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Asset Bubbles and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations

Chauvin, Kyle; Laibson, David I.; Mollerstrom, Johanna Britta
Fonte: Wiley Publicador: Wiley
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
Lucas (1987, 2003) estimates that the cost of economic fluctuations is low; a social planner would pay no more than 0.1% of (permanent) consumption to eliminate all future business cycle fluctuations. The current paper extends Lucas’ calculations by studying the costs of fluctuations arising from asset bubbles. We estimate two classes of costs: consumption volatility due to asset bubbles in a representative agent economy and consumption volatility that arises because households have heterogeneous exposure to the bubble assets. We show that the magnitude of welfare costs is primarily driven by the existence of heterogeneity. Our benchmark calibration implies that the asset bubbles of the last decade generated a social welfare cost equal to a permanent 3% reduction in the level of national consumption. If assets are held proportionately across the population, these welfare costs fall by an order of magnitude. Our calculations are sensitive to the details of the calibration, including the degree of balance sheet and trading heterogeneity, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and the magnitude of the asset bubble. Our preferred specifications generate welfare costs ranging from 1% to 10% of (permanent) national consumption.; Economics

11.432J / 15.427J Real Estate Finance & Investments II: Macro-Level Analysis & Advanced Topics, Spring 2003; Real Estate Finance & Investments II: Macro-Level Analysis & Advanced Topics

Geltner, David, 1951-; Mcgrath, William Tod
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EN-US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
The evolving organization and operation of real estate capital markets. Sources of real estate capital. Primary and secondary mortgage markets. The investment behavior of real estate assets. The development of REITs and securitized debt markets. Advanced pricing techniques for complex real estate securities. From the course home page: Course Description This course presents some of the major concepts, principles, analytical methods and tools useful for making investment and finance decisions regarding commercial real estate assets. As the second in a two-course sequence, this course focuses on more advanced topics and the "macro" level, which pertains to decisions about collections of many individual real estate assets, that is, portfolio or firm level decisions and investment management considerations. (More fundamental "micro" level analysis, pertaining to individual properties and deals, is covered in 11.431 taught in the fall semester). This course also introduces and surveys the major public capital market real estate vehicles, REITs and MBS. Other topics treated include a selection among such subjects as real options, land valuation, development project financial analysis, corporate real estate, capital structure, portfolio strategy...

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

Cavalcanti, Joyce Mariella Medeiros
Fonte: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BR; UFRN; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração; Políticas e Gestão Públicas; Gestão Organizacional Publicador: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BR; UFRN; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Administração; Políticas e Gestão Públicas; Gestão Organizacional
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: application/pdf
POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.31%
This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components...

Macroprudential Stress Testing of Credit Risk : A Practical Approach for Policy Makers

Buncic, Daniel; Melecky, Martin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.

Deconstructing Herding : Evidence from Pension Fund Investment Behavior

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.44%
Pension funds have been expected to invest in a wide range of securities and provide liquidity to domestic capital markets since they are the most sophisticated investors, with plenty of resources to gather private information and manage portfolios professionally. However, by analyzing unique, monthly asset-level data from the pioneer case of Chile, this paper shows that pension funds tend to herd. This is consistent with pension funds copying each other in their investment strategies as a way to extract information, boost returns, and reduce risk. The authors compute measures of herding across asset classes (equities, government bonds, and private sector bonds) and at different pension fund industry levels. The results show that pension funds herd more in assets for which they have less market information and when risk increases. Moreover, herding is more prevalent across funds that narrowly compete with each other, that is, when comparing funds of the same type across pension fund administrators. There is much less herding within pension fund administrators and across pension fund administrators as a whole. This herding pattern is consistent with incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks...

The Long and the Short of Emerging Market Debt

Opazo, Luis; Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.33%
Emerging economies have tried to promote long-term debt because it reduces maturity mismatches and the probability of crises. This paper uses unique evidence from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent there is domestic demand for long-term instruments. The authors analyze monthly asset-level portfolios of Chilean institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies) and compare their maturity structure to that of US bond mutual funds. Despite being thought to invest long term, Chilean asset-management institutions (mutual and pension funds) hold large amounts of short-term assets relative to US mutual funds and Chilean insurance companies. Short-termism is not driven by lack of instrument availability or tactical behavior. Instead, it seems to be explained by the desire to minimize inflation risk and, more importantly, by manager incentives that tilt demand toward short-term instruments. Extending the maturity of emerging market debt may require reducing risk and reshaping investor incentives.

Pension Funds and Capital Market Development : How Much Bang for the Buck?

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.49%
This paper studies the relation between institutional investors and capital market development by analyzing unique data on monthly asset-level portfolio allocations of Chilean pension funds between 1995 and 2005. The results depict pension funds as large and important institutional investors that tend to hold a large amount of bank deposits, government paper, and short-term assets; buy and hold assets in their portfolios without actively trading them; hold similar portfolios at the asset-class level; simultaneously buy and sell similar assets; and follow momentum strategies when trading. Although pension funds may have contributed to the development of certain primary markets, these patterns do not seem fully consistent with the initial expectations that pension funds would be a dynamic force driving the overall development of capital markets. The results do not appear to be explained by regulatory restrictions. Instead, asset illiquidity and manger incentives might be behind the patterns illustrated in this paper.

Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.33%
In March 1999, Poland implemented a systemic pension reform that involved the introduction of a multi-pillar pension system to replace the defined benefit (DB), pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system that had been operating since 1949. This technical note on the pension sector was elaborated as part of the Poland Financial Sector Assessment Program, or FSAP update that took place in April-May 2006. The note assesses the structure and performance of the second pillar, as well as its regulatory and supervisory framework. The note is structured as follows. Section two provides an overview of the whole pension system after the 1999 reform, including coverage and fiscal policy in the transition to the new system. Section three analyses the structure and performance of the second pillar, including asset growth, portfolio composition, investment returns, and fees. Section four examines the regulatory and supervisory framework for the second pillar. Section five analyzes briefly the status of capital market development and the main obstacles to the further development of financial instruments suitable to pension funds. Finally...

Institutional Investors and Long-Term Investment : Evidence from Chile

Opazo, Luis; Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.32%
Developing countries are trying to develop long-term financial markets and institutional investors are expected to play a key role. This paper uses unique evidence on the universe of institutional investors from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies hold and bid for long-term instruments, and which factors affect their choices. The paper uses monthly asset-level portfolios to show that, despite the expectations, mutual and pension funds invest mostly in short-term assets relative to insurance companies. The significant difference across maturity structures is not driven by the supply side of debt or tactical behavior. Instead, it seems to be explained by manager incentives (related to short-run monitoring and the liability structure) that, combined with risk factors, tilt portfolios toward short-term instruments, even when long-term investing yields higher returns. Thus, the expansion of large institutional investors does not necessarily imply longer-term markets.

Strategic Interactions and Portfolio Choice in Money Management : Evidence from Colombian Pension Funds

Pedraza Morales, Alvaro
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
This paper studies the portfolio choice of strategic fund managers in the presence of a peer-based underperformance penalty. Evidence is taken from the Colombian pension fund management industry, where six asset managers are in charge of portfolio allocation for the mandatory contributions of the working population. These managers are subject to a peer-based underperformance penalty, known as the Minimum Return Guarantee. The trading behavior by the managers is studied before and after a change in the strictness of the guarantee in June 2007. The evidence suggests that a tighter minimum return guarantee results in more trading in the direction of peers, a behavior that is more pronounced for underperforming managers. These managers rebalance their portfolios by buying securities in which they are underexposed relative to their peers, as opposed to selling assets in which they are overexposed. Overall, the results suggest that incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks play an important role in the portfolio allocation of these funds.

Asset Price Effects of Peer Benchmarking

Acharya, Sushant; Pedraza, Alvaro
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.33%
This paper estimates the effects of peer benchmarking by institutional investors on asset prices. To identify trades purely due to peer benchmarking as separate from those based on fundamentals or private information, the paper exploits a natural experiment involving a change in a government imposed underperformance penalty applicable to Colombian pension funds. This change in regulation is orthogonal to stock fundamentals and only affects incentives to track peer portfolios allowing the authors to identify the component of demand due to peer benchmarking. The authors find that peer effects among pension fund managers generate excess in stock return volatility, with stocks exhibiting short-term abnormal returns followed by returns reversal in the subsequent quarter. Additionally, peer benchmarking produces an excess in comovement across stock returns beyond the correlation implied by fundamentals.

Strategic asset allocation under a fractional hidden markov model

Elliott, R.; Siu, T.
Fonte: Kluwer Academic Publishers Publicador: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2014 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
Strategic asset allocation is discussed in a discrete-time economy, where the rates of return from asset classes are explained in terms of some observable and hidden factors. We extend the existing models by incorporating long-term memory in the rates of return and observable economic factors, which have been documented in the empirical literature. Hidden factors are described by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain noisily observed in a fractional Gaussian process. The strategic asset allocation problem is discussed in a mean-variance utility framework. Filtering and parameter estimation are also considered in the hybrid model.; Robert J. Elliott, Tak Kuen Siu

Comment on ‘It takes more than a bubble to become Japan’

de Brouwer, Gordon
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 226000 bytes; 356 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
The focus on Japan in this conference serves two purposes. The first is to highlight the cost of bubbles and examine the place for policy action to limit the worst of excesses in asset price bubbles. This is obviously important to the debate now occurring in Australia. The second purpose is to focus on the problems of a sustained collapse in asset prices and how to deal with them. Japan matters to the global economy and the sooner it gets its economic act together the better for us all. Adam’s paper serves both these purposes. But discussants are not invited just to say how great a paper is. They are there for debate and testing ideas. To this end, I will revisit the question of the lessons of Japan’s experience for other countries, and focus especially on the place of targeted interventions in asset markets. Before I get to this, I would like to look at two structural issues in Japan that may be useful in addressing the lessons from Japan’s experience. The first issue is the interplay and connections between the prices of various asset classes. If asset market spillovers exist, policies specifically directed to one asset class may have unintended spill-over effects to other asset classes. The second issue is the degree to which asset prices matter to economic activity. If asset prices are particularly important to private decision makers...

Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets : An Overview

Kaminsky, Graciela L.; Lyons, Richard K.; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.3%
International mutual funds are key contributors to the globalization of financial markets and one of the main sources of capital flows to emerging economies. Despite their importance in emerging markets, little is known about their investment allocation and strategies. This article provides an overview of mutual fund activity in emerging markets. It describes their size, asset allocation, and country allocation and then focuses on their behavior during crises in emerging markets in the 1990s. It analyzes data at both the fund-manager and fund-investor levels. Due to large redemptions and injections, funds' flows are not stable. Withdrawals from emerging markets during recent crises were large, which is consistent with the evidence on financial contagion.

Egyptian National Postal Organization : Review of Asset Management Operations

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Financial Accountability Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.33%
This report presents the missions observations and recommendations. The mission has not been able to review the investment manual and current investment procedures as the relevant documents have not been yet forwarded by Egyptian National Postal Organization (ENPO) as requested. ENPO was established in 1865 and since its creation it has always had a clear mandate of public service that remains dominant until today despite the growing competitive pressures that the organization is facing in most of its markets. ENPO's activities center around two major categories: postal and other services, and financial services. Postal services include letters (regular and express mails) and parcels. Other services are public services, such as bills payments (telecom, car insurance, and taxes) and government services, including pension payment and government money orders. ENPO currently holds 18 million savings accounts, against 8 million for the rest of the banking sector, making it the first financial institution in the country in terms of number of accounts. In terms of deposits however...

Upgrading the Investment Policy Framework of Public Pension Funds

Vittas, Dimitri; Impavido, Gregorio; O'Connor, Ronan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.44%
Public pension funds have the potential to benefit from low operating costs because they enjoy economies of scale and avoid large marketing costs. But this important advantage has in most countries been dissipated by poor investment performance. The latter has been attributed to a weak governance structure, lack of independence from government interference, and a low level of transparency and public accountability. Recent years have witnessed the creation of new public pension funds in several countries, and the modernization of existing ones in others, with special emphasis placed on upgrading their investment policy framework and strengthening their governance structure. This paper focuses on the experience of four new public pension funds that have been created in Norway, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. The paper discusses the safeguards that have been introduced to ensure their independence and their insulation from political pressures. It also reviews their performance and their evolving investment strategies. All four funds started with the romantic idea of operating as 'managers of managers' and focusing on external passive management but their strategies have progressively evolved to embrace internal active management and significant investments in alternative asset classes. The paper draws lessons for other countries that wish to modernize their public pension funds.

Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar

Rudolph, Heinz; Rocha, Roberto
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.34%
This paper provides an assessment of the Polish funded pension system and the quality of the regulatory framework for the accumulation phase. There are two elements that distinguish the Polish pension fund portfolios from other reforming countries': the relatively high component of domestic equity, and the negligible component on international securities. Although this asset allocation has provided relatively high real rates of return in the past, it may not be the case in the future, as further portfolio diversification to other instruments will become necessary to ensure sustainable rates of return. The paper provides a number of recommendations to expand the opportunities of investments to pension funds. The paper finds that pension fund management companies have been able to exploit scale economies in certain areas of the business, such as collection of revenues, and proposes to study mechanisms to enhance them even more by centralizing also the account management system, which may also help to increase portfolio efficiency and competition. The paper suggests that...

Multiple asset class investing : equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants; Equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants

Li, Nan, 1972-; Price, Steven McKay
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 68 leaves; 338455 bytes; 338262 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.52%
The major objective of this study is to test equilibrium asset pricing models with respect to how well they price risk across multiple asset classes; including the four quadrants of real estate. While using the Geltner (1999) paper as a springboard for our approach, this thesis both updates Professor Geltner's earlier work and extends its scope through the testing of additional models and asset classes. Using historical data to derive beta estimates, we empirically test several variations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). These variations include the traditional, single-beta, Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, as well as the multi-beta, Fama-French CAPM. For the single-factor formula we explore the use of two different market portfolio proxies, the S&P 500 Index and the National Wealth Portfolio (NWP). We also apply the single-factor formula to a non-wealth based, consumption oriented approach. Test results show the NWP based CAPM to be the strongest model, being both robust and statistically significant in its pricing of asset volatility. When using the traditional S&P 500 index as the market proxy, the basic CAPM performs surprisingly well, though not as well as the NWP version. The multi-beta Fama-French model explains a large amount of price variation...

Heat Kernel Framework for Asset Pricing in Finite Time

Macrina, Andrea
Fonte: Universidade Cornell Publicador: Universidade Cornell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a general, flexible, and mathematically tractable asset pricing framework in finite time. The pricing kernel, giving rise to the price system in an incomplete market, is modelled by weighted heat kernels which are driven by multivariate Markov processes and which provide enough degrees of freedom in order to calibrate to relevant data, e.g. to the term structure of bond prices. It is shown how, for a class of models, the prices of bonds, caplets, and swaptions can be computed in closed form. The dynamical equations for the price processes are derived, and explicit formulae are obtained for the short rate of interest, the risk premium, and for the stochastic volatility of prices. Several of the closed-form asset price models presented in this paper are driven by combinations of Markovian jump processes with different probability laws. Such models provide a rich basis for consistent applications in several sectors of a financial market including equity, fixed-income, commodities, and insurance. The flexible, multidimensional and multivariate structure, on which the asset price models are constructed, lends itself well to the transparent modelling of dependence across asset classes. As an illustration...

Essays on Household Portfolio Choice

Addoum, Jawad M.
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação
Publicado em //2012
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%

This dissertation consists of two essays on household portfolio choice. The first essay is entitled 'Household Portfolio Choice and Retirement'. In this first essay, I empirically examine the portfolio decisions of households as they transition into retirement. I document a novel stylized fact: holding household characteristics constant, singles maintain a relatively constant share of risky assets in their financial portfolios as they transition into retirement. On the other hand, couples decrease their share of risky assets significantly. I analyze this difference in behavior, and show that it is not driven by retirement-related background risks for couples relative to singles. Instead, I show that the heterogeneity within couples can be explained by the within-couple difference in spouses' individual risk aversion levels, and that the results are consistent with a net increase in couples' effective household-level risk aversion after retirement. Further, exploiting heterogeneity in couples' relative retirement dates, I show that husbands' and wives' respective retirement events are associated with very different (opposite-signed) persistent effects on the risky share of couples' portfolios. Moreover, I show that the relative magnitude of these persistent effects is consistent with the importance of each spouse's labor income within the household before retirement. Overall...