Biblioteca Digital

Master in Finance/ Classificação: G11, O16; Focando-se na França, Alemanha, Itália, Espanha e Reino Unido, este estudo investiga se o seguimento de estratégias de investimento lifecycle proporciona uma maior acumulação de riqueza até à idade da reforma, comparativamente a outras estratégias de investimento. De acordo com as estratégias lifecycle, a exposição dos portfolios a activos com risco diminui e a exposição a activos sem risco aumenta, à medida que a idade dos investidores avança. Verificamos também se os nossos resultados suportam dois argumentos por detrás destas estratégias. O primeiro defende que o desempenho das ações supera o das obrigações no longo prazo e o segundo afirma que o risco das ações diminui no longo prazo. Os nossos resultados demonstram que entre 1993 e 2012, um portfólio investido nos índices acionistas de referência das 5 maiores economias europeias proporcionou um maior retorno anualizado do que um portfólio investido em obrigações a 5 e 10 anos dos mesmos países. Analisando o desvio-padrão dos retornos de um portfólio investido nos índices de referência das 5 maiores economias europeias, concluímos que o risco do investimento em ações aumentou com o horizonte temporal. Finalmente...

Pension funds have been expected to invest in a wide range of securities and provide liquidity to domestic capital markets since they are the most sophisticated investors, with plenty of resources to gather private information and manage portfolios professionally. However, by analyzing unique, monthly asset-level data from the pioneer case of Chile, this paper shows that pension funds tend to herd. This is consistent with pension funds copying each other in their investment strategies as a way to extract information, boost returns, and reduce risk. The authors compute measures of herding across asset classes (equities, government bonds, and private sector bonds) and at different pension fund industry levels. The results show that pension funds herd more in assets for which they have less market information and when risk increases. Moreover, herding is more prevalent across funds that narrowly compete with each other, that is, when comparing funds of the same type across pension fund administrators. There is much less herding within pension fund administrators and across pension fund administrators as a whole. This herding pattern is consistent with incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks...

Using micro-level data on mutual funds from different financial centers investing in equity and bonds, this paper analyzes how investors and managers behave and transmit shocks across countries. The paper shows that the volatility of mutual fund investments is quantitatively driven by investors through injections of capital into, or redemptions out of, each fund, and by managers changing the country weights and cash in their portfolios. Both investors and managers respond to returns and crises, and substantially adjust their investments accordingly. These mechanisms generated large capital reallocations during the global financial crisis. Their behavior tends to be pro-cyclical, reducing their exposure to countries experiencing crises and increasing it when conditions improve. Managers actively change country weights over time, although there is significant short-run "pass-through," meaning that price changes affect country weights. Consequently, capital flows from mutual funds do not seem to stabilize markets and instead expose countries to foreign shocks.

The Bangladesh stock market experienced significant volatility in late 2010 and early 2011 which took stock values high above fundamentals and threatened the stability of the financial system. This note takes a systematic look at the capital markets underpinnings in Bangladesh, including the regulatory framework, the rule-making bodies and enforcement issues. It also addresses systemic weaknesses responsible for market instability which was observed at the end of 2010 and early 2011. The note analyses the outlines specific areas of potential vulnerabilities of securities markets, as assessed against appropriate practice guidelines for stability, sustainability, transparency, and enforcement. A plan of action going forward is also suggested. This note draws on a considerable amount of prior analytical work. Bangladesh capital markets remain ineffective. The government debt securities markets are illiquid preventing the Bangladesh financial system from relying on a market-based yield curve. Bangladesh has yet to develop an active money market. Trading of treasury bills in the secondary market is limited because these instruments...

The study is in response to a request by the Capital Markets Board of Turkey to assist them in developing the corporate bond market in line with best practices globally. The objective of this study is to carry out an assessment of the status of the corporate bond market in Turkey. The study identifies key impediments and solutions to sustainable development, and it presents a roadmap to address the key impediments to the development of a dynamic and robust corporate bond market. This study provides a comprehensive review of the Turkish corporate bond market: chapter two provides an overview of the Turkish economy and financial sector; chapter three discusses key impediments to the vibrant development of the corporate bond; chapter four looks at the Turkish bond market within global bond markets and gives a review of the Turkish government bond market; chapter five discusses issues relating to the investor base, factors constraining the growth of a broad and diversified investor base are highlighted; chapter six provides an overview of derivatives market in Turkey and discusses its important role in enhancing liquidity in the secondary markets for government and corporate bonds. The study concludes with a recommended roadmap to develop the corporate bond market in chapter seven. The annexes cover the latest corporate bond offerings in Turkey and examine the expected transaction costs. Survey details of the survey are also in the annex...

Foreign investors are increasingly important participants in the local currency sovereign bond markets of developing countries. This note provides context on the overall growth of local currency sovereign debt markets in emerging markets and the growth of foreign investor participation in these markets, a short review of the relevant academic literature, and a summary of the sources of foreign demand. The note concludes with a discussion of the implications of growing foreign investor participation for the managers of public domestic debt in developing countries. The aim of the note is to provide a useful, practically-oriented primer for debt managers beginning to engage on this issue, and in particular to facilitate moving the dialogue beyond overly simple categorizations of countries as "emerging markets" and of investors as a homogeneous source of "hot money".

Greece and Italy initiated efforts to improve public debt management and develop their domestic debt markets respectively in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. At that time, both countries suffered from large and rapidly growing public debt, excessive reliance on short-term bills held by commercial banks, a strong preference of households to save in bank deposits, and a weak presence of institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds). Continuing large fiscal deficits, high levels of interest rates and inflation, and serious policy credibility problems impeded the use of long-term instruments. The authors provide a detailed analysis of the characteristics of the instruments that were used in these two countries, their pace of issuance, and their impact on the composition of public debt. The authors note that the main Greco-Roman lesson for developing and transition countries concerns the transition from an excessive reliance on short-term Treasury bills, held by captive banks, to a liquid market with long-term instruments held...

This paper studies channels through which well-known benchmark indexes impact asset allocations and capital flows across countries. The study uses unique monthly micro-level data of benchmark compositions and mutual fund investments during 1996-2012. Benchmarks have important effects on equity and bond mutual fund portfolios across funds with different degrees of activism. Benchmarks explain, on average, around 70 percent of country allocations and have significant impact even on active funds. Benchmark effects are important after controlling for industry, macroeconomic, and country-specific, time-varying effects. Reverse causality does not drive the results. Exogenous, pre-announced changes in benchmarks result in movements in asset allocations mostly when these changes are implemented (not when announced). By impacting country allocations, benchmarks affect capital flows across countries through direct and indirect channels, including contagion. They explain apparently counterintuitive movements in capital flows...

This note brings together some of the policy lessons learnt in the creation of mortgage liquidity facilities around the world. It looks at the main benefits which can be derived from the creation of a mortgage liquidity facility and the conditions under which they can operate most effectively. The note details some of the pre-conditions necessary for the creation of a liquidity facility. There is summary of some of the key techniques used in obtaining security over the mortgage collateral. Lastly two important aspects which are crucial to building confidence in mortgage liquidity facilities are how they are regulated and their corporate governance. The note brings in relevant examples from liquidity facilities which have been set up as far back as 1987 (Malaysia), from developed countries (France) and from facilities still under discussion (West Africa). Overall the note points to the valuable developmental role that mortgage liquidity facilities can play in nascent mortgage markets as an intermediary between capital markets in the primary mortgage markets. This is especially the case in markets where the mortgage lending infra-structure and environment have not developed sufficiently to allow for other more sophisticated alternatives such as securitization or covered bonds.

Government debt continues to expand, reaching over all 872 billion, approximately 62 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), as of end-September 2013. Domestic debt grew sharply in the first half of 2013, emanating largely from poor tax revenue performance, together with the accumulation of a large stock of unpaid bills and arrears. External debt creditors comprise multilaterals, bilateral creditors, and private creditors. The concentrated nature of the investor base and the high domestic debt stock limit the choices available to debt management, particularly with regards to extending the maturity of the domestic debt. Public debt management in Albania follows an organized process but will benefit from a number of technical changes. The domestic borrowing plan has been revised frequently due to unexpected flows in the treasury account. In an environment of volatile treasury balances, cash flows safety nets or minimum cash buffers should be implemented. A number of initiatives are recommended to improve the transmission of price signals in the primary market - overall this will provide incentives for secondary market development. To support the development of the secondary market the General Directorate of public debt management should modify its issuance program and focus on key maturities on the yield curve. It is suggested that the issuance program takes a small step in this direction by limiting the number of tenors and focusing on for example...

Despite typhoon Yolanda and a string of natural disasters throughout 2013, Philippine economic growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2013. Higher growth was underpinned by the robust performance of consumption and services, and supported by the expansion of investments and manufacturing. Like other emerging markets, Philippine financial markets experienced large volatilities as investors responded to the tapering of the United States (U.S.) stimulus program. Monetary and fiscal policy remained supportive of growth. Amid the challenging global environment and the impact of typhoon Yolanda, the Philippines are likely to sustain high growth in the medium-term. Risks to growth include a slower global recovery, financial market volatilities following the tapering of the U.S. stimulus program, potential bubbles in the real estate sector, slower post-typhoon reconstruction, and domestic reform lags. The government responded quickly to the typhoon by rolling out immediate humanitarian aid and preparing the reconstruction assistance on Yolanda (RAY)...

The value of funded pensions can depend critically on the funds' investment performance. To try and protect people's savings, governments often regulate pension funds strictly, particularly when contributions are mandatory. For example, the new funded pension systems in Latin America and Eastern Europe are more stringently regulated than private pensions in OECD countries, which are mainly voluntary. While these pension fund regulations take three different forms, this briefing focuses on one of these: quantitative restrictions on pension funds' portfolios. Quantitative restrictions on the share of particular types of assets held by the fund limit the dispersion of outcomes, particularly for defined contribution schemes. In most mandatory schemes, this leads to a 'single portfolio' environment where members of the scheme are forced to hold basically the same portfolio. Most common are limits on risky assets such as shares and corporate bonds. Often, foreign investments are curtailed. This review includes a look at the adverse effects of portfolio limits...

To analyze the main determinants of secondary market prices of Bulgarian Brady Bonds, the authors investigate to what extent fluctuations in domestic fundamentals affect the bonds secondary market price. They also assess the extent to which external shocks affect the bonds prices. They estimate the long-term relationship between domestic fundamentals and market prices of bonds, using co-integration techniques. In the long-run, they find that gross foreign reserves and exports had a positive effect on bond prices and the real exchange rate and Mexico's nominal exchange rate depreciation had a negative effect. In the short run, the Asian crisis had a negative impact, and Bulgaria's change in political regime and introduction of a currency board had a positive impact. Mexico's economic crisis in 1995 had contagion effects. The authors' empirical results confirm the view that the so-called fundamentals approach should be used to supplement the analysis of spillover effects for Bulgaria Brady bonds.

Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy...

The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan, and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a "B" or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates...

A two-tiered approach to financial market development aimed at both bank and bond market reform would also be complementary to longer term economic development, provided services could be delivered through efficient financial and legal institutions (Chakraborty and Ray 2006) and there was strong protection for investors and sound fiscal and monetary policy management by government (Burger and Warnock 2006b). Historically, local issuers tend to issue in the major currencies (U.S. dollars, yen, and euro), and then either swap the proceeds into local currency (interest rate parity theory suggests this should deliver funds equivalent in yield to what is available in the domestic market) or, more often, sell the foreign currency proceeds in spot foreign exchange markets, leaving the repayment cash flows unhedged. Chakraborty and Ray (2006) recently established that although stronger bank monitoring helps to resolve information asymmetries and agency concerns, it is the efficiency of financial and legal institutions that influences growth outcomes, whether there is a bank- or a market-based financial system. Among them are the need for enabling regulation, including reform of withholding and other foreign investor taxes (Lejot, Arner, and Liu 2006); continuing reform of corporate governance...

This paper analyzes the status of public debt management performance in 17 small states through the findings of the Debt Management Performance Assessment reports. Empirical evidence indicates that the higher the quality of a country's policies and institutions, the better is its capacity to carry debt and withstand exogenous shocks. Borrowing for productive purposes can be an important element in boosting growth of gross domestic product but, conversely, excessive borrowing or poorly structured debt in terms of maturity, currency, or interest rate composition can quickly offset the positive impact, deter new foreign and domestic investment, compromise reform programs, depress growth of gross domestic product, exacerbate the challenge of meeting debt service obligations, and may induce or propagate economic crises. Arguments in favor of sound debt management are especially compelling for small states that must mitigate the particular risks to which their economies are exposed. Against this backdrop, the paper identifies aspects of debt management where small states do relatively well and those where they perform poorly...

The authors offer evidence that U.S. interest rate policy has an important influence in the determination of credit spreads on emerging market bonds over U.S. benchmark treasuries and therefore on their cost of capital. Their analysis improves on the existing literature and understanding by addressing the dynamics of market expectations in shaping views on interest rate and monetary policy changes and by recognizing nonlinearities in the link between U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads, as the level of interest rates affect the market's perceived probability of default and the solvency of emerging market borrowers. For a country with a moderate level of debt, repayment prospects would remain good in the face of an increase in U.S. interest rates, so there would be little increase in spreads. A country close to the borderline of solvency would face a steeper increase in spreads. Simulations of a 200 basis points (bps) increase in U.S. interest rates show an increase in emerging market spreads ranging from 6 bps to 65 bps, depending on debt/GDP ratios. This would be in addition to the increase in the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury rate.

Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances, excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed, however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the region. In resource rich countries, the process was supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries have the potential to greatly expand natural resource production and become major commodity exporters; volatile resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of frontier markets and the development of domestic debt markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs among financing options at a time when global interest rates may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements -- notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies.

In 2007, Barry Bonds hit his 75 6th home run, breaking Hank Aaron's all-time record for most home runs in a Major League career. While it would be expected that such an accomplishment would induce unending praise and adulationfor the new record-holder, Bonds did not receive the treatment typically reserved for a beloved baseball hero. The purpose of this thesis is to assess media representations of the 2007 home run chase in order to shed light upon the factors which led to the mixed representations which accompanied BOlTds ' assault on Aaron's record. Drawingfrom Roland Barthes ' concept of myth, this thesis proposes that Bonds was portrayed in predominantly negative ways because he was seen as failing to embody the values of baseball's mythology. Using a qualitative content analysis of three major American newspapers, this thesis examines portrayals of Bonds and how he was shown both to represent and oppose elements from baseball's mythology, such as youth, and a distant, agrarian past. Recognizing the ways in which baseball is associated with American life, the media representations of Bonds are also evaluated to discern whether he was portrayed as personifYing a distinctly American set of values. The results indicate that...