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Oil Intensities and Oil Prices : Evidence for Latin America

Alaimo, Veronica; Lopez, Humberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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36.42%
Crude oil prices have dramatically increased over the past years and are now at a historical maximum in nominal terms and very close to it in real terms. It is difficult to argue, at least for net oil importers, that higher oil prices have a positive impact on welfare. In fact, the negative relationship between oil prices and economic activity has been well documented in the literature. Yet, to the extent that higher oil prices lead to lower oil consumption, it would be possible to argue that not all the effects of a price increase are negative. Climate change concerns have been on the rise in recent years and fossil fuel consumption is generally viewed as one of the main causes behind it. Thus this paper explores whether higher oil prices contribute to lowering oil intensities (that is, oil consumption per unit of gross domestic product). The findings show that following an increase in oil prices, OECD countries tend to reduce oil intensity. However, the same result does not hold for Latin America (and more generally for middle-income countries) where oil intensities appear to be unaffected by oil prices. The paper also explores why this is so.

Oil Price Risks

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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36.41%
Oil prices more than tripled between January 2004 and March 2008. The effects can be hard on countries with large net oil imports relative to income. This note sets out a measure of vulnerability to oil price shocks and breaks it down into its components. That allows cross-country benchmarking and helps to show how changes in such factors as energy efficiency and the real exchange rate can make countries more vulnerable or less so.

Assessing the Impact of Higher Oil Prices in Latin America

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.43%
For some Latin American countries - especially, the oil importers in the Caribbean - rising energy prices could pose a significant threat to their current account sustainability, particularly if they are accompanied by other negative shocks. In some countries the fiscal costs associated with subsidies to protect domestic consumers have been considerable so far. Hence, a better understanding of the effects of high oil prices and potential responses in the region is needed. This report evaluates the effects of oil shocks on economic performance for a sample of selected Latin American countries. The effects at the country level depend not only on the structural characteristics of the economy, such as the degree of dependence on oil, but also on the policy reactions to rising prices. Among the countries included in our study we have: large economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico), net oil exporters (Venezuela and Ecuador), and net oil importers (Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana and Honduras).

Oil Price Risks and Pump Price Adjustments

Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.43%
Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil price increases, defined as the share of gross domestic product spent on net oil imports, rose considerably. Considering medians, low-income countries had the highest vulnerability in 2008 and the highest increase in vulnerability between 1999 and 2008. When changes in vulnerability were decomposed into several contributing factors, more than two-thirds of 170 countries studied were found to have offset the increase in the value of oil consumption by reducing the oil intensity of gross domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world, driven by falling energy intensity and, to a lesser extent, the oil share of energy. This study also examines the degree of pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between January 2009 and January 2012, when oil prices in nominal U.S. dollars more than doubled. Retail fuel prices varied by two orders of magnitude in 2012...

Caucasus Transport Corridor for Oil and Oil Products

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.42%
This study evaluates the potential demand for oil and oil products transport via the existing rail corridor in the Caucasus, taking into consideration the competition from alternative routes. It identifies potential bottlenecks that would prevent the potential traffic from using the corridor and proposes solutions for the physical and operational improvements to the corridor needed to attract the potential traffic. The report is based on a review of studies of oil production and transport, and interviews with oil producers, transportation intermediaries, railways, and ports in the region. The report begins with a discussion of the outlook for Caspian oil production and transport options for oil. Next, it discusses the physical and commercial constraints on the Caucasus rail corridor. It ends with a market analysis, strategies for attracting business, and significant actions needed to address the problems outlined previously in the report.

Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment of Oil and Gas Development in Mauritania

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.63%
The objectives of this Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA) are as follows: To identify the social and environmental impacts which could be generated by oil and gas development, evaluating the scope and probability of these impacts due to increased activities in the onshore and offshore; to put forward recommendations to avoid, manage and/or attenuate these impacts; to facilitate the integration of these measures into a coherent policy and to ensure its application; and to help in capacity building and training of Government officials in the management oil and gas sector impacts, in particular the Ministries of Environment and Petroleum, Energy and Mines. It is divided into two parts. Part A contains the project background; hydrocarbon potential trend scenarios; critical environmental and social risks; and key SESA findings. Part B contains background and supporting information used in development of the SESA: Description of methodology used in the SESA; legal, regulatory and institutional framework; development trends...

Pakistan : Oil and Gas Review

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.41%
Substantial progess has been made in Pakistan in the restructuring and reform of the oil and gas sectors, deregulation of prices, and privatization of selected assets. The reforms have enhanced transparency, making decisionmakers aware of the various aspects of the business. This review documents the accomplishments to date, and attempts to identify measures that merit priority attention with respect to natural gas, petroleum downstream, and macroeconomic management. The report concludes that Pakistan would benefit greatly from pursuing the reform program it initiated in 2000. The remaining measures will enable the government to unlock the full indigenous resource potential to accelerate growth and improve the welfare of the population. It would release scarce public resources from the hydrocarbon sector, which could then be mobilized for other priority needs like health and education. The reform process would be greatly facilitated through consultations with stakeholders, and using international experience in oil and gas sector reform. A competitive...

How Much Does an Increase in Oil Prices Affect the Global Economy? Some Insights from a General Equilibrium Analysis

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.41%
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

The Vulnerability of African Countries to Oil Price Shocks : Major Factors and Policy Options, The Case of Oil Importing Countries

Bacon, Robert; Mattar, Adib
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.43%
Apart from a few oil exporters, Sub-Saharan Africa consists of a large number of low-income countries, many of which are highly dependent on oil imports as a source of primary energy. The purpose of this study is to provide information on a number of aspects of energy and oil use in these countries, with a view to highlighting the vulnerabilities of the different countries against sustained or even increasing oil prices, and explore some of the policy implications. The topics investigated are: 1) How vulnerable is each country at present to a sustained oil price rise measured in terms of the ratio of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP), and in terms of its ability to pay as indexed by the ratio of net external debt to GDP? 2) What are the energy and oil intensities of the economies and what are the recent trends (measured by the ratio of energy use to GDP)? Can countries expect that energy and oil intensity will rise or fall as the level of development improves? 3) What is the oil fuel dependence of the economy...

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices

Devarajan, Shanta; Mottaghi, Lili
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.43%
This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief : Plunging Oil Prices

Lili Mottaghi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.41%
In the three months since most observers, including the World Bank, issued their last forecasts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region has changed substantially. Political tensions have eased somewhat with presidential and legislative elections completed in a few countries. This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focused on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. Several assumptions are also made about future oil prices taking into account several variables. All projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015.

Low Oil Prices

Boratynski, Jakub; Kasek, Leszek
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60 percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA). The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in 2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that...

Natural Oil Companies and Value Creation : Volume 2. Case Studies

Tordo, Silvana; Tracy, Brandon S.; Arfaa, Noora
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
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Approximately two billion dollars a day of petroleum are traded worldwide, which makes petroleum the largest single item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. Petroleum represents the larger share in total energy use for most net exporters and net importers. While petroleum taxes are a major source of income for more than 90 countries in the world, poor countries net importers are more vulnerable to price increases than most industrialized economies. This paper has five chapters. Chapter one describes the key features of upstream, midstream, and downstream petroleum operations and how these may impact value creation and policy options. Chapter two draws on ample literature and discusses how changes in the geopolitical and global economic environment and in the host governments' political and economic priorities have affected the rationale for and behavior of National Oil Companies' (NOCs). Rather than providing an in-depth analysis of the philosophical reasons for creating aNOC, this chapter seeks to highlight the special nature of NOCs and how it may affect their existence...

Natural Oil Companies and Value Creation

Tordo, Silvana; Tracy, Brandon S.; Arfaa, Noora
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
Approximately two billion dollars a day of petroleum are traded worldwide, which makes petroleum the largest single item in the balance of payments and exchanges between nations. Petroleum represents the larger share in total energy use for most net exporters and net importers. While petroleum taxes are a major source of income for more than 90 countries in the world, poor countries net importers are more vulnerable to price increases than most industrialized economies. This paper has five chapters. Chapter one describes the key features of upstream, midstream, and downstream petroleum operations and how these may impact value creation and policy options. Chapter two draws on ample literature and discusses how changes in the geopolitical and global economic environment and in the host governments' political and economic priorities have affected the rationale for and behavior of National Oil Companies' (NOCs). Rather than providing an in-depth analysis of the philosophical reasons for creating aNOC, this chapter seeks to highlight the special nature of NOCs and how it may affect their existence...

Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries

Bacon, Robert; Kojima, Masami
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.43%
This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small...

Economy-Wide Impact of Oil Discovery in Ghana

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
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46.4%
Ghana's oil will start to flow in 2011, maybe even before, and most of its known reserves will be extracted in the immediate years after. The promise of oil generates expectations of all sorts, the more so as Ghana currently grapples with a macroeconomic crisis of significant proportions. This overview discusses the Ghana-specific nature of these challenges and explores possible options to address them. In doing so, it builds on seven thematic chapters which look at different aspects of the question: (1) oil facts, (2) political economy, (3) public financial management, (4) infrastructure, (5) private sector development, (6) agriculture, and (7) poverty. While the overview tries to bring together the findings of these different chapters, further details and discussions on each of these topics can be found in o f the chapters themselves. It concludes that while oil revenue will not be large enough to radically transform Ghana, it could, if improperly managed, impose enough stress on non-oil sectors to severely undermine Ghana's medium term development prospects. Hence the huge premium and responsibilities put on Ghana's successive authorities to wisely manage the oil wealth to promote the development of the non-oil sectors.

Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean

Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel; San Vicente Portes, Luis; García, Luis Enrique
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.91%
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels...

Management of Oil Windfalls in Mexico : Historical Experience and Policy Options for the Future

Everhart, Stephen; Duval-Hernandez, Robert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.41%
The macroeconomic impact of commodity windfalls has provided fertile ground for research since the 1970s. Particularly affected are developing countries that rely heavily on commodity exports. in the case of oil windfalls, cross-country experience is vast: Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nigeria, the Russian Federation, and Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela have all been buffered by such windfalls. The authors investigate Mexico's experience. They provide an overview of oil's impact on the Mexican economy and of the management of oil rents engineered by the government from the 1970s to date. A third of government revenues come from the hydrocarbon sector--especially oil exports. The reliance of public finance on a single commodity means that shocks threaten the economy's fiscal balance and stability. Policy options for protecting the economy from volatility in oil revenues without eliminating the benefits from rising prices include a stabilization fund and hedging strategies on international markets, which the authors discuss. The stabilization fund smoooths consumption and reduces the costs associated volatile spending. The fund and hedging strategies can complement each other--the fund working as the main recipient of revenues...

Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia's Public Finances

Agustina, Cut Dian R.D.; Arze del Granado, Javier; Bulman, Tim; Fengler, Wolfgang; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.82%
Indonesia's oil revenues and fuel subsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda. This paper estimates the impact of higher international oil prices on the Indonesian government's fiscal position in 2008 and beyond. It analyzes the interactions between government revenues and expenditures, as well as international oil prices, energy subsidies, and inter-governmental transfers. Looking at the impact of oil prices over US$100 per barrel, the paper presents five main findings. First, despite record high oil prices, the government's oil and gas revenues have been decreasing relative to non-oil and gas revenues since 2001. Second, fuel subsides will reach record levels in 2008 while electricity subsidies have been increasing even faster. Third, the paper finds that most of the fuel subsidy that directly benefits households goes to the richest 20 percent. Fourth, even at levels above US$100 per barrel, the government receives more revenues from oil and gas than it spends on energy subsidies. However...

Integrated sustainability analysis of innovative uses of forest biomass. Bio-oil as an energy vector

Puy Marimon, Neus
Fonte: [Barcelona] : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Publicador: [Barcelona] : Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona,
Tipo: Tesis i dissertacions electròniques; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2011 ENG
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Aquesta investigació ofereix un enfocament multidisciplinari, des d'un punt de vista ambiental, social, econòmic i tecnològic, per a estudiar nous usos de la biomassa forestal utilitzant diferents metodologies, com són els grups de discussió, l'anàlisi del cicle de vida i experimental en una planta pilot de piròlisi. En primer lloc, es realitza una avaluació integrada per mitjà de grups de discussió per a identificar les barreres polítiques, socials i ambientals que han impedit que els sistemes integrats de biomassa forestal hagin continuat desenvolupant‐se en el context mediterrani. Els resultats mostren que, tot i les grans oportunitats i apostes per aquests sistemes, és necessari considerar factors socioecològics específics, com ara els règims de propietat, la baixa productivitat dels boscos mediterranis, la feble capacitat institucional, logística i dificultats d'abastament i la falta de rendibilitat econòmica dels productes forestals, si la biomassa forestal ha de contribuir decisivament a la producció de fonts d'energia renovables a Europa. En segon lloc, es duu a terme una anàlisi del cicle de vida d'una planta de gasificació de biomassa forestal i de fusta de post‐consum. Aquest estudi mostra que la biomassa forestal necessita majors requeriments d'energia...