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Aid for Trade, Infrastructure, and the Growth Effects of Trade Reform : Issues and Implications for Caribbean Countries

Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
This paper examines how aid-for-trade programs can help to magnify the growth benefits that developing countries can reap from trade reform and global integration, with a special emphasis on the Caribbean region. The first part discusses various rationales for trade-related aid, viewed both as a compensatory scheme (aimed at cushioning the impact of revenue cuts and adjustment costs) and a promotion scheme (aimed at alleviating supply-side constraints). In the latter case, particular attention is paid to the role of infrastructure as a constraining factor on trade expansion. The second part discusses the relevance of aid-for-trade arguments for Caribbean countries and identifies a number of specific issues for the region. The third part illustrates the potential growth effects of aid-for-trade programs with simulation results for the Dominican Republic -- a country where infrastructure indicators remain relatively weak. The results illustrate the potentially large growth benefits that a temporary and well-targeted aid-for-trade program can provide to countries of the region.

The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement : Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers

Calvo-Pardo, Hector; Freund, Caroline; Ornelas, Emanuel
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
Using detailed data on trade and tariffs from 1992-2007, the authors examine how the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement has affected trade with nonmembers and external tariffs facing nonmembers. First, the paper examines the effect of preferential and external tariff reduction on import growth from ASEAN insiders and outsiders across HS 6-digit industries. The analysis finds no evidence that preferential liberalization has led to lower import growth from nonmembers. Second, it examines the relationship between preferential tariff reduction and MFN tariff reduction. The analysis finds that preferential liberalization tends to precede external tariff liberalization. To examine whether this tariff complementarity is a result of simultaneous decision making, the authors use the scheduled future preferential tariff reductions (agreed to in 1992) as instruments for actual preferential tariff changes after the Asia crisis. The results remain unchanged, suggesting that there is a causal relationship between preferential and MFN tariff reduction. The findings also indicate that external liberalization was relatively sharper in the products where preferences are likely to be most damaging...

Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence

Wacziarg, Romain; Horn Welch, Karen
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
A new data set of on openness indicators and trade liberalization dates allows the 1995 Sachs and Warner study on the relationship between trade openness and economic growth to be extended to the 1990s. New evidence on the time paths of economic growth, physical capital investment, and openness around episodes of trade policy liberalization is also presented. Analysis based on the new data set suggests that over the 1950–98 period, countries that liberalized their trade regimes experienced average annual growth rates that were about 1.5 percentage points higher than before liberalization. Postliberalization investment rates rose 1.5–2.0 percentage points, confirming past findings that liberalization fosters growth in part through its effect on physical capital accumulation. Liberalization raised the average trade to GDP ratio by roughly 5 percentage points, suggesting that trade policy liberalization did indeed raise the actual level of openness of liberalizers. However, these average effects mask large differences across countries.

World Trade Indicators 2008 : Benchmarking Policy and Performance

Islam, Roumeen; Zanini, Gianni
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
The World Trade Indicators (WTI) database and ranking tool cover country level indicators of trade performance and policies and institutions that affect trade. The purpose of this initiative by the World Bank is to benchmark progress in these areas while highlighting important data gaps. The value of timely, good-quality data for policy making and effective international negotiations cannot be underestimated. Such data are also needed for reducing transactions costs for businesses. This publication summarizes patterns in world trade policy and trade outcomes revealed by the WTI database, focusing mainly on regional and income level variations and providing the context to help evaluate individual country progress. It is hoped that this initiative, by benchmarking country performance in various policy and outcome areas, will enhance the ability of policy makers to design and implement needed trade-related reforms. It is also hoped that countries will be further encouraged to produce better and more up to date data and make it publicly available...

Moving Forward Faster : Trade Facilitation Reform and Mexican Competitiveness

Soloaga, Isidro; Wilson, John S.; Mejía, Alejandro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
Improved competitiveness is at the top of the agenda for Mexico as it moves to leverage economic progress made over the past decade. The authors evaluate the impact of changes in trade facilitation measures on trade for main industrial sectors in Mexico. They use four indicators of trade facilitation: port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and e-commerce use by business (as a proxy for service sector infrastructure). The authors use gravity model results to consider how much trade among countries might be increased under various scenarios of improved trade facilitation. They follow a simulation strategy that uses a formula to design a unique program of reform for each country in the sample, and apply it to the case of Mexico. The formula brings the below-average countries in the group half-way to the average for the entire set of countries. After simulating these improvements in trade facilitation in all four areas, the authors find that the total increase in trade flow in manufacturing goods is estimated to be $348.2 billion (about 7.4 percent of total world trade). The analysis indicates that Mexico has a large scope for trade promotion from trade facilitation reform: overall increments from domestic reforms are expected to be on the order of $31.8 billion...

There Goes Gravity : How eBay Reduces Trade Costs

Lendle, Andreas; Schropp, Simon; Olarreaga, Marcelo; Vézina, Pierre-Louis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
This paper compares the impact of distance, a standard proxy for trade costs, on eBay and offline international trade flows. It considers the same set of 62 countries and the same basket of goods for both types of transactions, and finds the effect of distance to be on average 65 percent smaller on the eBay online platform than offline. Using interaction variables, this difference is explained by a reduction of information and trust frictions enabled through online technology. The analysis estimates the welfare gains from a reduction in offline frictions to the level prevailing online at 29 percent on average. Remote countries that are little known, with weak institutions, high levels of income inequality, inefficient ports, and little internet penetration benefit the most, as online markets help overcome government and offline market failures.

Trade Costs in the Developing World : 1995 - 2010

Arvis, Jean-François; Duval, Yann; Shepherd, Ben; Utoktham, Chorthip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
The authors use newly collected data on trade and production in 178 countries to infer estimates of trade costs in agriculture and manufactured goods for the 1995-2010 period. The data show that trade costs are strongly declining in per capita income. Moreover, the rate of change of trade costs is largely unfavorable to the developing world: trade costs are falling noticeably faster in developed countries than in developing ones, which serves to increase the relative isolation of the latter. In particular, Sub-Saharan African countries and low-income countries remain subject to very high levels of trade costs. In terms of policy implications, the analysis finds that maritime transport connectivity and logistics performance are very important determinants of bilateral trade costs: in some specifications, their combined effect is comparable to that of geographical distance. Traditional and non-traditional trade policies more generally, including market entry barriers and regional integration agreements, play a significant role in shaping the trade costs landscape.

Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 2. Quantifyng the Impact of Multilateral Trade Reform

McCalla, Alex F.; Nash, John
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries is a two-volume set. The first volume is subtitled Key issues for a pro- development outcome of the Doha Round, and it is focused on specific concerns that are being encountered in the agricultural negotiations, and on strategies for dealing with them to arrive at a final agreement that will significantly spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries. The companion volume is subtitled Quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform. It comprises chapters that take different approaches to modeling trade reform and quantifying the resulting benefits and costs to various players in the negotiations. The study explains the differences in results that come out of these different approaches, and compares them to some other recent estimates of the gains from global trade reform.

Trade, Regulations, and Growth

Bolaky, Bineswaree; Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Trade does not stimulate growth in economies with excessive business and labor regulations. The authors examine the effect of openness on growth using cross-country regressions in both levels and changes. Results from the levels regressions imply that increased openness is associated with a lower standard of living in heavily-regulated economies. Growth regressions confirm that the effect of increased trade on growth is absent in these countries. The authors also find that once they control for the effect of trade on growth in heavily regulated economies, the evidence that trade positively affects growth is stronger than has been found in previous studies. Excessive regulations restrict growth because resources are prevented from moving into the most productive sectors and to the most efficient firms following liberalization. In addition, in highly regulated economies, increased trade is more likely to occur in the wrong goods-that is, goods where comparative advantage does not lie. The results imply that countries must create a sound business environment before trade can be used as an engine of growth.

Trade Facilitation and Economic Development : New Approach to Quantifying the Impact

Wilson, John S.; Mann, Catherine L.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
This article analyzes the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows in the Asia Pacific region. Country specific data for port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and e-business usage are used to construct indicators for measuring trade facilitation. The relationship between these indicators and trade flows is estimated using a gravity model that includes tariffs and other standard variables. Enhanced port efficiency has a large and positive effect on trade flows. Regulatory barriers deter trade. Improvements in customs and greater e-business use significantly expand trade but to a lesser degree than improvements in ports or regulations. The benefits of specific trade facilitation efforts are estimated by quantifying differential improvements in these four areas among members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). A scenario in which APEC members with below-average indicators improve capacity halfway to the average forall members shows that intra-APEC trade could increase by Dollar 254 billion...

The Trade-Reducing Effects of Restrictions on Liner Shipping

Bertho, Fabien; Borchert, Ingo; Mattoo, Aaditya
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
This paper examines how policy governing the liner shipping sector affects maritime transport costs and seaborne trade flows. The paper uses a novel data set and finds that restrictions, particularly on foreign investment, increase maritime transport costs, strongly but unevenly. The cost-inflating effect ranges from 24 to 50 percent and trade on some routes may be inhibited altogether. Distance increases maritime transport costs, but also attenuates the cost impact of policy barriers. Overall, policy restrictions may lower trade flows on specific routes by up to 46 percent and therefore deserve greater attention in national reform programs and international trade negotiations.

The New Trade Environment and Trade Performance in the Caribbean

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
Caribbean countries face a rapidly changing trade environment, which presents both opportunities and challenges for economies highly dependent on external markets. The features of the new trade environment include: i) redefinition of relations with their main trading partners, including the United States, where Caribbean exports continue to enjoy preferential access under the Caribbean Basin Initiative, and the European Union, through the recently signed Economic Partnership Agreement; ii) the increasing economic influence of the new growth poles1 (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and Korea) ; iii) and the redesign of the CARICOM regional trade agreement in order to implement the Caribbean Single Market Economy (CSME) as well as a number of preferential trade agreements within the region. These changes are likely to change the trading structure of the Caribbean countries and, through this restructuring, to have implications for the welfare of these economies. Understanding these implications is critical in terms of designing appropriate policy response to the trade changes but also in terms of eventually re-shaping trade agreements and policies.

Kazakhstan Trade Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
The main message of this report is that if Kazakhstan wants to take advantage of global integration and diversification opportunities, the government needs to improve its trade policy framework, its management, and its regulations. It is also finalizing accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) while its trade strategy includes a number of free trade agreements to be negotiated. It is an active member of the Central Asia Region Economic Cooperation (CAREC). This report is composed of three policy notes that discuss how to improve the trade policy framework, management, and regulations: note one is on the trade policy framework and recommends joining the WTO on a tariff schedule that is more liberal than Russia’s; note two postulates that to benefit more fully from the WTO membership and future regional or bilateral agreements, the institutional framework for trade policy management will need a clearer strategic vision, better coordination within the government and with private sector, and enhanced human capacity; and note three suggests that for the private sector to benefit from global integration and diversification...

Trade Matters

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
Trade is essential for Caribbean countries development and poverty reduction. Given their small market size, they are dependent on exports to produce manufactured products at efficient scale. And given their natural amenities, they rely on tourism as a major spur to economic activity. Trade in the Caribbean thus makes an essential contribution to increasing employment and reducing poverty by supporting growth. At the same time, the high dependence on trade also makes Caribbean economies vulnerable to external shocks. For example, the global financial crisis imposed substantial job losses in sectors such as tourism that the poor rely on for employment. This report employs several different, but complementary, empirical approaches to analyzing the impact of this emerging new trade environment on shared prosperity in the Caribbean. These include the following six topics, with each corresponding to an individual chapter: (i) assessment of the Caribbean s performance in reaping the opportunities offered by the new trade environment; (ii) identification of the main determinants of Caribbean countries trade performance; (iii) discussion of the role of innovation and access to keys services in improving the productivity of exporting firms; (iv) exploration of how regional integration and other trade agreements could boost Caribbean trade performance; (v) firm-level examination of the implications of trade for employment; and (vi) identification of which households are involved in international trade and the implications of trade for their socio-economic status.

Reciprocity in Free Trade Agreements

Freund, Caroline
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
The author uses detailed trade, tariff, and income data for countries involved in 91 trade agreements negotiated since 1980 to test for reciprocity in free trade agreements. The results offer strong evidence of reciprocity in North-North and South-South free trade agreements, but there is little empirical support for reciprocity in North-South trade agreements. In particular, after controlling for other determinants of trade preferences, the results suggest that a one percent increase in preferences offered leads to about a one-half of a percent increase in preferences received in North-North and South-South trade agreements. Freund also finds evidence that large countries extract greater trade concessions from small countries. This leads to a modified form of reciprocity in North-South agreements. A large increase in access to a developing country market leads to only a small increase in access to a rich country market. The results imply that there are incentives for countries to maintain protection in order to extract more concessions from trade partners. But in general...

Explaining Liberalization Commitments in Financial Services Trade

Harms, Philipp; Mattoo, Aaditya; Schuknecht, Ludger
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
The authors examine the determinants of market access commitments in international financial services trade in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Based on a theoretical model, they investigate empirically the role of domestic political economy forces, international bargaining considerations, and the state of complementary policy. The empirical results confirm the relevance of the authors' model in explaining banking and (to a somewhat lesser degree) securities services liberalization commitments. The findings imply that those who seek greater access to developing country markets for financial services must do more to counter protectionism at home in areas of export interest for developing countries.

Trade Facilitation and Economic Development : Measuring the Impact

Wilson, John S.; Mann, Catherine L.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
The authors analyze the relationship between trade facilitation, trade flows, and GDP per capita in the Asia-Pacific region for the goods sector. They define and measure trade facilitation using four broad indicators. These are constructed using country-specific data for port efficiency, customs environment, regulatory environment, and electronic-business usage. They estimate the relationship between these indicators and trade flows using a gravity model. The model includes tariffs and other standard variables. The authors find that enhanced port efficiency has a large and positive effect on trade. Regulatory barriers deter trade. The results also suggest that improvements in customs and greater electronic-business use significantly expands trade, but to a lesser degree than the effect of ports or regulations. The authors then estimate the benefits of specific trade facilitation efforts by quantifying differential improvement by members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in these four areas. Based on a scenario in which APEC members below average improve capacity halfway to the average for all members...

Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries

Freinkman, Lev; Polyakov, Evgeny; Revenco, Carolina
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
The study provides a detailed quantitative analysis, based on standard econometric models, of the trends and the configuration of trade of the CIS countries, with an emphasis on its low income members. It also contains an analysis of the CIS countries' trade potential and its realization in a comparative perspective, as well as examination of the nature of the existing CIS intra-bloc trade. The study revealed no evidence that the CIS countries as a group underperform significantly in terms of either trade openness or export levels when compared to the countries of similar per capita GDP and population size. This means, however, that the low-income economies in the CIS (CIS-7) have been performing on average just marginally better than other low-income countries and that, overall, they have been falling behind the countries that benefit most from globalization. Overall, progress in the trade area was slower in the CIS-7 countries than in the higher income CIS members. This is reflected in: (i) lower overall export levels and slower export growth in the second half of the 1990s; (ii) higher trade deficits; (iii) lower share of manufacturing exports; (iv) incomplete re-orientation of trade flows from the CIS to global markets; and (v) lower incidence of intra-industry trade. The study found that the CIS free trade area is...

Pakistan : Reinvigorating the Trade Agenda

Reis, José Guilherme; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
This paper reviews Pakistan's recent trade performance, its trade policy and trade costs. Different dimensions of trade performance growth and orientation, diversification and sophistication are assessed, complemented by an in-depth analysis of export dynamics in the period 2001-10 using firm-level data. An econometric exercise is also performed to identify the impact of tariffs, exchange rates, fixed costs to export, foreign demand, and preferential trade policy on the ability of firms to increase their exports. The analysis of Pakistan's trade policy includes tariffs, effective protection and trade restrictiveness estimates, as well as an assessment of the role of preferential trade agreements in the context of regional integration. Finally, the main characteristics of trade facilitation and logistics are analyzed, covering the capacity, performance, quality of services and degree of integration of the logistics system.

Regional Integration in South Asia : What Role for Trade Facilitation?

Wilson, John S.; Otsuki, Tsunehiro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
The trade performance of countries in South Asia over the past two decades has been poor relative to other regions. Exports from South Asia have doubled over the past 20 years to approximately USD 100 billion. In contrast, East Asia's exports grew ten times over the same period. The low level of intraregional trade has contributed to weak export performance in South Asia. The empirical analysis in this paper demonstrates gains to trade in the region from reform and capacity building in trade facilitation at the regional level. When considering intraregional trade, if countries in South Asia raise capacity halfway to East Asia's average, trade is estimated to rise by USD 2.6 billion. This is approximately 60 percent of the total intraregional trade in South Asia. Countries in the region also have a stake in the success of efforts to promote capacity building outside its borders. If South Asia and the rest of the world were to raise their levels of trade facilitation halfway to the East Asian average...