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Relative intensity of bilateral trade flows, regional integration, and trade performance: the case of Brazil, 1984-1998

Silva,Valquiria da; Anefalos,Lilian C.; R. Filho,José Carlos G. dos
Fonte: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural Publicador: Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2003 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.5%
The objective of this research is to identify the component of trade that results specifically from bilateral relations and evaluate how the creation of trading blocs affects trade relations between countries. The trirapport coefficient of the relative intensity of bilateral agricultural sector trade flows between Brazil and other countries from 1984 and 1998 is used in the evaluation. In general, the results show that relative trade intensity between Brazil and its non-MERCOSUL trade partners fell after their entry into regional trade agreements (extra-bloc effect). The intra-bloc effect (trade expansion) is reflected by changes in trade intensity between Brazil and the other MERCOSUL members and changes in trade intensity between NAFTA members Mexico, Canada, and the United States.

Does It Matter Who You Sign With? Comparing the Impacts of North-South and South-South Trade Agreements on Bilateral Trade

Behar, Alberto; Cirera i Criville, Laia
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.61%
Free trade agreements lead to a rise in bilateral trade regardless of whether the signatories are developed or developing countries. Furthermore, the percentage increase in bilateral trade is higher for South-South agreements than for North-South agreements. In this paper, the results are robust across a number of gravity model specifications in which the analysis controls for the endogeneity of free trade agreements (with bilateral fixed effects) and also takes account of multilateral resistance in both estimation (with country-time fixed effects) and comparative statics (analytically). The analytical model shows that multilateral resistance dampens the impact of free trade agreements on trade by less in South-South agreements than in North-South agreements, which accentuates the difference implied by the gravity model coefficients, and that this difference gets larger as the number of signatories rises. For example, allowing for lags and multilateral resistance, a four-country North-South agreement raises bilateral trade by 53 percent while the analogous South-South impact is 107 percent.

U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China Trade Conflict : Export Growth, Reciprocity, and the International Trading System

Bown, Chad P.; McCulloch, Rachel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
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First Japan and more recently China have pursued export-oriented growth strategies. While other Asian countries have done likewise, Japan and China are of particular interest because their economies are so large and the size of the associated bilateral trade imbalances with the United States so conspicuous. In this paper the authors focus on U.S. efforts to restore the reciprocal GATT/WTO market-access bargain in the face of such large imbalances and the significant spillovers to the international trading system. The paper highlights similarities and differences in the two cases. The authors describe U.S. attempts to reduce the bilateral imbalances through targeted trade policies intended to slow growth of U.S. imports from these countries or increase growth of U.S. exports to them. They then examine how these trade policy responses, as well as U.S. efforts to address what were perceived as underlying causes of the imbalances, influenced the evolution of the international trading system. Finally, the authors compare the macroeconomic conditions associated with the bilateral trade imbalances and their implications for the conclusions of the two episodes.

Institutions, Infrastructure, and Trade

Francois, Joseph; Manchin, Miriam
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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56.63%
The authors examine the influence of infrastructure, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. They are interested in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. The authors depart from the institutions and infrastructure literature in this respect, using selection-based gravity modeling of trade flows. They also depart from this literature by mixing principal components (to condense the institutional and infrastructure measures) with a focus on deviations in the resulting indexes from expected values for given income cohorts to control for multicollinearity. The authors work with a panel of 284,049 bilateral trade flows from 1988 to 2002. Matching bilateral trade and tariff data and controlling for tariff preferences, level of development, and standard distance measures, they find that infrastructure and institutional quality are significant determinants not only of export levels...

Preferential Trade Agreements and Their Role in World Trade

Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The author investigates the effects of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows using a comprehensive database of PTAs in force and a detailed matrix of world trade. He shows that total trade between PTA partners is a poor proxy for preferential trade (trade in tariff lines where preferences are likely to matter): while the former amounted to one-third of global trade in 2000-02, the latter was between one-sixth and one-tenth of world trade. His gravity model estimates indicate that using total rather than preferential trade to assess the impact of PTAs leads to a significant downward bias in the PTA coefficient. The author finds that product exclusions and long phase-in periods significantly limit preferential trade, and their removal could more than double trade in tariff lines above 3 percent of most-favored-nation (MFN) duties. He also shows that the effects of PTAs on trade vary by type of agreement and are increasing in the incomes of PTA partners.

Trade Costs in the Developing World : 1995 - 2010

Arvis, Jean-François; Duval, Yann; Shepherd, Ben; Utoktham, Chorthip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The authors use newly collected data on trade and production in 178 countries to infer estimates of trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods for the 1995-2010 period. The data show that trade costs are strongly declining in per capita income. Moreover, the rate of change of trade costs is largely unfavorable to the developing world: trade costs are falling noticeably faster in developed countries than in developing ones, which serves to increase the relative isolation of the latter. In particular, Sub-Saharan African countries and low-income countries remain subject to very high levels of trade costs. In terms of policy implications, the analysis finds that maritime transport connectivity and logistics performance are very important determinants of bilateral trade costs: in some specifications, their combined effect is comparable to that of geographical distance. Traditional and non-traditional trade policies more generally, including market entry barriers and regional integration agreements, play a significant role in shaping the trade costs landscape.

On the Conservation of Distance in International Trade

Berthelon, Matias; Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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The volume of world trade has grown more than twice as fast as real world income since 1980. Surprisingly, the effect of distance on trade has increased during this period. It could be that countries are trading greater volumes of goods that are highly sensitive to distance. An alternative explanation is that distance has become more import for a significant share of goods. Using highly disaggregated bilateral trade data, the authors find that adjustment in the composition of trade has not influenced the way in which distance affects trade. In contrast, for about 25 percent of industries, distance has become more important. This implies that the increased distance sensitivity of trade is a result of a change in relative trade costs that affects many industries, as opposed to a shift to more distance-sensitive products. The authors also find that homogeneous products are twice as likely to have become more distance sensitive as compared with differentiated goods. This is consistent with the hypothesis that falling search costs...

Trade Costs and Development : A New Data Set

Arvis, Jean-François; Shepherd, Ben; Duval, Yann; Utoktham, Chorthip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.49%
The World Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) jointly prepared a new global data set of bilateral trade costs based on trade and production data. Accessible on the World Bank Open Data Web site, it opens new analytical possibilities for policy makers and researchers working on trade integration. The data stress the importance of supply chains and connectivity constraints in explaining the higher costs and lower levels of trade integration observed in developing countries. To measure trade costs in the developing world over the 1995-2010 period, UNESCAP and the World Bank embarked on a joint data collection exercise. In addition to data on export and import flows, calculation of trade costs using the inverse gravity methodology also requires information on domestic production in each country. Usage can then be calculated as domestic production less total exports. The result of the data collection exercise is a database covering up to 178 countries...

Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on International Trade

Fink, Carsten; Mattoo, Aaditya; Neagu, Ileana Cristina
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Recent research suggests that trade costs influence the pattern of specialization and trade, but there is limited empirical research on the determinants of trade costs. The existing literature identifies a range of barriers that separate nations, but then typically focuses only on transport costs. Although communication costs figure prominently in intuitive explanations and casual observations, they have played little role in the formal analysis of trade costs. The authors seek to examine whether this neglect matters, and whether the inclusion of the magnitude and variation of communication costs across partner countries can add value to existing explanations of the pattern of trade. The authors develop a simple multi-sector model of "impeded" trade that generates hypotheses in a gravity-type estimation framework. The main proxies for bilateral communication costs are the per-minute country-to-country calling prices charged in the importing and exporting countries. The use of bilateral variations in prices yields estimates that are superior to the ones obtained from country-specific measures of communication infrastructure used in previous studies. The authors find that international variations in communication costs have a significant influence on bilateral trade flows...

Impact of APEC trade liberalisation on Sino-Australian Bilateral Trade

Sheng, Yu
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 138373 bytes; 352 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.58%
This paper uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) model to simulate the effect of APEC trade liberalisation on Sino-Australian bilateral trade. By comparing the development of Sino-Australian bilateral trade in the short run and the long run, the analysis depicts a whole set of bilateral trade determination mechanisms. The results indicate that, as economic cooperation within APEC increases, trade between Australia and China will increase, especially in agriculture and textiles. The bilateral trade pattern may follow the principle of comparative advantage and the terms of trade may improve for both countries. The results for the short term are very different from those for the long term, indicating that bilateral trade in open economies is more than just an ‘external sector’ affair.; no

International trade agreements.

Wei, Zhang
Fonte: Universidade de Adelaide Publicador: Universidade de Adelaide
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Publicado em //2009
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In recent years, the use of the mode of regional trade liberalisation has proliferated, while the multilateral talks through the WTO have proceeded slowly, resulting in a debate on the role of bilateral and multilateral trade liberalisation. This thesis aims to provide new insights to this debate by studying the welfare effects of different types of trade agreements and the equilibrium outcome(s) of trade negotiation. We apply the three-country and three-good “competing-exporters model" developed by Bagwell and Staiger (1999) as our basic trade framework. By comparing the equilibrium welfare of each country under different structures of trading blocs, we clarify the welfare impacts of each trade agreement. Then we model the process of trade negotiation as a trade negotiation game, in which each country endogenously decides whether to negotiate through multilateral or bilateral trade liberalisation. By solving the equilibrium of the game, the stable structure of trading blocs and the path(s) to reach it can be found. We start with a framework in which all countries are welfare maximising. We find that at the early stage of trade negotiation, a free trade agreement (FTA) is Pareto welfare improving, despite the fact that member countries benefit more than any non-member. Although being the hub is the best position...

Trade Flows and Trade Disputes

Bown, Chad P.; Reynolds, Kara M.
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper introduces a new data set and establishes a set of basic facts and patterns regarding the trade that countries fight about under World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute settlement. The paper characterizes the scope of products, as well as the levels of and changes to the trade values, market shares, volumes, and prices for those goods that eventually become subject to WTO litigation. The first result is striking heterogeneity in the level of market access at stake across disputes: for example, 14 percent of cases over disputed import products feature bilateral trade that is less than $1 million per year and another 15 percent feature bilateral trade that is more than $1 billion per year. Nevertheless, some strong patterns emerge from a more detailed examination of the data. Both high- and low-income complainants tend to suffer important losses in foreign market access in the products that ultimately become subject to dispute. Furthermore, although the respondent's imposition of an allegedly WTO-inconsistent policy is associated with reductions...

Global Logistics Indicators, Supply Chain Metrics, and Bilateral Trade Patterns

Hausman, Warren H.; Lee, Hau L.; Subramanian, Uma
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.54%
Past research into the determinants of international trade highlighted the importance of the basic spatial gravity model augmented by additional variables representing sources of friction. Studies modeled many sources of friction using various proxies, including indices based on expert judgment in some cases. This paper focuses on logistics friction and draws on a data set recently compiled by the World Bank with specific quantitative metrics of logistics performance in terms of time, cost, and variability in time. It finds that the new variables that relate directly to logistics performance have a statistically significant relationship with the level of bilateral trade. It also finds that a single logistics index can capture virtually all of the explanatory power of multiple logistics indicators. The findings should spur public and private agencies that have direct or indirect power over logistics performance to focus attention on reducing sources of friction so as to improve their country's ability to compete in today's global economy. Moreover, since the logistics metrics are directly related to operational performance, countries can use these metrics to target actions to improve logistics and monitor their progress.

The Growth of China and India in World Trade : Opportunity or Threat for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Lederman, Daniel; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Soloaga, Isidro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper studies the relationship between the growth of China and India in world merchandise trade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows from two perspectives. First, the authors focus on the opportunity that China and India's markets have offered Latin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004. Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlation between Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and Latin American and Caribbean trade with third markets. Both analyses rely on the gravity model of international trade. Econometric estimations that control for the systematic correlation between expected bilateral trade volumes and the size of their regression errors, as well as importer and exporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistent estimates of the relevant parameters for different groups of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results suggest that the growth of the two Asian markets has produced large opportunities for Latin American and Caribbean exporters...

Trade and Production, 1976-99

Nicita, Alessandro; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The authors have prepared this paper as a companion to the Trade and Production database, which contains trade, production, and tariff data for 67 industrial and developing countries at the industry level for 1976-99. The sector disaggregation in the database follows the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), with data provided at the three-digit level (28 industries) for all 67 countries and at the four-digit level (81 industries) for 24 of these countries. The production data are from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization's Industrial Statistics Database at the three- and four-digit level of ISIC. They include value added, total output, average wages, capital formation, number of employees, number of female employees, and number of firms. The trade data are from the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database (through the World Bank's World Integrated Trade Solution, or WITS, software) and include imports and exports. Data on mirror exports (reported by trading partners) were obtained using WITS. The trade data are aggregated by region and income group...

Export Liberalization, Job Creation and the Skill Premium : Evidence from the U.S.-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement

Fukase, Emiko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.49%
This paper explores how the expansion of labor-intensive manufacturing exports resulting from the United States-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2001 translated into wages of skilled and unskilled workers and the skill premium in Vietnam through the channel of labor demand. In order to isolate the impacts of trade shock from the effects of other market-oriented reforms, a strategy of exploiting the regional variation in difference in exposure to trade is employed. Using the data on panel individuals from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys of 2002 and 2004, and addressing the issue of endogeneity, the results confirm the existence of a Stolper-Samuelson type effect. That is, those provinces more exposed to the increase in exports experienced relatively larger wage growth for unskilled workers and a decline of (or a smaller increase in) the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers. During the period 2000-2004, the skill premium increased for Vietnam's economy as a whole in the sample of panel individuals. Thus...

Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective

Wilson, John S.; Mann, Catherine L.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.5%
The relationships between trade facilitation, trade flows, and capacity building are complex and challenging to assess, both empirically and in implementation. The authors measure and estimate the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows across 75 countries in global trade, considering four important categories: port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and service sector infrastructure. A gravity model is employed that accounts for bilateral trade flows in manufactured goods in 2000-01 between the 75 countries, using traditional factors such as GDP, distance, language, and trade areas, and is augmented by the trade facilitation measures in the four categories for each country. The results suggest that both imports and exports for a country and for the world will increase with improvements in these trade facilitation measures. Potential gains from trade facilitation reforms are predicted by using the estimated parameters. The gains from trade facilitation are presented by comparing the gains across geographical regions and trade facilitation categories...

Detecting Illegal Trade Practices by Analyzing Discrepancies in Forest Products Trade Statistics: An Application to Europe, With a Focus on Romania

Vincent, Jeffrey R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.56%
Discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics for forest products have recently attracted attention as potential indicators of illegal trade practices. For example, if exporters understate quantities to evade export taxes or quotas, then one might expect reported exports to be less than reported imports. Discrepancies in trade statistics can exist for reasons that have nothing to do with illegal activities, however, such as measurement error and shipment lags. Any attempt to infer evidence of illegal activities from statistical discrepancies must control for these other explanations. The author estimates the discrepancies between reported imports and exports for bilateral flows of sawnwood traded by Romania and other European countries. The author also examines whether these discrepancies reflect illegal activities by the traders. The mean discrepancy for sawnwood exported by Romania during 1982-97 was significantly different from zero for coniferous sawnwood but not for nonconiferous sawnwood. Yet the sign of the discrepancy for coniferous sawnwood-reported exports tended to be greater than reported imports-implies that illegal trade activities were more likely occurring in Romania's trading partners than in Romania. An econometric analysis of bilateral trade statistics for Romania and other European countries finds evidence that measurement error...

O impacto dos Custos e Qualidade dos serviços de Logística no comércio bilateral : Portugal- Angola

Oliveira, Paulo Vieira Januário
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2013 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Mestrado em Gestão e Estratégia Industrial; O desenvolvimento do comércio global e os avanços tecnológicos contribuíram para que as velhas barreiras ao comércio, como a distância, perdessem o seu efeito como condicionante do comércio bilateral, e dessem lugar a novos entraves, como a qualidade dos serviços e das infraestruturas de logística, tornando-se assim no novo desafio dos países que querem participar do comércio internacional. Para este trabalho é usado um modelo gravitacional para examinar o impacto da qualidade dos serviços de logística e infraestruturas logísticas no comércio bilateral entre Portugal e Angola, usando o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) dos países como variáveis explicativas, assim como o índice de desempenho logístico (LPI) do Banco Mundial. O objectivo deste trabalho é verificar qual o impacto no fluxo comercial entre os dois países caso melhorassem os seus desempenhos logísticos.; The development of global trade and technological advances have contributed to the old barriers to trade, as distance, lost its effect as a conditioner of bilateral trade, and gave place to new barriers as the quality of services and infrastructure logistics, becoming so the new challenge for countries that want to participate in international trade. For this work it was used a gravity model to examine the impact of the quality of logistics services and logistics infrastructure in bilateral trade between Portugal and Angola...

Comércio bilateral entre os países membros do mercosul: uma visão do bloco através do modelo gravitacional

Graf, Claudir Olípio; Azevedo, André Filipe Zago de
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/03/2013 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
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O artigo estima o fluxo potencial de comércio bilateral para os países membros do MERCOSUL, através do modelo gravitacional, utilizando dados em painel pelo método de efeitos fixos e efeitos aleatórios. Os resultados mostraram uma aproximação considerável entre os valores de comércio potencial total do bloco e o fluxo real de comércio, para o ano de 2009, quando estimados através do método de efeitos aleatórios. Os fluxos que apresentaram maior potencial de comércio foram Argentina x Paraguai e Argentina x Uruguai, enquanto o país que apresentou a maior parte dos fluxos bilaterais potenciais de comércio abaixo do comércio efetivo foi o Brasil.; This paper estimates the potential bilateral trade flows for the MERCOSUR members, through a panel of data with fixed and random effects, based on a gravity model. The results show a considerable approximation between the estimate potential flows and the real bilateral trade flows in 2009, when estimated using random effects. The trade flows with the larger trade potential were Argentina x Paraguay and Argentina x Uruguay, while Brazil showed larger effective trade flows than potential flows for most block partners.