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Inflation and Budget Deficit: What is the Relationship in Portugal?

Rosa, Agostinho S.
Fonte: ANPEC - Associação Nacional de Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics) Publicador: ANPEC - Associação Nacional de Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia (Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.5%
The main causes of Portuguese inflation, based on annual data from 1954 to 1995, using the Johansen Method, allows us to conclude that variation in Portuguese inflation is determined essentially by foreign inflation and by variation in the effective exchange rate of the Portuguese Escudo (PTE). In the long-term, the relationship between inflation rate and the growth rate of unit labour costs is almost unitary. However, the response of inflation change to the equilibrium error between inflation rate and changes in unit labour costs is slow and almost insignificant, while the response of unit labour costs to this disequilibrium is fast and significant, what suggests that the direction of causality is much more evident from the inflation rate on unit labour costs, than the reverse. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP, are not significant in the short-term, in relation to variation in inflation as a dependent variable. However, it is significant in the relation to unit labour costs as a dependent variable, so we can have an indirect positive relation between inflation and lagged budget deficit.

Determinants of fiscal budget volatility in old versus new EU member states

Mara, Eugenia-Ramona
Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia
Tipo: Outros
Publicado em //2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.48%
In this study we perform an analysis of the volatility of the budget deficit for EU countries. We address this issue starting from the new requirements of fiscal discipline imposed by the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance adopted by 25 European Union member states and taking into account the economic crisis impact. The major purpose of this study is to identify the most significant determinants of budget deficit volatility in a comparative study for old EU member states and New Member States (NMS). This study aims to test the impact of macroeconomic variables such as public expenditures, economic growth rate, and unemployment on the budget balance volatility, based on panel data. The final purpose of the article is to reveal the strategies to stop the immense increase in fiscal deficits and to regain fiscal stability to fulfil the new rules of fiscal governance. We anticipate that the implementation of this new fiscal discipline requires a more efficient public sector for both old and NMS and a reconsideration of state intervention in the economy.

Voting on the Budget Deficit

Tabellini, Guido; Alesina, Alberto
Fonte: American Economic Association Publicador: American Economic Association
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
This paper analyzes a model in which a group of rational individuals votes over the composition and time profile of public spending. All voters agree that a balanced budget is ex ante optimal. However, if there is disagreement between current and future majorities, a balanced budget is not a political equilibrium under majority rule. Under certain conditions a majority of the voters favors a budget deficit, and the equilibrium deficit is larger the greater is the polarization among voters.; Economics

Federal Budget Outlook and Economic Prospects Through 1982

Davis, Robert R. ; Genetski, Robert J.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
The federal budget deficit for fiscal 1982 is expected to expand to a record of $77 billion. However, comparisons indicate that by some measures the deficit will be smaller than others experienced during the last decade. The deficit is not expected to interfere with the conduct of monetary policy, and while anticipation of the deficit may have contributed to record high interest rates, the deficit should not significantly alter the course of interest rate declines projected for this year and next.

Federal Budget Outlook -- A Report to the SOMC

Levy, Mickey D.
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.48%
Projections of the FY1984 budget deficit have been revised downward, to $179.7 billion by the Administration...Any optimism about these forecasts of declining deficits, however, must be tempered. Both forecasts assume the enactment of substantial deficit-cutting legislation, and such action may not be politically feasible, at least on the short-term horizon. Also, although there is much uncertainty about the economic outlook, some of the assumptions underlying these projected budget outcomes may be too optimistic. Consequently, budget deficits may be higher than these projections indicate.

Policy Statement

Shadow Open Market Committee,
Fonte: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester Publicador: William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
Press attention concentrates on the Federal budget deficit and propagates the mistaken belief that a smaller budget deficit is the key to lasting prosperity, stable growth and low inflation. Spokesmen for the Federal Reserve and some members of the Administration encourage this view. By concentrating on the budget deficit, they draw attention from Administration and Federal Reserve failures to implement policies that enhance price stability,. efficiency and growth.

FYR Macedonia Public Expenditure Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.53%
Progress in advancing political and economic reforms has been substantial this decade. The authorities have moved with determination in implementing the Framework Agreement for Peace (the Ohrid Agreement) that ended the 2001 hostilities, including enhancing the representation of minorities in governmental structures. This, together with economic reforms and the implementation of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union (EU), led the European Council to grant FYR Macedonia the status of a candidate country in December 2005. In 2003, the Government introduced a stabilization program focused on tighter fiscal policy and supported by the continuation of the de facto pegging of the exchange rate against the euro. The budget deficit was virtually eliminated in the first year of the program and in the subsequent years spending has been sharply reduced as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The fiscal adjustment helped improve financial stability and placed public debt ratios on a steadily declining path...

Ukraine - Review of the Budget Process : A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
This report is a companion report of the Country Financial Accountability Assessment. It presents an institutional analysis of the budget process, which is the process by which the government allocates funds to spending agencies. It analyzes the participants in the decision-making process related to spending and the institutions involved in the budgetary and financial management of government operations, as well as the modalities of preparation and execution of the budget. The report also updates the findings of the 1997 Public Expenditure Review concerning fiscal sustainability and the size and composition of public expenditure, which is discussed in an international context. Finally, the report provides recomendations on how to improve the management of public resources.

The Republic of Uganda - Public Expenditure Review : Report on the Progress and Challenges of Budget Reforms

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
This PER emphasizes the importance of the government and its development partners developing a systematic program and a sequenced approach to address identified concerns to allow Uganda to achieve macrostability, fiscal sustainability, and poverty reduction. The report is organized in seven chapters. Chapter 1 discusses the macro challenges Uganda faces and how these are linked to fiscal considerations. Macrostability has largely been achieved with satisfactory growth rates higher than in the previous year. But the unprecedented terms of trade shock has resulted in the decline of total receipts from exports. The reduction of foreign exchange revenues in combination with lower revenue collections has led to fiscal constraints. Chapter 2 notes the need to ensure stakeholder contribution to the budget process and to improve quality of budget planning, choices, and predictability. Chapter 3 analyzes the health, education, and water and sanitation sectors and describes the great progress made in aloocative efficiency --although these sectors are experiencing major challenges in achieving operational efficiency. Chapter 4 discusses how the government has "commitment control systems (CCSs)" to address the problem of arrears. Chapter 5 identifies how Uganda uses tracking systems to identify problems in flow of funds. Chapter 6 discusses the growing challenges for budget preparation...

Intertemporal Excess Burden, Bequest Motives, and the Budget Deficit

Chen, Derek Hung Chiat
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.75%
The author aims to empirically determine the significant factors that affect the levels of budget deficits of central governments across time and across countries. He empirically tests two prominent theories of budget deficits-the Barro (1979) tax-smoothing approach, and the still-untested theory of negative bequest motives advocated by Cukierman and Meltzer (1989). The author uses econometric techniques including fixed-effects (both country and time) panel regressions spanning 87 countries over the period 1975 to 1992, and the Griliches treatment of missing data. The author finds relatively stronger statistical support for the tax-smoothing approach among developing countries but not in industrial countries. The existence of empirical evidence supporting the theory of negative bequest motives is indeterminate. The author also conducted post-regression analyses to assess the proportion of observed differences in budget deficits the factors were actually able to explain. These reveal that both theories are generally weak in accounting for inter-temporal changes in budget deficit shares for both industrial and developing countries. The theories performed significantly better in accounting for cross-section differences. The author has many contributions to the literature. First...

Ten Years of Transformation

Wyplosz, Charles
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
ES
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
After surveying the facts and distilling the voluminous literature on the transition to market economies, the author arrives at several conclusions: with hindsight, the old debate - Big Bang versus gradualism - was really a problem of feasibility, although many of the arguments in favor of the Big Bang have now been proven right. Once more, inflation has been found to be incompatible with growth and the importance of a good microeconomic structure - especially an effective banking system - has been confirmed. The decline of the state in transition economies is both spectacular and puzzling - combining features that are both desirable and dangerous. Among useful lessons learned: 1) It has paid to start early and move fast. The Big Bang is highly desirable but impractical, and gradualism is unavoidable but ought to be compressed as much as possible. The countries that bit the bullet early and hard have done better over the past decade. 2) Stabilize first; growth next. Macroeconomic stabilization is a prerequisite for growth. The budget deficit need not be eliminated...

Reducing Vulnerability to Speculative Attacks; Como reducir la vulnerabilidad frente a los ataques especulativos?

Calvo, Sara
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
The note focuses on the speculative attack on domestic assets, which can occur irrespective of country's fiscal situation, suggesting political economy considerations may be the reason. However, recent events have reopened the debate on how to reduce vulnerability to capital outflows in developing countries, though other risk factors have been identified, which if minimized, can still reduce vulnerability to speculative attacks. It addresses the perils of inconsistent macroeconomic policies, as evidenced in Argentina, where the Central Bank was financing the government's budget deficit by creating money, while trying to keep the exchange rate fixed. Moreover, a speculative attack on bonds, instead of currency, can also lead to a devaluation, such as a sudden shift in perceptions about macroeconomic stability, may lead to a loss in reserves, as in Mexico's 1994 crisis, when high interest rates associated with a currency defense was perceived as intolerable. This is substantiated through case studies, which further include the expectation of realized contingent liabilities...

Comprehensive Public Expenditure Review 2013 : Eye on Budget - Spending for Results; Kenya - Toleo lililorahisishwa uchunguzi wa matumizi ya pesa za umma : tathmini ya bajeti - matumizi yenye matokeo bora

Ministry of Devolution and Planning
Fonte: Government of Kenya, Nairobi Publicador: Government of Kenya, Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.55%
This public expenditure review (PER) provides an assessment of the extent to which expenditure addresses national priorities in an effort to strengthen the link between government policies, planning, and budgeting. This report is prepared to provide a critical assessment of public spending, challenges, weaknesses, and successes in the past three years (2009 to 2012). The report subsequently informs current and future expenditure through policies that influence budget decisions. It links public expenditure to performance of key sectors in the economy for the three year period; while giving policy and performance outlook focusing on the implementation of the constitution of Kenya 2010 in general and devolution in particular. This report gives an outline on sector performance of programs and reviews expenditures for the period. It provides recommendations to improve implementation of the budget in terms of efficiency, effectiveness, timeliness, and target for better service delivery. This report accentuates the institutional reforms underpinned in the constitution of Kenya 2010 and explores the opportunities to catalyze Kenya's growth as envisaged in the economic blue print...

India : Sustaining Reform, Reducing Poverty

World Bank
Fonte: New Delhi: Oxford University Press Publicador: New Delhi: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
The report analyzes India ' s continued good progress in increasing incomes, and improving living standards over the past decade, which after the setback associated with the 1991 balance of payments crisis, economic growth picked up, income poverty continued to decline, and many social indicators, in particular literacy, continued to improve. Likewise, there has been an opening to private activity, trade policy and the exchange rate regime have been further liberalized, and capital markets have been reformed, leading to an improved investment climate. Nonetheless, development progress has been steady, but uneven, while in addition, the recent growth deceleration was accompanied by a slowdown in investment, especially in the private sector. The fiscal position of the general government has now also deteriorated, with a rising budget deficit, the result of a significant increase in government consumption, and continued low revenue mobilization. But at the same time, prudent monetary policy has helped contain inflation...

India : Sustaining Reform, Reducing Poverty

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
The report analyzes India's continued good progress in increasing incomes, and improving living standards over the past decade, which after the setback associated with the 1991 balance of payments crisis, economic growth picked up, income poverty continued to decline, and many social indicators, in particular literacy, continued to improve. Likewise, there has been an opening to private activity, trade policy and the exchange rate regime have been further liberalized, and capital markets have been reformed, leading to an improved investment climate. Nonetheless, development progress has been steady, but uneven, while in addition, the recent growth deceleration was accompanied by a slowdown in investment, especially in the private sector. The fiscal position of the general government has now also deteriorated, with a rising budget deficit, the result of a significant increase in government consumption, and continued low revenue mobilization. But at the same time, prudent monetary policy has helped contain inflation...

Tapering Talk : The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets

Eichengreen, Barry; Gupta, Poonam
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
In May 2013, Federal Reserve officials first began to talk of the possibility of tapering their security purchases. This tapering talk had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. Different countries, however, were affected very differently. This paper uses data on exchange rates, foreign reserves and equity prices between April and August 2013 to analyze who was hit and why. It finds that emerging markets that allowed the real exchange rate to appreciate and the current account deficit to widen during the prior period of quantitative easing saw the sharpest impact. Better fundamentals (the budget deficit, the public debt, the level of reserves, or the rate of economic growth) did not provide insulation. A more important determinant of the differential impact was the size of the country's financial market: countries with larger markets experienced more pressure on the exchange rate, foreign reserves, and equity prices. This is interpreted as showing that investors are better able to rebalance their portfolios when the target country has a relatively large and liquid financial market.

Revising Vietnam's State Budget Law (2002) : Proposals Drawing on International Experience

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Vietnam Publicador: World Bank, Vietnam
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
This Policy Note is designed to inform the Government of Vietnam and National Assembly (notably the Committee on Finance and Budgetary Affairs, CFBA) discussions on the revision of the State Budget Law (SBL) (2002) by drawing on good international practices in budget management. It is part of the World Bank s ongoing policy dialogue with and advice to the Government and the National Assembly on revisions to the SBL (2002). The SBL (2002) has provided a strong basis for regulating Public Finance Management (PFM) in Vietnam since 2004, when the Law became effective. It has helped the government to allocate and spend public resources in an effective manner, thereby contributing to delivery of important public service outcomes. The SBL (2002), however, needs to be revised to enhance Vietnam s fiscal regulatory framework and accountability. The Policy Note covers seven broad areas including: (i) the coverage and layout of the SBL (2002); (ii) the budget framework for fiscal policy making; (iii) budget approval processes at the National Assembly and Provincial People s Councils; (iv) specific budget classification and definition issues; (v) intergovernmental fiscal relations; (vi) budget execution...

Indonesia : Budget Reform Strategy Priorities

Allen, R.; Eckardt, S.; Jacobs, D.; Kristensen, J.; Lienert, I.; Schiavo-Campo, S.
Fonte: International Monetory Fund and the World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: International Monetory Fund and the World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Public Sector Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74%
This report is designed to assist the authorities develop an overall road map for reforming budget preparation. A specific focus is on the steps to be taken to introduce a medium-term framework for the central government's budget and a performance-based budget. These reforms require important preconditions to be in place, and a substantial change in the culture, incentives and behavior of the public service, and are likely to take several years to complete. Successive Indonesian governments have embarked on various reforms in the budget and public financial management system. New laws for governing budget and planning processes were adopted during 2003-04, which are gradually being implemented. The national development planning agency (BAPPENAS) and spending ministries have developed strategic government and ministerial plans that provide a basis for elaborating the framework for performance measurement and evaluation. Reforms are thus starting from a secure base and can also take advantage of the improved and stable macroeconomic and fiscal conditions...

Análisis del deficit presupuestal en funcionamiento de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Morales, José Javier; Salazar, Jair
Fonte: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública Publicador: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Especialización en Finanzas y Administración Pública
Tipo: bachelorThesis; Trabajo de grado Formato: pdf; pdf
SPA
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
Este ensayo sobre el déficit presupuestal en los Gastos de Funcionamiento en la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, busca en primer lugar, encontrar la raíz de la problemática financiera de la entidad. De igual forma investiga el comportamiento de las rentas y gastos en la Universidad, así como también su composición y evolución en el tiempo. En segundo lugar, determina cuáles han sido las causas o situaciones que crean el déficit presupuestal en la institución. Y por último, se desarrolla el objetivo principal, que es dar respuesta a la necesidad de buscar, alternativas de solución, que hagan sostenible la función de estado, encomendada a la Universidad Nacional de Colombia.; This essay about the budget deficit in operating expenses of the National University of Colombia, firstly intends to find the root of financial problems of the entity. It researches the behavior of the revenue and expenditure in the University, as well as its composition and evolution in time. Secondly, it determines which have been the causes or situations that create the budget deficit in the institution. And finally, develops the main objective, which aims to respond to the need to search for alternative solutions that make sustainable the role of state...

Mongolia Economic Update, November 2015

World Bank Group
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.64%
Mongolia’s growth sharply slowed to 3.0 percent in the first half of 2015. External demand is weakening due to a continued dampening of the commodity market and slower growth in China, translating into a drop in exports. Slowing domestic demand is largely caused by a plunge in investment due to falling foreign direct investment (FDI). Measures were taken to curb the budget deficit, debt, and off-budget expenditures. New deficit and debt ceilings were set for 2015-18 by amending the fiscal stability law (FSL) in January. The 2015 budget was amended in January to curb the structural deficit within 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Growth is expected to slow in 2015-16, but a recovery in foreign investment will begin to support the growth of the non-mining sector in 2016. The Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) is expected to provide about Mongolian Tughrik rates (MNT) 600 billion to its commercial portfolio in 2015, and to further reduce its commercial spending to MNT 300-400 billion in the next couple of years due to tight financing conditions. Under these assumptions...