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Investir em acções segundo Warren Buffett: caso português

Jorge, Ricardo Humberto Dias
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2010 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.02%
Mestrado em Finanças; Warren Buffett é um dos investidores mais bem sucedidos nos mercados de capitais dos últimos 50 anos. Segundo o último estudo da revista norte-americana Forbes (2008), Buffett é considerado o segundo homem mais rico do Mundo, com um património acumulado de aproximadamente 38 mil milhões USD. Este estudo tentará replicar o modelo de investimento utilizado por Warren Buffett no Índice PSI-20. Para tal, são comparadas três carteiras de investimentos representativas de diferentes estratégias de investimento, incluindo a estratégia buffettiana. Os resultados apontam para a estratégia de investimento buffetiana como o estilo de investimento com melhor relação retorno / risco durante o período de investimento traçado (2000-2008). Destaque ainda para a demonstração das vantagens comparativas da Gestão Activa (e Market Timing) e Security Selection (análise fundamental e qualitativa) em relação à Gestão Passiva e Diversificação, respectivamente.; Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors in capital markets over the last 50 years. According to the latest study by U.S. magazine Forbes (2008), Buffett is considered the second richest man in the world, with an accumulated wealth of nearly 38 billion USD. This study attempts to reproduce the investment model used by Warren Buffett in the PSI-20 Index. For that...

Parametric portfolio policies: An application for a global tactical asset allocation model

Barahona, Ricardo Manuel de Sousa Machado Calvente de
Fonte: NSBE - UNL Publicador: NSBE - UNL
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /06/2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.93%
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics; Despite the extensive literature on the predictability of asset class returns and its economic significance, it is common for many asset managers to implement portfolio models built around active management within an asset class, while generally having passive allocations to each asset class based on the risk profile of the investor. We can exploit some of the predictability by using information on economic factors and momentum that explain broad asset class moves through a parametric portfolio approach introduced by Brandt, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2009). I obtain significant improvements over fixed allocations and Markowitz optimal portfolios, even when applying significant restrictions.

Managing a portfolio of real options : sequential exploration of dependent prospects

Smith, James L.; Thompson, Rex W.
Fonte: MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Publicador: MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: 26 p
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.14%
We consider the impact of sequential investment and active management on the value of a portfolio of real options. The options are assumed to be interdependent, in that exercise of any one is assumed to produce, in addition to some intrinsic value based on an underlying asset, further information regarding the values of other options based on related assets. We couch the problem in terms of oil exploration, where a discrete number of related geological prospects are available for drilling, and management₂s objective is to maximize the expected value of the combined exploration campaign. Management₂s task is complex because the expected value of the investment sequence depends on the order in which options are exercised. A basic conclusions is that, although dependence increases the variance of potential outcomes, it also increases the expected value of the embedded portfolio of options and magnifies the value of optimal management. Stochastic dynamic programming techniques may be used to establish the optimal sequence. Given certain restrictions on the risk structure, however, we demonstrate that the optimal dynamic program can be implemented by policies that are relatively simple to execute. In other words, we provide sufficient conditions for the optimality of intuitive decision rules...

International Asset Allocations and Capital Flows : The Benchmark Effect

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
This paper studies channels through which well-known benchmark indexes impact asset allocations and capital flows across countries. The study uses unique monthly micro-level data of benchmark compositions and mutual fund investments during 1996-2012. Benchmarks have important effects on equity and bond mutual fund portfolios across funds with different degrees of activism. Benchmarks explain, on average, around 70 percent of country allocations and have significant impact even on active funds. Benchmark effects are important after controlling for industry, macroeconomic, and country-specific, time-varying effects. Reverse causality does not drive the results. Exogenous, pre-announced changes in benchmarks result in movements in asset allocations mostly when these changes are implemented (not when announced). By impacting country allocations, benchmarks affect capital flows across countries through direct and indirect channels, including contagion. They explain apparently counterintuitive movements in capital flows...

Egyptian National Postal Organization : Review of Asset Management Operations

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Financial Accountability Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.19%
This report presents the missions observations and recommendations. The mission has not been able to review the investment manual and current investment procedures as the relevant documents have not been yet forwarded by Egyptian National Postal Organization (ENPO) as requested. ENPO was established in 1865 and since its creation it has always had a clear mandate of public service that remains dominant until today despite the growing competitive pressures that the organization is facing in most of its markets. ENPO's activities center around two major categories: postal and other services, and financial services. Postal services include letters (regular and express mails) and parcels. Other services are public services, such as bills payments (telecom, car insurance, and taxes) and government services, including pension payment and government money orders. ENPO currently holds 18 million savings accounts, against 8 million for the rest of the banking sector, making it the first financial institution in the country in terms of number of accounts. In terms of deposits however...

IFC Annual Report 2010 : Where Innovation Meets Impact, Volume 2. IFC Financials, Projects, and Portfolio 2010; Rapport annuel d'IFC 2010 : lieu de renconte entre innovation et impact Relatorio anual da IFC 2010 : quando a inovacao encontra o impacto Informe anual de IFC 2010 : donde la innovacion produce un impacto

International Finance Corporation
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: World Bank Annual Report
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.16%
More than 200 million people in the developing world were out of work this year. Over 1 billion are hungry, while millions more are confronting the threat that climate change poses. The United Nations estimates that 884 million people don't have safe drinking water and more than 2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation. The population of the developing world will expand by a third over the next four decades, growth that will strain already weak infrastructure. In this environment, International Finance Corporation (IFC) is innovating to create opportunity where it's needed most. IFC committed a record $18 billion in fiscal year 2010, $12.7 billion of which was for own account. We invested in 528 projects, an 18 percent increase from FY09. Advisory Services portfolio comprised 736 active projects valued at more than $850 million, with annual expenditures totaling $268 million. Countries served by the International Development Association, or IDA, accounted for nearly half our investments 255 projects totaling $4.9 billion and more than 60 percent of Advisory Services expenditures. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 19 percent of our investment commitments and 25 percent of Advisory Services expenditures. The invested a record $1.64 billion in clean energy...

How Do Countries Measure, Manage, and Monitor Fiscal Risks Generated by Public-Private Partnerships? Chile, Peru, South Africa, Turkey

Aslan, Cigdem; Duarte, David
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.13%
The topic of managing fiscal risks arising from public-private partnerships is receiving increased attention as more governments turn toward this type of financing for large infrastructure projects. Governments can manage balance sheet exposure to public-private partnerships by quantifying and capturing direct obligations and provisions for potential calls on government guarantees associated with public-private partnership projects in the preparation of the medium term fiscal framework and annual budget. This working paper examines how four countries with active public-private partnership projects manage the costs and risks of financial obligations generated by these investments throughout the lifetime of the contracts. The paper seeks to complement the existing literature with a practitioner's point of view while exploring if and how these countries monitor and evaluate the fiscal risks generated by the portfolio of public-private partnerships (as well as individual projects). The countries covered are Chile...

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2010/11-2012/13

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.14%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2010 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) is a versatile public debt management tool linked to the medium term fiscal framework that contains prudent revenue projections and planned expenditures consistent with Kenya's economic recovery effort. The strategy seeks to address the terms of new borrowing, including the appropriate mix between domestic and external debt. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2010 MTDS.

Republic of Kenya : Medium Term Debt Management Strategy, 2011/12-2013/14

Ministry of Finance
Fonte: Nairobi Publicador: Nairobi
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Financial Sector Study
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.13%
The objective of debt management in Kenya is to finance the Government financing requirements at the least cost with a prudent degree of risk. The 2011 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS) outlines the government's preferred strategy to guide debt management operations in FY2011-12. It seeks to balance the cost and risk of both the existing public debt portfolio and alternative borrowing mix. This report explores the objectives of debt management in Kenya, an overview of the previous medium term debt strategy, key developments, characteristics of the existing debt portfolio, outcomes of analysis of strategies, debt sustainability and implementing the 2011 MTDS.

Comparação entre gestão activa e gestão passiva de um portfolio de acções: um estudo empírico com base no psi 20

Oliveira, Vitor Manuel Branco
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /03/2009 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
76.37%
Mestrado em Finanças; Este trabalho visa avaliar o contributo de uma gestão activa comparativamente a uma gestão passiva no desempenho de determinado portfolio, composto por acções do PSI20. A gestão activa teve em conta uma carteira de acções determinada com base no modelo de Markowitz, enquanto que, a gestão passiva tem por base uma carteira composta por acções com proporções iguais. Na gestão activa, as proporções a investir nos activos foram revistas tendo em conta a evolução do mercado, numa base mensal. No entanto, a determinação das ponderações óptimas teve em atenção diferentes cenários em "sistema de janela". Como segundo objectivo, foi definido o estudo do impacto dos custos de intermediação financeira na performance de ambos os portfolios anteriores. Foram utilizados títulos cotados do PSI 20 durante um período de 11 anos (entre 1 de Janeiro de 1996 e 31 de Dezembro de 2006). As conclusões mostram que não compensa optar por uma gestão activa face a uma gestão passiva, quando a carteira objecto da gestão seja composta por activos cotados no PSI20. Para esta conclusão contribuem dois factores: os custos de intermediação financeira e os erros cometidos na estimação dos principais inputs para cálculo das ponderações óptimas da carteira. A melhor opção revelou-se no investimento no índice de Mercado (PSI 20).; The goal of this Thesis is to evaluate the contribution of an active management versus passive management to the portfolio performance...

A eficiência nas Carteiras de Markowitz, Variância Mínima e Naïve aplicada ao índice italiano

Martins, Luís Pedro Rosa
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2014 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
Mestrado em Finanças; O objectivo deste trabalho é verificar as possíveis vantagens da gestão activa face à gestão passiva de uma carteira de acções com a mesma composição do índice de acções italiano FTSE MIB. A gestão passiva baseia-se no método Naïve (1/N), onde a composição da carteira inclui todos os activos do indice com proporções iguais. A gestão activa baseia-se no método de Markowitz que tem como objectivo maximizar a rendibilidade tendo definido um determinado nível de risco, ou minimizar o risco tendo em conta um nível de rendibilidade esperada. Também é utilizado o método da variância mínima que consiste em minimizar o risco independentemente da rendibilidade. Nesta abordagem as proporções a investir em cada activo são revistas mensalmente tendo em conta a evolução do mercado. Para as determinar são consideradas ?janelas? de dados de 1 e 2 anos. O segundo objectivo deste trabalho é determinar o efeito dos custos de intermediação financeira no desempenho da carteira. São utilizados os títulos que compõem o índice FTSE MIB, representativo do mercado italiano desde Janeiro de 2004 até Dezembro de 2013. Os resultados mostram a superioridade da gestão activa face à passiva, sendo a carteira de Markowitz a que obteve melhor desempenho. A carteira de variância mínima obteve resultados inferiores à de Markowtiz...

Active Management vs. Passive Management in the Colombian Private Pension Open Mutual Fund Industry: A Performance Analysis Using Proxy ETFs as Market Benchmarks (Borrador de administración No. 18)

Cayón Fallon, Edgardo; Di Santo Rojas, Tomás; Roncancio Peña, Camilo
Fonte: Colégio de Estudos Superiores de Administração Publicador: Colégio de Estudos Superiores de Administração
Formato: application/pdf
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.89%
The purpose of the present study is to find evidence that if actively managed Colombian private pension open mutual funds can outperform a specific market benchmark such as a passively managed ETF. After doing a review of the existing literature on the subject, the data form thirty (30) Colombian private pension open mutual funds along with the data of thirty (30) Exchange Traded Funds was used to obtain a set of common portfolio performance measures. The results obtained indicated that only two of the thirty portfolios under study were able to beat their respective market benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis. The results indicate that in average a Colombian investor can obtain superior returns by investing in a passively managed product such as ETFs than in actively managed ones, such as the Colombian private pension open mutual funds. These results are consistent with the results of previous researchers and the existing body of literature on the subject of market efficiency.

Does specialization in security analysis and portfolio management explain deviations from the CAPM?

Keyser, Leonid
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 45 p.; 2379923 bytes; 2381696 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.08%
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which relates the risk of an individual security to its expected return, is frequently cited in investments textbooks and the academic literature as a centerpiece of modem finance theory. The main prediction of the CAPM is that investors are compensated in the form of expected return only for bearing systematic or market risk, which is the portion of a security's risk that cannot be diversified away. That investors demand reparation for and only for systematic risk is a consequence from the pivotal assumption that all investors have identical information for the entire universe of publicly traded securities. In actuality, professional active money managers rarely invest in a portfolio broad enough to be considered the market portfolio. Instead, the asset management industry has self-organized over time according to a top-down investment process, where asset allocators provide capital to security selectors who specialize in high-yield bonds, large-cap value stocks, and the like. Any losses in diversification benefits resulting from this theoretically suboptimal two-phase investment strategy are deemed an unavoidable cost of obtaining accurate forecasts through specialization in security analysis and portfolio management.; (cont.) This research paper extends the ideas of the CAPM to formulate an equilibrium security pricing model that attempts to account for the top-down approach followed by investors in the real-world.; by Leonid Keyser.; Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology...

Why Might Investors Choose Active Management?

Warren, Geoffrey; Foster, Douglas Frederick
Fonte: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group Publicador: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.92%
We investigate why investors may be willing to participate in active management, notwithstanding that the average manager is likely to generate negative alpha after fees. We model the alpha an investor expects from a dynamic strategy of investing in a portfolio of active investment managers, and the fee they are willing to pay for this strategy. The investor considers their ability to select good managers, and anticipates replacing managers when alpha expectations fall either due to a loss of confidence in the manager�s ability or from the dilutive impact of new fund flows. A numerical calibration, using inputs consistent with the literature, finds some investors can credibly select active managers at observed fee levels. Computations suggest that investors who are overly optimistic about their ability to select active managers or overlook the dynamic elements of investing with active managers may incur significant losses.

A gestão de carteira de acções aplicada ao mercado francês

Félix, João Pedro Santos Silva
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2011 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.33%
Mestrado em Finanças; O principal objectivo deste estudo é avaliar as possíveis vantagens de uma carteira caracterizada por uma gestão activa face a uma carteira caracterizada pela gestão passiva, com base no índice de acções CAC-40. A gestão activa teve por base em 2 modelos: Modelo de Markowitz (carteira óptima) e Modelo de Variância Mínima. Já a gestão passiva é baseada numa carteira composta por todas as acções em proporções iguais (carteira naïve). Na gestão activa as proporções dos activos constituintes de cada carteira foram revistos mensal, trimestral, semestral e anualmente tendo em conta a evolução do mercado. Foram consideradas janelas de dados de 1 e 2 anos para determinar as ponderações a investir em cada activo. O segundo objectivo foi analisar o impacto dos custos de intermediação financeira no desempenho das carteiras calculadas anteriormente. Foram utilizados os títulos que se mantiveram em bolsa durante o período compreendido entre Janeiro de 1997 e Dezembro de 2006, o que corresponde a 31 acções do CAC-40. Depois de realizado este trabalho, concluiu-se que a 1 mês a carteira naïve é a melhor opção de investimento e a 3 meses tanto esta carteira como a carteira de mercado são boas opções de investimento. Já a 6 e 12 meses...

A Gestão de Carteira de Acções aplicada ao mercado espanhol

Monteiro, Pedro Matoso Coimbra Sacramento
Fonte: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão Publicador: Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2011 POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
Mestrado em Finanças; A presente dissertação teve como objetivo principal analisar e comparar a gestão ativa e passiva de um determinado portfolio constituído por ações do Índice Bolsista Espanhol (IBEX 35). Na gestão ativa utilizaram-se dois modelos: uma carteira de ações determinada através do modelo de otimização de Markowitz, e uma carteira de ações resultante do modelo de variância mínima. Na gestão passiva recorreu-se a uma carteira de ações com pesos iguais. O período de tempo considerado para o efeito foi de 10 anos, de 1997 a 2006. A gestão ativa do portfolio, com base nos dois modelos considerados, consistiu na revisão mensal das proporções investidas em cada uma das ações que compuseram a carteira tendo em conta a evolução do mercado. A gestão passiva implicou um investimento de proporções iguais nos ativos constituintes da carteira, proporções essas que se mantiveram inalteradas durante o período em análise e que, portanto, não tiveram em conta a evolução do mercado. Para a determinação das ponderações das carteiras dos três modelos, utilizou-se um ?sistema de janela? de 1 e 2 anos. Um segundo objetivo deste trabalho foi perceber o impacto dos custos de intermediação financeira no desempenho dos portfolios de ações. Com este estudo...

Active extension portfolio optimization with non-convex risk measures using metaheuristics

Hochreiter, Ronald; Waldhauser, Christoph
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 30/06/2014
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.89%
We consider the optimization of active extension portfolios. For this purpose, the optimization problem is rewritten as a stochastic programming model and solved using a clever multi-start local search heuristic, which turns out to provide stable solutions. The heuristic solutions are compared to optimization results of convex optimization solvers where applicable. Furthermore, the approach is applied to solve problems with non-convex risk measures, most notably to minimize Value-at-Risk. Numerical results using data from both the Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as the DAX 30 are shown.

Active Portfolio Management, Positive Jensen-Jarrow Alpha, and Zero Sets of CAPM

Charles-Cadogan, G.
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em 20/06/2012
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.19%
We present conditions under which positive alpha exists in the realm of active portfolio management- in contrast to the controversial result in Jarrow (2010, pg. 20) which implicates delegated portfolio management by surmising that positive alphas are illusionary. Specifically, we show that the critical assumption used in Jarrow (2010, pg. 20), to derive the illusionary alpha result, is based on a zero set for CAPM with Lebesgue measure zero. So conclusions based on that assumption may well have probability measure zero of occurrence as well. Technically, the existence of [Tanaka] local time on a zero set for CAPM implies existence of positive alphas. In fact, we show that positive alpha exists under the same scenarios of "perpetual event swap" and "market systemic event" Jarrow (2010) used to formulate the illusionary positive alpha result. First, we prove that as long as asset price volatility is greater than zero, systemic events like market crash will occur in finite time almost surely. Thus creating an opportunity to hedge against that event. Second, we find that Jarrow's "false positive alpha" variable constitutes portfolio manager reward for trading strategy. For instance, we show that positive alpha exists if portfolio managers develop hedging strategies based on either (1) an exotic [barrier] option on the underlying asset - with barrier hitting time motivated by the "market systemic" event...

Orthogonal GARCH matrixes in the active portfolio management of defined benefit pension plans: A test for Michoacán

De la Torre Torres,Oscar
Fonte: UAM, Unidad Iztapalapa, Departamento de Economía Publicador: UAM, Unidad Iztapalapa, Departamento de Economía
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.21%
This paper presents the usefulness of an active portfolio management process with orthogonal GARCH (OGARCH) matrixes in order to achieve a 7.5% actuarial target return in defined benefit pension funds such as the Dirección de Pensiones Civiles del Estado de Michoacán. To prove this, four discrete event simulations were performed using, in the first scenario, a passive portfolio management process with a target position rebalancing discipline and, in the other three, an active portfolio management with a range portfolio rebalancing one. In these last three simulations, a constant covariance, a Gaussian distribution OGARCH and a Student's t-distribution OGARCH covariance matrix were used. The attained results suggest that the Student's t-distribution OGARCH matrix is the most suitable for the investment process.

A maturation model for project-based organisations - with uncertainty management as an ever-present multi-project management focus

Jerbrant,Anna
Fonte: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences Publicador: South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/01/2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.01%
The classical view of multi-project management does not capture its dynamic nature. Current theory falls short in its ability to explain how the management of project-based companies evolves because of their need to be agile and adaptable in a changing environment. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present a descriptive model that elucidates the maturation processes in a project-based organisation as well as to provide an enhanced understanding of multi-project management in practice. The maturation model illustrates the way the management of project-based organisations evolves between structuring administration and managing uncertainties, and emphasises the importance of active individual actions and situated management actions that have to be undertaken in order to coordinate, synchronise and communicate the required knowledge and skills. The outcomes primarily reveal that, although standardised project models are used and considerable resources are spent on effective project portfolio management, the way information and communication are dealt with is vitally important in the management of project-based organisations. This is particularly true of informal and non-codified communication.