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Expectations, shocks, and asset returns

Sousa, Ricardo M.
Fonte: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas Publicador: Universidade do Minho. Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
Publicado em //2007 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
I use the consumer’s budget constraint to derive a relationship between stock market returns, the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income, cay, and three major sources of risk: future changes in the housing consumption share, cr, future labour income growth, lr, and future consumption growth, lrc. Using a VAR, I compute measures of expected and unexpected long-run changes of the major determinants of asset returns and find that: (i) cay, cday, expected lr, cr, lrc and expected long-run changes in ex-ante real returns, lrret, strongly forecast future asset returns; (ii) unexpected lrc and unexpected lrret contain some predictive power for asset returns; (iii) unexpected lr and unexpected cr do not predict future asset returns. One can, therefore, use the intertemporal budget constraint and the forecasting properties of an informative VAR to generate the predictability of many economically motivated variables developed in the literature on asset pricing. The framework presented is sufficiently flexible to accommodate the implications of a wide class of optimal models of consumer behaviour without imposing a functional form on preferences.; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - SFRH/BD/12985/2003.

Parametric portfolio policies: An application for a global tactical asset allocation model

Barahona, Ricardo Manuel de Sousa Machado Calvente de
Fonte: NSBE - UNL Publicador: NSBE - UNL
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em /06/2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.42%
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics; Despite the extensive literature on the predictability of asset class returns and its economic significance, it is common for many asset managers to implement portfolio models built around active management within an asset class, while generally having passive allocations to each asset class based on the risk profile of the investor. We can exploit some of the predictability by using information on economic factors and momentum that explain broad asset class moves through a parametric portfolio approach introduced by Brandt, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2009). I obtain significant improvements over fixed allocations and Markowitz optimal portfolios, even when applying significant restrictions.

Emerging Economies in the 2000s : Real Decoupling and Financial Recoupling

Yeyati, Eduardo Levy; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.29%
The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized sell-off during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for emerging markets, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies does not yield conclusive results, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds shows that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.

Deconstructing Herding : Evidence from Pension Fund Investment Behavior

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
Pension funds have been expected to invest in a wide range of securities and provide liquidity to domestic capital markets since they are the most sophisticated investors, with plenty of resources to gather private information and manage portfolios professionally. However, by analyzing unique, monthly asset-level data from the pioneer case of Chile, this paper shows that pension funds tend to herd. This is consistent with pension funds copying each other in their investment strategies as a way to extract information, boost returns, and reduce risk. The authors compute measures of herding across asset classes (equities, government bonds, and private sector bonds) and at different pension fund industry levels. The results show that pension funds herd more in assets for which they have less market information and when risk increases. Moreover, herding is more prevalent across funds that narrowly compete with each other, that is, when comparing funds of the same type across pension fund administrators. There is much less herding within pension fund administrators and across pension fund administrators as a whole. This herding pattern is consistent with incentives for managers to be close to industry benchmarks...

The Long and the Short of Emerging Market Debt

Opazo, Luis; Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.27%
Emerging economies have tried to promote long-term debt because it reduces maturity mismatches and the probability of crises. This paper uses unique evidence from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent there is domestic demand for long-term instruments. The authors analyze monthly asset-level portfolios of Chilean institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies) and compare their maturity structure to that of US bond mutual funds. Despite being thought to invest long term, Chilean asset-management institutions (mutual and pension funds) hold large amounts of short-term assets relative to US mutual funds and Chilean insurance companies. Short-termism is not driven by lack of instrument availability or tactical behavior. Instead, it seems to be explained by the desire to minimize inflation risk and, more importantly, by manager incentives that tilt demand toward short-term instruments. Extending the maturity of emerging market debt may require reducing risk and reshaping investor incentives.

Pension Funds and Capital Market Development : How Much Bang for the Buck?

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
This paper studies the relation between institutional investors and capital market development by analyzing unique data on monthly asset-level portfolio allocations of Chilean pension funds between 1995 and 2005. The results depict pension funds as large and important institutional investors that tend to hold a large amount of bank deposits, government paper, and short-term assets; buy and hold assets in their portfolios without actively trading them; hold similar portfolios at the asset-class level; simultaneously buy and sell similar assets; and follow momentum strategies when trading. Although pension funds may have contributed to the development of certain primary markets, these patterns do not seem fully consistent with the initial expectations that pension funds would be a dynamic force driving the overall development of capital markets. The results do not appear to be explained by regulatory restrictions. Instead, asset illiquidity and manger incentives might be behind the patterns illustrated in this paper.

Assessing Asset Indices

Filmer, Deon; Scott, Kinnon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.24%
This paper compares how results using various methods to construct asset indices match results using per capita expenditures. The analysis shows that inferences about inequalities in education, health care use, fertility, child mortality, as well as labor market outcomes are quite robust to the specific economic status measure used. The measures-most significantly per capita expenditures versus the class of asset indices-do not, however, yield identical household rankings. Two factors stand out in predicting the degree of congruence in rankings between per capita expenditures and an asset index. First is the extent to which per capita expenditures can be explained by observed household and community characteristics. In settings with small transitory shocks to expenditure, or with little measurement error in expenditure, the rankings yielded by the alternative approaches are most similar. Second is the extent to which expenditures are dominated by individually consumed goods such as food. Asset indices are typically derived from indicators of goods which are effectively public at the household level...

Financial Sector Assessment Program Update : Republic of Poland - Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar

World Bank; International Monetary Fund
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.27%
In March 1999, Poland implemented a systemic pension reform that involved the introduction of a multi-pillar pension system to replace the defined benefit (DB), pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system that had been operating since 1949. This technical note on the pension sector was elaborated as part of the Poland Financial Sector Assessment Program, or FSAP update that took place in April-May 2006. The note assesses the structure and performance of the second pillar, as well as its regulatory and supervisory framework. The note is structured as follows. Section two provides an overview of the whole pension system after the 1999 reform, including coverage and fiscal policy in the transition to the new system. Section three analyses the structure and performance of the second pillar, including asset growth, portfolio composition, investment returns, and fees. Section four examines the regulatory and supervisory framework for the second pillar. Section five analyzes briefly the status of capital market development and the main obstacles to the further development of financial instruments suitable to pension funds. Finally...

International Asset Allocations and Capital Flows : The Benchmark Effect

Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Williams, Tomas
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
This paper studies channels through which well-known benchmark indexes impact asset allocations and capital flows across countries. The study uses unique monthly micro-level data of benchmark compositions and mutual fund investments during 1996-2012. Benchmarks have important effects on equity and bond mutual fund portfolios across funds with different degrees of activism. Benchmarks explain, on average, around 70 percent of country allocations and have significant impact even on active funds. Benchmark effects are important after controlling for industry, macroeconomic, and country-specific, time-varying effects. Reverse causality does not drive the results. Exogenous, pre-announced changes in benchmarks result in movements in asset allocations mostly when these changes are implemented (not when announced). By impacting country allocations, benchmarks affect capital flows across countries through direct and indirect channels, including contagion. They explain apparently counterintuitive movements in capital flows...

Institutional Investors and Long-Term Investment : Evidence from Chile

Opazo, Luis; Raddatz, Claudio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
Developing countries are trying to develop long-term financial markets and institutional investors are expected to play a key role. This paper uses unique evidence on the universe of institutional investors from the leading case of Chile to study to what extent mutual funds, pension funds, and insurance companies hold and bid for long-term instruments, and which factors affect their choices. The paper uses monthly asset-level portfolios to show that, despite the expectations, mutual and pension funds invest mostly in short-term assets relative to insurance companies. The significant difference across maturity structures is not driven by the supply side of debt or tactical behavior. Instead, it seems to be explained by manager incentives (related to short-run monitoring and the liability structure) that, combined with risk factors, tilt portfolios toward short-term instruments, even when long-term investing yields higher returns. Thus, the expansion of large institutional investors does not necessarily imply longer-term markets.

A class of non-expected utility risk measures and implications for asset allocations

van der Hoek, John; Sherris, Michael
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2001 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
This paper discusses a class of risk measures developed from a risk measure recently proposed for insurance pricing. This paper reviews the distortion function approach developed in the actuarial literature for insurance risk. The proportional hazards transform is a particular case. The relationship between this approach to risk and other approaches including the dual theory of choice under risk is discussed. A new class of risk measures with suitable properties for asset allocation based on the distortion function approach to insurance risk is developed. This measure treats upside and downside risk differently. Properties of special cases of the risk measure and links to conventional portfolio selection risk measures are discussed.; http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505554/description#description; John van der Hoek and Michael Sherris; Copyright © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comment on ‘It takes more than a bubble to become Japan’

de Brouwer, Gordon
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 226000 bytes; 356 bytes; application/pdf; application/octet-stream
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.28%
The focus on Japan in this conference serves two purposes. The first is to highlight the cost of bubbles and examine the place for policy action to limit the worst of excesses in asset price bubbles. This is obviously important to the debate now occurring in Australia. The second purpose is to focus on the problems of a sustained collapse in asset prices and how to deal with them. Japan matters to the global economy and the sooner it gets its economic act together the better for us all. Adam’s paper serves both these purposes. But discussants are not invited just to say how great a paper is. They are there for debate and testing ideas. To this end, I will revisit the question of the lessons of Japan’s experience for other countries, and focus especially on the place of targeted interventions in asset markets. Before I get to this, I would like to look at two structural issues in Japan that may be useful in addressing the lessons from Japan’s experience. The first issue is the interplay and connections between the prices of various asset classes. If asset market spillovers exist, policies specifically directed to one asset class may have unintended spill-over effects to other asset classes. The second issue is the degree to which asset prices matter to economic activity. If asset prices are particularly important to private decision makers...

Housing and Urbanization in Africa : Unleashing a Formal Market Process

Collier, Paul; Venables, Anthony J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
The accumulation of decent housing matters both because of the difference it makes to living standards and because of its centrality to economic development. The consequences for living standards are far-reaching. In addition to directly conferring utility, decent housing improves health and enables children to do homework. It frees up women's time and enables them to participate in the labor market. More subtly, a home and its environs affect identity and self-respect. Commentary on the emergence of an African middle class has become common, but it is being defined in terms of discretionary spending and potential for consumer markets. A politically more salient definition of a middle class will be in terms of home ownership and the consequent stake in economic stability. This paper examines why such a process has not happened in Africa. The hypothesis is that the peculiarity of housing exposes it to multiple points of vulnerability not found together either in private consumer goods or in other capital goods. Each point of vulnerability can be addressed by appropriate government policies...

Promoting Intellectual Property Monetization in Developing Countries : A Review of Issues and Strategies to Support Knowledge-driven Growth

Ghafele, Roya; Gibert, Benjamin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.18%
This paper outlines and evaluates several intellectual property monetization strategies available to patent holders in developing countries that help generate domestic innovation and knowledge-driven growth by promoting more active technology markets. Based on a review of World Intellectual Property Report indicators, the patent ownership gap between a sample of developed and developing countries has narrowed gradually for more technologically-sophisticated developing countries. However, based on complementary International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments data, the patent commercialization divide (as indicated by licensing income) has been widening. The paper argues that patents, and all forms of intellectual property, are an enabling mechanism rather than a defensive right: an intangible asset class that can be proactively nurtured and managed for greater value extraction to stimulate knowledge-based entrepreneurship and growth in developing countries. The paper presents multiple case studies of alternative monetization strategies to address the commercialization divide. These strategies range from private...

Egyptian National Postal Organization : Review of Asset Management Operations

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Financial Accountability Assessment; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.27%
This report presents the missions observations and recommendations. The mission has not been able to review the investment manual and current investment procedures as the relevant documents have not been yet forwarded by Egyptian National Postal Organization (ENPO) as requested. ENPO was established in 1865 and since its creation it has always had a clear mandate of public service that remains dominant until today despite the growing competitive pressures that the organization is facing in most of its markets. ENPO's activities center around two major categories: postal and other services, and financial services. Postal services include letters (regular and express mails) and parcels. Other services are public services, such as bills payments (telecom, car insurance, and taxes) and government services, including pension payment and government money orders. ENPO currently holds 18 million savings accounts, against 8 million for the rest of the banking sector, making it the first financial institution in the country in terms of number of accounts. In terms of deposits however...

Upgrading the Investment Policy Framework of Public Pension Funds

Vittas, Dimitri; Impavido, Gregorio; O'Connor, Ronan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.26%
Public pension funds have the potential to benefit from low operating costs because they enjoy economies of scale and avoid large marketing costs. But this important advantage has in most countries been dissipated by poor investment performance. The latter has been attributed to a weak governance structure, lack of independence from government interference, and a low level of transparency and public accountability. Recent years have witnessed the creation of new public pension funds in several countries, and the modernization of existing ones in others, with special emphasis placed on upgrading their investment policy framework and strengthening their governance structure. This paper focuses on the experience of four new public pension funds that have been created in Norway, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. The paper discusses the safeguards that have been introduced to ensure their independence and their insulation from political pressures. It also reviews their performance and their evolving investment strategies. All four funds started with the romantic idea of operating as 'managers of managers' and focusing on external passive management but their strategies have progressively evolved to embrace internal active management and significant investments in alternative asset classes. The paper draws lessons for other countries that wish to modernize their public pension funds.

Housing and Urbanization in Africa : Unleashing a Formal Market Process

Collier, Paul; Venables, Anthony J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
The accumulation of decent housing matters both because of the difference it makes to living standards and because of its centrality to economic development. The consequences for living standards are far-reaching. In addition to directly conferring utility, decent housing improves health and enables children to do homework. It frees up women's time and enables them to participate in the labor market. More subtly, a home and its environs affect identity and self-respect. Commentary on the emergence of an African middle class has become common, but it is being defined in terms of discretionary spending and potential for consumer markets. A politically more salient definition of a middle class will be in terms of home ownership and the consequent stake in economic stability. This paper examines why such a process has not happened in Africa. Our hypothesis is that the peculiarity of housing exposes it to multiple points of vulnerability not found together either in private consumer goods or in other capital goods. Each point of vulnerability can be addressed by appropriate government policies...

Competition and Performance in the Polish Second Pillar

Rudolph, Heinz; Rocha, Roberto
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.28%
This paper provides an assessment of the Polish funded pension system and the quality of the regulatory framework for the accumulation phase. There are two elements that distinguish the Polish pension fund portfolios from other reforming countries': the relatively high component of domestic equity, and the negligible component on international securities. Although this asset allocation has provided relatively high real rates of return in the past, it may not be the case in the future, as further portfolio diversification to other instruments will become necessary to ensure sustainable rates of return. The paper provides a number of recommendations to expand the opportunities of investments to pension funds. The paper finds that pension fund management companies have been able to exploit scale economies in certain areas of the business, such as collection of revenues, and proposes to study mechanisms to enhance them even more by centralizing also the account management system, which may also help to increase portfolio efficiency and competition. The paper suggests that...

Development Financing during a Crisis : Securitization of Future Receivables

Ketkar, Suhas; Ratha, Dilip
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.34%
Mexico's Telmex undertook the first future-flow securitization transaction in 1987. From then through 1999, the principal credit rating agencies rated more than 200 transactions totaling $47.3 billion. Studying several sources, the authors draw conclusions about the rationale for using this asset class, the size of its unrealized potential, and the main constraints on its growth. Typically the borrowing entity (the originator) sells its future product (receivable) directly or indirectly to an offshore special purpose vehicle (SPV), which issues the debt instrument. Designated international customers make their payments for the exports directly to an offshore collection account managed by a trustee. The collection agent makes principal and interest payments to investors and pays the rest to the originator. This transaction structure allows many investment-grade borrowers in developing countries to pierce the sovereign credit ceiling and get longer-term financing at significantly lower interest costs. The investment-grade rating attracts a wider group of investors. And establishing a credit history for the borrower makes it easier for it to access capital markets later...

Multiple asset class investing : equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants; Equilibrium asset pricing evaluation of real estate risk and return across four quadrants

Li, Nan, 1972-; Price, Steven McKay
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 68 leaves; 338455 bytes; 338262 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
The major objective of this study is to test equilibrium asset pricing models with respect to how well they price risk across multiple asset classes; including the four quadrants of real estate. While using the Geltner (1999) paper as a springboard for our approach, this thesis both updates Professor Geltner's earlier work and extends its scope through the testing of additional models and asset classes. Using historical data to derive beta estimates, we empirically test several variations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). These variations include the traditional, single-beta, Sharpe-Lintner CAPM, as well as the multi-beta, Fama-French CAPM. For the single-factor formula we explore the use of two different market portfolio proxies, the S&P 500 Index and the National Wealth Portfolio (NWP). We also apply the single-factor formula to a non-wealth based, consumption oriented approach. Test results show the NWP based CAPM to be the strongest model, being both robust and statistically significant in its pricing of asset volatility. When using the traditional S&P 500 index as the market proxy, the basic CAPM performs surprisingly well, though not as well as the NWP version. The multi-beta Fama-French model explains a large amount of price variation...