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Rising Income Inequality in China : A Race to the Top

Luo, Xubei; Zhu, Nong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.35%
Income inequality in China has risen rapidly in the past decades across regions, between rural and urban sectors, and within provinces. The dynamics of divergence across these sub-national areas have taken the form of a "race to the top" - meaning that all segments of the population, including the poor with low education in lagging inland rural areas, have experienced gains in average income. The largest gains have been registered by those with higher income and education in leading coastal urban areas. Using the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey data of 1989 and 2004, we show that the most important factors explaining overall inequality are differential returns to schooling and sector of employment. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination shows that the increase in returns to education explains two-thirds of income changes in urban areas and one-sixth in rural areas. The widening income gaps are the consequence of higher growth in leading urban and coastal areas and that the skilled population has benefited more from the economic reforms carried out during the last 25 years. The authors argue that rising income inequality can be part of a normal process of development at a certain stage...

Are External Shocks Responsible for the Instability of Output in Low Income Countries?

Raddatz, Claudio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.

Exiting Belindia? Lesson from the Recent Decline in Income Inequality in Brazil

Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rocha, Sonia
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
After decades of persistent disparities, inequality in Brazil has fallen steadily over the last fifteen years. This robust rate of decline has surpassed the pace of the Latin American region as a whole, and is taking place as inequality rises in several rapid-growth emerging economies in other regions. This document examines the recent trend in income inequality in Brazil, its key policy drivers and some of the challenges ahead. It aims at capturing some of the lessons behind Brazil?s experience to share with other economies in the region and beyond.

The Inequality Possibility Frontier : Extensions and New Applications

Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
This paper extends the Inequality Possibility Frontier approach in two methodological directions. It allows the social minimum to increase with the average income of a society, and it derives all the Inequality Possibility Frontier statistics for two other inequality measures besides the Gini. Finally, it applies the framework to contemporary data, showing that the inequality extraction ratio can be used in the empirical analysis of post-1960 civil conflict around the world. The duration of conflict and the casualty rate are positively associated with the inequality extraction ratio, that is, with the extent to which elite pushes the actual inequality closer to its maximum level. Inequality, albeit slightly reformulated, is thus shown to play a role in explaining civil conflict.

Non-Farm Diversification, Poverty, Economic Mobility and Income Inequality : A Case Study in Village India

Himanshu; Lanjouw, Peter; Murgai, Rinku; Stern, Nicholas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
This paper assembles data at the all-India level and for the village of Palanpur, Uttar Pradesh, to document the growing importance, and influence, of the non-farm sector in the rural economy between the early 1980s and late 2000s. The suggestion from the combined National Sample Survey and Palanpur data is of a slow process of non-farm diversification, whose distributional incidence, on the margin, is increasingly pro-poor. The village-level analysis documents that the non-farm sector is not only increasing incomes and reducing poverty, but appears as well to be breaking down long-standing barriers to mobility among the poorest segments of rural society. Efforts by the government of India to accelerate the process of diversification could thus yield significant returns in terms of declining poverty and increased income mobility. The evidence from Palanpur also shows, however, that at the village-level a significant increase in income inequality has accompanied diversification away from the farm. A growing literature argues that such a rise in inequality could affect the fabric of village society...

Economic Development As Opportunity Equalization

Roemer, John E.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
Economic development should be conceived of as the degree to which an economy has implemented an efficient and just distribution of economic resources. The ubiquitous measure of GDP per capita reflects a utilitarian conception of justice, where individual utility is defined as personal income, and social welfare is the average of utilities in a population. A more attractive conception of justice is opportunity-equalization. Here, a two-dimensional measure of economic development is proposed, based upon viewing individuals incomes as a consequence of circumstances, effort, and policy. The first dimension is the average income level of those in the society with the most disadvantaged circumstances, and the second dimension is the degree to which total income inequality is due to differential effort, as opposed to differential circumstances. This pair of numbers is computed for a set of 22 European countries. No country dominates all others on both dimensions. The two-dimensional measure induces a partial ordering of countries with respect to development.

Growth Still Is Good for the Poor

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
Incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. These findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country-level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles.

Middle-Income Traps : A Conceptual and Empirical Survey

Im, Fernando Gabriel; Rosenblatt, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.29%
In recent years, the term "middle-income trap" has entered common parlance in the development policy community. The term itself often has not been precisely defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses in more detail definitional issues on the so-called middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a better understanding of whether the performance of the middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition phases in the inter-country distribution of income based on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle-income trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth provides additional support for the conclusions in the paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential policy implications.

Can We Discern the Effect of Globalization on Income Distribution? Evidence from Household Surveys

Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.38%
New data derived directly from household surveys are used to examine the effects of globalization on income distribution in poor and rich countries. The article looks at the impact of openness and of direct foreign investment on relative income shares across the entire income distribution. It finds strong evidence that at low average income levels, the income share of the poor is smaller in countries that are more open to trade. As national income levels rise, the incomes of the poor and the middle class rise relative to the income of the rich. The article explains why using the trade to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in purchasing power parity terms, as favored by some analysts, is inappropriate in studies of the effect of trade on income distribution.

Global Income Distribution : From the Fall of the Berlin Wall to the Great Recession

Lakner, Christoph; Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
The paper presents a newly compiled and improved database of national household surveys between 1988 and 2008. In 2008, the global Gini index is around 70.5 percent having declined by approximately 2 Gini points over this twenty year period. When it is adjusted for the likely under-reporting of top incomes in surveys by using the gap between national accounts consumption and survey means in combination with a Pareto-type imputation of the upper tail, the estimate is a much higher global Gini of almost 76 percent. With such an adjustment the downward trend in the Gini almost disappears. Tracking the evolution of individual country-deciles shows the underlying elements that drive the changes in the global distribution: China has graduated from the bottom ranks, modifying the overall shape of the global income distribution in the process and creating an important global "median" class that has transformed a twin-peaked 1988 global distribution into an almost single-peaked one now. The "winners" were country-deciles that in 1988 were around the median of the global income distribution...

Growth is Good for the Poor

Dollar, David; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
When average income rises, the average incomes of the poorest fifth of society rise proportionately. This is a consequence of the strong empirical regularity that the share of income accruing to the bottom quintile does not vary systematically with average income. The authors document this empirical regularity in a sample of 92 countries spanning the past four decades and show that it holds across regions, periods, income levels, and growth rates. The authors next ask whether the factors that explain cross-country differences in the growth rates of average incomes have differential effects on the poorest fifth of society. They find that several determinants of growth--such as good rule of law, opennness to international trade, and developed financial markets--have little systematic effect on the share of income that accrues to the bottom quintile. Consequently, these factors benefit the poorest fifth of society as much as everyone else. Thee is some weak evidence that stabilization from high inflation and reductions in the overall size of government not only increase growth but also increase the income share of the poorest fifth in society. Finally...

Main Drivers of Income Inequality in Central European and Baltic Countries : Some Insights from Recent Household Survey Data

Zaidi, Salman
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
Present levels of income inequality in Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia remain considerably higher than their pre-transition levels, although the relative pace of change over time has varied quite a bit across countries. Using data from the 2006 European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions, this paper finds that prevailing levels of income inequality in these countries continue to be low by international standards, and that this is in large part due to the very high redistributive impact of direct taxes and public transfers. In addition to the instrumental role of tax and transfer policies in redistributing income, the paper highlights the important role played by differences in education levels and labor market participation rates in explaining observed inequalities across people and across different regions (although not in explaining observed differences across countries). The paper includes an analysis of key factors that help explain observed variation across countries in the level of public support for redistribution...

Attacking Brazil's Poverty : A Poverty Report with a Focus on Urban Poverty Reduction Policies, Volume 1. Summary Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.26%
The first central message of this report is that Brazil has over the last years achieved great progress in its social policies and indicators. The second central message is that poverty remains unacceptably high for a country with Brazil's average income levels. The worst remaining income poverty is mostly concentrated in the Northeast region, and in the smaller urban and rural areas. The third central message is that, with decisive action, Brazil can achieve ambitious targets for further improvements in social indicators, including the objective of reducing the rate of extreme income poverty by 50 percent by the year 2015. Poverty is a complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon. Recognizing the rich literature on poverty in Brazil, this report attempts a few specific contributions. First, it presents a new 1996 poverty profile with a breakdown by city size, incorporation of the imputed value of owned housing, and regional price deflators. Second, it provides analysis of the incidence of selected public social spending based on the 1996/7 "Pesquisa sobre Padroes da Vida (PPV)." Third...

Brazil - Attacking Brazil's Poverty : A Poverty Report with a Focus on Urban Poverty Reduction Policies (Vol. 2 of 2) - Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.3%
The first central message of this report is that Brazil has over the last years achieved great progress in its social policies and indicators. The second central message is that poverty remains unacceptably high for a country with Brazil's average income levels. The worst remaining income poverty is mostly concentrated in the Northeast region, and in the smaller urban and rural areas. The third central message is that, with decisive action, Brazil can achieve ambitious targets for further improvements in social indicators, including the objective of reducing the rate of extreme income poverty by 50 percent by the year 2015. Poverty is a complex and multi-dimensional phenomenon. Recognizing the rich literature on poverty in Brazil, this report attempts a few specific contributions. First, it presents a new 1996 poverty profile with a breakdown by city size, incorporation of the imputed value of owned housing, and regional price deflators. Second, it provides analysis of the incidence of selected public social spending based on the 1996/7 "Pesquisa sobre Padroes da Vida (PPV)." Third...

Poverty and Income Distribution in a High Growth Economy : The Case of Chile 1987-98, Volume 2. Background Papers

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
The study analyzes Chile's strong economic growth, and well directed social programs, a combination that reduced the poverty rate in half, during a period of just eleven years. The previously noted trends in falling poverty, in terms of incidence, depth, and severity, continued into 1998, and the analysis shows there was unambiguously less poverty between 1994, and 1998, observed at all levels of income. Clearly, income poverty is related to, and impacted by a number of important factors, such as level of education, larger families, or families headed by women, and employment opportunities. Evidence shows Chile achieved considerable improvements in key social indicators, i.e., infant mortality, life expectancy, and educational coverage, for the combination of the three social sector deficit measures of poverty - education, health, and housing - with the income poverty measure, reveals that fifty one percent of all households have neither social sector, nor income deficits. Nonetheless, income inequality remained high by international standards...

The Unfairness of (Poverty) Targets

Allwine, Melanie; Rigolini, Jamele; López-Calva, Luis F.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
Adopted on September 8, 2000, the United Nations Millennium Declaration stated as its first goal that countries "...[further] resolve to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world's people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger..." Each country committed to achieve the stated goal, regardless of their initial conditions in terms of poverty and inequality levels. This paper presents a framework to quantify how much initial conditions affect poverty reduction, given a level of "effort" (growth). The framework used in the analysis allows for the growth elasticity of poverty to vary according to changes in the income distribution along the dynamic path of growth and redistribution, unlike previous examples in the literature where this is assumed to be constant. While wealthier countries did perform better in reducing poverty in the last decade and a half (1995-2008), assuming equal initial conditions, the situation reverses: the paper finds a statistically significant negative relation between initial average income and poverty reduction performance...

Taking Stock of Fiscal Health : Trends in Global, Regional, and Country Level Health Financing

Fleisher, Lisa; Leive, Adam; Schieber, George
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
This note analyzes levels and trends of health expenditures by country, income group, and region in the context of overall government revenue, expenditure, and GDP trends between 1995 and 2010. The study uses available data from the World Health Organization's (WHO) National Health Accounts, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) fiscal data bases, and the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The paper provides snapshots of health financing patterns, both public and private, at different points in time, as well as analyzing the stability of these relationships and tracing their evolution during this period. In general, there is little variation in the average income elasticity's of total, government, and out-of pocket (OOP) health spending by income level or region. The elasticity's of government health spending to total government expenditures and revenues exhibit more variation across both income groups and region than the income elasticity. Controlling for demographics moderately reduces the magnitude of these estimates. Many elasticity estimates are close to one...

Can We Discern the Effect of Globalization on Income Distribution? Evidence from Household Budget Surveys

Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.28%
The effects of globalization on income distribution in rich and poor countries are a matter of controversy. While international trade theory in its most abstract formulation implies that increased trade and foreign investment should make income distribution more equal in poor countries and less equal in rich countries, finding these effects has proved elusive. The author presents another attempt to discern the effects of globalization by using data from household budget surveys and looking at the impact of openness and foreign direct investment on relative income shares of low and high deciles. The author finds some evidence that at very low average income levels, it is the rich who benefit from openness. As income levels rise to those of countries such as Chile, Colombia, or Czech Republic, for example, the situation changes, and it is the relative income of the poor and the middle class that rises compared with the rich. It seems that openness makes income distribution worse before making it better--or differently in that the effect of openness on a country's income distribution depends on the country's initial income level.

A Note on the Simple Algebra of the Shared Prosperity Indicator

Rosenblatt, David; McGavock, Tamara J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.25%
One of the two goals of the World Bank Group's new strategy is to promote shared prosperity, defined as the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population. The simple monitoring indicator then is the income per capita of the bottom 40 percent of the population. The growth of this indicator can be decomposed into two components: the change in the share of total income accruing to the bottom 40 percent and the growth of the average income of the total population. This paper presents: (i) a brief discussion of the properties of the indicator; (ii) the simple decomposition in algebraic form; (iii) a graphical method for displaying the combinations of the two components of the decomposition; (iv) simulations of the decomposition for hypothetical countries; and (v) some illustrative data.

Hunting for Leopards : Long Run Country Income Dynamics in Africa

Arbache, Jorge Saba; Page, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or "clubs." Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African "leopards" - the regional equivalent of Asia's "tigers" - is beginning to emerge.