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Acurácia e dispersão das estimativas dos analistas no mercado de capitais brasileiro: Impacto da adoção do padrão IFRS sobre a qualidade preditiva da informação contábil; Accuracy and dispersion of analysts' estimates in the Brazilian capital market: Impact of IFRS adoption on the predictive quality of accounting information

Gatsios, Rafael Confetti
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 16/12/2013 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.88%
Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o impacto da convergência às normas internacionais de contabilidade sobre a qualidade preditiva da informação contábil no Brasil. Particularmente, o estudo verifica o impacto da adoção do padrão International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) sobre: i) a acurácia das estimativas de lucro realizadas pelos analistas de mercado e ii) a dispersão dessas estimativas de lucro, além de verificar o comportamento do viés de previsão. Os dados da pesquisa foram extraídos da base Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/B/E/S) e dos formulários de referência das empresas, no site da Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), no período de 2006 a 2012. A metodologia utilizada foi a de análise de dados em painel, com estimação de modelos de efeitos fixos e aleatórios. Para adequação dos modelos, foram utilizadas variáveis de controle comumente empregadas na literatura internacional, além de variáveis de ajuste para caso brasileiro. Os resultados do trabalho indicam que a adoção do padrão IFRS no Brasil ainda não contribuiu para melhora da qualidade preditiva da informação contábil, embora o viés de previsão tenha diminuído. A acurácia dos analistas de mercado diminuiu no período de adoção parcial do IFRS no Brasil e...

The effect of corporate governance quality on the strategic use of Non-GAAP disclosures to beat earnings benchmarks

Nunes, Filipa dos Reis
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.04%
Mestrado em Contabilidade; This study investigates the impact of corporate governance quality on the use of non-GAAP earnings measures to beat strategic earnings benchmarks. For this purpose, five strategic earnings benchmarks are considered: beating analysts’ forecasts, reporting growth in profits, portraying better performance, beating industry performance and avoiding losses. Firms’ governance quality is measured through an index combining 41 attributes. For a sample of European firms, empirical results suggest that corporate governance has a strong influence on firms’ voluntary disclosure decisions. Overall, firms’ governance quality is capable of reducing managers’ propensity to use non-GAAP metrics to meet or beat earnings thresholds. However, it does not seem to have similar influence on all benchmark beating strategies. In fact, the discretionary disclosure of non-GAAP earnings to exceed analysts’ forecasts and to avoid losses is not mitigated by good governance practices. Also, governance mechanisms reduce the magnitude of the difference between non-GAAP earnings and both GAAP measures and analysts’ expectations.; O presente estudo pretende investigar o impacto da qualidade do corporate governance (governanção das sociedades) na utilização de medidas non-GAAP...

Career Concerns of Banking Analysts

Horton, Joanne; Serafeim, Georgios; Wu, Shan
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Research Paper or Report
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.68%
We study how career concerns influence banking analysts’ forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts for banks that could be their future employers. This pattern is not observed when the same analysts forecast earnings of companies that are not likely to be their future employers. Moreover, we use the Global Settlement as an exogenous shock, which limited outside opportunities and therefore exacerbated career concerns, and show that this forecast pattern is more pronounced after the Settlement. Both analysts and bank executives benefit from this behavior. Analysts issuing more biased forecasts for potential future employers are more likely to face favorable career outcomes and bank executives appear to profit from the analysts bias since the bias is associated with higher levels of insider trading. Our results highlight the bias created by asking analysts to rate their outside opportunities in the labor market.

Three essays on corporate governance and meeting-beating or missing analyst forecasts

Rickling, Maria Filofteia
Fonte: FIU Digital Commons Publicador: FIU Digital Commons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.83%
The beginning of the 21st century was plagued with unprecedented instances of corporate fraud. In an attempt to address apparent non-existent or “broken” corporate governance policies, sweeping measures of financial reporting reform ensued, having specific requirements relating to the composition of audit committees, the interaction between audit committees and external auditors, and procedures concerning auditors’ assessment of client risk. The purpose of my dissertation is to advance knowledge about “good” corporate governance by examining the association between meeting-or-beating analyst forecasts and audit fees, audit committee compensation, and audit committee tenure and “busyness”. Using regression analysis, I found the following: (1) the frequency of meeting-or-just beating (just missing) analyst forecasts is negatively (positively) associated with audit fees, (2) the extent by which a firm exceeds analysts’ forecasts is positively (negatively) associated with audit committee compensation that is predominately equity-based (cash-based), and (3) the likelihood of repeatedly meeting-or-just beating analyst forecasts is positively associated with audit committee tenure and “busyness”. These results suggest that auditors consider clients who frequently meet-or-just beat forecasts as being less “risky”...

Three Essays on Corporate Governance and Meeting-Beating or Missing Analyst Forecasts

Rickling, Maria F
Fonte: FIU Digital Commons Publicador: FIU Digital Commons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.83%
The beginning of the 21st century was plagued with unprecedented instances of corporate fraud. In an attempt to address apparent non-existent or “broken” corporate governance policies, sweeping measures of financial reporting reform ensued, having specific requirements relating to the composition of audit committees, the interaction between audit committees and external auditors, and procedures concerning auditors’ assessment of client risk. The purpose of my dissertation is to advance knowledge about “good” corporate governance by examining the association between meeting-or-beating analyst forecasts and audit fees, audit committee compensation, and audit committee tenure and “busyness”. Using regression analysis, I found the following: 1) the frequency of meeting-or-just beating (just missing) analyst forecasts is negatively (positively) associated with audit fees, 2) the extent by which a firm exceeds analysts’ forecasts is positively (negatively) associated with audit committee compensation that is predominately equity-based (cash-based), and 3) the likelihood of repeatedly meeting-or-just beating analyst forecasts is positively associated with audit committee tenure and “busyness”. These results suggest that auditors consider clients who frequently meet-or-just beat forecasts as being less “risky”...

Conditional conservatism and cost of capital

García Lara, Juan Manuel; García Osma, Beatriz; Penalva, Fernando
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion; info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2010 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.37%
We empirically test the association between conditional conservatism and cost of equity capital. Conditional conservatism imposes stronger verification requirements for the recognition of economic gains than economic losses, resulting in earnings that reflect losses faster than gains. This asymmetric reporting of gains and losses is predicted to lower firm cost of equity capital by increasing bad news reporting precision, thereby reducing information uncertainty (Guay and Verrecchia 2007) and the volatility of future stock prices (Suijs 2008). Using standard assetpricing tests, we find a significant negative relation between conditional conservatism and excess average stock returns over the period 1975-2003. This evidence is corroborated by further tests on the association between conditional conservatism and measures of implied cost of capital derived from analysts’ forecasts; We acknowledge financial assistance from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science (ECO2008- 06238/ECON and SEJ2007-67582/ECON), the European Commission INTACCT Research Training Network (MRTN-CT-2006-035850), IESE Research Division, and the AECA Carlos Cubillo Chair in Accounting and Auditing

Cash flow signals and analysts' earnings forecast revisions

Moses, O. Douglas
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.06%
This study investigates the incorporation of cash flow information in forecasts of earnings made by security analysts. It extends and links two streams of research in accounting. One stream of research has been concerned with revisions in earnings forecasts made by analysts. What factors lead to forecast revisions? Prior research has concentrated on investigating revisions of earnings forecasts in response to earnings announcements. A critique of that literature notes that there is a lack of knowledge concerning other factors that lead to forecast revisions (Brown, et al., 1985, p. 130). This study extends that research by identifying accounting measures beyond earnings apparently deemed informative to analysts when predicting future earnings. The second stream of research has been concerned with the question of whether a decomposition of earnings into cash flow and accrual components provides incremental information beyond that contained in earnings alone.à ¢ Is such a decomposition informative? Is a dollar of accrual accounting earnings (worth) the same as a dollar of cash flow? Prior research has investigated this question through analysis of security returns. Findings have been somewhat contradictory. This study extends that research by addressing the question of the use of earnings component information in the previously unexamined context of the formation of analysts' earnings forecasts. In doing so...

The impact of IFRS on financial analysts' forecast accuracy in the Asia-Pacific region: The case of Australia, Hong Kong and New Zealand

Cheong, C.; Kim, S.; Zurbrugg, R.Y.
Fonte: Emerald Publishing Group Ltd Publicador: Emerald Publishing Group Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.93%
Purpose – This paper aims to provide an investigation into whether financial analysts' forecast accuracy differs between the pre- and post-adoption of the international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in the Asia-Pacific region, namely, for the countries of Australia, Hong Kong and New Zealand. In particular, this study seeks to examine whether the treatment of intangibles capitalized in the post-IFRS period have positively aided analysts in forecasting future earnings of a firm. Design/methodology/approach – Panel data analysis is applied over a period from 2001 to 2008. Findings – Evidence is found to show intangibles capitalized under the new recognition and measurement rules of IFRS are negatively associated with analysts' earnings forecast errors. The results are robust to several model specifications across each of the countries, suggesting that the adoption of IFRS may indeed provide more value-relevant information in financial statements for the users of financial reports. Originality/value – This paper analyzed whether the adoption of IFRS has led to any changes in the accuracy of earnings forecasts. The results will be of help to analysts' earnings forecast activity and those with interest in the subject.; Chee Seng Cheong...

Financial analysts' forecast accuracy before and after AIFRS

Cheong, C.; Masum, M.; Zurbrugg, R.Y.
Fonte: AFAANZ; online Publicador: AFAANZ; online
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.67%
We examine whether financial analysts‟ forecast accuracy differs between the pre- and post- adoption of Australian Equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (AIFRS). We find that forecast accuracy has improved after Australia adopted AIFRS implying that it has aided analysts in their market valuation of firms. As a secondary objective, this paper also investigates the role of financial analysts in reducing information asymmetry in the Australian capital market. We find evidence that the information effect of more analysts following a stock helps to improve forecast accuracy by bringing more firm-specific information to the market.; Chee Seng Cheong, Mahmud Masum and Ralf Zurbruegg

Financial analysts' forecast accuracy : Before and after the introduction of AIFRS

Cheong, C.; Masum, M.
Fonte: University of Wollongong School of Accounting and Finance Publicador: University of Wollongong School of Accounting and Finance
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.83%
We examine whether financial analysts’ forecast accuracy differs between the pre- and post- adoption of Australian Equivalents to the International Financial Reporting Standards (AIFRS). We find that forecast accuracy has improved after Australia adopted AIFRS. As a secondary objective, this paper also investigates the role of financial analysts in reducing information asymmetry in today’s Australian capital market. We find weak evidence that more analysts following a stock do not help to improve forecast accuracy by bringing more firm-specific information to the market.; Chee Seng Cheong and Mahmud Al Masum

Essays in book -tax income differences and analyst forecasts /recommendations

Yuan, Xiaoli
Fonte: FIU Digital Commons Publicador: FIU Digital Commons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.57%
Prior research suggests that book-tax income differences (BTD) relate to both firms' earnings quality and operating performance. In this dissertation, I explore whether and how financial analysts signal the implications of BTD efficiently. This dissertation is comprised of three essays on BTD. The three essays seek to develop a better understanding of how financial analysts utilize information reflected in BTD (derived from the ratio of taxable income to book income). ^ The first essay is a review and discussion of prior research regarding BTD. The second essay of this dissertation investigates the role of BTD in indicating the consensus and dispersion of analyst recommendations. I find that sell recommendations are positively related to BTD. I also document that analyst coverage has a positive effect on the standard deviation of consensus recommendations with respect to BTD. The third essay is an empirical analysis of analysts' forecast optimism, analyst coverage, and BTD. I find a negative association between forecast optimism and BTD. My results are consistent with a larger BTD being associated with less forecast bias. ^ Overall, I interpret the sum of the evidence as being consistent with BTD reflecting information about earnings quality...

Analysts' Selective Provisions of Cash Flow Forecasts

Yoo, CHOONG-YUEL
Fonte: Quens University Publicador: Quens University
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 1870730 bytes; application/pdf
EN; EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
37.21%
In this thesis, I examine the factors associated with analysts’ voluntary practice of issuing cash flow forecasts and earnings forecasts on the same day. I draw on Hughes and Pae’s (2004) management partial disclosure equilibrium and predict how an analyst decides to issue a cash flow forecast revision along with and according to her bad news and good news earnings forecast revision. In particular, I predict that analysts strategically choose to supplement earnings forecasts with positive cash flow news when they deliver bad news earnings forecasts. Consistent with my prediction, I find that analysts are more likely to issue cash flow forecast revisions in the opposite direction to their earnings forecast revisions when they issue downward earnings forecast revisions than when they issue upward earnings forecast revisions. The results suggest that analysts may not make their decisions to issue cash flow forecasts as objectively as they ought to do in their role as independent information intermediaries. Rather, analyst decisions to issue cash flow forecasts are akin to managers’ strategic decisions to voluntarily disclose supplemental information to affect investors’ confidence in their primary news (earnings forecasts).; Thesis (Ph.D...

"Financial Numbers Game" Evidence to the Dj Stoxx 50 Euro Index

Costa, Marta
Fonte: Instituto Politécnico de Leiria Publicador: Instituto Politécnico de Leiria
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em 14/06/2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.88%
Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais apresentada à ESTG - Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão do Instituto Politécnico de Leiria.; The capital market reaction to the earnings announcement has been studied in the literature. This work focuses on market reaction to earnings announcement, whose values are similar or above analysts' forecasts, proxy for market expectations. Consequently, after assess the relevance and timeliness of the concept to meet or beat expectations, especially the value-effect in which we present a positive earnings surprise, we have looked at the mechanisms used by management in order to report earnings above expectations. Subsequently, and based on an approach of the earnings expectations time line, we develop our hypotheses and design our variables. To enhance the consistency of our tests, we consider two metrics to calculate the cumulative abnormal returns: the market model and market adjusted return. We analyze the existence of a market premium for firms of the DJ Stoxx 50 E, which meet or beat expectations. Then, and analyzing expectations path, we infer expectations management in the sample obtained in 636 firms-quarters. Finally, we analyzed the association between the market premium and the existence of expectations management...

What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?

Groysberg, Boris; Healy, Paul Murray; Nohria, Nitin; Serafeim, Georgios
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.75%
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors and which are considered most important. We use survey data from 967 analysts ranking 837 companies to judge how their forecasts are related to evaluations of firms' industry competitiveness, strategic choices, and internal capabilities. Forecasts are generally associated with many of the factors that money managers rate as important in their assessments of analyst contributions, including industry growth and competitiveness, low-price strategy, strategy execution, top management quality, innovation, and performance-driven culture. We also find wide variation across variables for ratings consistency among analysts covering the same firm. On average, consistency is higher for sell-side than buy-side analysts, consistent with sell-side analysts facing greater incentives to herd.

The Ability of Analysts' Recommendations to Predict Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts

Biglari, Vahid; Alfan, Ervina Binti; Ahmad, Rubi Binti; Hajian, Najmeh
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 17/10/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.75%
Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM) with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005–2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature.

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

Choi, Ka Wai; Chen, Xiaomeng; Wright, Sue; Wu, Hai (Steven)
Fonte: University of Sydney Press Publicador: University of Sydney Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.88%
This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non-forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information adva

The Naive Extrapolation Hypothesis and the Rosy-Gloomy Forecasts

Barmpoutis, Vasileios
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 06/06/2014
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.75%
I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and small firms. I find that the forecasting errors are higher for the growth firms and large firms, thus providing support for the Extrapolation Hypothesis. However, in addition to the rosy picture of the growth and large firms, the forecasts of the value and small firms are not so gloomy in many cases. My analysis also reveals that expectations move together for all categories of book-to-market and all sizes of firms. I proceed by investigating some common factors that may influence analysts' long-term forecasts, including co-movement and excessive optimism. I find that macro factors beyond a firm's recent performance may influence the formation of expectations.

Tests of market reaction and analysts' forcast revision to the disclosure of improved management earning expectations: A case of concurrent bad news management earning forecasts

Lacina, Michael; Karim, Khondkar
Fonte: Springer-Verlag (The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com) Publicador: Springer-Verlag (The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com)
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
27.24%
This paper tests whether a negative stock market reaction associated with a management forecast of new term bad earnings is lessened by a concurrent management forecast of improved longer term earnings expectations. stock market reactions depend on the creditability of management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In this analysis, the authors-examined market reactions around the time of management forecasts of bad earnings, with and without longer-term management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The results show that the stock market reaction is significantly less negative when management forecasts of bad earnings are followed by management forecasts of improved long run earnings expectations than when management forecasts of bad earnings are not accompanied by management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. In addition, this paper examines financial analysts' reaction to management bad earnings forecasts and management forecasts of improved earnings expectations. The findings show that analysts react less negatively to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations than to management forecasts of improved earnings expectations to imply improved earnings exceptions. However, results show that the stock market and analysts are unable to distinguish management forecasts of improved earnings expectations that come true from management forecasts of improved earning exceptions that do not come true.

Adoption of IFRS and the Properties of Analysts’ Forecasts: The Brazilian Case; Adoption of IFRS and the Properties of Analysts’ Forecasts: The Brazilian Case

Martinez, Antonio Lopo; Dumer, Miguel
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de RP
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 17/04/2014 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
47.51%
Using data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, we investigated the statistical properties of analysts’ quarterly earnings projections in the years around the adoption of IFRS in Brazil (2007 to 2011). Characteristics such as accuracy, bias and precision of analysts’ forecasts are useful in different situations. The results indicate that the accuracy improved with increased coverage and for more profitable firms. Univariate and multivariate tests did not indicate significant changes in the accuracy and bias of the forecasts in the years around the adoption of IFRS.; Using data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, we investigated the statistical properties of analysts’ quarterly earnings projections in the years around the adoption of IFRS in Brazil (2007 to 2011). Characteristics such as accuracy, bias and precision of analysts’ forecasts are useful in different situations. The results indicate that the accuracy improved with increased coverage and for more profitable firms. Univariate and multivariate tests did not indicate significant changes in the accuracy and bias of the forecasts in the years around the adoption of IFRS.

ANALYSIS OF THE RESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION AND ABNORMAL EARNINGS GROWTH MODELS: A PRACTICAL APPROACH USING ANALYSTS’ FORECASTS; ANÁLISE DOS MODELOS DE AVALIAÇÃO PELO LUCRO RESIDUAL E CRESCIMENTO ANORMAL DOS LUCROS: UMA ABORDAGEM PRÁTICA UTILIZANDO PROJEÇÕES DOS ANALISTAS

Almeida, José Elias Feres; Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES); Lima, Gerlando Augusto Sampaio Franco de; Universidade de São Paulo; Lima, Iran Siqueira; Universidade de São Paulo; Securato, José Roberto; Universidade de São Paulo
Fonte: UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO PARANÁ - ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT Publicador: UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO PARANÁ - ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 10/05/2012 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.99%
; This paper revisits two valuation models based on accounting figures: the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our research design has two approaches: i) we demonstrate theoretical integration of both models; and ii) we show in a practical manner that models converge to the same results based on real data of analysts forecast consensus. We apply statistical tests on empirical data from analyst’s forecasts available on Thomson One Analytics database. We use information of 45 firms listed on the IBovespa segment from BMF&BOVESPA in 2008 with historical data from 2003 to 2007 and analysts’ projections from 2003 to 2010. Our results do not show a significant mean difference of the valuations, but those from the RIV model are more dispersed than those produced by the AEG model. Furthermore, our results are consistent with international evidences and present additional evidences of application of valuation models based on accounting information in Brazil. Our findings support the use of valuation models based on accounting figures by analysts, investors, rating agencies and regulators to provide additional analyses of firm’s future prospects.