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Public Debt Management in Emerging Market Economies : Has This Time Been Different?

Anderson, Phillip R. D.; Silva, Anderson Caputo; Velandia-Rubiano, Antonio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
Despite the scale of the global financial crisis, to date it has not resulted in a sovereign debt crisis among emerging market countries. Two significant factors in this outcome are the improved macroeconomic management and public debt management in these countries over the past decade. This paper reviews the improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals and the composition of public debt portfolios in emerging market countries prior to the crisis and concludes that the policies and strategies pursued by governments provided them with a buffer when the crisis hit. Nevertheless, with the international capital markets effectively closed for over three months and domestic borrowing in many cases impacted by extreme risk aversion, government debt managers were required to adapt their strategies to rapidly changing circumstances. The paper reviews the impact of the crisis and the responses of debt managers to the drying up of international capital, decreased liquidity in markets, and sharply increased term premia. Three categories of response are identified: (i) funding from other sources to reduce pressure on market borrowing; (ii) adapting funding programs to changes in demand in the different types of securities; and (iii) implementing liability management operations to support the market. Most governments were willing to accept temporarily greater risk in their portfolios...

Cyclical Effects of Bank Capital Requirements with Imperfect Credit Markets

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.53%
This paper analyzes the cyclical effects of bank capital requirements in a simple model with credit market imperfections. Lending rates are set as a premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank, with the premium itself depending on firms effective collateral. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined and a capital channel is introduced through a signaling effect of capital buffers on the cost of bank deposits. The macroeconomic effects of various shocks (a drop in output, an increase in the refinance rate, and a rise in the capital adequacy ratio) are analyzed, under both binding and nonbinding capital requirements. Factors affecting the procyclicality of each regime (defined in terms of the behavior of the risk premium) are also identified and policy implications are discussed.

Managing State Debt and Ensuring Solvency : The Indian Experience

Rangarajan, C.; Prasad, Abha
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.57%
The paper presents the policymakers perspective on the reforms undertaken to manage states debt and ensure solvency. While the sustained high growth rates of the Indian economy played a part in alleviating the interest burden on debt and ensuring that the debt does not grow in an explosive trajectory, major reforms were implemented to reverse the fiscal decline, develop fiscal responsibility rules to ensure sustained adjustment, and move toward a market-based financing of state deficits. The serious efforts at fiscal consolidation and institutional reforms have enabled states to set on the path toward fiscal correction. Nonetheless, weak global growth prospects and the risk of a further rise in global commodity and fuel prices could generate the dilemma of needing to compress expenditures for ensuring fiscal sustainability while simultaneously needing counter-cyclical spending to boost growth, and challenge the fiscal adjustment process.

Philippines : Invigorating Growth, Enhancing Its Impact

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.37%
Major fiscal adjustment during 2005-06, aided by abundant global liquidity, has turned around market sentiment on the Philippines. Stocks, the peso and reserves have all risen significantly, as have foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows, while interest costs and spreads for government borrowing have fallen along with inflation. Real GDP grew by 5.4 percent in 2006 and real GNP by 6.2 percent, marking the first time that three consecutive years of growth of 5 or more percent was recorded since the 1970s. Strong growth in business process outsourcing, electronics exports and remittance-driven consumption served as important props for higher growth. This paper includes the following headings: recent economic developments; how robust is present growth; invigorating growth, enhancing its impact; and maximizing the benefits of growth for the poor.

Linking Public Investment Programs and SPAHD Macro Models : Methodology and Application to Aid Requirements

Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Bayraktar, Nihal; Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
The authors propose a "bottom up" approach to link public investment programs with a class of macro models recently developed to quantify Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD) in low-income countries. The methodology involves establishing constant-price projections of investment outlays (disaggregated into infrastructure, education, and health), spending on maintenance and other goods and services, salaries, and user charges. These estimates are incorporated in a SPAHD macro framework to calculate, under alternative scenarios, domestic financing, foreign borrowing, and aid requirements. The authors also evaluate the impact on growth and indicators associated with the Millennium Development Goals. They use illustrative applications, based on a SPAHD model for Niger, to highlight the link between tax reform and aid requirements.

Brazil : Stability for Growth and Poverty Reduction

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
The importance of macroeconomic stability for growth, and poverty reduction is now accepted in Brazil. As of 1964, the country followed responsible macroeconomic policies, in the pursuit of stability, reconfirmed by the new Government in January 2003. The report focuses strictly on three key macroeconomic issues, critical to assure stability, avoid crises, and hence allow poverty reduction on a sustainable basis. Though much has been achieved, stability, and higher growth in Brazil now depend on reforms along three main axes: Structural fiscal reforms, to allow flexible public spending towards a higher primary surplus; moving towards a different public debt composition; and, ensuring an external adjustment, sustainable and in tandem with higher growth. The report argues for reducing volatility, and uncertainty to achieve sustainable growth, and poverty reduction, and, based on its analysis, it further argues for a debt management strategy that includes gradual lengthening of maturity, and duration of debt; indexing more debt to prices...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Solomon Islands

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.7%
From February 19 to 28, 2009, a World Bank team undertook a debt management performance assessment (DeMPA) mission to Honiara, Solomon Islands. The objective was to undertake a comprehensive assessment of debt management functions applying the DeMPA tool. The assessment reveals that the Solomon Islands meets the minimum requirements for effective debt management performance as specified by the DeMPA tool on the legal framework, coordination with monetary policy, and debt reporting. While taking note of substantial efforts to improve performance in a number of areas, the assessment also found that the Solomon Islands does not meet the minimum requirements for the indicators assessing the debt management strategy, managerial structure, coordination with fiscal policy, domestic borrowing, cash flow forecasting and cash balance management, debt records, and debt recording. The mission also identified the following areas that require improvement and could be considered priorities for capacity building and reform: evaluation of debt management operations; auditing; external borrowing; loan guarantees...

Reserve Requirements in the Brave New Macroprudential World

Cordella, Tito; Federico, Pablo; Vegh, Carlos; Vuletin, Guillermo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
Using a new, large data set on quarterly reserve requirements for the period 1970-2011, this paper provides new evidence on the use of reserve requirements as a countercyclical macroprudential tool in developing countries. The appeal of reserve requirements lies in the pro-cyclical behavior of the exchange rate over the business cycle in developing countries. This enormously complicates the use of interest rates as a countercyclical instrument (because of its effect on the exchange rate) and calls for a second instrument. The paper suggests that conflicts may arise between the microprudential and macroprudential policy stances.

Malawi Economic Monitor, October 2015; Adjusting in Turbulent Times

Record, Richard; Kandoole, Priscilla; Asim, Salman; Chilima, Efrem; Kalemba, Sunganani
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Report; Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.57%
The Malawi economic monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. The focus of the special topic is on the effectiveness of public spending on primary education and the means by which this can be improved. With more than half of Malawi’s population under the age of 18, the country faces significant challenges in its efforts to provide quality education to a growing population of students. Malawi also faces ongoing fiscal pressures, so there is a need to find ways to maximize the development impact within the limits of the finite resources available for investment in education. The MEM consists of two parts: part one presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part two focuses in greater depth on a special...

Decentralizing Borrowing Powers; Descentralizacion de la potestad para obtener credito

Ahmad, Junaid
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Brief; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
The note highlights the importance of sound intergovernmental fiscal relations, and proper regulation for successful sub-national borrowing, and illustrates the potential macroeconomic hazards of decentralizing borrowing powers, arguing that the impact of a possible moral hazard problem, namely, the access to financial markets by sub-national governments, may generate unplanned liabilities for central governments. Yet academia, and country experiences do not suggest adverse links between decentralized borrowing powers, and the central government's ability to maintain fiscal discipline, and macroeconomic stability. Rather the key seems to lie in the design of fiscal decentralization, particularly the regulatory framework under which borrowing powers are decentralized. The note outlines the reasons why sub-national governments require access to financial markets: to finance capital spending, and foster political accountability, which can be achieved through direct borrowing by central government, through a public financial intermediary...

Low-Income Countries’ Access to Private Debt Markets

Hostland, Doug
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.37%
Private debt flows to developing countries surged to record levels over the period 2003-07. A few low-income countries have gained access to the international bond market but the bulk of the flows have continued to go to just a few large middle-income countries. Most low-income countries still heavily depend on concessional loans and grants from the official sector to meet their financing needs. The paper provides an overview of low-income countries' access to cross-border bank lending and bond issuance in the international market over the past few decades. It highlights some stylized facts that characterize salient features of low-income countries' experience in external borrowing from the private sector and discusses the various factors that influence governments' and corporations' decisions to seek external financing along with creditors' decisions to provide the financing. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for low-income countries' access to private debt markets over the medium term.

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2010/11-2012/13

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.58%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2010 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) is a versatile public debt management tool linked to the medium term fiscal framework that contains prudent revenue projections and planned expenditures consistent with Kenya's economic recovery effort. The strategy seeks to address the terms of new borrowing, including the appropriate mix between domestic and external debt. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2010 MTDS.

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Sao Tome and Principe; Sao Tome and Principe - Avaliacao do Desempenho da Gestao da Divida (DeMPA)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.57%
During February 2-14, 2008 a World Bank team comprised of Per-Olof Jonsson and Frederico Gil Sander traveled to Sao Tome e Príncipe to undertake an assessment of the government's debt management capacity and institutions using the Debt Management Performance Assessment Tool (DeMPA). The DeMPA is a methodology for assessing government debt management (DeM) performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of DeM functions. The assessment reveals that despite notable progress since the inception of the debt office in 2004, overall Sao Tome Príncipe meets the minimum requirements set out by the DeMPA only in the fields of evaluation of debt management operations and coordination with monetary policy. The Government does not meet the minimum requirements in the other indicators. The gap between existing practices and the minimum requirements is narrow in some areas. Among the areas for improvement where greater effort is required to reach good practices, the mission identified the legal framework and the managerial structures as key priorities in a reform program.

Debt Management Performance Assessment : The Gambia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.58%
During January 11 to 20, 2010, a World Bank team undertook a Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) mission to Gambia. This tool provides a methodology for assessing government debt management performance through a comprehensive set of dimensions spanning the full range of DeM functions. The first time the tool was applied in Gambia was in 2007, when a pilot study was carried out, and this was a follow-up mission. The DeMPA methodology has evolved since the report made in 2007 and therefore it is not possible to carry out a strict comparison of the two DeMPA reports in terms of individual indicators as the detailed dimensions that make up an indicator are no longer aggregated; instead, each dimension is given a specific score. It is clear however that Gambia's debt management has progressed substantially in some dimensions during recent years although there are still remaining issues that would benefit from reform and institutional capacity-building. The mission notes that given that several reforms are currently being implemented...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Burkina Faso; Burkina Faso - Outil d'evaluation de la Performance en Matiere de Gestion de la Dette (DeMPA)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington Publicador: Washington
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.63%
The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) is a methodology for assessing government Debt Management (DeM) performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of DeM functions. The assessment reveals that Burkina Faso's DeM institutions' performance meets minimum requirements in six out of the fifteen debt performance indicators. All external loans that are contracted by the government respect a 35 percent minimum concessionality condition and are analyzed and approved by a debt committee; formal evaluation reports are produced for each project considered. Finally, Burkina has a fairly well-managed front office that concentrates relations with all donors and is thus better able to maximize the volume of concessional financing and avoid non-concessional borrowing. Nevertheless, Burkina Faso does not meet the minimum requirements in a total of fourteen dimensions across nine Debt Performance Indicator's (DPIs), and it only exceeds the minimum requirements in four indicators...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.68%
The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) is a methodology for assessing government debt management (DeM) performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of DeM functions. The assessment reveals that Mozambique has points of strength in most areas evaluated by the DeMPA, but that it meets the minimum requirements only in the fields of the legal framework and managerial structure. Mozambique does not meet the minimum requirements with respect to the other indicators, although in many cases work is underway that would lead to meeting the requirements (e.g., debt strategy, debt reporting) or only small improvements would be required in order to meet those requirements (e.g., the annual report, coordination with fiscal policy). The concluding section of this paper outlines areas in which the minimum requirement could be met over the short run with minimal adjustments, and areas where progress would require stronger efforts. Mozambique benefited from debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative in 2001 and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) in 2006. The government has remained committed to seeking new financing with at least 35 percent concessionality...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Papua New Guinea

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.61%
At the request of the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), a mission comprised of Jeff Chelsky (PRMVP, mission lead), Tomas Magnusson (BDM, consultant), Greg Horman (BDM, consultant) and Tim Bulman (EAP, country economist), visited Port Moresby between November 22nd and December 3rd to undertake a DeMPA exercise. The team met with officials from the Department of Treasury, Bank of Papua New Guinea, Department of Finance, Department of National Planning and Monitoring, State Solicitor's Office, Auditor General's Office, Independent Public Business Corporation (IPBC), AUSAid, Asian Development Bank, ANZ Bank, Nambawan Super, and Bank South Pacific (BSP). This report reflects comments received from the PNG authorities in February 2011. The mission found that, in a number of areas, PNG meets or exceeds minimum DeMPA requirements. Strengths include the quality of the debt management strategy, the framework for domestic debt issuance, coordination with monetary policy, and the legal framework (except for the issuance of T-bills for which the law contains no explicit borrowing purposes). Looking ahead...

Global Economic Prospects 2010 : Crisis, Finance, and Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.5%
The world economy is emerging from the throes of a historically deep and synchronized recession provoked by the bursting of a global financial bubble. The consequences of the initial bubble and the crisis have been felt in virtually every economy, whether or not it participated directly in the risky behaviors that precipitated the boom-and-bust cycle. And while growth rates have picked up, the depth of the recession means that it will take years before unemployment and spare capacity are reabsorbed. This year's global economic prospects examines the consequences of the crisis for both the short and medium term growth prospects of developing countries. It concludes that the crisis and the regulatory reaction to the financial excesses of the preceding several years may have lasting impacts on financial markets, raising borrowing costs and lowering levels of credit and international capital flows. As a result, the rate of growth of potential output in developing countries may be reduced by between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points annually over the next five to seven years as economies adjust to tighter financial conditions. Overall...

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2011/12-2013/14

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.58%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2011 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) outlines the government's preferred strategy to guide debt management operations in FY2011-12. It seeks to balance the cost and risk of both the existing public debt portfolio and alternative borrowing mix. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2011 MTDS.

Dívida pública e estabilidade de preços no período pós-real: explorando relações empíricas

Mendonça, Helder Ferreira de
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/06/2004 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
O objetivo do artigo é estudar evidências empíricas para a dinâmica da dívida pública a partir de algumas variáveis que estão relacionadas à busca da estabilidade de preços no período posterior à introdução do Plano Real. Para tanto, é feito um modelo auto-regressivo vetorial (VAR) para analisar as regularidades empíricas provenientes da relação entre: necessidades de financiamento do setor público - juros reais X resultado primário do setor público X câmbio X inflação X dívida pública. Os resultados encontrados denotam que a estabilidade de preços obtida no período não é suficiente para promover reduções no estoque da dívida pública e que é necessário uma nova estrutura de indexação.; The objective of this paper is to study the empirical evidences for the dynamic of the public debt from some variables that are associated with the search for price stability in the period after the introduction of the Real plan. For this, a vector autoregression model is made (VAR) for analyzing the empirical regularities from the relationship among: primary result X public sector borrowing requirements (real interest) X exchange rate X inflation X public debt. The findings denote that the price stability observed in the period is not enough to promote reductions in the public debt and that a new indexation framework is necessary.