Country Risk, and Contagion

Fiess, Norbert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.52%
It has been widely recognized that both country-specific and global factors matter in explaining capital flows. The author presents an empirical framework that disentangles the relative weight of country-specific and global factors in determining capital flows. In essence, his approach first separates the common component of emerging country spreads from their country-specific component. The pure country risk and global risk components are then used as explanatory variables to account for the observed pattern of capital flows using multivariate cointegration analyses. The author is able to identify the relative weight of global and country-specific factors in explaining capital flows to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela in the 1990s. When further decomposing country risk into its determinants, the author finds that within a small system it is possible to jointly identify the determinants of capital flows and sovereign bond spreads. We find that capital flows are driven by country risk and global factors ("contagion" and U.S. long-term interest rates)...

International Asset Allocations and Capital Flows : The Benchmark Effect

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
This paper studies channels through which well-known benchmark indexes impact asset allocations and capital flows across countries. The study uses unique monthly micro-level data of benchmark compositions and mutual fund investments during 1996-2012. Benchmarks have important effects on equity and bond mutual fund portfolios across funds with different degrees of activism. Benchmarks explain, on average, around 70 percent of country allocations and have significant impact even on active funds. Benchmark effects are important after controlling for industry, macroeconomic, and country-specific, time-varying effects. Reverse causality does not drive the results. Exogenous, pre-announced changes in benchmarks result in movements in asset allocations mostly when these changes are implemented (not when announced). By impacting country allocations, benchmarks affect capital flows across countries through direct and indirect channels, including contagion. They explain apparently counterintuitive movements in capital flows...

What Factors Appear to Drive Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries? And How Does Official Lending Respond?

Dasgupta, Dipak; Ratha, Dilip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.49%
The authors study what drives private capital flows to developing countries, as well as the apparent response of official lending for the years 1978-97. Econometric results reveal that non-foreign direct investment portfolio flows to a country tended to rise in response to: 1) An increase in the current account deficit. 2) A rise in foreign direct investment flows. 3) Higher per capita income. 4) Growth performance. Once those variables were accounted for, private flows did not seem to be influenced by location, and regional factors. In addition, private capital flows (whether foreign direct investment or not) seem to respond positively (with a one-year lag) to World Bank lending commitments. By far the most important determinant of official lending to a developing country, seems to be the external current account balance, or a change in international reserves in the country. Official flows - including World Bank lending - appear to have played a stabilizing (or counter-cyclical) role in response to the volatility of private capital flows...

Managing capital flows: a distortions approach

Wilson, Dominic
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 151371 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.38%
The East Asian financial crisis has highlighted the challenges that international capital movements pose for domestic economic management. Many of the conditions necessary to maximise the benefits and minimise the risks associated with international capital flows were violated in East Asian economies. In particular, a number of distortions encouraged capital to flow to the wrong investments and with insufficient attention to risk. For economies with open capital accounts, the policy priority must be to remove these kinds of distortions. Where this is not possible in the short term, other policies to influence the capital flows may be desirable.; no

Capital flows to East Asia: the facts

de Brouwer, Gordon
Fonte: Reserve Bank of Australia Publicador: Reserve Bank of Australia
Tipo: Parte de Livro Formato: 58244 bytes; 354 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.34%
With the passing of time, we now have a clearer story of what happened to capital flows in east Asia during the financial crisis. This paper briefly summarises the available data, drawing primarily on material published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It focuses first on the size and volatility of capital flows to and from emerging markets, and Asia in particular, and then examines the distribution of international bank lending by sector and country during the crisis. The paper concludes by assessing prospects for the return of capital inflows to Asia.; yes

Emissions trading, capital flows and the Kyoto Protocol

McKibbin, Warwick J; Ross, Martin T; Shackleton, Robert; Wilcoxen, Peter J
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 173477 bytes; 351 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.35%
We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.; no

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.56%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.48%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Should Capital Flows Be Regulated? A Look at the Issues and Policies

Islam, Roumeen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.47%
The author argues that externalities in financial markets, implicit and explicit guarantees on financial transactions, and information asymmetries in financial markets that may exacerbate contagion provide a rationale for a government role in managing the risk associated with cross-border capital flows. Governments can complement private sector risk management with measures that help deal with the volatility of capital flows. These measures include those that control the type and volume of capital flows and those that help investors make better investment decisions, and that may reduce herding behavior, such as better information provision. The main instruments that have been tried or recommended since the onset of the recent financial crises can be grouped in several categories. 1) Debt management: The composition, maturity structure, and level of external debt have played an important role in financial crises. High short-term debt relative to liquid assets has been found to be consistently correlated with financial crises in recent times. Governments can affect the level of debt (including private debt) and its composition...

Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints

Harrison, Ann E.; Love, Inessa; McMillan, Margaret S.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.53%
Firms often cite financing constraints as one of their primary obstacles to investment. Global capital flows, by bringing in scarce capital, may ease the financing constraints of host country firms. But if incoming foreign investors borrow heavily from domestic banks, foreign direct investment may exacerbate financing constraints by crowding host country firms out of domestic capital markets. Combining a unique cross-country firm-level panel with time-series data on restrictions on international transactions and capital flows, Harrison, Love, and McMillan find that different measures of global flows are associated with a reduction in firm-level financing constraints. First, the authors show that one type of capital inflow-foreign direct investment-is associated with a reduction in financing constraints. Second, they test whether restrictions on international transactions affects the financing constraints of firms. The results suggest that only one type of restriction-those on capital account transactions-negatively affects firms' financing constraints. The authors also show that multinational firms are not financially constrained and do not appear to be sensitive to the level of foreign direct investment. This implies that foreign direct investment eases financing constraints for non-multinational firms. Finally...

Net Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Shocks and Reserve Assets. The Case of Argentina (1994-2013); Flujos netos de capital, choques macroecon??micos y activos de reservas. El caso argentino (1994-2013)

Lanteri, Luis N.
Fonte: Universidad EAFIT Publicador: Universidad EAFIT
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; article; Art??culo Formato: application/pdf
SPA
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.39%
International reserves have been used as a source of protection against the vulnerability of the balance of payments, or alternatively, as an attempt to keep a competitive real exchange rate and to promote exports. This paper explores the correlation between the net capital flows and reserves. Similarly, the impact of some macroeconomic shocks on that variable is assessed. Estimates are carried out through both, the VEC (Vector Error Correction) models and quarterly data of the Argentine economy for the period 1994-2013. Results show a negative correlation between international reserves and net capital flows (reserve accumulation through current account surpluses). At the same time, the expansionary fiscal policies and the continuing and widespread price increases would adversely affect the reserves.; Las reservas internacionales han sido empleadas como una fuente de protecci??n contra la vulnerabilidad de la balanza de pagos, o alternativamente, para intentar mantener un tipo de cambio real competitivo y promover las exportaciones. En este trabajo se analiza la correlaci??n existente entre los flujos netos de capital y las reservas y se eval??a el efecto de algunos choques macroecon??micos en dicha variable. Las estimaciones se realizan con modelos de VEC (modelo de correcci??n de errores) y datos trimestrales de la econom??a argentina...

Foreign portfolio capital flows and stock returns: a study of Brazilian listed firms; Foreign portfolio capital flows and stock returns: a study of Brazilian listed firms

Loncan, Tiago; Caldeira, João Frois
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 19/11/2015 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
This study analyzed the effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on stock returns of Brazilian listed firms through a 6-factors APT model, in which an additional risk factor for foreign portfolio capital flows was included. First, an aggregate analysis was conducted.The partial effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on the IBOVESPA index’s returns was statistically significant and positive. Next, a disaggregate analysis was also implemented, in which portfolios of stocks were sorted by sector of economic activity, level of risk and level of corporate governance. Foreign portfolio capitals caused increases in returns especially for sectors related to commodities, industry and cyclical consumption. For the portfolios sorted by risk (in which the stocks’ betas were used as a risk parameter for sorting), foreign capitals increased the returns of mid-high and high beta portfolios, but decreased the returns of low and low-mid beta portfolios. For corporate governance portfolios, the firms listed on the Novo Mercado segment (according to BMF&Bovespa criteria) experienced a statistically significant revaluation effect. Overall, the results of the study provide support to the revaluation effect hypothesis.; This study analyzed the effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on stock returns of Brazilian listed firms through a 6-factors APT model...

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in Developing Countries; Fluxos de Capitais e Crescimento Econômico nos Países em Desenvolvimento

Damasceno, Aderbal Oliveira
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/01/2014 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.45%
This paper develops an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital flows and economic growth in developing countries. Empirical evidence suggest: i) there is evidence that external savings mitigates economic growth; ii) there is no evidence that capital flows foster economic growth; iii) there is no evidence that external saving and capital flows effects on the economic growth depend on the levels of institutional development, financial development, trade openness, macroeconomic stability and human capital. One possible explanation for these results is the possibility of capital flows to developing countries lead to macroeconomic instability, financial crises and currency appreciation, with adverse effects on economic growth.; Esse trabalho desenvolve uma análise empírica sobre as relações entre fluxos de capitais e crescimento econômico nos países em desenvolvimento. Os resultados sugerem: i) há evidências de que a poupança externa desestimula o crescimento econômico; ii) não há evidências de que os fluxos de capitais estimulam o crescimento econômico; iii) não existem evidências de que os efeitos da poupança externa e dos fluxos de capitais sobre o crescimento econômico dependem dos níveis de desenvolvimento institucional...

The impact of financial market imperfections on trade and capital flows

Bougheas,Spiros; Falvey,Rod
Fonte: Universidad de Guadalajara Publicador: Universidad de Guadalajara
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.35%
We introduce financial frictions in a two sector model of international trade with heterogeneous agents. The level of specialization in the economy (economic development) depends on the quality of financial institutions. Underdeveloped financial markets prohibit an economy to specialize in sectors where finance is important. Capital flows and international trade are complements when countries differ in the degree of development of their financial sectors. Capital flows to countries with more robust financial institutions which in turn allow their economies to develop sectors that are financially dependent.