Biblioteca Digital

The present study aims to verify whether the balance-of-payments constrained growth approach is suitable for explaining the Portuguese growth performance during the last decades. For that, we adopt “Thirlwall’s Law” that predicts actual growth by the ratio of the exports growth relative to the income-elasticity of the demand for imports. The income-elasticity of imports, essential for the entire analysis, is obtained from the estimation of the imports function by 2SLS, assuming that domestic growth is endogenous. To smooth cyclical variations, 15-year overlapping periods are considered in the computation of “Thirlwall’s Law”, assuming that income-elasticity with respect to imports is either constant or variable over time. It is found that the Law is a good instrument for predicting actual growth in Portugal and this result is reinforced by performing the McCombie test. Our results reveal that Portugal grew slightly higher relatively to the OECD countries in the entire period and this is consistent with the income-elasticity of the demand for exports exceeding that of imports, as “Thirlwall’s Law” implies. Portugal also grew slightly faster than the rate consistent with the balance-of-payments equilibrium, accumulating external deficits over time. Dividing the sample in the pre and post-adhesion period to the EU...

Este trabalho busca contribuir para a literatura teórica sobre crescimento e desenvolvimento econômico dentro da escola de pensamento keynesiana/kaldoriana por meio de uma estrutura analítica que procura reconciliar ambos os modelos, tanto o de crescimento liderado pelas exportações (Dixon & Thirlwall, 1975) quanto o de crescimento restringido pelo balanço de pagamentos (Thirlwall, 1979) em uma especificação matemática mais geral. Feito isso, partindo do modelo revisitado, faremos algumas considerações acerca do papel da taxa de câmbio como ferramenta de política macroeconômica por meio de simulações como experimento teórico.; This work attempts to contribute theoretically to the literature on growth and development within the Keynesian-Kaldorian school of thought by providing an analytical framework that seeks to reconciliate both the export-led (Dixon & Thirlwall, 1975) and the balance-of-payments constrained growth (Thirlwall, 1979) models into a further general mathematical specification. Provided the revisited model, we will assess the role played by the exchange rate as a macroeconomic policy tool by using computational simulation as a theoretical experiment.

Este trabalho busca integrar dois importantes ramos da literatura pós-keynesiana: a chamada abordagem stock-flow consistent (SFC), cujas origens estão em trabalhos como Godley e Cripps (1983) e Godley (1997), entre outros; e a teoria do crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos (BPC), inaugurada no modelo seminal de Thirlwall (1979). Após uma breve revisão bibliográfica de ambas as literaturas, são construídas um modelo stock-flow consistent com crescimento e restrição externa. Utiliza-se o modelo para simular diferentes tipos de fluxos internacionais de capitais, que demonstram ter efeitos bastante distintos sobre a economia local.; The aim of this dissertation is the integration of two important branches of the Post Keynesian literature: the so called stock-flow consistent (SFC) approach, with origins that can be found in Godley and Cripps (1983) and Godley (1997), among others; and the theory of balance of payments constrained growth (BPC), initiated in the seminal model of Thirlwall (1979). After a brief review of both literatures, a stock-flow consistent model with growth and a balance of payments constraint is developed. The model is used to simulate international capital flows of various kinds, which demonstrate to have very different effects on the local economy.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. of Economics, 1982. ; Neoclassical general equilibrium models are employed in this thesis to analyze several questions of interest in international finance. In the first chapter of the thesis an intertemporal choice-theoretic model of the joint behavior of the exchange rate and the current account is constructed. The model yields a set of predictions about the relationship between movements in the exchange rate and the current account and important economic variables such as income, government spending, and the money supply. It turns out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the current account is theoretically ambiguous. In particular, the association between movements in these two variables depends in an essential manner on the nature of exogenous disturbances affecting them simultaneously. Finally, the role for an optimal monetary policy and the choice of exchange rate regime for a small open economy are discussed. In the second chapter the model employed in the first chapter is extended to allow for the inclusion of a nontraded goods sector. Also, the discussion in this chapter is focused on the balance of payments rather than the exchange rate, so as to highlight the fact that the model used in the first chapter is flexible enough to analyze either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system. This extension permits an investigation of the pattern of comovement between current account...

Petroleum products are used across the entire economy in every country. Gasoline and diesel are the primary fuels used in road transport. Oil is used in power generation, accounting for eleven percent of total electricity generated in Africa in 2007. Adequate and reliable supply of transport services and electricity in turn are essential for economic development. Households use a variety of petroleum products: kerosene is used for lighting, cooking, and heating; liquefied petroleum gas for cooking and heating; and gasoline and diesel for private vehicles as well as captive power generation. Prices users pay for these petroleum products have macroeconomic and microeconomic consequences. At the macroeconomic level, oil price levels can affect the balance of payments, gross domestic product (GDP), and, where fuel prices are subsidized, government budgets, contingent liabilities, or both. At the microeconomic level, higher oil prices lower effective household income in three ways. First, households pay more for petroleum products they consume directly. Seventy percent of Sub-Saharan Africans are not yet connected to electricity; most without access rely on kerosene for lighting. Second...

Beginning in the late 1980s, Argentina implemented a series of reforms that were revolutionary in speed and scope, including trade liberalization. After the implementation of these policies, a record number of antidumping petitions came forward. Under a situation of high inflation, the government reinforced its fiscal and monetary policies by announcing that it would minimize the use of such measures. The flexible disciplines of the existing domestic antidumping regulations facilitated this objective. Later, when the GATT/WTO-sanctioned trade remedies were implemented, the government made a serious attempt to establish discipline by including liberal regulations and creating special institutional arrangements. A presumption built into the construction of the new mechanisms was that adhering to WTO requirements would strengthen the resistance against protection. This presumption turned out to be false. Changing circumstances, including severe peso overvaluation, had significant effects on the number and outcome of antidumping investigations. Regarding safeguards, the government followed the letter and the spirit of the WTO agreement. In relation to the number of petitions, few measures have been implemented. Rejections were based on a concern for consumer costs and on failure of the industry seeking protection to provide a convincing modernization plan. This...

The study focuses on the renewed transition to democracy, and a market economy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), within the context of extremely difficult economic, and social conditions: poor macroeconomic outcomes, with sharp drops in output, and trade, and, very high inflation; severe enterprise, financial, and infrastructure deterioration; and, worsened social indicators, showing increased poverty levels. Although the Federal authorities implemented reforms in foreign trade policy, initiated customs administration reforms, and developed a plan for bank restructuring, these early successes were still on the path of difficult reforms, and institutional strengthening. The Federal, and Republican Governments, will require the adoption of transition reforms, and investment priorities to meet three inter-dependent challenges: restoring macroeconomic stability, and external balance; stimulating growth, and creating the basis for a sustainable supply response; and, improving the social well-being of the most vulnerable...

A history of repeated external and domestic shocks has made economic insecurity a major concern across the Caribbean region. Of particular concern to all households, especially the poorest segments of the population, is the exposure to shocks that are generated by catastrophic events or natural disasters. The author shows that despite high consumption growth, the Caribbean region suffers from a high volatility of consumption that decreases household welfare. After presenting some empirical evidence that consumption volatility is higher in the Caribbean region than in the rest of the world, he makes some empirically testable inferences that help explain consumption volatility. The author develops a conceptual framework for analyzing the effects of catastrophic events on household and aggregate welfare. According to this framework, the volatility of consumption comes from production shocks that are transformed into consumption shocks mostly because of underdeveloped or ineffective risk-management mechanisms. Auffret conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of catastrophic events on 16 countries (6 from the Caribbean region and 10 from Latin America) from 1970-99 and shows that catastrophic events lead to: 1) A substantial decline in the growth of output. 2) A substantial decline in the growth of investment. 3) A more moderate decline in consumption growth (most of the decline is in private consumption...

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o Plano Real e o Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. O que se pretende verificar é se o Plano Real é consentâneo ao sistema de Direito Brasileiro. Para tanto, a análise foi dividida em três blocos. No primeiro, que compreende os Capítulos I e II, foram apresentadas noções indispensáveis para a compreensão do assunto: de preço, poder de compra da moeda e taxa de câmbio. Na oportunidade, também se esclareceu que o Plano Real tinha como principal objetivo combater a inflação no país causada, segundo seus idealizadores, pela indexação da economia e pelo déficit público. A partir deste diagnóstico, o Plano Real é elaborado com base em três principais medidas: ajuste fiscal, criação da Unidade Real de Valor (URV) e adoção de uma âncora cambial. O segundo bloco deste trabalho, integrado pelos Capítulos III a V, vai esmiuçar esta última medida e seus efeitos, bem como as alterações legislativas provocadas pelo Plano Real (principalmente Emendas Constitucionais nº 5 a 9, todas de 1995, e Lei nº 9.069/1995). Aqui também se demonstrará como o Plano Real consagrou a ideologia preconizada pelo Consenso de Washington. No último bloco, composto pelo Capítulo VI, são analisados os efeitos provocados no nível de endividamento público decorrentes das medidas adotadas pelo Plano Real e a alteração das regras jurídicas que tratam da dívida pública que vieram ao encontro dele (principalmente Lei Complementar n° 101/2000). Neste ponto...

In this thesis are presented the results of an investigation of the national income and balance of payments for the colony of Fiji during the period 1950-53. The two introductory chapters (I and II) include a background description of the Colony and discussion of national income methods and techniques employed. There follows an analysis of the National Income material (chapter III-VI) set out in output, income and expenditure form and sub-classified by industrial origin of output, distribution of incomes and directions of expenditure on consumption and investment. An account of the government sector and the incidence of taxation is included (chapter VII). The balance of payment analysed and presented (chapter VIII) with a discussion of the direction and composition of external trade. Two chapters of a subsidiary nature (IX and X) describe economic aspects of the life of Indians and Fijians respectively and are based on supplementary information collected during field surveys. A chapter of conclusions (XI) discusses economic aspects of some of the main statistical conclusions which emerge from the investigation modities.; This thesis has been made available through exception 200AB to the Copyright Act; Yes

This paper outlines and evaluates several intellectual property monetization strategies available to patent holders in developing countries that help generate domestic innovation and knowledge-driven growth by promoting more active technology markets. Based on a review of World Intellectual Property Report indicators, the patent ownership gap between a sample of developed and developing countries has narrowed gradually for more technologically-sophisticated developing countries. However, based on complementary International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments data, the patent commercialization divide (as indicated by licensing income) has been widening. The paper argues that patents, and all forms of intellectual property, are an enabling mechanism rather than a defensive right: an intangible asset class that can be proactively nurtured and managed for greater value extraction to stimulate knowledge-based entrepreneurship and growth in developing countries. The paper presents multiple case studies of alternative monetization strategies to address the commercialization divide. These strategies range from private...

Remittances have played an important role as one of the drivers of Tajikistan's robust economic growth during the past several years. The volume of official remittances has significantly increased since 2001 and now represent close to 12 percent of GDP (2004). Remittances have become the most important source of external financing for the balance of payments, have increased incomes, and as a result helped reduce poverty. Recognizing their importance, the Tajikistan authorities have sought to sustain remittance flows. However, anecdotal evidence indicates that migrants are not sufficiently integrated into the Tajikistan financial system, much less that of the destination countries (e.g. Russia). This Policy Note has two main objectives: (1) to expand knowledge of the size of remittances, their sending mechanisms (especially through formal channels), and their use; and (2) to propose policy recommendations to enhance the development impact of remittances. The report is organized into six sections, including an Introduction. The sections provide background on migration and remittances related to Tajikistan; discuss the estimation of remittance size and data issues; examine the transfer channels of remittances (their cost...

The main motivation for Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) governments to improve energy efficiency is to address pressing domestic concerns, such as urban air pollution, energy security, economic competitiveness, the fiscal cost of energy subsidies and the balance of payments. However, improved energy efficiency is also seen as the most promising route for reducing the region's green house gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, as part of the study on energy efficiency in MENA, this report aims to describe and quantify the links between energy efficiency and GHG emissions as well as urban air pollution in MENA. More specifically, the objectives of the report is: (i) to create scenarios of emissions of GHG and selected urban air pollutants (specifically, particulate matter (PM)) under different assumptions of energy efficiency improvements; (ii) to identify the country/sectors where energy efficiency improvements are likely to have the greatest impact upon GHG and PM emissions; and (iii) to benchmark MENA against other regions in terms of energy intensity and GHG emissions.

Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why (The World Bank, 1998) generated a new wave of controversy about foreign aid and policy conditionality that had seen several decades of intense debate. Much of the recent debate has focused on the aid-growth relationship and the role of "good" policies. While a great deal has been said about qualitative aspects of aid effectiveness (that is, fungibility, among other things), little attention has been paid so far to some important quantitative aspects. The author draws attention to this neglected aspect of the aid debate to show that the level of aid requirements of a country is an equally important and integral part of aid and aid effectiveness. The author compares the World Bank/IMF approaches to estimation of external assistance requirements of a country in quantitative terms with an alternative model, the "balance of payments constrained growth model" (based on the Harrod trade multiplier). He finds that the latter model is not a real alternative as it is an incomplete model. More important...

Este ensayo es resultado de una investigación documental sobre el impacto de la Deuda Pública Externa colombiana en la Balanza de Pagos para el periodo 2007 a 2012. En el marco de la situación actual del país, se seleccionó este tema debido a que la Deuda Pública Externa representa una de las fuentes más importantes de financiación del Gobierno Nacional determinado a cumplir las necesidades generadas en el país como la inversión y el desarrollo de las políticas y metas gubernamentales. Unido a esto, la Balanza de Pagos es un componente principal en el análisis económico en donde se puede determinar la necesidad de endeudamiento partiendo del déficit que se presente. Es así como existe cierta vulnerabilidad en la Balanza de Pagos debido al comportamiento de la Deuda Pública Externa, la cual ha venido presentado una tendencia creciente repercutiendo en los pasivos de la cuenta de capital en la Balanza de Pagos.; This essay is the result of an investigation documentary about the impact of Colombia's foreign debt in the Balance of Payments for the period 2007-2012. In the context of the current situation of the country, was selected this topic because the External Public Debt is one of the most important sources of financing Government determined to meet the needs arising in the country as investment for the development of the governmental policies and goals. Linked to this...

Balance of payments considerations have driven the automobile industry strategies of many late-industrializing countries such as Thailand, Mexico, and Malaysia. These countries do not intend to become leading suppliers in the world automobile industry but rather, have designed (if only by default) their assembly and parts operations with a view towards protecting their balance of payments. Because an automobile is a high-value import, and because demand for automobiles rises steeply as per capita income rises, free importation of automobiles often hurts a young economy's balance of payments. Therefore, virtually all lateindustrializing countries have some intention of developing a production capability in autos in order to protect the supply of and demand for foreign exchange.; First draft

The present article looks for causal relations of the income and, especially, the exchange rate on the expenses of the Brazilians who travel abroad and on the revenues resulted from the foreign tourists who visit our country, these data measured in the account of tourism in the Brazilian Balance of Payments. Econometric tests indicate that the expenditure, on average, are affected by the real exchange rate, while the revenues are not. While analyzing this asymmetry it was possible to note another one, which proved that the number of tourists from bordering countries, taking the visitors of Argentina as an example, on average, are sensitive to the real exchange rate. On the other hand the visitors from countries of other continents, taking the number of visitors from the United States as a parameter, are not affected, on average, by the real exchange rate.; O presente artigo busca relações causais da renda e, principalmente, a taxa de câmbio sobre as despesas dos brasileiros que viajam ao exterior e sobre as receitas advindas dos turistas estrangeiros que visitam o nosso país, dados estes mensurados na conta de turismo no Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. Os testes econométricos indicam que as despesas, em média, são afetadas pela taxa de câmbio real...

This paper presents a model of convergence/divergence in productivity for two economies of different size and development building on Kaldor's cumulative causation and the technological gap approaches to growth. Both operate within the logic provided by a balance-of-payments constraint framework. The more developed and larger economy, the leader, is technologically more advanced with higher levels of productivity and issues the international reserve currency. The developing economy, the follower, is closely linked to the leader economy and is balance-of-payments-constrained (BPC). The paper argues that the growth of the leader has at the same time divergent and convergent effects on the productivity gap between both economies. The divergent effect (the Kaldor effect) works through a process of induced productivity and cumulative causation. The convergent effect (Thirlwall's Law) works through the BPC constraint. The model states that growth with convergence in productivity requires that the ratio of export to import income elasticities of the follower economy exceeds the ratio of the induced productivity of the leader economy to that of the follower economy. The paper then highlights the difficulty of achieving convergence under a BPC constraint and provides policy implications.

The current international financial system is anchored on the United States dollar. Countries that do not issue the reserve currency must be able to acquire, and indeed accumulate, the currency they cannot issue to carry real and financial transactions. As a result, their external performance shapes and constrains to a significant extent their capacity to pursue domestic policies including fiscal and monetary policies. In this sense countries are said to be 'balance-of-payments' constrained. This paper examines, for the case of Chile, the limitations imposed by external conditions to the undertaking of a monetary policy strategy, inflation targeting, which focuses explicitly on a domestic objective, namely a low and stable rate of inflation. Chile adopted an inflation targeting strategy in 1991. Since, the adoption of the inflation targeting strategy followed two clear and distinct phases. The first one lasted from 1991 to 1999 and can be termed an Eclectic Inflation Targeting Regime (EIT). From 1999 to the present Chile switched to a Full Fledged Inflation Targeting Regime (FFIT). The analysis of both phases shows that pursuing inflation targeting under balance-of-payments constrained conditions ultimately leads to a conflict of interest between internal and external objectives...

Between 1998 and 2006, the balance of payments-constrained capital productivity for maquiladoras increased significantly, while the same estimated for non-maquiladoras grew only slightly. The two sectors have not built forward and backward linkages, even though they have been constrained similarly by the foreign exchange gap. Trade liberalization policy, particularly the promotion of temporary imports for re-export, has not helped to bring about export-led growth in Mexico.