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The changing landscape of religious affiliation in Brazil between 1980 and 2010: age, period, and cohort perspectives

Coutinho,Raquel Zanatta; Golgher,André Braz
Fonte: Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais Publicador: Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/06/2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.07%
There has been a remarkable decline in the number of Catholics in Brazil over the last few decades, a fact that is attributed to the growth of Pentecostal churches and to an increase in the number of people with no religious affiliation. We analyzed the age, period, and cohort effects associated with religious affiliation in Brazil from 1980 to 2010, applying the Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort and Cross-Classified Random Effects Model. We observed that age effects were significant but low for Catholics and Pentecostals, and were substantial for those with no religious affiliation, with a negative relationship. For these first two religious affiliations, period effects were of greater magnitude with clear trends: negative for Catholics and positive for Pentecostals. Cohort effects were significant for all three affiliations, but magnitudes were lower than the other two effects. We also verified that the likelihood of being a Pentecostal decreased with formal education, and the opposite occurred for persons with no religious affiliation. These effects, however, were smaller for younger cohorts, possibly due to the reduced social selectivity of recent students pursuing higher education and the increase in overall levels of education.

Increasing thyroid cancer incidence in Canada, 1970–1996: time trends and age-period-cohort effects

Liu, S; Semenciw, R; Ugnat, A-M; Mao, Y
Fonte: Nature Publishing Group Publicador: Nature Publishing Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.13%
We examined time trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Canada by age, time period and birth cohort between 1970 and 1996. Age-specific incidence rates by time period and birth cohort were calculated and age-period-cohort modelling used to estimate effects underlying the observed trends. Overall age-adjusted incidence rates of thyroid cancer doubled, from 3.3 and 1.1 per 100 000 in 1970–72 to 6.8 and 2.2 per 100 000 in 1994–96, among females and males respectively. Almost all the increase between 1970–72 and 1994–96 was due to papillary carcinoma of the thyroid. Age, birth cohort and period effects significantly improved the fit of the model for females, while age and birth cohort effects were significant determinants of the incidence among males. There were significant differences in the patterns/curvature for age, period and birth cohort effects between women and men. Our results suggest that the increases in thyroid cancer incidence in Canada may be associated with more intensive diagnostic activities and change in radiation exposure in childhood and adolescence. Temporal changes in reproductive factors among young women may explain some of the gender differences observed. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign

Age-period-cohort analysis of asthma prevalence among school children

Okamoto, Etsuji; Hata, Eiichi; Kobayashi, Masako; Hayashi, Kenji
Fonte: Springer-Verlag Publicador: Springer-Verlag
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /05/2007 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.1%
Prevalence of age-dependent diseases such as asthma is confounded not only by aging effects but also by cohort and period effects. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is commonly performed to isolate the effects of these three factors from two-way tables of prevalence by age and birth cohort. However, APC analysis suffers from technical difficulties such as non-identifiability problems. We isolated the effects of these three factors in a step-by-step manner by analyzing Japan’s school health data collected from 1984 to 2004 focusing on asthma prevalence among school children aged 6–17 years consisting of 30 birth cohorts (entering classes). We verified the accuracy of our method showing high agreement of the observed age-, period- and cohort-specific data and the data predicted by our method. The aging effects were found to follow cubic equations whose multinomial coefficients were determined by an optimization technique. The obtained aging effect curves of age-specific asthma prevalence showed that boys reach the peak prevalence at 13 and girls at 14, declining markedly afterward. The cohort effects, defined as the arithmetic asthma prevalence means for ages 6–17 years, showed consistent upward trends for the 30 birth cohorts born in 1968–97 for both sexes. The period effects showed a consistent decline since 1984 but abruptly increased in 1999 and then declined again. We were not able to identify the exact cause of the increase in 1999...

Do Birth Cohorts Matter? Age-Period-Cohort Analyses of the Obesity Epidemic in the United States

Reither, Eric N.; Hauser, Robert M; Yang, Yang
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.1%
Many studies have cited the importance of secular changes or “period effects” as causes of the U.S. obesity epidemic. Unfortunately, relatively little attention has been devoted to the possible influence of cohort-related mechanisms. To address this current gap in the scientific literature, this investigation utilized the responses from 1.7 million participants in the 1976-2002 National Health Interview Surveys to determine how birth cohorts may have contributed to the rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity. Results from hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models confirmed that period effects are principally responsible for the U.S. obesity epidemic. However, HAPC models also demonstrated that birth cohort membership is influential. Independent of age and period effects, the predicted probability of obesity at age 25 increased by 30% for cohorts born between 1955 and 1975. Our results also showed that age, period and cohort effects varied by race/gender and educational attainment. For instance, increases in the predicted probabilities of obesity were particularly sharp for recent cohorts of Black females. Our investigation successfully demonstrated that both secular change and birth cohort membership have independently contributed to elevated odds of obesity among recent generations of Americans...

A Novel Approach for Analysis of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model: Application to Lung Cancer Incidence

Mdzinarishvili, Tengiz; Gleason, Michael X.; Sherman, Simon
Fonte: Libertas Academica Publicador: Libertas Academica
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 14/12/2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
A simple, computationally efficient procedure for analyses of the time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of cancers is proposed. Assuming that cohort effects for neighboring cohorts are almost equal and using the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model, this procedure allows one to evaluate temporal trends and birth cohort variations of any type of cancer without prior knowledge of the hazard function. This procedure was used to estimate the influence of time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of first primary, microscopically confirmed lung cancer (LC) cases from the SEER9 database. It was shown that since 1975, the time period effect coefficients for men increase up to 1980 and then decrease until 2004. For women, these coefficients increase from 1975 up to 1990 and then remain nearly constant. The LC birth cohort effect coefficients for men and women increase from the cohort of 1890–94 until the cohort of 1925–29, then decrease until the cohort of 1950–54 and then remain almost unchanged. Overall, LC incidence rates, adjusted by period and cohort effects, increase up to the age of about 72–75, turn over, and then fall after the age of 75–78. The peak of the adjusted rates in men is around the age of 77–78...

Time Trend and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on Acute Myocardial Infarction Mortality in Korean Adults from 1988 to 2007

Jhun, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ho; Cho, Sung-Il
Fonte: The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences Publicador: The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.13%
We examined time trend and age-period-cohort effects on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality in Korean adults from 1988 to 2007. Annual AMI mortality data and population statistics from 1988 to 2007 were obtained from the STATISTICS KOREA website. Age adjusted mortality for four 5-yr calendar periods (1988-1992 to 2003-2007) was calculated by direct standardization using the Year 2000 WHO world standard population. A log-linear Poisson regression model was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on AMI mortality. In both genders, age-adjusted AMI mortality increased from period one (1988-1992) to period three (1998-2002) but decreased in period four (2003-2007). An exponential age effect was noted in both genders. The rate ratio of the cohort effect increased up to the 1943 birth cohort and decreased gradually thereafter, and the rate ratio of the period effect increased up to period three (1998-2002) and decreased thereafter. Our results suggest that AMI mortality in Korean adults has decreased since the period 1998-2002 and age, period, and cohort effects have influenced on AMI mortality.

Variance Function Regression in Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Models: Applications to the Study of Self-Reported Health

Zheng, Hui; Yang, Yang; Land, Kenneth C.
Fonte: PubMed Publicador: PubMed
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em /12/2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.14%
Two long-standing research problems of interest to sociologists are sources of variations in social inequalities and differential contributions of the temporal dimensions of age, time period, and cohort to variations in social phenomena. Recently, scholars have introduced a model called Variance Function Regression for the study of the former problem, and a model called Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort regression has been developed for the study of the latter. This article presents an integration of these two models as a means to study the evolution of social inequalities along distinct temporal dimensions. We apply the integrated model to survey data on subjective health status. We find substantial age, period, and cohort effects, as well as gender differences, not only for the conditional mean of self-rated health (i.e., between-group disparities), but also for the variance in this mean (i.e., within-group disparities)—and it is detection of age, period, and cohort variations in the latter disparities that application of the integrated model permits. Net of effects of age and individual-level covariates, in recent decades, cohort differences in conditional means of self-rated health have been less important than period differences that cut across all cohorts. By contrast...

Addressing the Younger Age at Onset in Breast Cancer Patients in Asia: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Fifty Years of Quality Data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer

Mousavi-Jarrrahi, Seyed Houssein; Kasaeian, Amir; Mansori, Kamyar; Ranjbaran, Mehdi; Khodadost, Mahmoud; Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza
Fonte: Hindawi Publishing Corporation Publicador: Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 02/09/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.13%
Introduction. There is an established fact that Asian breast cancer patients are, on average, younger than their European counterparts. This study aimed to utilize the data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents I through XIII (published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer) to examine what contributes to the younger age at onset in the Asian population. Material and Methods. Data (number of breast cancer cases and corresponding population figures) for 29 registries in Europe and 9 registries in Asia for the period of 1953–2002 was accessioned and pooled to form two distinct populations, Asia and Europe. The age specific rates were defined and analyzed cross-sectionally (period wise) and longitudinally (cohort wise). The magnitude and the pattern of age specific rates were analyzed using the age-period-cohort analysis. The constrained generalized linear model with a priority assumption of cohort effect as contributing factor to changing rates was used to analyze the data. Result. During the last 50 years, the rate of breast cancer increased for both populations with an estimated annual percent change of 1.03% (with 95% CI of 1.029, 1.031) for Asia and 1.016% (95% CI of 1.015, 1.017) for Europe. There were stronger cohort effects in the magnitude of rates among the Asian population compared to the European population. The cohort effects...

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Trends in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Denmark, 1970–2009

Seals, Ryan M.; Hansen, Johnni; Gredal, Ole; Weisskopf, Marc G.
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.12%
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a disease of the motor neuron with poorly understood etiology. Recent studies have suggested that the incidence rate of ALS and the rate of death from ALS are increasing, but it is unclear whether this is due to changing exposures or improvements in diagnosis. We used age-period-cohort models to investigate trends in ALS incidence (hospitalization) from 1982 to 2009 and ALS mortality from 1970 to 2009 in Denmark. Among those 45 years of age or older, 4,265 deaths (incidence rate = 5.35 per 100,000 person-years) and 3,228 incident diagnoses (incidence rate = 5.55 per 100,000 person-years) were recorded. Age-adjusted mortality rates increased by an average of 3.0% annually between 1970 and 2009 and by an average of 2.1% annually after 1982. Age-period-cohort analyses suggested that the full age-period-cohort model provided the best fit to the mortality data (P < 0.001), although restriction to the post-1982 period suggested that the age-cohort model provided the best fit. Age-adjusted incidence rates increased by 1.6% annually after 1982 (P < 0.001), which was best explained by the age-period model, with borderline significant cohort effects (P = 0.08). A consistent finding regardless of parameterization or data subset appeared to be an increase in ALS incidence and mortality rate with later birth cohorts...

Trends in dental visiting avoidance due to cost in Australia, 1994 to 2010: an age-period-cohort analysis

Chrisopoulos, S.; Luzzi, L.; Brennan, D.
Fonte: BioMed Central Ltd. Publicador: BioMed Central Ltd.
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
96.09%
Background: The cost of dental care may be a barrier to regular dental attendance with the proportion of the Australian population avoiding or delaying care due to cost increasing since 1994. This paper explores the extent to which age, period and cohort factors have contributed to the variation in avoiding or delaying visiting a dentist because of cost. Methods: Data were obtained from four national dental telephone interview surveys of Australian residents aged five years and over conducted in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2010 (response rates 48% - 72%). The trend in the percentage of persons avoiding or delaying visiting a dentist because of cost was analysed by means of a standard cohort table and more formal age-period-cohort analyses using a nested models framework. Results: There was an overall increase in the proportion of people avoiding or delaying visiting a dentist indicating the presence of period effects. Financial barriers were also associated with age such that the likelihood of avoiding because of cost was highest for those in their mid-late twenties and lowest in both children and older adults. Cohort effects were also present although the pattern of effects differed between cohorts. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that...

Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010

Anderson, R.W.G.; Searson, D.J.
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2015 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
96.12%
A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover...

Decline in usually visiting the dentist for a problem in Australia, 1994 to 2010: an age-period-cohort analysis

Luzzi, L.; Chrisopoulos, S.; Brennan, D.S.
Fonte: John Wiley & Sons Publicador: John Wiley & Sons
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.14%
Objectives: To determine the extent to which age, period and cohort factors have contributed to variation in problem-oriented dental visiting over time. Methods: Data were obtained from four National Dental Telephone Interview Surveys of Australian residents aged 5 years and over conducted in 1994, 1999, 2004 and 2010 (response rates 48–72%). The trend in the percentage of persons usually visiting the dentist for a problem was analysed by means of a standard cohort table and by a nested models framework for age–period–cohort analyses. Results : The percentage of persons usually visiting the dentist for a problem generally decreased over the periods examined (from 42.5% in 1994 to 31.5% in 2010). Problem visiting tended to be lower for children and adolescents compared with adult age groups at each point in time. Model fit tests revealed that the age–period–cohort model provided the best fit for the data (Hosmer–Lemeshow test statistic = 5.3; d.f. = 8; P-value = 0.72), indicating that both period and cohort factors were influential in problem visiting. Conclusion: This study found similar, consistent stories for both the age–period and age–cohort models, with usually visiting for a problem tending to be higher in older age groups and older cohorts. Problem visiting tended to decline over time for most age groups and most age cohorts. Understanding patterns of dental service use over time can be used to help inform service delivery policies that promote and facilitate appropriate use of dental services.; Liana Luzzi...

Dental service rates: age, period, and cohort effects

Brennan, D.; Ryan, P.; Spencer, A.; Szuster, F.
Fonte: F D I World Dental Press Ltd Publicador: F D I World Dental Press Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2000 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.14%
OBJECTIVE: Variation in dental service provision over time has been related to changes in factors such as oral health and demographics. Dentist factors such as age and cohort effects are also potential sources of influence. The aim of the study was to examine the operation of age, period, and cohort factors on variation in service rates. BASIC RESEARCH DESIGN: data were collected by a mailed survey of a random sample of 10% of male and 40% of female dentists from each state/territory of Australia in 1983-84, 1988-89. and 1993-94 with response rates of 73, 75 and 74% respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data on main areas of service were obtained from a log of service items provided on a typical day. RESULTS: Poisson regressions of rates for the 10 main areas of service over time showed increased rates over the study period for diagnostic, preventive, endodontic, crown and bridge, general/miscellaneous and orthodontic services, and decreased rates of prosthodontic services. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that models for periodontal and endodontic services had a good fit. However, only endodontic services were readily interpretable in terms of descriptive trends. While the age-period-cohort model was preferred, age-period and age-cohort models were also examined because of problems of identification with age-period-cohort models. Endodontic rates were higher among younger dentist birth cohorts...

Age, period and cohort analysis of patient dental visits in Australia

Ju, X.; Brennan, D.S.; Spencer, A.J.
Fonte: BioMed Central Publicador: BioMed Central
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.12%
BACKGROUND: Understanding dentists' capacity to supply dental services over time is a key element in the process of planning for the future. The aim was to identify time trends and estimate age, period and cohort effects in patients' visits supplied per dentist per year. METHODS: Mailed questionnaires were collected from a random sample of Australian private general practice dentists. The response rates were 73%, 75%, 74%, 71%, 76% and 67% in 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2009, respectively. The time trends in the mean number of patient visits supplied per dentist per year (PPY) was described by using a standard cohort table and age-period-cohort analyses applying a nested general linear regression models approach. RESULTS: The mean number of PPY decreased across most age groups of dentists over the time of study. The age-period model showed that younger dentists (20-29 years) and older dentists (65-74 and 80-84 years) had lower PPY than middle-aged dentists, and the age-cohort model showed higher PPY among earlier cohorts, and lower PPY among more recent cohorts. CONCLUSION: The study found a period effect of declining PPY over the observation period. More recent cohorts of dentists provide lower numbers of PPY than earlier cohorts at similar ages...

Mortalité par suicide au Canada depuis le début du XXe siècle : perspectives sociodémographiques et macroéconomiques

Thibodeau, Lise
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
FR
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.16%
Depuis deux siècles, les transformations les plus remarquables de la mortalité par suicide concernent la relation avec la variable âge. En particulier, Durkheim (2002 [1897]) avait observé à partir des données du début du XIXe siècle l’augmentation des taux de suicide avec l’âge pour culminer à la vieillesse. Ce constat est demeuré stable pendant plus d’un siècle, mais un dérèglement majeur est survenu au plan international durant le dernier quart de siècle, l’augmentation substantielle des taux de suicide et particulièrement ceux des jeunes. Notre étude s’intéresse spécifiquement à l’évolution de la mortalité par suicide au Canada selon la variable âge. Pour ce faire, nous utilisons une approche multidisciplinaire combinant la démographie, la sociologie et l’économie. La période d’analyse est la plus longue jusqu’à présent, du début de l’état civil au XXe jusqu’au début du XXIe siècle (1926-2008). Les changements nationaux du suicide sont représentatifs de la société canadienne et de plus fines analyses relèvent les caractéristiques du phénomène dans la province de Québec comparativement au reste du Canada. Des méthodes statistiques avancées récemment développées et des techniques économétriques sont utilisées pour estimer les effets indépendants âge-période-cohorte et pour considérer la temporalité des indicateurs économiques. Les résultats de nos analyses sont présentés sous forme d’articles scientifiques qui s’appuient sur les données de Statistique Canada et de l’Institut national de santé publique du Québec. Les conclusions du premier article...

A New Approach to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using Partial Least Squares Regression: The Trend in Blood Pressure in the Glasgow Alumni Cohort

Tu, Yu-Kang; Davey Smith, George; Gilthorpe, Mark S.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 27/04/2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.12%
Due to a problem of identification, how to estimate the distinct effects of age, time period and cohort has been a controversial issue in the analysis of trends in health outcomes in epidemiology. In this study, we propose a novel approach, partial least squares (PLS) analysis, to separate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Our example for illustration is taken from the Glasgow Alumni cohort. A total of 15,322 students (11,755 men and 3,567 women) received medical screening at the Glasgow University between 1948 and 1968. The aim is to investigate the secular trends in blood pressure over 1925 and 1950 while taking into account the year of examination and age at examination. We excluded students born before 1925 or aged over 25 years at examination and those with missing values in confounders from the analyses, resulting in 12,546 and 12,516 students for analysis of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. PLS analysis shows that both systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased with students' age, and students born later had on average lower blood pressure (SBP: −0.17 mmHg/per year [95% confidence intervals: −0.19 to −0.15] for men and −0.25 [−0.28 to −0.22] for women; DBP: −0.14 [−0.15 to −0.13] for men; −0.09 [−0.11 to −0.07] for women). PLS also shows a decreasing trend in blood pressure over the examination period. As identification is not a problem for PLS...

Asymptotic properties of estimators in age-period-cohort analysis

Fu, Wenjiang; Hall, Peter
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.87%
We study asymptotics and convergence rates of multiple estimators in a general linear age-period-cohort model with a singular design matrix. The covariates are fixed effects of rows, columns and diagonals in an a × p table with one response in each cell.

Lung cancer rate predictions using generalized additive models

Clements, Mark; Armstrong, Bruce K; Moolgavkar, Suresh
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.11%
Predictions of lung cancer incidence and mortality are necessary for planning public health programs and clinical services. It is proposed that generalized additive models (GAMs) are practical for cancer rate prediction. Smooth equivalents for classical age-period, age-cohort, and age-period-cohort models are available using one-dimensional smoothing splines. We also propose using two-dimensional smoothing splines for age and period. Variance estimation can be based on the bootstrap. To assess predictive performance, we compared the models with a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Model comparison used cross-validation and measures of predictive performance for recent predictions. The models were applied to data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database for females in five countries. Model choice between the age-period-cohort models and the two-dimensional models was equivocal with respect to cross-validation, while the two-dimensional GAMs had very good predictive performance. The Bayesian model performed poorly due to imprecise predictions and the assumption of linearity outside of observed data. In summary, the two-dimensional GAM performed well. The GAMs make the important prediction that female lung cancer rates in these countries will be stable or begin to decline in the future.

Breast cancer mortality in mexico: an age-period-cohort analysis

Franco-Marina,Francisco; Lazcano-Ponce,Eduardo; López-Carrillo,Lizbeth
Fonte: Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública Publicador: Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.06%
OBJECTIVE: To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford. RESULTS: Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades. CONCLUSIONS: Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.

Breast cancer mortality in mexico: an age-period-cohort analysis

Franco-Marina,Francisco; Lazcano-Ponce,Eduardo; López-Carrillo,Lizbeth
Fonte: Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública Publicador: Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2009 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
86.06%
OBJECTIVE: To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford. RESULTS: Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades. CONCLUSIONS: Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.