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Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU

Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe
Fonte: ISEG – Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG – Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2009 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.

Federal Budget Outlook -- A Report to the SOMC

Levy, Mickey D.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Projections of the FY1984 budget deficit have been revised downward, to $179.7 billion by the Administration...Any optimism about these forecasts of declining deficits, however, must be tempered. Both forecasts assume the enactment of substantial deficit-cutting legislation, and such action may not be politically feasible, at least on the short-term horizon. Also, although there is much uncertainty about the economic outlook, some of the assumptions underlying these projected budget outcomes may be too optimistic. Consequently, budget deficits may be higher than these projections indicate.

How Should the Fed Respond to Large Fiscal Deficits?

McCallum, Bennett T.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
It is not easy to predict accurately (or even approximately) the future path of Federal budget deficits, as is well-illustrated by the predictions made a few year ago that ongoing surpluses would be so large that problems would arise from the lack of short-term federal debt! Nevertheless, it does seem likely that the federal budget will record quite large deficits over the next several years.1 Accordingly, it is natural to ask how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy should respond to this situation. There is no specific evidence that the Fed currently intends to respond in any particular way, although Chairman Greenspan’s comments on the prospective deficits have been highly prominent. But in any case, there are repeated calls from important members of the economics profession for greater coordination of monetary and fiscal policies.

How Do Governments Respond after Catastrophes? Natural-Disaster Shocks and the Fiscal Stance

Melecky, Martin; Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Natural disasters could constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for reconstruction and relief expenses. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model to systematically estimate the impact of geological, climatic, and other types of natural disasters on government expenditures and revenues using annual data for high and middle-income countries over 1975-2008. The authors find that, on average budget, deficits increase only after climatic disasters, but for lower-middle-income countries, the increase in deficits is widespread across all events. Disasters do not lead to larger deficit increases or larger output declines in countries with higher initial government debt. Countries with higher financial development suffer smaller real consequences from disasters, but deficits expand further in these countries. Disasters in countries with high insurance penetration also have smaller real consequences but do not result in deficit expansions. From an ex-post perspective...

The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account

Kraay, Aart; Ventura, Jaume
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.46%
Over the past decade the United States has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming U.S. stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing U.S. government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is that stock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. The authors challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the "dot-com" bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the "Bush" deficits). The "benevolent" view holds that a change in investor sentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The "cynical" view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. The authors discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the U.S. economy and...

The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis?

Lin, Justin Yifu; Treichel, Volker
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries...

Population Age Structure and the Budget Deficit

Chen, Derek H. C.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.61%
The author focuses on the effects of age structure changes on the size of budget deficits of national governments. More specifically, he determines whether differences in age structure can account for the observed differences in budget deficits across countries as well as across time. By way of an extension of the untested theory of negative bequest motives advocated by Cukierman and Meltzer (1989), the author argues that the commonly accepted notion that population aging tends to increase the budget deficits of economies is theoretically consistent. However, preliminary results from country and time fixed-effects panel regressions, estimated from 1975 to 1992 over 55 industrial and developing countries, indicate statistical evidence for this postulation is present only in the developing countries but not in the industrial countries.

Intertemporal Excess Burden, Bequest Motives, and the Budget Deficit

Chen, Derek Hung Chiat
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.8%
The author aims to empirically determine the significant factors that affect the levels of budget deficits of central governments across time and across countries. He empirically tests two prominent theories of budget deficits-the Barro (1979) tax-smoothing approach, and the still-untested theory of negative bequest motives advocated by Cukierman and Meltzer (1989). The author uses econometric techniques including fixed-effects (both country and time) panel regressions spanning 87 countries over the period 1975 to 1992, and the Griliches treatment of missing data. The author finds relatively stronger statistical support for the tax-smoothing approach among developing countries but not in industrial countries. The existence of empirical evidence supporting the theory of negative bequest motives is indeterminate. The author also conducted post-regression analyses to assess the proportion of observed differences in budget deficits the factors were actually able to explain. These reveal that both theories are generally weak in accounting for inter-temporal changes in budget deficit shares for both industrial and developing countries. The theories performed significantly better in accounting for cross-section differences. The author has many contributions to the literature. First...

Credit Ratings and Fiscal Responsibility

Hanusch, Marek; Vaaler, Paul
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.63%
The authors build on the findings from an earlier analysis, adding to the evidence base for the notion that credit rating agencies contribute to fiscal sustainability. To do so, the authors focus on election periods when political pressures for fiscal expansions are heightened. The literature on political budget cycles documents the tendency for budget deficits to increase in election years as governments attempt to appear economically competent by strategically providing additional publicly financed goods or services, or by cutting taxes. A rating downgrade, however, signals the opposite of competence as it implies an increase in the probability of sovereign default. Since credit ratings are widely observed - by financial markets as well as voters - they in effect serve as a disciplining device for fiscal policy not to submit to short-term spending pressures, thus keeping it responsible. The authors find that: (1) governments going into an election year immediately after a rating downgrade are 27 percentage points more likely to lose at the polls; and (2) governments going into an election year with a negative rating outlook (indicating a higher likelihood of a near-term downgrade) run smaller budget deficits compared to cases with positive or stable outlooks. Ratings act like fiscal rules disciplining governments when they are more vulnerable to political pressures on the budget - as opposed to fiscal policies supporting longer-term economic growth and development objectives.

Structural reforms and budget deficits in a monetary union: a strategic approach

Campoy, Juan Cristobal; Negrete Mediavilla, Juan Carlos
Fonte: Universidade de Múrcia Publicador: Universidade de Múrcia
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.4%
This paper explores the interrelations between budget deficits and structural reforms in a monetary union. The analysis considers the international spillovers generated by both policies. We show that efforts to achieve fiscal policy coordination within the Eurozone reduce member countries’ incentives to carry out much-needed structural reforms. As a consequence, this cooperation can turn out to be welfare-reducting if it not extended to the implementation of structural reforms.

France, Germany, Greece and the United Kingdom an analysis and comparison of budget deficits and defense spending

Schoettelndreyer, Friedrich.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: xvii, 61 p. ;
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.69%
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.; This thesis documents findings on the relationship of government budget deficits and defense spending for France, Germany, Greece, and the United Kingdom in detail and for NATO and OECD country collectives. The thesis topic is relevant, as many European countries are justifying their recent cuts in defense spending with high government budget deficits. The author looked at different data sources and metrics to graphically analyze the developments in government budget deficits and defense expenditures for the selected countries over a fifteen-year period and statistically analyze possible interactions between lagged budget deficits and defense expenditures for NATO and OECD country collectives. Six regression models were developed and applied to the country collectives with different time periods, from 1975 to 2009. A fixed effects regression analysis was used to determine the significance levels and the standard errors of the independent variables. The research method consisted of four activities: review of related research, analysis of government budget spending levels, analysis of defense spending levels and graphical and statistical analysis of government budget deficit and defense spending relationship. The literature survey focused on data research...

Uganda Economic Update, March 2014 : Are You Being Served?

World Bank
Fonte: Kampala Publicador: Kampala
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.6%
This is the third edition of the Uganda Economic Update series. The first part of this update provides a general overview on the state of Uganda's economy. Then the second part offers an examination of an economic topic of special interest and high relevance for the country, looking at how to improve service delivery by district governments. In 2013 Uganda managed to sustain macroeconomic stability and contain a short-lived uptick in inflation caused by fluctuations in regional food prices. This demonstrates the ability of the country's authorities to formulate and implement sound macroeconomic policies, and lays the foundation for continued achievement of economic growth rates in the range of 6-7 percent. The implementation of the large public infrastructure projects planned for the next several years should also contribute to growth. However, it will be as important as ever to keep budget deficits under control and to make sure that increased focus on infrastructure does not slow down progress in social outcomes. While healthy and educated population is critical for achieving Vision 2040...

Fiscal Deficits, Monetary Reform, and Inflation Stabilization in Romania

Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
Unsustainable fiscal deficits were the chief reason for the inflation that has persisted in Eastern Europe since 1989. Deficits need to be cut back, but by how much for a given inflation target? The authors develop a simple framework for debt, the deficit, and inflation to study the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy in Romania's economy. This framework can be used to 1) determine the financeable deficit and the required deficit reduction for a given rate of output growth, inflation rate, and target for debt-output ratios, and 2) find the rate, and target for which no fiscal adjustment is needed. They use this framework to assess consistency between inflation, monetary reform, and fiscal policy in Romania. Many of the issues in Romania are similar to those in other countries. But Romania is an interesting case because of its history of unsuccessful stabilization attempts. The authors' results suggest that fiscal problems during 1992-94 were masked by shifting government expenses to the books of the National Bank of Romania so that the government deficit did not fully reflect public spending. In addition...

Performance-Informed Budgeting in the U.S. National Government : An Evolutionary Approach and a Work in Progress

Joyce, Philip G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
The United States, at the national level of government, has been trying to identify stronger links between performance and funding for at least 50 years. The most recent two presidents had fundamentally different approaches to performance-based reforms. The administration of George W. Bush embraced a top-down, comprehensive approach to performance, embodied by the President's Management Agenda and the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART). The Obama administration has delegated more of the agenda to the agencies and has abandoned the PART in favor of a more in-depth, targeted approach to evaluation. Continuing challenges in the United States include creating incentives for focusing on the long term rather than the short term, making expanded use of performance information for budget decision making, and simultaneously focusing on performance improvement and reducing unsustainable budget deficits.

A New Data Tool to BOOST Public Spending Efficiency; Un nou instrument pentru date, BOOST, util pentru eficientizarea cheltuielilor publice

Kheyfets, Igor; Mastruzzi, Massimo; Merotto, Dino; Sondergaard, Lars
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
The BOOST data tool makes it easy to analyze how the allocation and use of public expenditure can be made more efficient. BOOST makes detailed public spending data, including data on sub-national spending, more open and accessible than ever before. The global financial crisis has prompted many governments to seek efficiency savings in order to reduce budget deficits and restore medium-term structural balance without harming long-term growth prospects or service quality. To reap savings from inefficiencies, governments must be able to identify such inefficiencies and examine their root causes. One way of doing so is through analytical work that sheds light on where in the budget more can be done with less the process starts by gathering detailed government expenditure data directly from a country's treasury system. By requesting raw data at the most disaggregated level available, the resulting BOOST database takes advantage of the full breadth and depth of the country's budget classification system. The data on expenditures...

Papua Public Expenditure Analysis : Overview Report, Regional Finance and Service Delivery in Indonesia's Most Remote Region; Analisis pengeluaran publik Papua - sebuah tinjauan umum : keuangan daerah dan pelayanan publik pada wlayah tertinggal di Indonesia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
The region of Papua occupies a special place in Indonesia. It is the country's easternmost, largest and most sparsely populated region. Ever since its integration into Indonesia in 1969 Papua has been troubled by separatist movements and social unrest. Following Indonesia's transition towards democracy and decentralization in the late 1990s, the Special Autonomy Law for Papua was passed in 2001. This was aimed at solving the ongoing conflict and accelerating the economic development of the region. The special autonomy status carried with it an increased flow of resources to Papua. While this boost in fiscal resources is important in helping Papua "catch up", more attention needs to be paid to the quality and efficiency of public expenditure management. As history shows, economic growth and fiscal wealth alone will not be enough to reduce poverty and boost development outcomes in Papua. The region has experienced an average annual GDP growth of close to ten percent for the last fifteen years, and has had a substantial amount of revenues to spend. This stands in stark contrast to Papua's consistent underperformance in fighting poverty and raising human development outcomes: forty percent of Papuans still live below the poverty line, more than double the national average. One third of Papua's children do not go to school. Nine out of ten villages do not have basic health services with a health center...

Mauritania : Improving Budget Management to Promote Sustainable Development and Reduce Poverty, Public Expenditure Review Update; Mauritanie - Ameliorer la gestion budgetaire pour promouvoir une croissance durable et reduire la pauvrete : revue des depenses publiques actualisee

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
The Public Expenditure Review (PER) has provided a basis for analysis and action under the Public Sector Capacity Building Program(PRECASP), one of components is related to the improvement of public finance management and is expected to support the implementation of the measures proposed in this document. These analyses deal with issues closely related to this review, including (i) the problems faced by the financial sector and their impact on public finances; (ii) the issue of transparency with regards to the management of oil revenues, and (iii) medium-term and long-term macroeconomic projections that determine the prospects for growth and for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Its objectives are to identify ways to improve public financial management in the sector and to alleviate the constraints on agriculture development, with a view to increasing productivity and reducing poverty in rural areas. Moreover, the PRECASP will finance expenditure reviews in priority sectors. Oil-related research...

Global Stock-Take of Social Accountability Initiatives for Budget Transparency and Monitoring : Key Challenges and Lessons Learned

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Knowledge Economy Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Budgets are key documents that lay out a government's economic priorities in terms of policies and programs. Budget transparency refers to the extent and ease with which citizens can access information about and provide feedback on government revenues, allocations, and expenditures. Budget monitoring entails using such information to analyze, critique, and track government finances in order to provide this feedback. Budget transparency is a prerequisite for public participation and accountability, which are instrumental for a democratic and legitimate budget process. Both budget transparency and monitoring efforts also help remove institutional bottlenecks that result in delayed budget allocations, thereby jeopardizing the delivery of vital services to people. Even though they have a far-reaching impact on the lives of people, opening up budgets beyond the exclusive domain of policy makers and administrators is a relatively recent phenomenon that has gained momentum in the last two decades. The stock taking exercise illustrates the range of mechanisms involved in Budget Transparency and Monitoring (BT&M) in different contexts and demonstrates significant promise of influencing governance processes and outcomes. Finally...

Federal Politics and Budget Deficits : Evidence from the States of India

Khemani, Stuti
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.63%
This paper tests two predictions implied by models of the common-pool game in federations where subnational governments are more likely to have higher deficits because they do not internalize the macroeconomic effects of fiscal profligacy. The first is that subnational governments that belong to the same political party as the central government have lower spending and deficits because they are more likely to be influenced to internalize the macroeconomic effects of additional local spending; and the second is that subnational governments that are more dependent on intergovernmental transfers have higher spending and deficits. We find that in 15 major states of India over the period 1972-1995, states in fact have substantially higher spending and deficits (higher by about 10 percent of the sample average) when their government belongs to the same party as that governing at the center; and that intergovernmental grants tend to have a counter-intuitive negative effect on spending and deficits. The additional deficit of affiliated states is financed almost entirely by additional loans from the central government (as opposed to the market) leading to our interpretation that similar political considerations influence the distribution of deficits across states as they do other intergovernmental grants. We argue that the evidence from India...

The Quality of Budget Execution and Its Correlates

Addison, Douglas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.56%
What determines the quality of budget execution around the world, measured in terms of a government's ability to accurately hit its own revenue and expenditure targets? The answers could be relevant to the topics of macroeconomic stability, national development, public service delivery, and political reputation. This paper takes a step toward finding answers through the exploration of a new database of budgets and budget outcomes and potential cross-country correlates of budget execution in levels and in composition. Few countries within the data sample execute their budgets well, in levels or in composition. Expenditure deviations are positively but rather loosely correlated with revenue deviations. Within this broad tendency, there is considerable variation in behavior not only across countries, but also across time within countries. In explaining the cross-country variations, the data confirm traditional drivers for common pool behavior while also supporting constructive roles for political institutions and the technical capacity for public financial management. This is good news for reform minded governments.