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Beyond Balanced Growth

Kongsamut, Piyabha ; Rebelo, Sergio ; Xie, Danyang
Fonte: University of Rochester. Rochester Center for Economic Research. Publicador: University of Rochester. Rochester Center for Economic Research.
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.2%
Also published as NBER Working Paper #6159 (1997); CEPR Discussion Paper #1693 (1997); International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/01/85 (2001); and Kongsamut, Piyabha, Rebelo, Sergio, and Danyang Xie. "Beyond Balanced Growth." Review of Economic Studies v68, n4 (October 2001): 869-82.; One of the most striking regularities of the growth process is the massive reallocation of labor from agriculture into industry and services. Balanced growth models are commonly used in macroeconomics because they are consistent with the well-known Kaldor facts about economic growth. These models are, however, inconsistent with the structural change dynamics that are a central feature of economic development. This paper discusses models with generalized balanced growth paths. These paths retain some of the key features of balanced growth but are consistent with the observed labor reallocations dynamics.

Industrial Structure, Appropriate Technology and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries

Lin, Justin Yifu; Zhang, Pengfei
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.17%
The authors develop an endogenous growth model that combines structural change with repeated product improvement. That is, the technologies in one sector of the model become not only increasingly capital-intensive, but also progressively productive over time. Application of the basic model to less developed economies shows that the (optimal) industrial structure and the (most) appropriate technologies in less developed economies are endogenously determined by their factor endowments. A firm in a less developed country that enters a capital-intensive, advanced industry in a developed country would be nonviable owing to the relative scarcity of capital in the factor endowments of less developed countries.

Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India

Chaudhuri, Shubham; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.13%
The paper examines the ways in which recent economic growth has been uneven in China and India and what this has meant for inequality and poverty. Drawing on analyses based on existing household survey data and aggregate data from official sources, the authors show that growth has indeed been uneven-geographically, sectorally, and at the household level-and that this has meant uneven progress against poverty, less poverty reduction than might have been achieved had growth been more balanced, and an increase in income inequality. The paper then examines why growth was uneven and why this should be of concern. The discussion is structured around the idea that there are both "good" and "bad" inequalities-drivers and dimensions of inequality and uneven growth that are good or bad in terms of what they imply for both equity and long-term growth and development. The authors argue that the development paths of both China and India have been influenced by, and have generated, both types of inequalities and that while good inequalities-most notably those that reflect the role of economic incentives-have been critical to the growth experience thus far, there is a risk that bad inequalities-those that prevent individuals from connecting to markets and limit investment and accumulation of human capital and physical capital-may undermine the sustainability of growth in the coming years. The authors argue that policies are needed that preserve the good inequalities-continued incentives for innovation and investment-but reduce the scope for bad ones...

Responsible Growth for the New Millennium : Integrating Society, Ecology and the Economy

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.01%
This report builds on the consensus developed at the August 2002 Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development. It draws on the effort to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. And it looks beyond, to 2050, to envision a future that is far more prosperous and more equitable than today. This work raises some hard questions: How do we ensure that the progress achieved by 2015 is sustainable? What quality of growth will be required to attain this vision? Long-term thinking is essential in dealing with sustainability issues (economic change, ecological threats). A consensus has emerged about the need to move toward a new development path, one that integrates economic growth with environmental responsibility and social equity. The World Bank has been advocating this vision of responsible growth, together with the concept that poverty reduction is not just an end in itself but also a precondition for peaceful coexistence and ecological survival. The report examines the drivers of growth-agriculture...

Kosovo, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia : Economic and Social Reforms for Peace and Reconciliation

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56%
The report discusses the principal economic, and social reform policy tasks, Kosovo is facing, following the decade-long losses due to civic exclusion of a major part of its ethnic population, the absence of investments, and the neglect of physical, and human capital, a period which culminated in the 1999 conflict. It intends to inform on the framework of the United Nations Interim Administration in Kosovo, i.e., the consolidation of peace, by fostering social reconciliation, towards achieving sustainable economic growth in the province. The key challenges to the political economy address: 1) the formulation of a sustainable budget, increasingly financed through local taxation, hence, with reduced reliance on external donor support. Fiscal institutions need to be developed to ensure efficient public spending; 2) the establishment of trade liberalization, and a customs regime, to increase the potential for growth, and exports, allowing as well to benefit from the arrangements fostered by the Stability Pact...

EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #28, December 2013 : Promoting Shared Prosperity during a Weak Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
Economic prospects for the 11 European Union (EU) member states that joined after 2004 started to improve during 2013, as the situation in the Euro area stabilized and domestic policies bolstered growth. Economic growth across the EU11 is expected to continue to pick up in 2014 and to become more balanced, with rising domestic demand. Fiscal adjustment will resume in 2014, with domestic demand helping to rebuild revenue, but at a relatively gradual pace in order to support economic growth. Rising global interest rates coupled with volatile capital markets, can slow the Euro area recovery and hamper domestic demand, particularly investment, in EU11. The bottom forty percent in the EU11 tends to be concentrated in low skilled, young or older unemployed, and minority groups. Countries will need to accelerate economic growth and job creation, in an environment in which fiscal and credit constraints are more binding and household coping mechanisms have been weakened by the crisis. This report covers economic developments...

Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina

Cline, William R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56%
The author reviews the debate on the causes of Argentina�s economic collapse in late 2001 and 2002 and examines the measures needed to help restore sustainable growth. Some analysts stress fiscal imbalances, others overvaluation of the peso under the convertibility plan, and others external shocks. Cline judges that all three contributed substantially, but that it was their inflammatory interaction with domestic political unraveling that forced the bad-equilibrium outcome. He reviews the nascent recovery since the second half of 2002 and the important success of avoiding hyperinflation. Looking forward, the author�s analysis underscores the importance of strengthening fiscal performance, in part by increasing relatively low collections of value added taxes. He stresses the need for reform of the system of revenue sharing with the provinces; the importance of strengthening the banking system, which was severely weakened by asymmetric conversion of assets and liabilities from dollars to pesos; and the need to arrive at equitable restructuring of utility tariffs to reestablish confidence of foreign direct investors in the rules of the game. Restructuring government debt is also central to restoring growth. A simple model indicates that a relatively ambitious target for the primary fiscal surplus and a restricted set of senior-status debt will be needed to limit the haircut on junior debt to amounts compatible with longer-term creditor perceptions of fairness. The author also considers the new dynamics of bargaining with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He judges that although conditionality is arguably appropriately less stringent as only rollover is involved...

EU11 Regular Economic Report, Issue #29, July 2014 : Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.02%
Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU111 in 2014, and continues to strengthen in 2015. Overall EU11 GDP growth is forecast to strengthen from 1.4 percent in 2013 to 2.6 percent in 2014. The initial reliance on net export growth, with rising demand from the rest of the EU, is gradually giving way to more balanced growth as domestic demand picks-up, notably in Romania, Slovakia and Poland. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. The overall EU11 fiscal deficit is expected to drop to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2014 and to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015. However, there is a need for larger adjustments in Croatia and Slovenia to achieve sustainable deficit and debt levels. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks, mainly on the downside, as the global financial situation remains fragile. While labor market conditions have started to improve, the pace of job creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likely to be gradual.

Thailand : Northeast Economic Development Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Poverty Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56%
This report is about balanced economic development in the Northeast of Thailand. It is about growth and poverty reduction, cities and villages, enterprises and workers, skills and education, infrastructure and trade, and rice and silk. Northeast economic development is only part of Thailand's development challenge, but it is among the most important. We look back at how the Northeast has fared in terms of growth, poverty reduction and social capital over the last decades relative to other regions in Thailand. The report examines today's challenges, analyzes the constraints facing those who seek to meet these challenges, and then proposes an agenda that both outlines a general strategy and the specific priority actions.

Puzzles of Economic Growth

Balcerowicz, Leszek; Rzonca, Andrzej
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.08%
Looking at the economic growth of seemingly similar countries one can find striking differences. Why has Australia gotten so much ahead of New Zealand, in spite of the latter being held up as a paragon of free market reform? How is it possible that Austria, with its persistently oversized state enterprise sector, has managed to (nearly) catch up with Switzerland? How can we account for the differences in economic growth between Estonia and Slovenia, and which of these two countries has been more successful at systemic transformation? Why is Mexico so much poorer than Spain, despite having been wealthier all the way into the 1960s? Why has Venezuela, which in 1950 had a per capita income higher than that of Norway and remains a major exporter of oil, slipped behind Chile? Why is Costa Rica lagging behind Puerto Rico, even though in the 1970s the U.S. territory's fast development slowed to a crawl and is now far below other comparable island economies? Why has 'communist' China outstripped 'capitalist' India? Why has Pakistan's growth lagged behind that of Indonesia...

Montenegro : Beyond the Peak, Growth Policies and Fiscal Constraints, Public Expenditure and Institutional Review; Crna Gora - Sa druge strane uspona : politike rasta i fiskalna organieenja

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Public Expenditure Review; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.01%
In 2007, Montenegro was one of the world's fastest growing non-oil economies. The country reaped the benefits from its comprehensive, pre-independence reform program. After the international recognition of statehood had removed the lingering uncertainty over Montenegro's political status, investors reassessed the country's relative attractiveness as a site for business, responding positively to (i) the implementation of the privatization and structural-reform agenda; (ii) the provision of a low-tax, pro-business environment; and (iii) a clearly defined European perspective. In response, investment surged. Capital inflows from foreign direct investment (FDI), largely absent during the first half of this decade, reached a level of 30 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2006 and 40 percent in 2007, fueling domestic demand and stimulating economic growth. Real GDP grew at double-digit rates in 2007, an outcome that stands in stark contrast to the period of economic anemia characterizing Montenegro's pre-independence years. In this buoyant environment...

China's Pattern of Growth : Moving to Sustainability and Reducing Inequality

Kuijs, Louis; Wang, Tao
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
The authors study the sources and pattern of China's impressive economic growth over the past 25 years and show that key issues currently of concern to policymakers-widening inequality, rural poverty, and resource intensity-are to a large extent rooted in China's growth strategy, and resolving them requires a rebalancing of policies. Using both macroeconomic level and sector data and analyses, the authors extend the growth accounting framework to decompose the sources of labor productivity growth. They find that growth of industrial production, led by a massive investment effort that boosted the capital/labor ratio, has been the single most important factor driving GDP and overall labor productivity growth since the early 1990s. The shift of labor from low-productivity agriculture has been limited, and, hence, contributed only marginally to overall labor productivity growth. The productivity gap between agriculture and the rest of the economy has continued to widen, leading to increased rural-urban income inequality. Looking ahead, the authors calibrate two alternative scenarios. They show that continuing with the current growth pattern would further increase already high investment and saving needs to unsustainable levels, lower urban employment growth...

Contribution of Information and Communication Technologies to Growth

Zhen-Wei Qiang, Christine; Pitt, Alexander; Ayers, Seth
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.04%
Thee worldwide development of information and communication technology (ICT) has accelerated dramatically over the past decade. Increased ICT production and use has the potential to influence economic growth positively. This paper focuses on the linkage between ICT and output growth and summarizes the findings in the literature on the contribution of ICT to economic growth arising from capital deepening and increases in total factor productivity. It looks at the methodologies used to assess the magnitude of the different channels through which ICT influences productivity growth, summarizes the key factors that increase and obstruct ICT expansion, and outlines the challenges developing countries face in maximizing ICT's contribution to growth. Strengthening institutions to create an environment that attracts ICT investment and promotes ICT use; exploiting network and spillover effects by creating domestic demand; and promoting "adaptation close to use" to match local capacity and local needs have been identified as policies to surmount these challenges.

Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 1, Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows...

Madagascar : Back to the Future on the Road to Sustained and Balanced Growth, Country Economic Memorandum, Volume 2, Annexes

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
The objective of this study is to accompany Malagasy authorities in their transition towards economic emergence. If the contribution of foreign capital and the abundance of natural resources should help the Malagasy economy escape from the poverty trap by increasing its domestic savings and investment capacities, as well as its technological capacities. International experience reminds us that this transition is far from being automatic. Indeed, there are more examples of countries that have failed than of those who have succeeded. The successes of Chile, Tunisia, Malaysia, Mauritius, and Botswana can inspire the Malagasy policy makers while showing them which economic policy choices become imperative. This study is divided into four parts. The first part begins with an analysis of Madagascar's economic performance, trying to recall its fragility in spite of the good results recorded over these last few years. This fragility will be highlighted through the relatively narrow basis of the economic growth that has greatly relied on foreign capital inflows...

Avoiding the Fragility Trap in Africa

Andrimihaja, Noro Aina; Cinyabuguma, Matthias; Devarajan, Shantayanan
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.16%
Not only do Africa's fragile states grow more slowly than non-fragile states, but they seem to be caught in a "fragility trap". For instance, the probability that a fragile state in 2001 was still fragile in 2009 was 0.95. This paper presents an economic model where three features -- political instability and violence, insecure property rights and unenforceable contracts, and corruption -- conspire to create a slow-growth-poor-governance equilibrium trap into which these fragile states can fall. The analysis shows that, by addressing the three problems, fragile countries can emerge from the fragility trap and enjoy a level of sustained economic growth. But addressing these issues requires resources, which are scarce because external aid is often tailored to the country's performance and cut back when there is instability, insecurity, and corruption. The implication is that, even if aid is seemingly unproductive in these weak-governance environments, it could be hugely beneficial if it is invested in such a way that it helps these countries tackle the root causes of instability...

Making Spatial Change in Pakistan Cities Growth Enhancing

Yuen, Belinda; Choi, Songsu
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.01%
Cities' development matters to Pakistan. It is central to economic growth, job creation and quality of life. This is also one of the core themes in the 2011 Government of Pakistan Framework for Economic Growth (FEG). This paper explores the conditions for growth-enhancing spatial change in Pakistan s cities. Cities' development matters to Pakistan. Two strands of analysis are developed. First, it reviews the performance and impact of land use planning in Pakistan's cities while understanding the institutional culture and rules of the game of urban development practices. Given limited availability of urban data, much of this analysis is based on Pakistan's most urbanized province: Punjab, and large cities, primarily Lahore and Karachi. Second, it uses meta-analysis to suggest an agenda of policy options and priorities that could strengthen Pakistan's prudent implementation of spatial potentials and help materialize its cities' creative capital.Following the introduction the paper examines the critical role cities have in Pakistan's economy and development performance. It provides an analysis of Pakistan's current approach to urban development...

A Dynamic Model of Tourism and Economic Growth: the Role of Physical and Human Capital

Brida, Juan Gabriel; London, Silvia; Rojas, Mara Leticia
Fonte: Economics Bulletin Publicador: Economics Bulletin
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:ar-repo/semantics/artículo; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Formato: application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.94%
This paper study the relationships between tourism and economic growth by introducing a dynamic model whose ingredients are an economy producing a non-traded consumption good consumed by domestic residents and foreign tourists and a capital good. The model analyses the relationships between tourism growth, physical and human capital accumulation and changes in the terms of trade. From this analysis, several interesting results are obtained that depend on initial conditions of the main variables and on variations in terms of trade.. First, it is shown that tourism allows local population to enjoy a given welfare level with a lower saving rate than they would have in a closed economic system. Second, it is revealed that along the balanced growth path, the rate of human capital accumulation in the tourism industry acts negatively on the rate of change in the terms of trade. A more productive industry becomes more cheaper and cheaper for the rest of the world and for the residents themselves. Third, it is shown that when prices steadily increase, the model implies an unbalanced relationship between domestic and tourism demands. In that case, the economy could assign all production to internal consumption, vanishing the tourism industry.: or...

Trends in hours and economic growth

Ngai, L. Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Conference or Workshop Item; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 05/01/2007 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
We study long-run trends in market hours of work and employment shifts across economic sectors driven by uneven TFP growth in market and home production. We focus on the structural transformation between agriculture, manufacturing and services and on the marketization of home production. The model can rationalize the observed falling or Ushaped pattern for aggregate hours, the shift from agriculture to services and balanced aggregate growth. We find support for the model’s predictions in long-run US data.

Trends in hours and economic growth

Ngai, L. Rachel; Pissarides, Christopher
Fonte: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /08/2006 EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.06%
We study long-run trends in aggregate market hours of work and shifts across economic sectors within the context of balanced aggregate growth. We show that a model of many goods and uneven TFP growth in market and home production can rationalize the observed falling or U-shaped aggregate hours and structural change across market sectors. The dynamics of market hours are driven by substitutions between home and market production and depend critically on the existence of many market sectors. Extensions show how the model can explain rising leisure and more complex hours dynamics without violating balanced aggregate growth.