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Measuring the Impacts of Global Trade Reform with Optimal Aggregators of Distortions

Laborde, David; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.67%
Traditional weighted-average measures of trade distortions are widely used in analyzing global and regional reforms, despite well-known deficiencies. This paper develops and applies optimal aggregators for the real-world case of multiple countries and commodities with much more detailed information on trade than on production and consumption. The approach reflects the fact that different aggregators are needed for expenditure on imported goods and for tariff revenues, and allows for incorporation of both intensive and extensive margins of adjustment to reform. Applications confirm that the technique is straightforward enough for widespread use, and point to close to a doubling of the welfare gains at the intensive margin when using the highest possible level of international commodity disaggregation, with larger gains in developing regions than in the industrial countries. The measured income gains increase along the entire path of liberalization, with slightly larger increases in the earlier stages, where the gaps between the responses of the expenditure and tariff revenue aggregators are largest. Sensitivity analysis suggests that...

Implications of the Doha Market Access Proposals for Developing Countries

Laborde, David; Martin, Will; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.74%
This paper uses detailed data on bound and applied tariffs to assess the consequences of the World Trade Organization s December 2008 Modalities for tariffs levied and faced by developing countries, and the welfare implications of these reforms. The authors find that the tiered formula for agriculture would halve tariffs in industrial countries and lower them more modestly in developing countries. In non-agriculture, the formulas would reduce the tariff peaks facing developing countries and cut average industrial country tariffs by more than a third. The authors use a political-economy framework to assess the implications of flexibilities for the size of the tariff cuts and find they are likely to substantially reduce the outcome. However, despite the flexibilities, there are likely to be worthwhile gains, with applied tariffs facing developing countries cut by about 20 percent in agriculture and 27 percent in non-agriculture, and sizeable cuts in tariffs facing industrial countries. The welfare impacts of reform are evaluated using a new approach to aggregation that improves on the traditional...

Smoke in the Water : The Use of Tariff Policy Flexibility in Crises

Foletti, Liliana; Fugazza, Marco; Nicita, Alessandro; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
As the economic crisis deepens and widens, fears of a return to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s become more common. However, an important difference between the 1930s and today is the existence of the World Trade Organization and the legal limits it imposes on the protectionist responses members can pursue. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, to assess the extent to which applied tariff can legally be raised without violating tariff-bound obligations, and compare it with what is economically possible. Second, to examine what has been the protectionist response of individual countries when facing an economic crisis since the creation of the WTO. Finally, to predict how far the protectionist responses will go during the current crisis. Results suggest that the policy space left when looking at what is economically possible is indeed quite large. However, in the recent past very little of the available policy space has been used by countries suffering from an economic crisis. Our predictions for the current crisis are modest tariff hikes in the order of 8 percent.

Assessing the Adjustment Implications of Trade Policy Changes Using TRIST : Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool

Brenton, Paul; Saborowski, Christian; Staritz, Cornelia; von Uexkull, Erik
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.52%
TRIST is a simple, easy to use tool to assess the adjustment implications of trade reform. It improves on existing tools. First, it is an improvement in terms of accuracy because projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates. Second, it is transparent and open; runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user; and is open-source and users are free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs. Third, TRIST has greater policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue (including VAT and excise) and results are broken down to the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified. And fourth, the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedules of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs.

Does Tariff Liberalization Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical Evidence

Milanovic, Branko; Squire, Lyn
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.64%
The objective of the paper is to answer an often asked question: If tariff rates are reduced, what will happen to wage inequality? The authors consider two types of wage inequality: between occupations (skills premium) and between industries. They use two large databases of wage inequality that have recently become available and a large data set of average tariff rates covering the period between 1980 and 2000. The authors find that tariff reduction is associated with higher inter-occupational and inter-industry inequality in poorer countries (those below the world median income) and the reverse in richer countries. However, the results for inter-occupational inequality must be treated with caution.

Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Developed Countries

Hoekman, Bernard; Ng, Francis; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.69%
Although average Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tariffs on imports from the least developed countries are very low; tariffs above 15 percent have a disproportional effect on their exports. Products subject to tariff peaks tend to be heavily concentrated in agriculture and food products and labor intensive sectors, such as apparel and footwear. Although the least developed countries benefit from preferential access, preferences tend to be smallest for tariff peak products. A major exception is the European Union, so that the recent European initiative to grant full duty free and quota free access for the least developed countries will result in only a small increase in their exports of tariff peak items. However, as preferences are less significant in other major OECD countries, a more general emulation of the European Union initiative would increase the least developed countries total exports of peak products by US dollar 2.5 billion. Although almost half of this increase is at the expense of other developing country exports...

Regional, Multilateral, and Unilateral Trade Policies on MERCOSUR for Growth and Poverty Reduction in Brazil

Harrison, Glenn W.; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David; Gurgel, Angelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.71%
The authors estimate that the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, and multilateral trade policy changes will all be beneficial for Brazil. The Brazilian government strategy of simultaneously negotiating the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreement, while supporting multilateral liberalization through the Doha Agenda, will increase the benefits of each of these policies. The authors estimate that the poorest households typically gain roughly three to four times the average for Brazil from any of the policies considerethe United States protects its most highly protected markets. Both the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreements are net trade-creating for the countries involved, but excluded countries almost always lose from the agreements. The authors estimate that multilateral trade liberalization of 50 percent in tariffs and export subsidies results in gains to the world more than four times greater than either the FTAA or the EU-MERCOSUR agreement. This shows the continued importance to the world trading community of the multilateral negotiations.

Trade Issues in East Asia : Preferential Rules of Origin

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.68%
Rules of origin are a necessary feature of any regional trade agreement. They ensure that preferences are available only to the signatories of the agreement and that imports from non-members do not avoid customs duties by entering through the member with the lowest tariff. The rules of origin define the amount of local processing, or the extent of the transformation of the product, that must be undertaken in the country from which the product claiming preferences is exported. The definition of these requirements to prevent trade deflection is not straightforward. If the rules are too onerous and complex and are costly to comply with, they will limit the impact of tariff reductions on trade. Indeed, import competing industries have often been successful in obtaining restrictive rules of origin that dilute the impact of the loss of tariff protection. This is most apparent in agreements between developed countries and lower wage countries. As FTAs multiply in the region, putting in place rules of origin (ROO) that are simple...

The Critical Mass Approach to Achieve a Deal on Green Goods and Services : What Is on the Table? How Much to Expect?

de Melo, Jaime; Vijil, Mariana
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74%
At the Davos forum of January 2014, a group of 14 countries pledged to launch negotiations on liberalizing trade in "green goods" (also known as "environmental" goods), focusing on the elimination of tariffs for an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation list of 54 products. The paper shows that the Davos group, with an average tariff of 1.8 percent, has little to offer as countries have avoided submitting products with tariff peaks for tariff reductions. Even if the list were extended to the 411 products on the World Trade Organization list, taking into account tariff dispersion, the tariff structure on environmental goods would be equivalent to a uniform tariff of 3.4 percent, about half the uniform tariff-equivalent for non-environmental goods. Enlarging the number of participants to low-income countries might be possible as, on average, their imports would not increase by more than 8 percent. However, because of the strong complementarities between trade in environmental goods and trade in environmental services...

Does Input Tariff Reduction Impact Firms Exports in the Presence of Import Tariff Exemption Regimes?

Cruz, Marcio; Bussolo, Maurizio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
In the last decade Morocco undertook substantial, if gradual, trade liberalization by reducing tariffs, reforming trade regulations and signing free and preferential trade agreements with several regions and countries, including the United States, Turkey, the European Union and Arab countries. This paper analyzes the impact of input tariff reduction on Moroccan exporting firms through the channel of intermediate goods. Gaining access to more varied and cheaper inputs can make exporting firms more competitive, and as a result they export more. To evaluate how this policy may impact firms export performance, the paper analyzes the impact of input tariff reduction on different margins of trade with emphasis on export markets and product diversification. The identification of the effect of input tariffs on exports relies on a difference-in-difference estimator using heterogeneous access to import tariff exemption as a measure of different levels of exposure to input tariff reduction at the firm level. Overall...

Implicit policy preferences and trade reform by tariff aggregates

Tyers, Rod
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 336397 bytes; 350 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.58%
Pressure from negotiators on agricultural tariff reform in the Doha Round is favouring commitments to reduce “average” tariffs over a range of commodities. This stems from the perceived need for “flexibility” in protection levels, particularly for some highly protected product groups like sugar, dairy products and rice. Yet reforms that reduce the average tariff across agricultural products but raise tariff dispersion may well reduce welfare and therefore defy the spirit of the negotiations. This paper develops a practical approach to identifying the policy preferences implicit in existing tariff patterns and employs these preferences in formulating mathematical programs that represent the primary policy formation process. These are solved and the effects explored of reform by reductions in either the arithmetic or the trade value weighted average of tariffs. In applications to the EU and Japan, tariff dispersion is found to increase with either averaging formula but by more in the trade value weighted case.; no

Relative Returns to Policy Reform : Evidence from Controlled Cross-Country Regressions

de Castro, Alexandre Samy; Goldin, Ian; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.7%
The authors aim at contributing to understand the dispersion of returns from policy reforms using cross-country regressions. The authors compare the "before reform" with "after reform" GDP growth outcome of countries that undertook import-liberalization and fiscal policy reforms. They survey a large sample (about 54) of developing countries over the period 1980-99. The benefits of openness to trade and fiscal prudence have been extensively identified in the growth literature, but the evidence from simple cross-section analysis can sometimes be inconclusive and remains vulnerable to criticism on estimation techniques, such as identification, endogeneity, multi-colinearity, and the quality of the data. The authors use a different analytical framework that establishes additional controls. First, they construct a counterfactual control group. These are countries that-under specific thresholds-did not introduce policy reforms under scrutiny. Second, the authors also try to use the most appropriate variable of policy reform...

Impact of WTO Accession and the Customs Union on the Bound and Applied Tariff Rates of the Russian Federation

Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.76%
After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average "bound" tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization...

The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : The Role of Tax Policy

Emini, Christian Arnault; Cockburn, John; Decaluwe, Bernard
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.6%
The authors aim to assess the possible impacts of the Doha Round of negotiations on poverty in Cameroon. During the recent period of economic recovery, Cameroon enjoyed a sharp decline in poverty, with the headcount index falling from 53.3 percent of inhabitants in 1996 to 40.2 percent in 2001, mostly due to economic growth rather than redistribution. Will the current trade negotiations under the Doha Round reinforce or curb this trend? They apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) microsimulation model that involves 10,992 households in order to address this question. The authors find the Doha Round to be poverty-reducing for Cameroon. For the whole country, the estimate of the net number of people who are lifted out of poverty is 22,000 following this scenario. Further investigations indicate that more ambitious world trade liberalization leads to greater poverty alleviation at the national level, while Cameroon's domestic trade liberalization has adverse poverty and inequality impacts-despite giving rise to higher aggregate welfare. Under the Doha scenario, the cuts in Cameroon's tariffs are very small (the average tariff rate moves from 11.79 percent in the base run to merely 11.66 percent) so that world trade liberalization effects on prices more than offset the adverse own liberalization effects in this scenario. If the rest of the world and Cameroon full trade liberalizations are combined...

The Structure of Import Tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05

Shepotylo, Oleksandr; Tarr, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74%
The Russian tariff structure contains over 11,000 tariff lines of which about 1,700 use the so-called "combined" tariff rate system. For the combined system tariff lines, the actual tariff applied by Russian customs is the maximum of the ad valorem or specific tariff. The lack of available data and the difficulty in calculating the ad valorem equivalence of the specific tariffs have resulted in some previous efforts that have simply ignored the specific tariffs. This is the first paper to accurately assess the tariff rates. The authors show that ignoring the specific tariffs results in an underestimate of the actual tariff rates by about 1 to 3 percentage points, depending on the year. The average tariff in Russia has increased between 2001 and 2003 from about 11.5 to between 13 and 14.5 percent, but it has held steady in 2004 and 2005. This places Russia's tariffs at a level slightly higher than other middle-income countries and considerably higher than the OECD countries. The trade weighted standard deviation of the tariff approximately doubled from 9.5 percent in 2001 to 18 percent in 2003...

Protection, Openness and Factor Adjustment : Evidence from the manufacturing sector in Uruguay

Casacuberta, Carlos; Gandelman, Néstor
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.6%
The authors use a panel of manufacturing firms to analyze the adjustment process in capital blue collar and white collar employment in Uruguay during a period of trade liberalization when average tariff protection fell from 43 to 14 percent. They calculate the desired factor levels arising from a counterfactual profit maximization in the absence of adjustment costs, generating a measure of factor shortages or surpluses. The average estimated output gap for 1982-95 is 2 percent. The authors' policy analysis shows that trade openness affected the adjustment functions of all three factors of production. Highly protected sectors adjust less when creating jobs (reducing labor shortages) than sectors with low protection. This may be due to fears of policy reversal in highly protected sectors. Also, highly protected sectors adjust more easily (than low protection sectors) when destroying jobs (reducing labor surpluses), especially in the case of blue collar labor. This suggests that trade protection may in fact destroy rather than create jobs within industries, as firms in highly protected sectors are more reluctant to hire and more ready to fire than firms in sectors with low protection. The results for capital are qualitatively similar but quantitatively smaller...

Implementing the ECOWAS Common External Tariff : Challenges and Opportunities for Nigeria

von Uexkull, Erik; Shui, Lulu
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
The common external tariff (CET) for Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was adopted at a Heads of State Summit in October 2013 in Dakar. This paper assesses the potential impact on Nigeria of implementing the new ECOWAS CET. It uses the World Bank's tariff reform impact simulation tool (TRIST) to simulate three scenarios: (i) keeping in place current import bans and levies which are charged in addition to tariffs, while implementing the CET tariff rate on non-banned products, (ii) removing the import bans and implementing the CET rate on all products, but keeping the additional import levies in place, and (iii) fully implementing the CET on all products and completely removing import bans and levies. The paper suggests that implementing the CET will have significant and largely positive effects on Nigerian consumers and producers. This note is intended to enrich the debate by presenting projections on the likely effects of CET implementation. To the extent possible with the limited available data...

Republic of Armenia : Power Sector Tariff Study

Kochnakyan, Artur; Balabanyan, Ani; Antmann, Pedro; Laderchi, Caterina Ruggeri; Olivier, Anne; Pierce, Lauren; Hankinson, Denzel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.66%
Armenia's energy sector has achieved a level of electricity reliability, service quality and efficiency of sector operations that stands out among countries participating in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Much of this can be attributed to a decade of regulatory reform including a long-standing commitment to cost-recovery tariffs. The study is structured as follows: section one provides definitions of the key terms used and a background on the current tariff setting process in Armenia. Section two indicates how far tariffs have departed from cost-recovery levels and what costs have not been covered as a result. Section three describes how new investments will affect the average cost of service and the average residential tariff. Section four proposes a marginal cost-based tariff structure and explains why this differs from the current tariff structure. Section five discusses the poverty and social impact of tariff increases needed to cover new investments in 2021. Section six identifies options for subsidization and mitigating rate shock that will help transition to higher...

Quantifying the Value of U.S. Tariff Preferences for Developing Countries

Dean, Judith M.; Wainio, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.49%
In recent debates, trade preference erosion has been viewed by some as damaging to developing countries, and by others as insignificant, except in a few cases. But little data have been available to back either view. The objective of this paper is to improve our measures of the size, utilization, and value of all U.S. nonreciprocal trade preference programs in order to shed light on this debate. Highly disaggregated data are used to quantify the margins, coverage, utilization, and value of agricultural and nonagricultural tariff preferences for all beneficiary countries in the U.S. regional programs and in the Generalized System of Preferences. Results show that U.S. regional tariff preference programs are generally characterized by high coverage of beneficiary countries'exports, high utilization by beneficiary countries, and low tariff preference margins (except on apparel). For 29 countries, the value of U.S. tariff preferences was 5 percent or more of 2003 dutiable exports to the United States, even after incorporating actual utilization. Most of this value is attributable to nonagricultural tariff preferences, and to apparel preferences in particular. These results suggest that preference erosion may be significant for more countries than many had thought.

Politically Optimal Tariffs : An Application to Egypt

Madani, Dorsati; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.69%
Egyptian economic history has been influenced by the import-substitution industrialization approach to development, dating back to Gamal Abdel Nasser's Pan-Arabic and socialist movement in the 1950s. Two major waves of liberalization have marked the government's efforts to rationalize and modernize the economy-the Infitah (opening) promoted by Anwar Sadat in the 1980s, and further trade and privatization efforts by Hosni Mubarak in the 1990s. Nonetheless, the extent of trade liberalization does not compare well with similar countries. Despite a decade of liberalization, the trade regime is characterized by deliberate and gradual reforms. By 1999 these reforms had led to average tariffs close to 30 percent, with high dispersion and escalation, well above those in comparable countries. provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general, and in its specific industries. They present the theoretical and empirical models and discuss the results. The authors also explore the potential effects of the Euro-Med agreement for Egypt The authors provide a political economy analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt in general...