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Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.67%
The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Do Middle-Income Countries Continue to Have the Ability to Deal with the Global Financial Crisis?

van Doorn, Ralph; Suri, Vivek; Gooptu, Sudarshan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.26%
This paper introduces an "index of macroeconomic space" -- demonstrating the ability of a country to run a countercyclical fiscal policy or a fiscal stimulus at any point in time -- to show how a sample of 20 mostly middle-income countries had entered the 2008 global financial crisis with different initial conditions that, in turn, determined their ability to respond to this crisis. Since 2008, many have implemented expansionary fiscal policies and have used up available macroeconomic space. Most have had to resort to increased borrowing by the public sector, both externally and domestically. Can the middle-income countries restore their pre-2008 macroeconomic space (to the level given by historical averages of key macroeconomic variables) or contain it from further deterioration in the medium term? In an endeavor to address this question, this paper shows, through illustrative scenarios, that the room to maneuver for some countries is somewhat limited unless they embark on severe, unprecedented fiscal adjustments or they may need more time to do so than current projections seem to suggest.

Debt Relief for the Poorest : An Evaluation Update of the HIPC Initiative

Independent Evaluation Group
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.46%
This study evaluates progress under the HIPC initiative since the 2003 evaluation of the Independent Evaluation Group. It finds that the Enhanced HIPC initiative (the Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) cut debt ratios in half for 18 countries, but in eight of these countries, the ratios have come to once again exceed HIPC thresholds. Debt reduction alone is not a sufficient instrument to affect the multiple drivers of debt sustainability. Sustained improvements in export diversification, fiscal management, the terms of new financing, and public debt management are also needed, measures that fall outside the ambit of the HIPC initiative.

Who Gets Debt Relief?

Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.62%
The authors use preliminary results from an ongoing effort to construct estimates of debt relief to study its allocation across a sample of 62 low-income countries. They find some evidence that debt relief, particularly from multilateral creditors, has been allocated to countries with better policies in recent years. Somewhat surprisingly, conditional on per capita incomes and policy, more indebted countries are not much more likely to receive debt relief. But countries that have large debts especially to multilateral creditors are more likely to receive debt relief. The authors do not find much evidence that debt relief responds to shocks to GDP growth. Finally, most of the persistence in debt relief is driven by slowly changing country characteristics, indicating that it may be difficult for countries to "exit" from cycles of repeated debt relief.

Sovereign Defaults and Expropriations : Empirical Regularities

Eden, Maya; Kraay, Aart; Qian, Rong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
This paper uses a large cross-country dataset to empirically examine factors associated with sovereign defaults on external private creditors and expropriation of foreign direct investments in developing countries since the 1970s. In the long run, sovereign defaults and expropriations are likely to occur in the same countries. In the short run, however, these events are uncorrelated. Defaults are more likely to occur following periods of rapid debt accumulation, when growth is low, and in countries with weak policy performance, and defaults are not strongly persistent over time. In contrast, expropriations are not systematically related to the level of foreign direct investment, to growth, or to policy performance. Expropriations are however less likely under right-wing governments, and are strongly persistent over time. There is also little evidence that a history of recent defaults is associated with expropriations, and vice versa. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for models that emphasize retaliation as means for sustaining sovereign borrowing and foreign investment in equilibrium...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Republic of Moldova

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.26%
The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) comprises a set of fifteen debt performance indicators (DPIs), which aim to encompass the complete spectrum of government debt management (DeM) operations as well as the overall environment in which these operations are conducted. While the DeMPA does not specify recommendations on reforms and/or capacity and institution building needs, the performance indicators do stipulate a minimum level that should be met under all conditions. Consequently, if the assessment shows that the minimum requirements are not met, this will clearly indicate an area requiring attention or priority reform. The scope of the DeMPA is central government debt management activities and closely related functions such as issuance of loan guarantees, on-lending, and cash flow forecasting and cash balance management. Thus, the DeMPA does not assess the ability to manage the wider public debt, including implicit contingent liabilities (such as liabilities of the pension system, losses of state-owned enterprises (SOE)...

When Is External Debt Sustainable?

Kraay, Aart; Nehru, Vikram
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
The article empirically examines the determinants of debt distress, defined as periods in which countries resort to any of three forms of exceptional finance: significant arrears on external debt, Paris Club rescheduling, and non-concessional International Monetary Fund lending. Probit regressions show that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. The relative importance of these factors varies with the level of development. These results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and the core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. The quantitative implications of these results are examined for the lending strategies of official creditors.

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Ethiopia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.26%
The DeMPA is a methodology for assessing public debt management performance through a comprehensive set of indicators spanning the full range of government debt management functions. The DeMPA tool presents debt performance indicators along with a scoring methodology. This report pertains to a debt management performance assessment of Ethiopia in 2013, and provides an overview of strengths and weaknesses in government debt management. The following are the significant findings of this assessment: 1) no formal debt management strategy in place, although significant progress has been made over time; 2) there is good coordination and information sharing between the fiscal and monetary authorities and the debt managers; 3) There are documented procedures for external and domestic borrowings as well as for on-lending and loan guarantees; 4) an efficient single treasury account is not yet in place, and surplus cash is invested at low rates; 5) there is an understanding of operational risk but not yet a formal framework for operational risk management; and 6) there are complete and timely debt records for all central government debt and guarantees...

Fiscal Space for Infrastructure Borrowing in South-Eastern Europe : A Suggested Approach

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.26%
The seven countries of South Eastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia and Montenegro) are in the process of transition, undertaking significant fiscal adjustment as they seek to move to a path of sustainable growth. Previous high debt has been reduced and/or restructured for most countries, which have committed to a path of fiscal responsibility as one of the key ingredients in the recovery process. Fiscal consolidation is also necessary in order to prepare the ground for future entry into the European Union (EU), including for being in a position to incur expenditures arising from the obligations of future EU membership. A significant amount of new borrowing for infrastructure investment is being contemplated by these countries, often based on bilateral and multilateral funding. This short approach paper seeks to set out the key issues that will need to be kept in mind when evaluating the proposed borrowing and investments. While the note is indicative...

Financial Sector Assessment Program - Albania : Public Debt Management

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
Government debt continues to expand, reaching over all 872 billion, approximately 62 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), as of end-September 2013. Domestic debt grew sharply in the first half of 2013, emanating largely from poor tax revenue performance, together with the accumulation of a large stock of unpaid bills and arrears. External debt creditors comprise multilaterals, bilateral creditors, and private creditors. The concentrated nature of the investor base and the high domestic debt stock limit the choices available to debt management, particularly with regards to extending the maturity of the domestic debt. Public debt management in Albania follows an organized process but will benefit from a number of technical changes. The domestic borrowing plan has been revised frequently due to unexpected flows in the treasury account. In an environment of volatile treasury balances, cash flows safety nets or minimum cash buffers should be implemented. A number of initiatives are recommended to improve the transmission of price signals in the primary market - overall this will provide incentives for secondary market development. To support the development of the secondary market the General Directorate of public debt management should modify its issuance program and focus on key maturities on the yield curve. It is suggested that the issuance program takes a small step in this direction by limiting the number of tenors and focusing on for example...

Multilateral Debt Relief through the Eyes of Financial Markets

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.46%
The economic benefits of debt relief for recipient countries have been the subject of arduous debate, at least partly motivated by the difficulty of identifying the causal effect of debt relief on economic performance-given that performance itself may drive the decision to grant relief. This paper conducts an event study to assess the economic consequences of multilateral debt relief for recipient countries that is robust to these reverse causality issues. It estimates the response of the stock prices of South African multinationals with subsidiaries in those countries to the announcement of debt relief initiatives, and shows that stock prices exhibit a significant increase above those of other firms, especially around the launching of the recent Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative. The improvement in financial markets' assessment of the value of these multinationals is consistent with lower expected levels of future taxation in the recipient countries. Overall, the results are consistent with the "debt overhang" argument for debt relief.

Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.75%
This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for public spending that can be used to estimate government spending multipliers. Loans from official creditors (primarily multilateral development banks and bilateral aid agencies) are a major source of financing for government spending in developing countries. These loans typically finance public spending projects that take several years to implement, with multiple disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The long disbursement periods for these loans imply that the bulk of government spending financed by official creditors in a given year reflects loan approval decisions made in many previous years, before current-year macroeconomic shocks are known. Loan-level commitment and disbursement transactions from the World Bank's Debtor Reporting System database are used to isolate a predetermined component of government spending associated with past loan approvals. This can be used as an instrument to estimate spending multipliers for a large sample of 102 developing countries. The one-year government spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4...

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 1. Review, Analysis, and Outlook

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.39%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Global Development Finance 2011 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.7%
The World Bank's Debtor Reporting System (DRS), from which the aggregates and country tables presented in this report are drawn, was established in 1951. The debt crisis of the 1980s brought increased attention to debt statistics and to the World debt tables, the predecessor to Global development finance. Now the global financial crisis has once again heightened awareness in developing countries of the importance of managing their external obligations. International capital flows to the 128 developing countries reporting to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) fell by 20 percent in 2009 to $598 billion (3.7 percent of Gross National Income (GNI), compared with $744 billion in 2008 (4.5 percent of GNI) and a little over half the peak level of $1,111 billion realized in 2007. Private flows (debt and equity) declined by 27 percent despite a rebound in bond issuance, portfolio equity flows, and short-term debt flows. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and bank lending fell precipitously. By contrast, the net inflow of debt-related financing from official creditors (excluding grants) rose 175 percent as support was stepped up to low- and middle-income countries severely affected by the global financial crisis.

Global Development Finance 2006 : The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.62%
Global Development Finance is the World Bank's annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. Robust global growth and a favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. Many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. Capital flows are changing due to financial integration among developing countries, financial innovations, domestic debt markets, and the global role of the Euro. Net official flows continue to decline as official lending falls and there is more aid and debt relief for the poorest countries. To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows with effective macroeconomic policies, prudent accumulation of reserves, careful management of oil-export revenues, and improvements in standards for the corporate sector.

Policy Selectivity Forgone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa

Birdsall, Nancy; Claessens, Stijn; Diwan, Ishac
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.73%
Authors assess the dynamics behind the high net resource transfers by donors and creditors to Sub-Saharan African countries. Analyzing the determinants of overall net transfers for a panel of 37 recipient countries in 1978-98, Authors find that country policies mattered little. Donors especially bilateral donors actually made greater transfers to countries with high debt, largely owed to multilateral creditors, when policies were 'bad'. Authors conclude that comprehensive debt relief has the potential, though not the certainty, to restore selectivity in support of good policies. That would make development assistance more effective going forward and increase public support in donor countries.

Debt Relief and Beyond : Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

Primo Braga, Carlos A.; Domeland, Dorte
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.54%
Heavily indebted low-income countries benefited from significant debt relief over the past decade. Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), assistance of about $117 billion in nominal terms had been committed to 35 HIPC as of end-April 2009. This debt relief represents about half of the 2007 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of these countries, whose debt burden is expected to drop by more than 80 percent once full debt relief is granted. As a result of relief already provided, debt-service payments have plummeted and expenditures on pro-poor growth programs increased. The book is divided into four parts. Part one examines the design of debt-relief initiatives and provides evidence of its effect on education, health, and economic growth. Part two describes the risks and opportunities developing countries face following debt relief. It identifies how they can safeguard debt sustainability; describes the role of sovereign risk for private sector access to capital; and draws lessons from the experience of market-access countries on the links between sovereign debt and development. Part three examines the concept and various policy proposals of dealing with 'odious' debt. Part four looks at debt management...

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2010/11-2012/13

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.39%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2010 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) is a versatile public debt management tool linked to the medium term fiscal framework that contains prudent revenue projections and planned expenditures consistent with Kenya's economic recovery effort. The strategy seeks to address the terms of new borrowing, including the appropriate mix between domestic and external debt. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2010 MTDS.

The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Direct Investment

Desbordes, Rodolphe; Wei, Shang-Jin
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.55%
This paper examines how financial development influences foreign direct investment. The direct and indirect sector-specific effects that source countries' financial development and destination countries' financial development can have on foreign direct investment are first identified in a conceptual framework. The presence and relative strength of these various channels of influence at the different margins of foreign direct investment are then empirically investigated using unique and underexploited sector-specific bilateral panel data on greenfield foreign direct investment over the period 2003-2006. Causality is established by applying a difference-in-differences approach that exploits the variation in financial vulnerability across manufacturing sectors. The overall effects of higher source countries' financial development and destination countries' financial development on the relative volume of bilateral foreign direct investment in financially vulnerable sectors are large, positive, and complementary. These effects appear to operate mainly at the intensive margin rather than at the extensive margin of foreign direct investment. There is also evidence of direct and indirect effects of financial development. The key findings are robust to the use of data on the number of bilateral Mergers\&Acquisitions transactions. Overall...

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Guinea-Bissau

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work; Economic & Sector Work :: Debt Management Performance Assessment
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.39%
The objective of the mission was to evaluate current government debt management practices in Guinea-Bissau using the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) tool. The assessment will establish a benchmark for monitoring progress over time and provide an analytical background for reform programs developed by the authorities in partnership with their technical and financial partners, and providers of technical assistance in the area of debt management. This report presents the findings of the mission based on information available as at 4 September 2009. Section two explains the DeMPA methodology. Section three provides the country context for the evaluation. Section four presents the mission's detailed assessment of current debt management practices. Section five concludes and discusses potential next steps. This report has been peer-reviewed by debt management experts and World Bank staff, and is being submitted to the authorities of Guinea-Bissau for their review and comment prior to finalization. The final mission report will be transmitted to the authorities for use and disclosure at their sole discretion.