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International Growth Spillovers, Geography and Infrastructure

Roberts, Mark; Deichmann, Uwe
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
There is significant academic evidence that growth in one country tends to have a positive impact on growth in neighboring countries. This paper contributes to this literature by assessing whether growth spillovers tend to vary significantly across world regions and by investigating the contribution of transport and communication infrastructure in promoting neighborhood effects. The study is global, but the main interest is on Sub-Saharan Africa. The authors define neighborhoods both in geographic terms and by membership in the same regional trade association. The analysis finds significant evidence for heterogeneity in growth spillovers, which are strong between OECD countries and essentially absent in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis further finds strong interaction between infrastructure and being a landlocked country. This suggests that growth spillovers from regional "success stories" in Sub-Saharan Africa and other lagging world regions will depend on first strengthening the channels through which such spillovers can spread -- most importantly infrastructure endowments.

Fostering Higher Growth and Employment in the Kingdom of Morocco

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.96%
This book identifies the binding constraints to growth of Morocco. It applies an innovative procedure known as "growth diagnostic" and has a central finding. The Moroccan economy suffers from a too slow process of structural transformation for achieving higher growth, especially for its exports that face unfavorable external shocks arising from competitor countries in the main markets for Moroccan exports. This process of so-called "productive diversification" requires that Morocco enhance its competitiveness.

Corruption, the Rusiness Environment, and Small Business Growth in India

Honorati, Maddalena; Mengistae, Taye
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
This paper estimates a dynamic business growth equation on a sample of small-scale manufacturers. The results suggest that excessive labor regulation, power shortages, and problems of access to finance are significant influences on industrial growth in India. The expected annual sales growth rate of an enterprise is lower where labor regulation is greater, power shortages are more severe, and cash flow constraints are stronger. The effects of each of the three factors on business growth seem also to depend on a fourth element, namely, corruption. Specifically, labor regulation affects the growth only of enterprises for which corruption is not a factor in business decisions. By contrast, power shortages seem to be a drag on the growth only of enterprises self-reportedly held back by corruption. Lastly, sales growth is constrained by cash flow only in businesses that are not affected by labor regulation, power shortages, or corruption. The analysis uses corruption as a proxy for the quality of "property rights institutions" and considers labor regulation and small business financing as instances of "contracting institutions." The findings on the interaction between corruption and other aspects of business environment then seems to indicate that the quality of property rights institutions exerts more abiding influence on economic outcomes than the quality of contracting institutions. Moreover...

Ghana - Promoting Growth, Reducing Poverty

Alam, Asad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.95%
The policy reforms since 1983 have reduced the fiscal deficit and inflation, helped improve infrastructure services, and shifted relative prices and incentives towards the tradable sector, in general, and towards exports, in particular. The key element of fiscal consolidation up to 1991 was the growth in government revenues, whose share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose from 6 percent in 1983 to 13 percent in 1986 and to 16 percent in 1991. Higher revenues made it possible to reduce the fiscal deficit and, at the same time, increase public investment in infrastructure which had virtually collapsed prior to 1983. Prudent monetary management also led to inflation falling from 123 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 1986 and 18 percent in 1991. The resulting improvements in macroeconomic stability made it possible for farms and firms to respond to the shift in production incentives induced by the policy reforms. As a result of these reforms, the economy turned around. Although economic activity witnessed its biggest surge during the early years of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) (5.3 percent annually during 1983-86)...

Growth Still Is Good for the Poor

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.17%
Incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. These findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country-level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles.

Exporter Dynamics, Firm Size and Growth, and Partial Year Effects

Bernard, Andrew B.; Massari, Renzo; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.15%
Two otherwise identical firms that enter the same market in different months, one in January and one in December, will report dramatically different annual sales for the first calendar year of operations. This partial year effect in annual data leads to downward biased observations of the level of activity upon entry and upward biased growth rates between the year of entry and the following year. This paper examines the implications of partial year effects using Peruvian export data. The partial year bias is very large: the average level of first-year exports of new exporters is understated by 65 percent and the average growth rate between the first and second year of exporting is overstated by 112 percentage points. This paper re-examines a number of stylized facts about firm size and growth that have motivated rapidly expanding theoretical and empirical literatures on firm export dynamics. Correcting the partial year effect eliminates unusually high growth rates in the first year of exporting, raises initial export levels...

Mapping Serbia's Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.99%
Big cities are becoming even bigger and these have been and will be the key drivers of economic growth in Serbia. Belgrade, Novi Sad, Nis and Kragujevac, Serbia's four largest cities contributed to about 60 percent of the increase of value added in the economy over the period 2001-2008. These four largest cities in 2008 accounted for about two thirds of country s economy. Spatial characteristics of foreign direct investments inflow, privatization process and location of export oriented sectors, indicate significant concentration. FDI and privatization were attracted by largest cities, though the proximity to the key transit routes, like Corridor 10, is also important for making decision where to invest. Export is concentrated in several places, depending on the type of production, and proximity of major export markets contributed to concentration of export near the borders of the EU (i.e., Hungary) and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the second most important export market for Serbia. Spatially uneven growth caused differences in living standards. Wages did not play significant role...

Tanzania - Sustaining and Sharing Economic Growth : Country Economic Memorandum and Poverty Assessment, Volume 1. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.93%
Tanzania's National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP) sets an ambitious target of 6 to 8 percent annual economic growth to achieve rapid reduction in poverty. This report focuses on three issues that are central to the success of Tanzania's poverty reduction efforts: 0 what factors explain Tanzania's recent acceleration in economic growth; has the accelerated economic growth translated into reduced poverty; and what must be done to sustain economic growth that is pro-poor. The report presents evidence from the macroeconomic, sectoral, and firm and household levels that shed light on these questions. The report is presented in two volumes. Volume I summarizes the main findings and recommendations. Volume II contains the main report.

Bangladesh : Strategy for Sustained Growth, Volume 1. Summary Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.92%
The premise of the report on a strategy for sustained growth is that Bangladesh, could join the ranks of middle-income countries (MICs) within a decade by 2016 or some time soon after. It has the necessary assets: much-improved economic fundamentals; success in implementing many first-generation reforms; a young, rapidly growing labor force; and an established entrepreneurial culture. To pick up pace in the development marathon, Bangladesh will need to deepen its industrial base, further its economic integration with global markets, and unleash the growth potentials of its major urban centers, Dhaka especially. Reform measures essential to these objectives include continuing macroeconomic stability, with emphasis on strengthening tax mobilization and tackling energy sector losses; deepening financial sector and external trade reforms; and rebalancing the policy focus toward hitherto neglected structural areas - economic governance, urban management, infrastructure (especially power sector, ports, and transportation)...

Growth Trends in the Developing World : Country Forecasts and Determinants

Ianchovichina, Elena; Kacker, Pooja
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.11%
The authors present real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the period 2005-14. For 55 of these countries, representing major world regions and accounting for close to 80 percent of the developing world's GDP, they forecast the growth effects of the main forces underpinning growth, assuming that these evolve following past trends. The authors find that for the average developing country the largest growth dividend comes from continued improvement in public infrastructure, followed by the growth contributions of rising secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of these four growth determinants to average, annual per capita GDP growth in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Failure to keep improving public infrastructure alone could reduce this growth dividend by 50 percent. The forecasted growth contributions differ by country qualitatively and quantitatively.

Markups, Returns to Scale, and Productivity: A Case Study of Singapore's Manufacturing Sector

Kee, Hiau Looi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.11%
The results of this paper challenge the conventional wisdom in the literature that productivity plays no role in the economic development of Singapore. Properly accounting for market power and returns to scale technology, the estimated average productivity growth is twice as large as the conventional total factor productivity (TFP) measures. Using a standard growth accounting (production function) technique, Young (1992, 1995) found no sign of TFP growth in the aggregate economy and the manufacturing sector of Singapore. Based on Young's results, Krugman (1994) claimed that there was no East Asia miracle as all the economic growth in Singapore could be attributed to its capital accumulation in the past three decades. Citing evidence on nondiminishing market rates of return to capital investment in Singapore during the period of fast growth as an indication of high productivity growth, Hsieh (1999) challenged Young's findings using the dual approach. But all of these papers maintained the assumptions of perfect competition and constant returns to scale and used only aggregate macro-level data. Kee uses industry level data and focuses on Singapore's manufacturing sector. She develops an empirical methodology to estimate industry productivity growth in the presence of market power and nonconstant returns to scale. The estimation of industry markups and returns to scale in this paper combines both the production function (primal) and the cost function (dual) approaches while controlling for input endogeneity and selection bias. The results of a fixed effect panel regression show that all industries in the manufacturing sector violate at least one of the two assumptions. Relaxing the assumptions leads to an estimated productivity growth that is on average twice as large as the conventional TFP calculation. Kee concludes that productivity growth plays a nontrivial role in the manufacturing sector.

Brazil - Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rio Gande Do Norte: A State Economic Memorandum

World Bank
Fonte: Washington DC Publicador: Washington DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.01%
Brazil was the fastest growing country in the world between 1930 and 1995, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. By 2000, Brazil's per-capita income stood at R$6,500. While RN's per capita income is slightly above half the national average, it increased from 43 percent of the national average in 1947 to 47 percent in 1998, implying that RN's economy grew faster than that of Brazil for over half a century. This has also been true in recent years. Between 1990-1998, RN's income per capita showed a respectable trend growth rate of 3.0 percent. The close relationship between Brazil's economic growth and RN's economic progress in the last five decades reflects a response to common macroeconomic forces and external environment as well as the enormous influence of national policies and programs on RN's economy. However, the state can also implement policies and programs to stimulate growth and employment. For this purpose, an understanding of trends in state GDP and employment and of the sources of growth is important. RN's economy has undergone a rapid and welcome transformation from one dependent on salt...

Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.12%
Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at Risk summarizes the expected maximum economic downturn over a target horizon at a given confidence level. After providing a taxonomy of growth risks, the authors construct a panel data, set on Growth at Risk for 84 countries, over the period 1980-98. On average, different regional groups experience very distinct Growth at Risk patterns over time. 1) Non-OECD countries experience a higher downturn risk, while OECD countries' downturn risks for both big, and small recessions are the lowest among all groups. 2) East Asia countries, which had been growing faster, had a high Growth at Risk for big downturns, at around six percent, and it rose dramatically at the end of the 1990s. 3) Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa also maintained high Growth at Risk for both big...

The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development; Informe sobre el crecimiento : estrategias para el crecimiento sostenido y el desarrollo incluyente

Commission on Growth and Development
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.99%
The report has four main parts. In the first, the commission reviews the 13 economies that have sustained, high growth in the postwar period. Their growth models had some common flavors: the strategic integration with the world economy; the mobility of resources, particularly labor; the high savings and investment rates; and a capable government committed to growth. The report goes on to describe the cast of mind and techniques of policy making that leaders will need if they are to emulate such a growth model. It concludes that their policy making will need to be patient, pragmatic, and experimental. In the second part, the commission lays out the ingredients a growth strategy might include. These range from public investment and exchange rate policies to land sales and redistribution. A list of ingredients is not enough to make a dish, of course, as Bob Solow, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and a member of the Commission, points out. The commission, however, refrains from offering policy makers a recipe...

Belarus : Window of Opportunity to Enhance Competitiveness and Sustain Economic Growth, A Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus, Volume 1, Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.88%
This Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) for the Republic of Belarus takes stock of the growth trends in the country's economy since 1996, reviews the evidence of the accumulated challenges and risks within the existing growth patterns, and provides recommendations aimed at strengthening growth sustainability. In sum, while economic growth in the last nine years has been impressive, the report argues that maintaining the current growth strategy would lead to a gradual erosion of economic competitiveness. The government should make significant policy adjustments by reorienting its policies toward ensuring a better business environment, and a smaller sized government. Current international and domestic environment are favorable for supporting a policy shift toward the acceleration of structural reforms. At the moment, the government is well equipped to mitigate the potential costs of these reforms, because the policy settings are largely determined by the growing economy, the positive trends in both the enterprise and the household sectors, favorable developments in the global economy, low debt, and the strong administrative capacity of the state. This situation could change: various pressures might become stronger, and then these same reforms would become politically more costly...

How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

Ahmed, S. Amer; Cruz, Marcio; Go, Delfin S.; Maliszewska, Maryla; Osorio-Rodarte, Israel
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56%
Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become much more substantial with even better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50 percent between 2011 and 30...

Brazil : The New Growth Agenda, Volume 2. Detailed Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.92%
During the last century, Brazil was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Between 1901 and 2000, Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita grew at an average annual rate of 4.4 percent. Brazil's long-run growth has rivaled that of counties such as South Korea, universally praised as a stellar performer. Brazil does not received the same praise. Perhaps one reason is that more has been expected of Brazil, especially by Brazilians themselves. After all the country is richly endowed with natural resources and is blessed with an energetic people. Perhaps is that economic growth in Brazil has been more erratic than in other countries, or it may be that this economic growth performance has been accompanied by high inequality, thus diminishing the "quality" of growth. How is it that the country with the fastest growth in the region also has the highest inequality? Are the two facts related, and if so, what can be done to improve the pattern of future income growth across the social classes...

Trade, Capital Accumulation, and Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study of the Singapore Economy

Looi Kee, Hiau; Teck Hoon, Hian
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.89%
The past three and a half decades witnessed a distinctly declining trend in Singapore's unemployment rate, which dropped from an average annual rate of 7.85 percent in 1966-70 to 2.74 percent in 1991-2000. The authors seek to identify and empirically examine the factors that have influenced Singapore's unemployment rate in an environment of low and stable inflation. They incorporate a union bargaining framework into a standard-factors trade model, in which an increase in the relative price or capital stock in the export sector raises the demand wage that firms can afford to pay relative to workers' fall-back income, and consequently lowers equilibrium unemployment. The magnitude of the effects depends on the fall-back income, the weight unions attach to employment, and the elasticity of labor demand, which the authors estimate using data on Singapore. The results show that labor unions in Singapore care more about employment than wages. Together with a small fall-back income and elastic labor demand, the authors show that given the same percentage change in relative export prices and capital accumulation in the export sector...

Sources of China's Economic Growth, 1952-99 : Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.04%
China's performance in economic growth, and poverty reduction has been remarkable. There is an ongoing debate about whether this growth is mainly driven by productivity, or factor accumulation. But few past studies have incorporated information on China's human capital stock, and thus contained an omission bias. The authors construct a measure of China's human capital stock from 1952 to 1999, and, using a simple growth accounting exercise, incorporate it in their analysis of the sources of growth, during the pre-reform (1952-77), and the reform period (1978-99). They find that the accumulation of human capital in China (as measured by the average years of schooling for the population aged 15 to 64) was quite rapid, and contributed significantly to growth, and welfare. After incorporating human capital, they also find that the growth of total factor productivity, still plays a positive, and significant role during the reform period. In contrast, productivity growth was negative in the pre-reform period. The results are robust to changes in labor shares in GDP. The recent declining rate of human capital accumulation is a cause for concern...

Endowments, Location or Luck? Evaluating the Determinants of Sub-National Growth in Decentralized Indonesia

McCulloch, Neil; Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.1%
Indonesia's "big bang" decentralization in 2001 shifted much of the responsibility for local economic development from central government to district and city governments, which today number more than 450. But the performance of these districts has varied widely. This paper attempts to understand the determinants of sub-national (district/city) growth in Indonesia and map how these determinants have changed since before the 1997/98 economic crisis. The authors exploit a rich dataset that includes a wide range of district-level characteristics, including education, population, cultural, economic, and infrastructure variables, as well as a set of variables relating to distance, to try to explain growth. The analysis finds that, after accounting for differences in other variables, poorer districts tend to grow faster than better off districts. Similarly, there is evidence of spatial divergence, in the sense that districts tend to grow faster if their neighbors are growing quickly. However, the quality of the existing district-level data makes it difficult to identify whether endowments or factors related to distance are systematically associated with growth.