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Saving and Growth in Egypt

Hevia, Constantino; Loayza, Norman
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
This study illustrates the mechanisms linking national saving and economic growth, with the purpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of a saving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptian economy. This is done through a simple theoretical model, calibrated to fit the Egyptian economy, and simulated to explore different potential scenarios. The main conclusion is that if the Egyptian economy does not experience progress in productivity -- stemming from technological innovation, improved public management, and private-sector reforms -- then a high rate of economic growth is not feasible at current rates of national saving and would require a saving effort that is highly unrealistic. For instance, financing a constant 4 percent growth rate of gross domestic product per capita with no improvement in total factor productivity would require a national saving rate of around 50 percent in the first decade and 80 percent in 25 years. However, if productivity rises, sustaining and improving high rates of economic growth becomes viable. Following the previous example...

Delivering on the Promise of Pro-Poor Growth : Insights and Lessons from Country Experiences

Besley, Timothy; Cord, Louise J.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.98%
Delivering on the Promise of Pro-Poor Growth contributes to the debate on how to accelerate poverty reduction by providing insights from eight countries that have been relatively successful in delivering pro-poor growth: Bangladesh, Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Tunisia, Uganda, and Vietnam. It integrates growth analytics with the microanalysis of household data to determine how country policies and conditions interact to reduce poverty and to spread the benefits of growth across different income groups. This title is a useful resource for policy makers, donor agencies, academics, think tanks, and government officials seeking a practical framework to improve country level diagnostics of growth-poverty linkages.

Corruption, the Rusiness Environment, and Small Business Growth in India

Honorati, Maddalena; Mengistae, Taye
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.93%
This paper estimates a dynamic business growth equation on a sample of small-scale manufacturers. The results suggest that excessive labor regulation, power shortages, and problems of access to finance are significant influences on industrial growth in India. The expected annual sales growth rate of an enterprise is lower where labor regulation is greater, power shortages are more severe, and cash flow constraints are stronger. The effects of each of the three factors on business growth seem also to depend on a fourth element, namely, corruption. Specifically, labor regulation affects the growth only of enterprises for which corruption is not a factor in business decisions. By contrast, power shortages seem to be a drag on the growth only of enterprises self-reportedly held back by corruption. Lastly, sales growth is constrained by cash flow only in businesses that are not affected by labor regulation, power shortages, or corruption. The analysis uses corruption as a proxy for the quality of "property rights institutions" and considers labor regulation and small business financing as instances of "contracting institutions." The findings on the interaction between corruption and other aspects of business environment then seems to indicate that the quality of property rights institutions exerts more abiding influence on economic outcomes than the quality of contracting institutions. Moreover...

The Impact of Economic Reforms in Rural Households in Ethiopia : A Study from 1989 to 1995

Dercon, Stefan
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.92%
This study examines the poverty, and growth experience of six villages in rural Ethiopia, from 1989 to 1995. The time period was one of relative peace politically, which promoted considerable change in economic policies pertaining to the rural sector. As a result, local growth out-performed the average growth rate in gross domestic product. The focus of the study is the link between economic reforms, growth, and changes in poverty. The author poses the question: Can the observed reduction in poverty be explained by reform-induced higher returns to physical, and human capital, or simply by better weather? To find the answer, a profit function framework is employed to explain growth using prices, and endowments of land, labor, human capital, and location characteristics, with controls for shocks (for example, ill health and drought). The analysis finds that, on average, the poor has benefited more from the reforms than have the non-poor. But the experience of the poor is mixed, with some out-performing all other households...

When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence

Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.99%
Growth is pro-poor if the poverty measure of interest falls. According to this definition there are three potential sources of pro-poor growth: (1) a high rate of growth of average incomes; (2) a high sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes; and (3) a poverty-reducing pattern of growth in relative incomes. The author empirically decomposes changes in poverty in a large sample of developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s into these three components. In the medium to long run, most of the variation in changes in poverty can be attributed to growth in average incomes, suggesting that policies and institutions that promote broad-based growth should be central to the pro-poor growth agenda. Most of the remainder of the variation in poverty is due to poverty-reducing patterns of growth in relative incomes, rather than differences in the sensitivity of poverty to growth in average incomes. Cross-country evidence provides relatively little guidance as to the policies and institutions that promote these other sources of pro-poor growth.

Growth Still Is Good for the Poor

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.02%
Incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. These findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country-level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles.

Exporter Dynamics, Firm Size and Growth, and Partial Year Effects

Bernard, Andrew B.; Massari, Renzo; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.96%
Two otherwise identical firms that enter the same market in different months, one in January and one in December, will report dramatically different annual sales for the first calendar year of operations. This partial year effect in annual data leads to downward biased observations of the level of activity upon entry and upward biased growth rates between the year of entry and the following year. This paper examines the implications of partial year effects using Peruvian export data. The partial year bias is very large: the average level of first-year exports of new exporters is understated by 65 percent and the average growth rate between the first and second year of exporting is overstated by 112 percentage points. This paper re-examines a number of stylized facts about firm size and growth that have motivated rapidly expanding theoretical and empirical literatures on firm export dynamics. Correcting the partial year effect eliminates unusually high growth rates in the first year of exporting, raises initial export levels...

Inequality is Bad for Growth of the Poor (But Not for That of the Rich)

van der Weide, Roy; Milanovic, Branko
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.98%
The paper assesses the impact of overall inequality, as well as inequality among the poor and among the rich, on the growth rates along various percentiles of the income distribution. The analysis uses micro-census data from U.S. states covering the period from 1960 to 2010. The paper finds evidence that high levels of inequality reduce the income growth of the poor and, if anything, help the growth of the rich. When inequality is deconstructed into bottom and top inequality, the analysis finds that it is mostly top inequality that is holding back growth at the bottom.

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 1 of 2)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 2 of 2)

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.89%
Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.

Jordan - Policies for High and Sustained Growth for Job Creation : Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 2012 Development Policy Review (Vol. 1 of 2) : Synthesis

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Development Policy Review (DPR); Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.79%
Jordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.

Growth Trends in the Developing World : Country Forecasts and Determinants

Ianchovichina, Elena; Kacker, Pooja
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56%
The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam

Dollar, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.95%
Vietnam grew rapidly in the 1990s, and yet by many measures it has poor economic institutions. Dollar seeks to explain this apparent anomaly. Between the 1980s and 1990s Vietnam carried out significant economic reforms, notably stabilization, the introduction of positive real interest rates, trade liberalization, and initial property rights reform in agriculture. Relating these changes to the empirical growth literature, the author finds that Vietnam's growth acceleration is about what would be predicted. Conditional convergence also suggests that the country's high growth rate will decelerate unless further reforms are taken. The author then looks at the level of institutional and policy development in Vietnam compared with other emerging market economies. While Vietnam's policies have improved, they did so starting from a very low base. So, it can be simultaneously true that Vietnam's policies have improved a lot and yet are rather poor in comparative perspective. A comparison of governance indicators...

Brazil : Growth and Poverty Reduction in Pernambuco

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.83%
Despite its origin as one of the pioneering and richest states of Brazil, Pernambuco today has a history of slower economic growth than Brazil as a whole. Pernambuco began as a sugar producing state and the expansion of sugar production led its economic development until the mid 1600s. Then Pernambuco declined, as sugar production became more profitable elsewhere in the world. It is estimated that, since 1939, the first year for which we have regionalized GDP data, Pernambuco's growth rate has been slower than Brazil's average. Although poverty data is much more recent, the story provided by the available data is that since the early 1980s, Pernambuco has made little or no headway in reducing absolute poverty. These facts motivate the present report, which focuses on 1) analyzing, in collaboration with the Government of Pernambuco, economic growth and poverty in the State; and 2) identifying policies that can enhance economic growth and reduce poverty while improving fiscal performance. These two themes govern the structure of the report...

Togo Growth Diagnostics

Lundstrom, Susanna; Garrido, Leonardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.99%
This paper starts by analyzing past growth trends and sources of growth in Togo, as well as the structure of the economic actors in the country. The second part explores the current binding constraints to rapid and sustainable growth. For increased international competitiveness and growth, Togo will need to raise efforts to streamline its costly and cumbersome business procedures. However, for this to have a sizable impact, Togo must prove to potential investors that political stability is permanent and that corruption, poor budget execution and mismanagement of state owned enterprises belongs to the past. As a result of the new government's reform agenda and the return of international aid, a window of opportunities for high returns to the still limited public investments has opened up. This is especially true in infrastructure and connectivity services, which would not only take advantage of Togo's geographical location as a regional hub, but also make growth in Togo more inclusive. And as economic opportunities arise for the private sector...

Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.97%
Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at Risk summarizes the expected maximum economic downturn over a target horizon at a given confidence level. After providing a taxonomy of growth risks, the authors construct a panel data, set on Growth at Risk for 84 countries, over the period 1980-98. On average, different regional groups experience very distinct Growth at Risk patterns over time. 1) Non-OECD countries experience a higher downturn risk, while OECD countries' downturn risks for both big, and small recessions are the lowest among all groups. 2) East Asia countries, which had been growing faster, had a high Growth at Risk for big downturns, at around six percent, and it rose dramatically at the end of the 1990s. 3) Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa also maintained high Growth at Risk for both big...

Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks

Go, Delfin S.; Page, John
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.98%
This book is a collection of essays that seeks to answer three interrelated sets of questions about Africa's recent growth recovery. The first set of essays addresses questions about the drivers and durability of Africa's growth. How different is current economic performance compared to Africa's long history of boom-bust cycles? Have African countries learned to avoid past mistakes and pursued the right policies? How much of the current performance depends on good luck such as favorable commodity prices or the recovery of external assistance and how much depends on hard-won economic policy reforms. A second set of essays looks at the role of donor flows. External assistance plays a larger role in Africa's growth story than in any other part of the developing world. As a result, the economic management of external assistance is a major public policy challenge, and donor behavior is a significant source of external risk. The third set of essays looks at questions arising from commodity price shocks especially from changes in the price of oil. Relative to factors such as policy failures...

Shared Prosperity : Links to Growth, Inequality and Inequality of Ppportunity

Narayan, Ambar; Saavedra-Chanduvi, Jaime; Tiwari, Sailesh
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.98%
Focusing on the welfare of the less well off as a measure of real societal progress is the fundamental principle underlying the WBG indicator of "shared prosperity", namely income growth of the bottom 40 percent in every country. This paper uses a database assembled by the World Bank Group to investigate some basic characteristics of shared prosperity, particularly its relationship with overall economic growth and inequality. Initial estimates using this dataset of 79 countries show that median income growth of the bottom 40 percent (circa 2005-2010) was 4.2 percent, a high number in comparison to the 3.1 percent per capita income growth of the overall population. In addition, the low and lower-middle income countries appear to be trailing the upper middle and high income countries in boosting shared prosperity. Establishing conceptual links between income growth of the bottom 40 percent, the overall growth rate and reviewing existing evidence on how these relate to inequality, the paper discusses two main ideas. First...

China's Growth and Poverty Reduction : Trends between 1990 and 1999

Chen, Shaohua; Wang, Yan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.97%
The authors investigate recent rends in poverty, and inequality in China, decomposing data on poverty reduction to see who has benefited most from China's economic growth. They find that, by several measures, poverty declined significantly in the 1990s, across a wide range of poverty lines, except that a slight slowdown in China's export, and economic growth in 1997-99 might have hurt the poor. There was a slight increase in the poverty headcount between 1997 and 1999, using lower poverty lines, and a worsening of the poverty gap index. Average per capita consumption declined for farmers, especially those living in poor regions such as Gans, Heilongjiang, Sanxi, and Xinjiang. It is unclear whether this decline was attributable to Asia's economic crisis. Economic growth contributed significantly to poverty reduction, but rising inequality worsened both rural, and urban income distributions - except during the Asian crisis, when the distribution remained relatively stable. The poor benefited far less than the rich from economic growth. Income growth reached...

Water relations and leaf growth rate of three agropyron genotypes under water stress

García,María G.; Busso,Carlos A.; Polci,Pablo; García Girou,Norberto L.; Echenique,Vivivan
Fonte: Biocell Publicador: Biocell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2002 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.72%
The effects of water stress on leaf water relations and growth are reported for three perennial tussock grass genotypes under glasshouse conditions. Studies were performed in genotypes El Palmar INTA and Selección Anguil of Agropyron scabrifolium (Döell) Parodi, and El Vizcachero of A. elongatum (Host) Beauv. Agropyron scabrifolium El Palmar INTA is native to a region with warm-temperate and humid climate without a dry season, and an average annual precipitation of 900 mm. Agropyron scabrifolium Selección Anguil comes from a region with a sub-humid, dry to semiarid climate and a mean annual precipitation of 600 mm. Agropyron elongatum is a widespread forage in semiarid Argentina with well-known water stress resistance. A mild water stress treatment was imposed slowly; plants reached a minimum pre-dawn leaf water potential of about -1.83 MPa by day 21 after watering was withheld. In all genotypes, water stress led to a reduction of leaf growth. There was a tendency for a greater epicuticular wax accumulation on water-stressed plants of A. scabrifolium Selección Anguil and A. elongatum than on those of A. scabrifolium El Palmar INTA. This may have contributed to obtain greater turgor pressures and relative water contents in the first two than in the later genotype. In turn...