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Saving and Growth in Egypt

Hevia, Constantino; Loayza, Norman
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.06%
This study illustrates the mechanisms linking national saving and economic growth, with the purpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of a saving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptian economy. This is done through a simple theoretical model, calibrated to fit the Egyptian economy, and simulated to explore different potential scenarios. The main conclusion is that if the Egyptian economy does not experience progress in productivity -- stemming from technological innovation, improved public management, and private-sector reforms -- then a high rate of economic growth is not feasible at current rates of national saving and would require a saving effort that is highly unrealistic. For instance, financing a constant 4 percent growth rate of gross domestic product per capita with no improvement in total factor productivity would require a national saving rate of around 50 percent in the first decade and 80 percent in 25 years. However, if productivity rises, sustaining and improving high rates of economic growth becomes viable. Following the previous example...

Delivering on the Promise of Pro-Poor Growth : Insights and Lessons from Country Experiences

Besley, Timothy; Cord, Louise J.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.08%
Delivering on the Promise of Pro-Poor Growth contributes to the debate on how to accelerate poverty reduction by providing insights from eight countries that have been relatively successful in delivering pro-poor growth: Bangladesh, Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Tunisia, Uganda, and Vietnam. It integrates growth analytics with the microanalysis of household data to determine how country policies and conditions interact to reduce poverty and to spread the benefits of growth across different income groups. This title is a useful resource for policy makers, donor agencies, academics, think tanks, and government officials seeking a practical framework to improve country level diagnostics of growth-poverty linkages.

Corruption, the Rusiness Environment, and Small Business Growth in India

Honorati, Maddalena; Mengistae, Taye
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.03%
This paper estimates a dynamic business growth equation on a sample of small-scale manufacturers. The results suggest that excessive labor regulation, power shortages, and problems of access to finance are significant influences on industrial growth in India. The expected annual sales growth rate of an enterprise is lower where labor regulation is greater, power shortages are more severe, and cash flow constraints are stronger. The effects of each of the three factors on business growth seem also to depend on a fourth element, namely, corruption. Specifically, labor regulation affects the growth only of enterprises for which corruption is not a factor in business decisions. By contrast, power shortages seem to be a drag on the growth only of enterprises self-reportedly held back by corruption. Lastly, sales growth is constrained by cash flow only in businesses that are not affected by labor regulation, power shortages, or corruption. The analysis uses corruption as a proxy for the quality of "property rights institutions" and considers labor regulation and small business financing as instances of "contracting institutions." The findings on the interaction between corruption and other aspects of business environment then seems to indicate that the quality of property rights institutions exerts more abiding influence on economic outcomes than the quality of contracting institutions. Moreover...

Fiscal Spending and Economic Performance : Some Stylized Facts

Carrère, Céline; de Melo, Jaime
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66%
This paper complements the cross-country approach by examining the correlates of growth acceleration in per capita gross domestic product around "significant" public expenditure episodes by reorganizing the data around turning points, or events. The authors define a growth event as an increase in average per capita growth of at least 2 percentage points sustained for 5 years. A fiscal event is an increase in the annual growth rate of primary fiscal expenditure of approximately 1 percentage point sustained for 5 years and not accompanied by an aggravation of the fiscal deficit beyond 2 percent of gross domestic product. These definitions of events are applied to a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) for 1972-2005. After controlling for the growth-inducing effects of positive terms-of-trade shocks and of trade liberalization reform, probit estimates indicate that a growth event is more likely to occur in a developing country when surrounded by a fiscal event. Moreover, the probability of occurrence of a growth event in the years following a fiscal event is greater the lower is the associated fiscal deficit...

Did Growth Become Less Pro-Poor in the 1990s?

Lopez, Humberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.03%
The author analyzes the stability of the empirical relationship between growth and changes in inequality over time. He concludes that while during the 1970s and 1980s the growth process was not accompanied by increases in inequality, during the 1990s a positive and significant correlation appears in the data. For this decade, he estimates that a 1 percent growth rate would be associated with an increase in the gini coefficient of between .3 to .5 percent. This positive correlation is hidden when one estimates the model without allowing for changes in the relationship over the different decades. The finding is robust to a number of departures from the basic specification including: (1) the use of alternative specifications to isolate decadal shifts; (2) the use of robust estimation techniques that address the potential influence of outliers; (3) restricting the sample to a balanced panel for the 1980s and 1990s to control for changes in the composition of the sample related to the unbalanced nature of the panel; and (4) considering the possibility of fixed effects in the data. The author also explores the impact of this structural change in the rate of poverty reduction and concludes that it is far from negligible.

Partially Awakened Giants: Uneven Growth in China and India

Chaudhuri, Shubham; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
The paper examines the ways in which recent economic growth has been uneven in China and India and what this has meant for inequality and poverty. Drawing on analyses based on existing household survey data and aggregate data from official sources, the authors show that growth has indeed been uneven-geographically, sectorally, and at the household level-and that this has meant uneven progress against poverty, less poverty reduction than might have been achieved had growth been more balanced, and an increase in income inequality. The paper then examines why growth was uneven and why this should be of concern. The discussion is structured around the idea that there are both "good" and "bad" inequalities-drivers and dimensions of inequality and uneven growth that are good or bad in terms of what they imply for both equity and long-term growth and development. The authors argue that the development paths of both China and India have been influenced by, and have generated, both types of inequalities and that while good inequalities-most notably those that reflect the role of economic incentives-have been critical to the growth experience thus far, there is a risk that bad inequalities-those that prevent individuals from connecting to markets and limit investment and accumulation of human capital and physical capital-may undermine the sustainability of growth in the coming years. The authors argue that policies are needed that preserve the good inequalities-continued incentives for innovation and investment-but reduce the scope for bad ones...

Ghana - Promoting Growth, Reducing Poverty

Alam, Asad
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
76%
The policy reforms since 1983 have reduced the fiscal deficit and inflation, helped improve infrastructure services, and shifted relative prices and incentives towards the tradable sector, in general, and towards exports, in particular. The key element of fiscal consolidation up to 1991 was the growth in government revenues, whose share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose from 6 percent in 1983 to 13 percent in 1986 and to 16 percent in 1991. Higher revenues made it possible to reduce the fiscal deficit and, at the same time, increase public investment in infrastructure which had virtually collapsed prior to 1983. Prudent monetary management also led to inflation falling from 123 percent in 1983 to 40 percent in 1986 and 18 percent in 1991. The resulting improvements in macroeconomic stability made it possible for farms and firms to respond to the shift in production incentives induced by the policy reforms. As a result of these reforms, the economy turned around. Although economic activity witnessed its biggest surge during the early years of the Economic Recovery Program (ERP) (5.3 percent annually during 1983-86)...

Growth Still Is Good for the Poor

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
Incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 118 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are generally small and uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. These findings hold across most regions and time periods and when conditioning on a variety of country-level factors that may matter for growth and inequality changes. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for poverty reduction and illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the relative growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles.

Exporter Dynamics, Firm Size and Growth, and Partial Year Effects

Bernard, Andrew B.; Massari, Renzo; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Taglioni, Daria
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.05%
Two otherwise identical firms that enter the same market in different months, one in January and one in December, will report dramatically different annual sales for the first calendar year of operations. This partial year effect in annual data leads to downward biased observations of the level of activity upon entry and upward biased growth rates between the year of entry and the following year. This paper examines the implications of partial year effects using Peruvian export data. The partial year bias is very large: the average level of first-year exports of new exporters is understated by 65 percent and the average growth rate between the first and second year of exporting is overstated by 112 percentage points. This paper re-examines a number of stylized facts about firm size and growth that have motivated rapidly expanding theoretical and empirical literatures on firm export dynamics. Correcting the partial year effect eliminates unusually high growth rates in the first year of exporting, raises initial export levels...

Growth, Inequality, and Social Welfare : Cross-Country Evidence

Dollar, David; Kleineberg, Tatjana; Kraay, Aart
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
Social welfare functions that assign weights to individuals based on their income levels can be used to document the relative importance of growth and inequality changes for changes in social welfare. In a large panel of industrial and developing countries over the past 40 years, most of the cross-country and over-time variation in changes in social welfare is due to changes in average incomes. In contrast, the changes in inequality observed during this period are on average much smaller than changes in average incomes, are uncorrelated with changes in average incomes, and have contributed relatively little to changes in social welfare.

How rich is China and how fast has the economy grown? Statistical controversies

Wu, Harry W
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 256829 bytes; application/pdf
EN_AU
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.87%
Correctly measuring a country’s national income and its growth is essential to the understanding of various aspects of the country’s economy both at present and in the future. The measurement issue is even more important for economies like China whose size-based economic-political power is always important to the world, but whose statistical system is less transparent and more non-standard because of the strong influence of the Marxian material product system (MPS) developed during the central planning period. Therefore, as the Chinese economy rapidly develops and integrates into the world economy there is a growing interest in a reliable and internationally comparable measure of China’s real income or gross domestic product (GDP) and its growth performance.

The first controversial issue is how should China’s per capita income level be measured on an internationally compatible basis? The debate began in the early 1990s with the question ‘How rich is China?’ raised by Garnaut and Ma (1992) based on their study on the relationship between China’s food consumption and per capita GDP, and the GDP estimate for China by Summers and Heston (1991) based on the expenditure purchasing power parity (PPP) approach. The second controversial issue is how fast has the Chinese economy grown particularly since economic reform began in 1978. While the official estimate of about 10 per cent annual growth rate for the reform period is almost taken for granted...

Kenya Economic Report, June 2013, No. 8 : Time to Shift Gears--Accelerating Growth and Poverty Reduction in the New Kenya

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.88%
The report has three main messages. First, the economy is expected to achieve higher growth targets in 2013 (5.7 percent) and 2014 (6 percent) over what it achieved in 2012 (4.6 percent), as a result of the smooth election process. However, the government will need to make a concerted effort, if it wishes to approach the 10 percent annual growth rate foreseen in Vision 2030. The report's second message emphasizes on the steps that the government needs to take to create an enabling framework for significant private sector-led growth. The Government needs to continue to invest in infrastructure, to increase domestic energy production, to address the other bottlenecks that affect the cost of doing business, and to continue following sound monetary and fiscal policies. Finally, the report's third message focuses on the poverty situation in Kenya, noting progress made since 2005, when an estimated 47 percent of the population lived below the poverty line, to the present, where poverty estimates range between 34 and 42 percent...

Poverty Reduction without Economic Growth? Explaining Brazil's Poverty Dynamics, 1985-2004

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Leite, Phillippe G.; Ravallion, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
Brazil's slow pace of poverty reduction over the last two decades reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Using GDP data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty-year period, this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty-reducing effectiveness of growth-across sectors, across space, and over time. Growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty-reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry. Growth in industry had very different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment. The determinants of poverty reduction changed around 1994: positive growth rates and a greater (absolute) elasticity with respect to agricultural growth contributed to faster poverty reduction. But because there was so little of it, economic growth played a relatively small role in accounting for Brazil's poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004. The taming of hyperinflation (in 1994) and substantial expansions in social security and social assistance transfers...

Brazil - Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rio Gande Do Norte: A State Economic Memorandum

World Bank
Fonte: Washington DC Publicador: Washington DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.95%
Brazil was the fastest growing country in the world between 1930 and 1995, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. By 2000, Brazil's per-capita income stood at R$6,500. While RN's per capita income is slightly above half the national average, it increased from 43 percent of the national average in 1947 to 47 percent in 1998, implying that RN's economy grew faster than that of Brazil for over half a century. This has also been true in recent years. Between 1990-1998, RN's income per capita showed a respectable trend growth rate of 3.0 percent. The close relationship between Brazil's economic growth and RN's economic progress in the last five decades reflects a response to common macroeconomic forces and external environment as well as the enormous influence of national policies and programs on RN's economy. However, the state can also implement policies and programs to stimulate growth and employment. For this purpose, an understanding of trends in state GDP and employment and of the sources of growth is important. RN's economy has undergone a rapid and welcome transformation from one dependent on salt...

Measuring Economic Downside Risk and Severity : Growth at Risk

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.05%
Output collapses, and crises are a fact of life. Severe economic downturns occur periodically, and have grave consequences on the poor. The authors propose a new measurement for economic downside risk, and severity: Growth at risk. Similar to the concept of Value at Risk in finance, Growth at Risk summarizes the expected maximum economic downturn over a target horizon at a given confidence level. After providing a taxonomy of growth risks, the authors construct a panel data, set on Growth at Risk for 84 countries, over the period 1980-98. On average, different regional groups experience very distinct Growth at Risk patterns over time. 1) Non-OECD countries experience a higher downturn risk, while OECD countries' downturn risks for both big, and small recessions are the lowest among all groups. 2) East Asia countries, which had been growing faster, had a high Growth at Risk for big downturns, at around six percent, and it rose dramatically at the end of the 1990s. 3) Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa also maintained high Growth at Risk for both big...

Saving and Growth in Sri Lanka

Hevia, Constantino; Loayza, Norman
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.06%
In the aftermath of its long-standing civil war, Sri Lanka is keen to reap the social and economic benefits of peace. Even in the middle of civil conflict, the country was able to grow at rates that surpassed those of its neighbors and most developing countries. It is argued, then, that the peace dividend may bring about even higher rates of economic growth. Is this possible? And if so, under what conditions? To be sure, Sri Lanka's high growth rate in the past three decades did not come for free. It took an increasing effort of resource mobilization in the country, with a rise in national saving from 15 percent of gross domestic product in the mid-1970s to 25 percent in 2010. This rise in national saving was fundamentally fueled and sustained by the private sector. In the future, however, the private saving rate is likely to decline because the demographic transition experienced in the country is bound to produce higher old dependency rates in the next two decades. However, the public sector has much room for reducing its deficits and increasing public investment. Similarly...

The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development; Informe sobre el crecimiento : estrategias para el crecimiento sostenido y el desarrollo incluyente

Commission on Growth and Development
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.95%
The report has four main parts. In the first, the commission reviews the 13 economies that have sustained, high growth in the postwar period. Their growth models had some common flavors: the strategic integration with the world economy; the mobility of resources, particularly labor; the high savings and investment rates; and a capable government committed to growth. The report goes on to describe the cast of mind and techniques of policy making that leaders will need if they are to emulate such a growth model. It concludes that their policy making will need to be patient, pragmatic, and experimental. In the second part, the commission lays out the ingredients a growth strategy might include. These range from public investment and exchange rate policies to land sales and redistribution. A list of ingredients is not enough to make a dish, of course, as Bob Solow, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and a member of the Commission, points out. The commission, however, refrains from offering policy makers a recipe...

China's Growth and Poverty Reduction : Trends between 1990 and 1999

Chen, Shaohua; Wang, Yan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.04%
The authors investigate recent rends in poverty, and inequality in China, decomposing data on poverty reduction to see who has benefited most from China's economic growth. They find that, by several measures, poverty declined significantly in the 1990s, across a wide range of poverty lines, except that a slight slowdown in China's export, and economic growth in 1997-99 might have hurt the poor. There was a slight increase in the poverty headcount between 1997 and 1999, using lower poverty lines, and a worsening of the poverty gap index. Average per capita consumption declined for farmers, especially those living in poor regions such as Gans, Heilongjiang, Sanxi, and Xinjiang. It is unclear whether this decline was attributable to Asia's economic crisis. Economic growth contributed significantly to poverty reduction, but rising inequality worsened both rural, and urban income distributions - except during the Asian crisis, when the distribution remained relatively stable. The poor benefited far less than the rich from economic growth. Income growth reached...

Sources of China's Economic Growth, 1952-99 : Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation

Wang, Yan; Yao, Yudong
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.06%
China's performance in economic growth, and poverty reduction has been remarkable. There is an ongoing debate about whether this growth is mainly driven by productivity, or factor accumulation. But few past studies have incorporated information on China's human capital stock, and thus contained an omission bias. The authors construct a measure of China's human capital stock from 1952 to 1999, and, using a simple growth accounting exercise, incorporate it in their analysis of the sources of growth, during the pre-reform (1952-77), and the reform period (1978-99). They find that the accumulation of human capital in China (as measured by the average years of schooling for the population aged 15 to 64) was quite rapid, and contributed significantly to growth, and welfare. After incorporating human capital, they also find that the growth of total factor productivity, still plays a positive, and significant role during the reform period. In contrast, productivity growth was negative in the pre-reform period. The results are robust to changes in labor shares in GDP. The recent declining rate of human capital accumulation is a cause for concern...

Water relations and leaf growth rate of three agropyron genotypes under water stress

García,María G.; Busso,Carlos A.; Polci,Pablo; García Girou,Norberto L.; Echenique,Vivivan
Fonte: Biocell Publicador: Biocell
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/12/2002 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.88%
The effects of water stress on leaf water relations and growth are reported for three perennial tussock grass genotypes under glasshouse conditions. Studies were performed in genotypes El Palmar INTA and Selección Anguil of Agropyron scabrifolium (Döell) Parodi, and El Vizcachero of A. elongatum (Host) Beauv. Agropyron scabrifolium El Palmar INTA is native to a region with warm-temperate and humid climate without a dry season, and an average annual precipitation of 900 mm. Agropyron scabrifolium Selección Anguil comes from a region with a sub-humid, dry to semiarid climate and a mean annual precipitation of 600 mm. Agropyron elongatum is a widespread forage in semiarid Argentina with well-known water stress resistance. A mild water stress treatment was imposed slowly; plants reached a minimum pre-dawn leaf water potential of about -1.83 MPa by day 21 after watering was withheld. In all genotypes, water stress led to a reduction of leaf growth. There was a tendency for a greater epicuticular wax accumulation on water-stressed plants of A. scabrifolium Selección Anguil and A. elongatum than on those of A. scabrifolium El Palmar INTA. This may have contributed to obtain greater turgor pressures and relative water contents in the first two than in the later genotype. In turn...