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Quantificação de risco de crédito: uma aplicação do modelo CreditRisk+ para financiamento de atividades rurais e agroindustriais.; Measures of credit risk: an aplication of the creditrisk+ model to financing of farm and agribusiness activities.

Stuchi, Luciano Gabas
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/02/2004 PT
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55.92%
A atividade bancária envolve em suas operações diversas formas de riscos. Dentre esses riscos está o risco de crédito, ou risco de inadimplência, presente em transações em que a instituição se torna credora. Sua mensuração exige que se tenha conhecimento da probabilidade de inadimplência associada a cada classificação. Neste trabalho são apresentadas as principais metodologias de quantificação do risco de crédito como Credit Metrics, KMV, Credit Portfolio View e CreditRisk+. Esta última metodologia, juntamente com o conceito de RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital), é aplicada a um portfólio de financiamentos rurais e agroindustriais à pessoa jurídica, evidenciando o capital econômico alocado (CEA) e o spread necessário para cobrir as perdas esperadas e inesperadas. Esse portfólio totaliza R$ 1,42 bilhões referentes ao mês de março de 2003. São construídos dois cenários com diferentes índices de inadimplência associados a cada classificação. O primeiro aproxima os percentuais de provisionamento definidos pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) para índices de inadimplência e o segundo utiliza os percentuais obtidos por uma matriz de migração de clientes vinculados às atividades rurais e agroindustriais para o período de 2000 a 2002. Observa-se como resultado que ocorre uma maior alocação de capital econômico para setores rurais e agroindustriais que possuem risco concentrado como o setor de fumo...

Determinantes da origem de cooperativas de crédito no Brasil; Determinants of existence of credit unions in Brazil

Lyra, Bethânia de Alencar Gama
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 25/11/2011 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.75%
Falhas de mercado, como imperfeições informacionais e dificuldades de fazer com que os contratos sejam cumpridos, podem levar arranjos financeiros alternativos, como cooperativas de crédito, a permitir o acesso a crédito que de outra forma não seria possível. Tal vantagem depende de características locais como a confiança e informação compartilhada no município (que pode ser chamado de capital social). Esta dissertação realiza uma avaliação empírica decorrente da ideia expressa acima. Nela testa-se se o capital social - medido por variáveis como votos brancos e nulos em eleições para vereador, homogeneidade de renda, religião e raça - impacta a quantidade de cooperativas de crédito existentes nos municípios brasileiros de 2000 a 2008. Os resultados corroboram a tese exposta indicando que o capital social está positivamente relacionado com o número de cooperativas no Brasil.Todavia, os resultados dependem de quais variáveis são utilizadas como medidas de capital social. É possível que algumas variáveis de homogeneidade e imigração utilizadas não sejam boas medidas de capital social. Ademais, também há indícios que essa relação positiva não é fruto apenas de uma relação positiva com o crédito em geral.; Market failures such as informational imperfections and problems with enforcement may lead alternative financial arrangements...

A Review of Credit Guarantee Schemes in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Saadani, Youssef; Arvai, Zsofia; Rocha, Roberto
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.83%
Many countries in the MENA region have established partial credit guarantee schemes to facilitate SME access to finance. These schemes can play an important role, especially in a period where MENA governments are making efforts to improve the effectiveness of credit registries and bureaus and strengthen creditor rights. This paper reviews the design of partial credit guarantee schemes in MENA, and assesses their preliminary outcomes. The paper is based on a survey conducted in 10 MENA countries in early 2010. The authors find that the average size of guarantee schemes in MENA (measured by the total value of outstanding guarantees) is in line with the international average, although there are wide differences across countries, and some schemes seem too small to make any significant impact. Most importantly, the number of guarantees looks generally small while their average value looks large. This suggests that guarantee schemes are not yet reaching the smaller firms. Guarantee schemes in MENA look financially sound and most schemes have room to grow. However...

Macroprudential Regulation of Credit Booms and Busts : The Experience of the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia

Celeska, Frosina; Gligorova, Viktorija; Krstevska, Aneta
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper provides an overview of the macroprudential measures undertaken by the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia to prevent further deterioration of the systemic risk and to promote resilience of the banking system. The measures were generally aimed at addressing the time dimension of the systemic risk and were intended to protect the banking system against the increase of credit risk arising from the credit boom. The paper also outlines the future challenges facing financial regulation and supervision, as well as the most important quantitative and qualitative impacts of the utilized macroprudential measures.

Credit Growth and Financial Stability in the Czech Republic

Frait, Jan; Gersl, Adam; Seidler, Jakub
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.89%
The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the developments in the Czech banking sector and explains how the tough macroeconomic environment in the Czech Republic acted as a strong tool of macroprudential policy. It concludes that although it is difficult to tame credit booms in small converging economies, a concerted set of microprudential and macroprudential measures, including monetary and fiscal ones, may ensure some success.

Macroprudential Regulation of Credit Booms and Busts : The Case of Croatia

Kraft, Evan; Galac, Tomislav
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.9%
Croatia employed macroprudential measures to manage credit growth and capital inflows during the boom years of the 2000s, including reserve requirements on loan growth, a marginal reserve requirement on increases in foreign liabilities, foreign exchange liquidity minima, and elevated capital adequacy ratios. Although quantitative analysis is complicated by substantial overlaps among measures, the econometric results in this paper suggest that the measures were most effective in requiring banks to hold high liquidity and capital buffers, and less effective in slowing credit growth and capital inflows. Larger buffers seem to have helped Croatian banks weather the financial crisis, making the adjustments to capital and liquidity during the crisis smaller.

Payment Systems, Inside Money and Financial Intermediation

Merrouche, Ouarda; Nier, Erlend
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.89%
This paper assesses the impact of introducing an efficient payment system on the amount of credit provided by the banking system. Two channels are investigated. First, innovations in wholesale payments technology enhance the security and speed of deposits as a payment medium for customers and therefore affect the split between holdings of cash and the holdings of deposits that can be intermediated by the banking system. Second, innovations in wholesale payments technology help establish well-functioning interbank markets for end-of-day funds, which reduces the need for banks to hold excess reserves. The authors examine these links empirically using payment system reforms in Eastern European countries as a laboratory. The analysis finds evidence that reforms led to a shift away from cash in favor of demand deposits and that this in turn enabled a prolonged credit expansion in the sample countries. By contrast, while payment system innovations also led to a reduction in excess reserves in some countries...

Credit Constraints and Investment Behavior in Mexico’s Rural Economy

Love, Inessa; Sanchez, Susana M.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.9%
This paper uses two recently completed surveys of individual entrepreneurs (farmers and microentrepreneurs) and registered enterprises (agricultural and nonagricultural) operating in Mexico s rural sector to provide new evidence about the factors influencing the incidence of credit constraints and investment behavior. To measure the incidence of credit constraints, the authors use self-reported information on whether economic agents have a demand for loans, separating formal and informal markets. They define credit constraints as a situation where rural agents report an unsatisfied demand for loans (formal or informal), which originates from rural agents having projects that are too risky or from impediments hindering the ability of rural agents and lenders to reduce information asymmetries. The authors find that the self-reported demand for loans is low. Nevertheless, the incidence of credit constraints is pervasive, especially among individual entrepreneurs. The low use of loans has consequences for the amount of investments that occur in the rural economy...

Gross Inflows Gone Wild : Gross Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Crises

Calderon, Cesar; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.81%
The main goal of the paper is to examine whether surges in private capital inflows lead to credit booms. The authors built a quarterly database on gross capital inflows, credit to the private sector, and other macro-financial indicators for a sample of 71 countries from 1975q1 to 2010q4. Identifying credit booms is not trivial: they use different criteria implemented in the literature. The estimates suggest that: (i) Surges in gross private capital inflows are overall good predictors of credit booms. (ii) The likelihood of credit booms is higher if the surges in foreign flows are driven by private other investment inflows and, to a lesser extent, portfolio investment inflows. (iii) Surges in gross inflows are also good predictors of credit booms that end up in a financial crisis -- "bad" credit booms. This finding holds even after controlling for the appreciation of the local currency and the build-up of leverage. (iv) Bad credit booms are more likely to occur when surges are driven by other investment inflows. At best...

Bank Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises : The Republic of Serbia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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55.91%
This report presents findings of a study of Bank lending to small and medium enterprises (SME) in Serbia. The study uses methodology developed by the Bank and already used in a number of studies in South America. The study is based on answers to standard questionnaires and detailed on-site interviews with eight banks. The interviewed banks are the most active in SME lending in Serbia and account for about 70 percent of the total market. Banks are currently offering a fairly broad range of both tailored and standardized products and are increasingly flexible with product pricing. This includes checking, savings and time deposit accounts; export and import loans; overdrafts for working capital and investment loans; business credit cards; various types of payment services; Internet and phone banking. The report is organized as follows: section two describes the banking sector and markets in Serbia, reviews definition of SMEs and provides key characteristics of the SME finance market in Serbia. Section three discusses details of SME access to finance. It describes the drivers and obstacles...

Financial Sector Assessment : Republic of Latvia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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55.9%
Latvia has a well-developed financial sector, but in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, access to finance has become a major constraint for the development of private enterprises. Credit to the private sector in Latvia, at above 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is one of the highest in Eastern Europe, after significant growth over the last decade. However, in the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis, credit growth has been negative (average annual growth of -7 percent between FY2009-2011) and access to finance has become one of the most significant obstacles for growth according to enterprises (close to 30 percent of firms identify it as an obstacle in 2009, versus 2 percent before the crisis). This contributed to a significant decline in the volume of private investment, which dropped by 48 percent between 2008 and 2010. Credit constraints are more severe in specific segments, including smaller firms. In response to these challenges, the Government has supported credit to the private sector through various instruments...

Duration Dependence and Change-Points in the Likelihood of Credit Booms Ending

Castro, Vitor; Kubota, Megumi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
75.81%
Whether the likelihood of a credit boom ending is dependent on its age or not, or whether the respective behavior is smooth or bumpy are important issues to which the economic literature has not given attention yet. This paper tries to fill that gap, exploring those issues with a proper duration analysis. Credit booms are identified considering two criteria well established in the literature: (i) the Mendoza-Terrones criteria and (ii) and the Gourinchas-Valdes-Landarretche criteria. A continuous-time Weibull duration model is employed over a group of 71 countries for the period 1975q1-2010q4 to investigate whether credit booms are duration dependent or not. The findings show that the likelihood of credit booms ending increases over their duration and that these events have become longer over the past decades. In addition, the paper extends the baseline Weibull duration model in order to allow for change-points in the duration dependence parameter. The empirical findings support the presence of a change-point: increasing positive duration dependence is observed in booms that last less than eight to ten quarters...

Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Rural Nonfarm Participation : Evidence from Rwanda

Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Deininger, Klaus; Duponchel, Marguerite
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.9%
Although the potentially negative impacts of credit constraints on economic development have long been discussed conceptually, empirical evidence for Africa remains limited. This study uses a direct elicitation approach for a national sample of Rwandan rural households to assess empirically the extent and nature of credit rationing in the semi-formal sector and its impact using an endogenous sample separation between credit-constrained and unconstrained households. Being credit constrained reduces the likelihood of participating in off-farm self-employment activities by about 6.3 percent while making participation in low-return farm wage labor more likely. Even within agriculture, elimination of all types of credit constraints in the semi-formal sector could increase output by some 17 percent. Two suggestions for policy emerge from the findings. First, the estimates suggest that access to information (education, listening to the radio, and membership in a farm cooperative) has a major impact on reducing the incidence of credit constraints in the semi-formal credit sector. Expanding access to information in rural areas thus seems to be one of the most promising strategies to improve credit access in the short term. Second...

Kyrgyz Republic : Diagnostic Review of Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy, Volume 2. Comparison with Good Practices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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55.87%
The Diagnostic Review for Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy (CPFL) provides a detailed assessment of the institutional, legal and regulatory framework for consumer protection in two segments of the financial sector: banking and microfinance. The review was undertaken in response to a request for technical assistance in the field of financial consumer protection made by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) in November 2012.

The Economic Effects of a Borrower Bailout : Evidence from an Emerging Market

Gine, Xavier; Kanz, Martin
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.9%
This paper studies the credit market implications and real effects of one the largest borrower bailout programs in history, enacted by the government of India against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The study finds that the stimulus program had no effect on productivity, wages, or consumption, but led to significant changes in credit allocation and an increase in defaults. Post-program loan performance declines faster in districts with greater exposure to the program, an effect that is not driven by greater risk-taking of banks. Loan defaults become significantly more sensitive to the electoral cycle after the program, suggesting the anticipation of future credit market interventions as an important channel through which moral hazard in loan repayment is intensified.

Drivers and Obstacles to Banking SMEs : The Role of Competition and the Institutional Framework

de la Torre, Augusto; Martínez Pería, María Soledad; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.89%
This paper studies the factors banks perceive as drivers and obstacles to financing small and medium enterprises (SMEs), focusing on the role of competition and the institutional framework. Using a survey of banks in Argentina and Chile, the paper shows that, despite alleged differences in the countries' environments regarding rules, regulations, and ease of doing business, SMEs have become a strategic segment for most banks in both countries. In particular, banks have begun to target SMEs due to the significant competition in the corporate and retail sectors. They perceive the SMEs market as highly profitable, large, and with good prospects. Moreover, banks are developing coping mechanisms to overcome the particular institutional obstacles present in each country and to compete for SMEs. Banks' interest in SMEs is not based on government programs, yet policy action might help reduce the cost of providing financing, especially long-term lending.

Causes and Implications of Credit Rationing in Rural Ethiopia : The Importance of Spatial Variation

Ayalew Ali, Daniel; Deininger, Klaus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.91%
This paper uses Ethiopian data to explore credit rationing in semi-formal credit markets and its effects on farmers' resource allocation and crop productivity. Credit rationing -- both voluntarily and involuntarily -- is found to be widespread in the sampled rural villages, largely because of risk-related factors. Political and social networks emerge as key determinants of access to credit among smallholder, peasant farmers. Significant regional variation emerges as well. In high-potential, surplus producing areas where credit is largely used for agricultural production, eliminating credit constraints is estimated to increase productivity by roughly 11 percentage points. By contrast, in low-productivity, drought prone areas where loans were rarely used to acquire inputs for crop production, the authors find no relationship between credit rationing and agricultural productivity. To be effective, efforts to improve agricultural productivity not only need to increase credit supply, but also explore the reasons for credit rationing and the availability of productive opportunities.

Principles of Financial Regulation : A Dynamic Portfolio Approach

Stiglitz, Joseph E.
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research :: Journal Article; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.76%
Economists seeking explanations for the global financial crisis of 1997-99 are reaching consensus that a major factor was weak financial institutions, which resulted in part from inadequate government regulations. At the same time many developing countries are struggling with an overregulated financial system-one that stifles innovation and the flow of credit to new entrepreneurs and that can stunt the growth of well-established firms. In particular, too many countries are relying excessively on capital adequacy standards, which are inefficient and sometimes counterproductive. The author argues that financial systems can be reformed successfully using a 'dynamic portfolio approach' aimed at managing the incentives and constraints that affect not only financial institutions exposure to risk but also their ability to cope with it. The article sets out general principles of financial regulation and shows how the dynamic portfolio approach can help countries deal with the special problems that arise during the transition to a more liberalized economy as well as those that arise in dealing with a financial crisis similar to the 1997 crisis in East Asia.

Why Liquidity Matters to the Export Decision of the Firm

Chan, Rosanna
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
65.86%
Under financial constraints, exporting may have less to do with productivity and more to do with financial resources. The established relationship between exporting and productivity would differ when examined through the lens of the working capital needs of the firm. The hypothesis that working capital matters in the firm's exporting decision is explored in two ways: first, by articulating a dynamic working capital model of the firm that incorporates the firm's export decision. Secondly, by testing the hypothesis empirically using a unique firm level dataset from Bangladesh, where issues of financial constraints are particularly acute. The model shows that productivity determines export status of the firm as long as it is not under financial constraints. However, under financial constraints, export status is less dependent on productivity and more dependent on the availability of working capital. Empirical results support the model's prediction. The relationship between exporting time and the need for greater liquidity is also borne out empirically as shown by a positive and significant correlation between the amount of working capital and the distance of export destination. An important policy implication from the analysis is that short term liquidity is critical in allowing productive firms to export and that access to finance may prevent the benefits of trade liberalization within a country to be fully realized.

The effects of credit risk transfer on bank monitoring and firm financing

Behr, Patrick Gottfried
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia da FGV
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
55.89%
This paper examines the efects of the transfer of credit risk associated with bank loans. We are interested in (a) whether the transfer of credit risk has any impact on the intensity with which banks monitor their borrowers and (b) whether credit risk transfer infuences the amount of financing that is provided to firms in an economy. Our model first develops conditions under which bank finance is available to firrms, mainly in the spirit of Holmstrom/Tirole (1997). We then introduce projects with uncorrelated pay-offs and argue that one possible economic rationale for credit risk transfer is diversi¯cation. We analyze whether and how within this scenario the transfer of the credit risk of loans changes a bank's incentives to monitor its debtors. Finally we investigate whether and what kind of impact this may have on the amount of ¯nancing available to firms in an economy. Our results indicate that the monitoring incentives are being eroded indeed and that credit risk transfer can increase the overall amount of obtainable funds in an economy.