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Global Imbalances Before and After the Global Crisis

Servén, Luis; Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the roots of global imbalances, their role in the inception of the global crisis, and their prospects in its aftermath. The conventional view holds that global imbalances result primarily from unsustainably high demand for goods in the United States and other rich countries, and that their impending correction must involve major United States trade adjustment and dollar depreciation -- although recent literature argues that their extent may be dampened by financial adjustment effects. In contrast, an alternative view portrays global imbalances as the equilibrium result of asymmetries in world asset demand and supply. Absent changes in the deep determinants of these, global imbalances can persist. International capital flow patterns before and during the crisis lend support to the equilibrium view. The paper also examines different hypotheses proposed in the literature on the role of global imbalances in the generation and propagation of the financial crisis. On the whole...

The Current Account as A Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem

Didier, Tatiana; Lowenkron, Alexandre
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.43%
The current account can be understood as the outcome of investment decisions made by domestic and foreign investors. These decisions can be decomposed into a portfolio rebalancing and a portfolio growth component. This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of portfolio rebalancing for the dynamics of the current account. The authors evaluate the predictions of a partial-equilibrium model of the current account with dynamic portfolio choices, in which portfolio rebalancing is driven by changes in investment opportunities. Using data for the United States and Japan, the authors find evidence supporting innovations in investment opportunities as an important mechanism to explain international capital flows.

Reform of the International Monetary System : A Jagged History and Uncertain Prospects

Lin, Justin Yifu; Fardoust, Shahrokh; Rosenblatt, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
This paper analyzes the historical evolution of the international monetary system in the context of the rising role of developing countries in the world economy and the emerging multi-polar growth setting. It evaluates the stability of the current "non-system" and how the global economic context is likely to affect that stability in the coming years with potential adverse effects on both advanced and developing economies. Given the likely trend toward a multi-polar reserve currency system, the paper evaluates the stability of the emerging system, as well as the current proposals for reform of the international monetary system. The paper concludes that more ambitious reforms of the system may be needed to meaningfully reduce future global economic and financial instability.

The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis?

Lin, Justin Yifu; Treichel, Volker
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries...

Partial Consumption Insurance and Financial Openness Across the World

Hevia, Constantino; Servén, Luis
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.22%
This paper examines the extent of international consumption risk sharing for a group of 50 industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on the empirical implementation of a model of partial consumption insurance whose parameters have the natural interpretation of coefficients of partial risk sharing even when the 0 hypothesis of perfect risk sharing is rejected. Estimation results show that rich countries exhibit higher degrees of risk sharing than developing countries, and that the gap between both country groups appears to have widened over the period of financial globalization. Moreover, the pattern of consumption risk sharing is related to the degree of financial openness: countries with larger stocks of foreign assets or liabilities exhibit larger degrees of risk sharing. Furthermore, countries whose foreign asset stocks are more tilted towards foreign direct investment assets also show higher degrees of consumption risk sharing.

Ride the Wild Surf : An Investigation of the Drivers of Surges in Capital Inflows

Calderón, César; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.37%
Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries.

Financial Sector Assessment : Barbados

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
The financial system faces a weak economic outlook and a deteriorating fiscal position posing substantial macroeconomic risks. As a result, sovereign risk has increased while the fixed exchange rate further limits policy options. The financial system has sizeable sovereign risk exposures and non-performing loans are rising although high capital and liquidity buffers in combination with strong parent entities mitigate risks. Credit unions appear more vulnerable. Since the 2008 financial sector assessment program (FSAP), the regulatory and supervisory framework has improved across all sectors. Consolidated risk-based supervision was introduced in the banking sector along with a formalization of supervisory methodologies. The government has committed a major adjustment package aimed at stabilizing international reserves and consolidating the fiscal position. Even if planned policies are successful, Barbados will continue to face challenging growth prospects, driven by weakened tourism markets, including Canada, the United Kingdom...

Kazakhstan Growth Slows as External Pressures Rise : Kazakhstan Economic Update, Fall 2014

World Bank Group
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
Kazakhstan is experiencing slower economic growth in 2014 due to negative supply- and demand-side effects. The Kazakh authorities are using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate domestic demand. An uncertain global economic environment and regional geopolitical tensions pose risks to the economic outlook of Kazakhstan. If the economic slowdown starts to have a negative effect on the labor market, the government has instruments to mitigate its impact on the most vulnerable population. The government has identified a set of reforms that are expected to help diversify the economy and expand the non-oil sector. They have launched a major program of support for the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises, including by addressing the constraints related to access to credit. They are also working to improve the national regulatory and governance framework that will enhance the transparency and efficiency of economic transactions, facilitate private sector participation, and improve service delivery to the population. Ongoing reforms in customs administration and the courts are part of its reform agenda.

Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator

Veiga, Helena; Vorsatz, Marc
Fonte: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid Publicador: Universidade Carlos III de Madrid
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /09/2008 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.25%
We study with the help of a laboratory experiment the conditions under which an uninformed manipulator - a robot trader that unconditionally buys several shares of a common value asset in the beginning of a trading period and unwinds this position later on - is able to induce higher asset prices. We find that the average contract price is significantly higher in the presence of the manipulator if, and only if, the asset takes the lowest possible value and insiders have perfect information about the true value of the asset. It is also evidenced that the robot trader makes trading gains; i.e., independently on whether the informed traders have perfect or partial information, it earns always more than the average trader. Finally, not only uninformed subjects suffer from the presence of the robot trader, but also some of the imperfectly informed insiders have lower payoffs once the robot trader is added as a market participant.

Asset Based Unemployment Insurance

RENDAHL, Pontus
Fonte: European University Institute Publicador: European University Institute
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.01%
This paper studies a model of optimal redistribution policies in which agents face unemployment risk and in which savings may provide partial self-insurance. Moral hazard arises as job search effort is unobservable. The optimal redistribution policies provide new insights into how an unemployment insurance scheme should be designed: First, the unemployment insurance policy is recursive in an agent's wealth level, and thus independent of the duration of the unemployment spell. Second, the level of benefit payments is negatively related to the agent's asset position. The reason behind the latter result is twofold; in addition to the first-order insurance effect of wealth, an increase in non-labor income (wealth) amplifies the opportunity cost of employment and thus reduces the agent's incentive to search for a job. During unemployment the agent decumulates assets and the sequence of benefit payments is observationally increasing - a result that stands in sharp contrast with previous studies.

Neither a Borrower Nor a Lender : Does China's Zero Net Foreign Asset Position Make Economic Sense?

Dollar, David; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.5%
China in the past few years has emerged as a net foreign creditor on the international scene with net foreign assets slightly greater than zero percent of wealth. This is surprising given that China is a relatively poor country with a capital-labor ratio about one-fifth the world average and one-tenth the U.S. level. The main questions that the authors address are whether it makes economic sense for China to be a net creditor and how they see China's net foreign asset position evolving over the next 20 years. They calibrate a theoretical model of international capital flows featuring diminishing returns, production risk, and sovereign risk. The calibrations for China yield a predicted net foreign asset position of -17 percent of China's wealth. The authors also estimate nonstructural cross-country regressions of determinants of net foreign assets in which China is always a significant outlier with 5 to 7 percentage points more of net foreign assets relative to wealth than is predicted by its characteristics. China's extensive capital controls can explain why its current net foreign asset position is far away from what is predicted by open-economy models and cross-country empirics. It seems reasonable to assume that China's international financial integration will increase over time. The authors calibrate and predict different scenarios out to 2025. These scenarios are necessarily speculative...

Malaysia Economic Monitor, November 2009; Repositioning for Growth

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.37%
Malaysia is emerging from one of the worst export slumps in its economic history as manufacturing and exports have started growing again. With East Asia leading the recovery and advanced economies showing progressive improvement, the Malaysian economy is projected to grow at 4.1 percent in 2010, following a contraction of 2.3 percent in 2009. The medium-term outlook remains promising with growth reaching 5.6 and 5.9 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively, though that will depend on sustained global recovery from the crisis. The overriding medium-term challenge is for the Malaysian economy to join the select group of high-income countries. Malaysia has experienced solid growth over the last decades, but has relied on an economic model predominantly based on capital accumulation, although private investment rates never recovered from their 20 percentage point fall after the Asian 1997/98 crisis and are now among the lowest in the region. For Malaysia to climb the next step up the income ladder, it needs to focus on improving the investment climate to raise investment rates and focus on productivity growth. Against this backdrop...

International Financial Reporting Standards : A Practical Guide, Sixth Edition

Van Greuning, Hennie; Scott, Darrel; Terblanche, Simonet
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.44%
An acceptable coherent framework of fundamental accounting principles is essential for preparing financial statements. The major reasons for providing the framework are to: 1) identify the essential concepts underlying the preparation and presentation of financial statements; 2) guide standard setters in developing new accounting standards and reviewing existing standards; 3) assist preparers in preparing financial statements and dealing with topics that are not covered by a specific International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS); 4) assist auditors in forming an opinion as to whether a set of financial statements conforms with IFRS; and 5) assist users in interpreting the financial information contained in a set of financial statements that comply with IFRS. The framework sets guidelines and should not be seen as a constitution; nothing in the framework overrides any specific standard. The objective of financial statements is to provide information about the financial position (statement of financial position)...

Valuation Effects with Transitory and Trend Productivity Shocks

Nguyen, Ha
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.57%
In the past two decades, cross-border portfolio holdings of a large variety of assets have risen sharply. This has created an important role for changes in asset prices of a country's external assets and liabilities (i.e. "valuation effects") in affecting the country's net foreign asset position. Valuation effects are commonly thought as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on the net foreign asset position. These contrasting results arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. The results are consistent with the pattern of external imbalances between the United States and other G.7 countries since the 1990s.

Long-Term Fiscal Risks and Sustainability in an Oil-Rich Country : The Case of Russia

Bogetic, Zeljko; Smits, Karlis; Budina, Nina; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.01%
Russia entered the global crisis with strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in 2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5 percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability. Following a period of adjustment...

Upgrading the Investment Policy Framework of Public Pension Funds

Vittas, Dimitri; Impavido, Gregorio; O'Connor, Ronan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.3%
Public pension funds have the potential to benefit from low operating costs because they enjoy economies of scale and avoid large marketing costs. But this important advantage has in most countries been dissipated by poor investment performance. The latter has been attributed to a weak governance structure, lack of independence from government interference, and a low level of transparency and public accountability. Recent years have witnessed the creation of new public pension funds in several countries, and the modernization of existing ones in others, with special emphasis placed on upgrading their investment policy framework and strengthening their governance structure. This paper focuses on the experience of four new public pension funds that have been created in Norway, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. The paper discusses the safeguards that have been introduced to ensure their independence and their insulation from political pressures. It also reviews their performance and their evolving investment strategies. All four funds started with the romantic idea of operating as 'managers of managers' and focusing on external passive management but their strategies have progressively evolved to embrace internal active management and significant investments in alternative asset classes. The paper draws lessons for other countries that wish to modernize their public pension funds.

What Makes a Currency Procyclical? An Empirical Investigation

Cordella, Tito; Gupta, Poonam
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.01%
This paper looks at the correlation between the cyclical components of gross domestic product and the exchange rate and classifies countries' currencies as procyclical if they appreciate in good times, countercyclical if they appreciate in bad times, and acyclical otherwise. With this classification, the paper shows that: (i) the countries that are commodity exporters and experience procyclical capital flows tend to have procyclical currencies; (ii) countries with procyclical currencies tend to restrict their capital accounts, perhaps as an attempt to reduce the degree of procyclicality; (iii) countries with procyclical currencies pursue procyclical monetary policy; (iv) however, in the last decade, there is a disconnect between the cyclicality of currency and monetary policy; and (v) the disconnect may reflect a decline in the fear of floating, which can be partially attributed to an improvement in countries' net foreign asset positions.

Essays in open economy macroeconomics with borrowing frictions

Koumtingue, Nelnan F.
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Thèse ou Mémoire numérique / Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.34%
Cette thèse comporte trois essais en macroéconomie en économie ouverte et commerce international. Je considère tour à tour les questions suivantes: sous quelles conditions est-il optimal pour un pays de former une union économique? (essai 1); l'augmentation de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays est-elle compatible avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement? (essai 2); le risque de perte de marché à l'exportation du fait de l'existence des zones de commerce préférentiel joue t-il un rôle dans la décision des pays exclus de négocier des accords commerciaux à leur tour? (essai 3). Le premier essai examine les conditions d'optimalité d'une union économique. Il s'intéresse à une motivation particulière: le partage du risque lié aux fluctuations du revenu. Dans la situation initiale, les pays ont très peu d'opportunités pour partager le risque à cause des frictions: les marchés financiers internationaux sont incomplets et il n'y pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. Dans ce contexte, une union économique apparait comme un arrangement qui pallie à ces frictions entre les pays membres seulement. Cependant, l'union dans son ensemble continue de faire face à ces frictions lorsqu'elle échange avec le reste du monde. L'arbitrage clé dans le modèle est le suivant. D'un coté...

Metodologias em uso no Brasil para a determinação do custo de capital próprio para avaliação de ativos por fluxo de caixa descontado; Brazilian market's methods for equity cost of capital estimation in DCF asset valuation

Garran, Felipe Turbuk
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/12/2006 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.17%
Este trabalho descreve as práticas usuais dos avaliadores de ativos do mercado brasileiro ao estimar o valor do custo de capital próprio na composição da taxa de desconto dos fluxos de caixa a ser empregada no método do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado. O estudo consiste de duas etapas principais. Na primeira foi feito um delineamento descritivo, explicitando-se quais são os métodos utilizados na estimação do custo de capital próprio, e como são obtidos os parâmetros que alimentam esses métodos. Na segunda fase do trabalho, foram realizados testes de hipótese de relações entre variáveis pertinentes no processo de estimação da taxa de desconto do capital próprio, buscando entender as relações de causa e efeito dos fenômenos presentes no processo. Para que os objetivos desejados fossem alcançados nas fases citadas, foi realizado um levantamento de dados primários, no qual se obteve uma amostra de 93 avaliações realizadas entre 2002 e 2006, tendo sido a sua maioria, aproximadamente 70%, realizadas em 2006. Em seguida foi feito um tratamento estatístico dos dados levantados, utilizando-se o aplicativo SPSS versão 13.0, com o propósito de agrupar e quantificar os resultados obtidos e de estabelecer relações pertinentes entre as variáveis envolvidas no processo de estimação do custo do capital próprio. Ao final...

Downside risk in stock and currency markets

Dobrynskaya, Victoria
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /09/2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
26.36%
This thesis consists of an introductory chapter, three main chapters, and a concluding chapter. In Chapter 2, which was nominated for an EFMA 2014 Best Paper Award, I provide a novel risk-based explanation for the profitability of global momentum strategies. I show that the performance of past winners and losers is asymmetric in states of the global market upturns and downturns. Winners have higher downside market betas and lower upside market betas than losers, and hence their risks are more asymmetric. The winner-minus-loser (WML) momentum portfolios are exposed to the downside market risk, but serve as a hedge against the upside market risk. The high returns of the WML portfolios compensate investors for their high risk asymmetry. After controlling for this risk asymmetry, the momentum portfolios do not yield significant abnormal returns, and the momentum factor becomes insignificant in the cross-section. The two-beta CAPM with downside risk explains the cross-section of returns to global momentum portfolios well. In the third chapter, published in the Review of Finance and the winner of EFMA 2013 John Doukas Best Paper Award, I propose a new factor – the global downside market factor – to explain high returns to carry trades. I show that carry trades have high downside market risk...