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Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare : Evidence from Brazil in 2008

Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Fruttero, Anna; Leite, Phillippe; Lucchetti, Leonardo
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.72%
Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless...

Changing Contributions of Different Agricultural Policy Instruments to Global Reductions in Trade and Welfare

Croser, Johanna; Anderson, Kym
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.62%
Trade negotiators and policy advisors are keen to know the relative contribution of different farm policy instruments to international trade and economic welfare. Nominal rates of assistance or producer support estimates are incomplete indicators, especially when (especially in developing countries) some commodities are taxed and others are subsidized, in which case positive contributions can offset negative contributions. This paper develops and estimates a new set of more-satisfactory indicators to examine the relative contribution of different farm policy instruments to reductions in agricultural trade and welfare, drawing on recent literature on trade restrictiveness indexes and a recently compiled database on distortions to agricultural prices for 75 developing and high-income countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Results confirm earlier findings that border taxes are the dominant instrument affecting global trade and welfare, but they also suggest declines in export taxes contributed nearly as much as cuts in import protection to global welfare gains from agricultural policy reforms since the 1980s.

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices : A Global Perspective

De Hoyos, Rafael E.; Medvedev, Denis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.75%
The spike in food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 has highlighted the vulnerabilities of poor consumers to higher prices of agricultural goods and generated calls for massive policy action. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices on global poverty using a representative sample of 63 to 93 percent of the population of the developing world. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food consumer price data between January 2005 and December 2007--when the relative price of food rose by an average of 5.6 percent --to find that the implied increase in the extreme poverty headcount at the global level is 1.7 percentage points, with significant regional variation. To take the second-order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that a 5.5 percent increase in agricultural prices (due to rising demand for first-generation biofuels) could raise global poverty in 2010 by 0.6 percentage points at the extreme poverty line and 0.9 percentage points at the moderate poverty line. Poverty increases at the regional level vary substantially...

Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries

Ivanic, Maros; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.7%
In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.

Responding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.79%
Following the world food price spike in 2008 and again in 2011, there has been increased attention on better understanding the drivers of food prices, their impacts on the poor, and policy response options. This paper provides a simple model that closely simulates actual historical food price behavior around which the analysis of the drivers of food price levels, volatility, and the associated response options is derived. Future food prices are likely to remain higher than pre-2007 levels and recent price uncertainty is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Accelerated use of food crops for industrial purposes (biofuels) continues to offset the slowing population growth effect on food demand. World food stocks remain at relatively low levels where the likelihood of price spikes is higher. Production gains may be harder to achieve in the future than in the past, with more limited space for area expansion, declining yield growth, and increases in weather variability. Suggested responses to reduce average food price levels are to (i) raise food crop yields...

Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2014

Baffes, John; Cosic, Damir
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.66%
The key commodity price indices were broadly stable during 2014. Energy prices changed little, only 0.4 higher than 2013; agricultural prices increased 1.8 percent on weather-related concerns and metal prices declined 3.2 percent on Chinese demand weakness. Agricultural prices are projected to ease in 2014 under the assumption that current crop conditions will persist for the next crop year. A weather-induced increase in maize and wheat prices in late February and March 2014 was partly offset by declines in rice prices. The report includes detailed market analysis for most primary commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. It also includes historical and recent price data as well as price forecasts going up to 2025.

Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014

Baffes, John; Cosic, Damir
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.7%
With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel (bbl) during 2013, marginally lower than the $105/bbl average of 2012. Most non-energy commodity prices, notably grains, followed a downward path during 2013. Other risks for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside as well. For example, the risk of trade policies impacting agricultural prices is low as evidenced by the absence of any export restrictions during 2011-13, despite several spikes in prices (notably maize and wheat). Finally, production of biofuels experienced a third year of little (or no) growth, as policy makers increasingly realize that the environmental and energy independence benefits from biofuels may not outweigh the costs.

Food Prices, Wages, and Welfare in Rural India

Jacoby, Hanan G.
Fonte: Wiley Publicador: Wiley
Tipo: Journal Article; Publications & Research; Publications & Research :: Journal Article
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.45%
With soaring food prices in recent years has come alarm about rising poverty in the developing world. Less appreciated, however, is that many of the poor in agricultural economies may benefit from higher wages. This study finds that wages for manual labor in rural India, both within and outside agriculture, rose faster in districts growing more of those crops with large producer price run-ups over the 2004–2009 period. Based on a general equilibrium framework that accounts for such wage gains, rural households across the income spectrum are found, contrary to more conventional welfare analysis, to benefit from higher agricultural prices. For non-commercial use in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions at http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html

Distortions to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Anderson, Kym; Brückner, Markus
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.68%
To what extent has Sub-Saharan Africa's slow economic growth over the past five decades been due to price and trade policies that discouraged production of agricultural relative to non-agricultural tradables? This paper uses a new set of estimates of policy induced distortions to relative agricultural prices to address this question econometrically. First, the authors test if these policy distortions respond to economic growth, using rainfall and international commodity price shocks as instrumental variables. They find that on impact there is no significant response of relative agricultural price distortions to changes in real GDP per capita growth. Then, the authors test the reverse proposition and find a statistically significant and sizable negative effect of relative agricultural price distortions on the growth rate of Sub-Saharan African countries. The fixed effects estimates yield that, during the 1960-2005 period, a ten percentage points increase in distortions to relative agricultural prices decreased the region's real GDP per capita growth rate by about half a percentage point per annum.

Domestic Terms of Trade in Pakistan : Implications for Agricultural Pricing and Taxation Policies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.66%
In 2008 the Government of Pakistan agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase the tax/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 3.5 percentage points over the medium term. This commitment has rekindled the debate regarding the agricultural income tax. Advocates of an agricultural income tax argue that the sector remains protected by political interests, while opponents to such a tax maintain that agriculture is already subject to significant indirect taxation, mainly because of prevailing price distortions in agricultural product markets. This paper reviews the literature on domestic terms of trade analysis in Pakistan and calculates an updated set of terms of trade indices for agriculture relative to industry. The paper also discusses key issues with regard to the imposition of agricultural income tax in Pakistan, and uses simulation results from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Pakistan economy to analyze the potential effects of the imposition of an agricultural income tax on poverty and fiscal revenues. The results suggest that the domestic terms of trade have remained unfavorable for Pakistan's agriculture during almost the entire 2000-2009 period. Agriculture's terms of trade declined from 2001-02 to 2003-04 before improving only slightly during the period from 2004-05 to 2006-07. As of 2007 however...

Agricultural Trade : What Matters in the Doha Round?

Laborde, David; Martin, Will
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.69%
This survey concludes that including agriculture in the Doha Agenda negotiations was important both economically and politically, although the political resistance to reform is particularly strong in this sector. While agriculture accounts for less than 10 percent of merchandise trade, high and variable agricultural distortions appear to cause the majority of the cost of distortions to global merchandise trade. Within agriculture, most of the costs appear to arise from trade barriers levied on imports since these barriers tend to be high, variable across time and over products, and are levied by a wide range of countries. The negotiations faced a need for balance between discipline in reducing tariffs and hence creating the market access gains that are central to the negotiations, and flexibility in managing political pressures. While the approach of providing flexibility on a certain percentage of tariff lines is seriously flawed, the proposed Modalities still appear to provide worthwhile market access. Better ways appear to be needed to deal with developing countries' concerns about food price volatility while reducing the collective-action problems resulting from price insulation.

Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects

Anderson, Kym
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.67%
Most of the world's poorest people depend on farming for their livelihood. Earnings from farming in low-income countries are depressed partly due to a pro-urban bias in own-country policies, and partly because richer countries (including some developing countries) favor their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduce national and global economic growth and add to inequality and poverty in developing countries. Acknowledgement of that since the 1980s has given rise to greater pressures for reform, both internal and external. Over the past two decades numerous developing country governments have reduced their sectoral and trade policy distortions, while many high-income countries continue with protectionist policies that harm developing country exports of farm products. Recent research suggests that the agricultural protectionist policies of high-income countries reduce welfare in many developing countries. Most of those studies also suggest that full global liberalization of merchandise trade would raise value added in agriculture in developing country regions, and that much of the benefit from global reform would come not just from reform in high-income countries but also from liberalization among developing countries...

Food Prices, Wages, and Welfare in Rural India

Jacoby, Hanan G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.75%
This paper considers the welfare and distributional consequences of higher relative food prices in rural India through the lens of a specific-factors, general equilibrium, trade model applied at the district level. The evidence shows that nominal wages for manual labor both within and outside agriculture respond elastically to increases in producer prices; that is, wages rose faster in rural districts growing more of those crops with large price run-ups over 2004-09. Accounting for such wage gains, the analysis finds that rural households across the income spectrum benefit from higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, rural wage adjustment appears to play a much greater role in protecting the welfare of the poor than the Public Distribution System, India's giant food-rationing scheme. Moreover, policies, like agricultural export bans, which insulate producers (as well as consumers) from international price increases, are particularly harmful to the poor of rural India. Conventional welfare analyses that assume fixed wages and focus on households' net sales position lead to radically different conclusions.

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa

Anderson, Kym; Masters, William A.
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.7%
One of every two people in Sub-Saharan Africa survives on less than $1.25 a day. That proportion has changed little over the past three decades, unlike in Asia and elsewhere, so the region's share of global poverty has risen from one-tenth to almost one-third since 1980. About 70 percent of today's 400 million poor Africans live in rural areas and depend directly or indirectly on farming for their livelihoods. While that rural share was even higher in the past, it means policies affecting the incentives for farmers to produce and sell farm products remain a major influence on the extent of Africa's poverty. The case studies help address questions such as the following: where is there still a policy bias against agricultural production? To what extent are some farmers now being protected from import competition? What are the political economic forces behind the more-successful reformers, and how do they compare with those in less-successful countries where major distortions in agricultural incentives remain? How important have domestic political forces been in bringing about reform...

Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2014

Baffes, John
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.74%
Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening demand, especially by China. Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The key commodity price indices have been broadly stable during 2014Q2. Energy and agricultural prices increased 1 percent each, on geopolitical and weather-related concerns, respectively; while metal prices declined 1 percent on signs of Chinese demand weakness. The increase in beverage prices was driven by a rally in coffee prices due to dry weather in Brazil world's largest coffee supplier. Precious metal prices changed little while fertilizer prices declined 6.5 percent due to weakness in natural gas prices.

High Food Prices, Latin American and the Caribbean Responses to a New Normal; El alto precio de los alimentos, respuestas de ALC a una nueva normalidad

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.73%
Yet the current situation differs from 2007-2008 in critical respects. First, recent international price increases are more widespread across agricultural commodities than in 2008, when price spikes were led by few grains such as wheat and rice. Second, natural resources are affecting food production: land and water constraints are more binding than in the past and weather induced production shortfalls are more of a factor now than it was 2008. Climate change also adds to this uncertainty, particularly since a larger share of grain exports are being produced in areas more exposed to climate variability. Third, long term structural changes in the markets are more clearly a major factor this time, as demand for feed and income-elastic foods under sustained and widespread income growth in emerging countries is increasing steadily. Fourth, the global stocks/use ratio for major cereals, which used to hover in the range of 30-35 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, has been around 20 percent after 2003 due largely to long-term policy changes in high-income countries; and stocks of some critical players are now at all-time lows. Global markets are currently experiencing the second sharp spike in food prices in the last four years. While no one has a crystal ball to predict with confidence the future prices of food products...

Ukraine Agricultural Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.71%
The agri-food sector is an important part of the Ukrainian economy. Agriculture could make an even larger contribution to economic growth and the vitality of rural areas in Ukraine than is currently the case. Ukraine has the agro-climatic potential to be a major player on world agricultural markets. Agricultural competitiveness in Ukraine also suffers from inadequate systems to test and document food product quality and food safety. Ukraine's food safety control system is complicated and characterized by fragmented and often overlapping jurisdictions. Many standards applied in Ukraine are inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions, with standards established by the responsible international bodies and with accepted practices in international trade. Without improvements towards an efficient and internationally recognized food quality and safety control system, Ukrainian agriculture will find it increasingly difficult to sell into international markets and its products will not be able to command top prices. The ban on Ukrainian meat...

Higher Fuel and Food Prices : Impacts and Responses for Mozambique

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.73%
The dramatic increases in world food and fuel prices during 2007 and early 2008 may set back Mozambique's considerable advances in poverty reduction during the past decade. This study assesses the impact of higher fuel and food prices at both household and macroeconomic levels, and also considers policy options to mitigate some of the negative impacts of higher prices. Rising world prices certainly represents a negative terms-of-trade shock for Mozambique, since the country imports almost all of its fuel and is a net importer of food. The report is structured in six sections. Section two presents information on the extent of international food and fuel price increases and their transmission to local markets in Mozambique. Section three presents household-level analysis focused on the first order impact of the food price increases. Section four complements previous sections by examining the impact of higher food and fuel prices within a general equilibrium framework. Section five discusses the likely impact of alternative policy options in the short and long term. Section six summarizes and concludes.

Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited

Anderson, Kym; Kurzweil, Marianne; Martin, Will; Sandri, Damiano; Valenzuela, Ernesto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.72%
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.

Efeitos dos ganhos de produtividade total dos fatores da agropecuária sobre os preços agrícolas no Brasil: 1970-2006; The effects of total factor productivity over the food prices in Brazil

Mendes, Giovanna Miranda
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 11/09/2015 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.69%
A agropecuária brasileira tem crescido nas últimas décadas e os ganhos de produtividade tem sido importante neste bom desempenho do setor. O presente trabalho tem dois objetivos principais. O primeiro deles foi mensurar o crescimento desta produtividade total dos fatores na agropecuária brasileira estadual, decompondo o crescimento da PTF em progresso tecnológico e eficiência técnica. O segundo objetivo foi analisar o efeito do crescimento da PTF da agropecuária brasileira sobre os preços agrícolas, no Brasil, de 1970 a 2006. O crescimento desta produtividade foi mensurado a partir dos insumos terra, trabalho e capital na função de produção translog sob orientação do produto, a partir do método de Fronteira Estocástica de Produção e do índice de produtividade de Malmquist. Para avaliar o efeito do crescimento da PTF sobre os preços agrícolas foi construído o índice de preços agrícolas utilizando-se o Índice de preços de Laspeyres para estimar o vetor autoregressivo em painel (panel- VAR), acrescentando as variáveis produtividade total dos fatores (PTF), salário rural, financiamento agrícola e renda per capita domiciliar. Além disso, foi aplicado o teste de causalidade, no sentido de Granger, e estimada a função impulso resposta. A base de dados utilizada foi...