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The Evolution of Agricultural Trade Flows

Aksoy, M. Ataman; Ng, Francis
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.48%
Earlier research showed that during the 1980s and 1990s most of the global agricultural trade expansion took place among the industrial countries and among countries within trade blocs. These were also periods of declining agricultural prices. These prices increased during the 2000s, there were continuous trade reforms, and many developing countries started to support their agricultural sectors. This paper analyzes trade flows during the past two decades, and tries to measure whether all these developments have changed the trade balances and the share of different groups within the global trade flows. In addition, it looks at the trade balances on food to see the impact of these changes on net food importing countries. In conclusion, unlike the case with manufacturing, developing countries have not been able to increase their export shares in agriculture as significantly. They have maintained their trade shares by primarily expanding exports to other developing countries.

Crop Production and Road Connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa : A Spatial Analysis

Dorosh, Paul; Wang, Hyoung-Gun; You, Liang; Schmidt, Emily
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
This study examines the relationship between transport infrastructure and agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa using new data obtained from geographic information systems (GIS). First, the authors analyze the impact of road connectivity on crop production and choice of technology. Second, they explore the impact of investments that reduce road travel times. Finally, they show how this type of analysis can be used to compare cost-benefit ratios for alternative road investments in terms of agricultural output per dollar invested. The authors find that agricultural production is highly correlated with proximity (as measured by travel time) to urban markets. Likewise, adoption of high-productive/high-input technology is negatively correlated with travel time to urban centers. There is therefore substantial scope for increasing agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in more remote areas. Total crop production relative to potential production is 45 percent for areas within four hours travel time from a city of 100...

Pakistan : Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
This report shows that after a decade of moderate growth but little or no long term change in rural poverty in Pakistan, agricultural output, rural incomes, rural poverty and social welfare indicators all showed marked improvements between 2001-02 and 2004-05. However, longer term trends suggest there is little reason for complacency. The agricultural GDP per capita growth rate (1999- 2000 to 2004-05) was only 0.3 percent per year; rural poverty rates in 2004-05 are still at levels that approximate those of the 1990s; and social welfare indicators in Pakistan remain significantly below those of other countries in south Asia. Moreover, problems related to timing and availability of water for irrigation, inadequate rural infrastructure, a skewed distribution of assets, and low levels of health and education continue to slow the progress of economic growth and poverty reduction. Nonetheless, Pakistan has made important strides in the last several years to promote rural growth and poverty reduction. The study concludes that a comprehensive rural growth and poverty reduction strategy is needed...

Cultivating Knowledge and Skills to Grow African Agriculture

Agwe, Jonathan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
This Program states that larger investments in agricultural research, extension, and education systems are required to achieve the targeted increase in agricultural output of 6 percent a year over the next 20 years.To enhance the quality and productivity of Agricultural Education and Training (AET) in Africa, the case for improving its agricultural education capacities is compelling in view of their seminal role in agricultural development elsewhere in the world. AET development was an integral part of strategies of countries that grew agriculture successfully, such as Brazil, India, and Malaysia. The analytical work carried out on AET in Africa identified some priorities as key to modernize agricultural education in Africa These priorities are: 1 Political will must be generated in support of agricultural development by educating the public about its role in economic growth and poverty reduction, creating capacities for lobbying, joining forces with other stakeholders, and sustaining these efforts over two or three decades.(2) It is desirable to assess and re-balance AET enrollment profiles away from secondary level vocational training towards diploma...

Food and Agricultural Policy in Russia : Progress to Date and the Road Forward

Csaki, Csaba; Nash, John; Matusevich, Vera; Kray, Holger
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.43%
The overall finding of this report is that much agricultural policy is made at the regional level, and here the explicit price, and trade policy distortions are significantly worse than at the federal level. The result is patchwork of inconsistent policies, that has fragmented the Russian national market. The most serious policy issues at the federal level, are in the legal framework, the continued state domination of some markets, and, the administration of limited subsidies, in ways that undermine market development. A major problem is that large farms face soft budget constraints, with tolerance of non-payment of debt, resulting in an increasing debt burden, little incentive for true restructuring, and an uneven playing field with respect to the private sector. The government recently addressed the issue of farm insolvency, through the Resolution on Agricultural Debt Restructuring, and, a fundamental approach to this problem is being elaborated in the draft Law on Financial Rehabilitation of Agricultural Enterprises. But the key to giving enterprises an incentive to participate in real restructuring...

Pakistan - Rural Factor Markets : Policy Reforms for Growth and Equity

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.42%
Accelerating rural economic growth and reducing rural poverty requires a comprehensive strategy built on sound analysis covering all major aspects o f the rural economy including agricultural output markets, input markets (seeds, fertilizer, extension), factor markets (land, water, labor and credit), the rural non- farm economy, and targeted interventions. This report focuses on one aspect o f this complex puzzle - rural factor markets. It builds on earlier work on output and input markets, and anticipates future analytical work on the rural non-farm economy and other key aspects o f the rural economy. The report identifies the main factor market inefficiencies in rural Pakistan, provides estimates of their impact in terms of efficiency and equity, and suggests policy measures to improve the functioning of these markets, increase rural incomes and help reduce rural poverty. In presenting the results, each factor is discussed in turn, drawing on descriptions of institutional constraints and statistical analysis of recent household survey data. Key new findings include quantitative estimates of the importance of linkages across factor markets and the impact of factor market inefficiencies on agricultural output and revenues. In addition...

Political Economy of Public Policies : Insights from Distortions to Agricultural and Food Markets

Anderson, Kym; Rausser, Gordon; Swinnen, Johan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.37%
The agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies. Many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational, while others have been gradual but persistent. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political-economy explanations that have been advanced. Based on a rich global data set covering a half-century of evidence on commodities, countries, and policy instruments, the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible.

Determinants of Agricultural Growth in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand

Mundlack, Yair; Larson, Donald F.; Butzer, Rita
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.39%
The introduction of new high-yielding varieties of cereals in the 1960s, known as the green revolution. Changed dramatically the food supply I Asia, as well as in other countries. The authors examine over an extended period, the growth consequences for agriculture in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Despite geographic proximity, similar climate, and other shared characteristics, gains in productivity, and income differed significantly among the countries. The authors quantify these differences, and examine their determinants. They find that the new technology changed the returns to fertilizers, irrigated land, and capital, all of which proved scarce to varying degrees, Complementing technology-related changes in factor use were investments - public and private - driven in part by policy. The authors find that factor accumulation played an important role in output growth, and that accumulations from policy-driven investments in human capital, and public infrastructure, were important sources of productivity gains. They conclude that policies that ease constraints on factor markets...

How Endowments, Accumulations, and Choice Determine the Geography of Agricultural Productivity in Ecuador

Larson, Donald F.; Leon, Mauricio
Fonte: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank Publicador: Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.33%
Spatial disparity in incomes and productivity is apparent across and within countries. Most studies of the determinants of such differences focus on cross-country comparisons or location choice among firms. Less studied are the large differences in agricultural productivity within countries related to concentrations of rural poverty. For policy, understanding the determinants of this geography of agricultural productivity is important, because strategies to reduce poverty often feature components designed to boost regional agricultural incomes. Census and endowment data for Ecuador are used to estimate a model of endogenous technology choice to explain large regional differences in agricultural output and factor productivity. A composite-error estimation technique is used to separate systemic determinants from idiosyncratic differences. Simulations are employed to explore policy avenues. The findings suggest a differentiation between the types of policies that promote growth in agriculture generally and those that are more likely to assist the rural poor.

Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of : Analysis of the Agricultural Support Programs

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.37%
The report is structured to allow readers familiar with Macedonia s agriculture sector to quickly grasp the essentials needed to improve the sector, as well as to inform a general audience on how to address the challenges of a modern European Union (EU)-aspiring state. Chapter two provides an in-depth analysis of the sectoral background, illustrating the main characteristics and challenges of Macedonia s agriculture sector. The illustration takes an integrated approach to the sector, covering a vast range of inter-related topics including the prominence of the sector not only in terms of its economic and social contribution but also its implications for trade, the urban-rural poverty gap and shared prosperity, farm structure, climate adaptation, and capacity building. Chapter three draws on lessons from the European Union (EU) and provides a framework to analyze Macedonia s agricultural support programs. Further, the chapter provides a primer on the EU s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and its measures to support agriculture. Chapter four presents concise empirical evidence of the coverage and institutional capacity of the agricultural programs in Macedonia under both pillar one and pillar two measures. Chapter five then builds on the primary diagnostic set out in the previous chapters and critically examines the alignment of Macedonia s agricultural programs with the government s stated objectives of poverty reduction...

Krueger/Schiff/Valdes Revisited : Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries since 1960

Anderson, Kym
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.41%
A study of distortions to agricultural incentives in 18 developing countries during 1960-84, by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes (1988; 1991), found that policies in most of those developing countries were directly or indirectly harming their farmers. Since the mid-1980s there has been a substantial amount of policy reform and opening up of many developing countries, and indicators of that progress have been made available recently by a new study that has compiled estimates for a much larger sample of developing countries and for as many years as possible since 1955. The new study also covers Europe s transition economies and comparable estimates for high-income countries, thereby covering more than 90 percent of world agricultural output and employment. This paper summarizes the methodology used in the new study (pointing out similarities and differences with those used by the OECD and by Krueger, Schiff and Valdes), compares a synopsis of the indicators from Krueger, Schiff and Valdes and the new study for the period to 1984...

Investigating the Gender Gap in Agricultural Productivity

Ali, Daniel; Bowen, Derick; Deininger, Klaus; Duponchel, Marguerite
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
Women comprise 50 percent of the agricultural labor force in Sub-Saharan Africa, but manage plots that are reportedly on average 20 to 30 percent less productive. As a source of income inequality and aggregate productivity loss, the country-specific magnitude and drivers of this gender gap are of great interest. Using national data from the Uganda National Panel Survey for 2009/10 and 2010/11, the gap before controlling for endowments was estimated to be 17.5 percent. Panel data methods were combined with an Oaxaca decomposition to investigate the gender differences in resource endowment and return to endowment driving this gap. Although men have greater access to inputs, input use is so low and inverse returns to plot size so strong in Uganda that smaller female-managed plots have a net endowment advantage of 12 percent, revealing a larger unexplained gap of 29.5 percent. Two-fifths of this unexplained gap is attributed to differential returns to the child dependency ratio and one-fifth to differential returns to transport access...

Business Cycles Accounting for Paraguay

Hnatkovska, Viktoria; Koehler-Geib, Friederike
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.46%
This study investigates the role of domestic and external shocks in business cycle fluctuations in Paraguay during 1991–2012. Time-series methods and a structural model-based approach are used to conduct an integrated analysis of business cycles. First, structural vector autoregression is used to assess the role played by external factors and domestic shocks in driving fluctuations in gross domestic product through impulse response functions and variance decompositions. The analysis finds that external shocks such as terms of trade, world interest rate and foreign demand account for over 50 percent of real gross domestic product fluctuations. Given Paraguay’s strong dependence on agriculture, an analysis is also done for the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors separately. The analysis finds that non-agricultural gross domestic product is to a large extent driven by external shocks, which account for over 50 percent of its volatility. In contrast, the volatility in agricultural gross domestic product is primarily due to shocks to domestic variables...

Carbonomics of the Bangladesh agricultural output: Causality and long-run equilibrium

Murad, Wahid; Ratnatunga, Janek
Fonte: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd Publicador: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2013 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
66.51%
Purpose – The key purpose of this paper is to examine the causality and long-run relationship between CO2 emission and agricultural output for an agriculture-dependent developing country, namely Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach – In order to attain the objective, this study has used long-time series data and employed advanced econometric techniques of unit root test, nonlinear least square estimation, Vector Error Correction estimation and Granger causality test. Findings – The empirical results of the study reveal that Bangladesh agricultural output is not a Granger causal for Bangladesh CO2 emission, but the country's CO2 emission is a Granger causal for its agricultural output. The results also reveal for Bangladesh that any disequilibrium between CO2 emissions and agricultural output could take approximately 17 years to converge to the long-run equilibrium. The results further reveal that the adjustment rate for Bangladesh agricultural output is positive and quite fast at the rate of 69 percent a year. So any disequilibrium will be corrected mostly by the adjustment in Bangladesh agricultural output. Practical implications – The current CO2 emission in Bangladesh is still below the equilibrium level, which is considered to be an advantage for the country...

Georgia : Agricultural and Rural Enterprise Development

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
The report is structured as follows. Section one examines the contribution of the rural economy to the national economy, the structure of the farm and non-farm sectors and their relative importance. Section two describes policies and constraints affecting the wider rural economy including, reforms in macro-economic management, recent external influences and financial services before discussing those which relate specifically to agriculture including, agricultural trade policy, land reform, agricultural machinery services , irrigation and drainage, seeds, sanitary and phytosanitary control and veterinary services, marketing and advisory services. Section three assesses the outcomes of these policies on the structure and performance of the rural economy. Section four describes the extent to which policy makers should prioritize the farm and non-farm sectors in rural areas and then presents recommendations for reform. While it is recognized that rural infrastructure (roads, potable water, and energy) and rural social services have a major impact on the rural economy...

Kyrgyz Republic : Agricultural Policy Update, Volume 2. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
This policy note examines the policy and investment framework between 2003 and 2010, resulting sector performance and the priorities for future development. It draws attention to the need to refocus on completing the fundamental reforms and investments on which Kyrgyzstan's early successes were built. These include further development of land market, building rural finance markets, further public investment and institutional development in the irrigation sector, encouraging greater private investment in the seeds sector and machinery services, public-private partnerships for advisory service provision, completion of ongoing reforms in pasture management, development of veterinary services and improving the business environment for private investment in agro-processing. The policy Note discusses the government's approach to achieving greater food security, which centers on food self-sufficiency and discusses why this is not the best route to raising low rural incomes - the root cause of food insecurity. The report discusses some of the policies conceived after the food price crisis...

Republic of India : Accelerating Agricultural Productivity Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.39%
In the past 50 years, Indian agriculture has undergone a major transformation, from dependence on food aid to becoming a consistent net food exporter. The gradual reforms in the agricultural sector (following the broader macro-reforms of the early 1990s) spurred some unprecedented innovations and changes in the food sector driven by private investment. These impressive achievements must now be viewed in light of the policy and investment imperatives that lie ahead. Agricultural growth has improved in recent years (averaging about 3.5 percent since 2004-05), but at a long-term trend rate of growth of 3 percent, agriculture has underperformed relative to its potential. The pockets of post-reform dynamism that have emerged evidently have not reached a sufficiently large scale to influence the sector's performance. For the vast population that still derives a living directly or indirectly from agriculture, achieving "faster, more inclusive, and sustainable growth', the objectives at the heart of the Twelfth five year plan...

Domestic Terms of Trade in Pakistan : Implications for Agricultural Pricing and Taxation Policies

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Agricultural Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.37%
In 2008 the Government of Pakistan agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase the tax/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by 3.5 percentage points over the medium term. This commitment has rekindled the debate regarding the agricultural income tax. Advocates of an agricultural income tax argue that the sector remains protected by political interests, while opponents to such a tax maintain that agriculture is already subject to significant indirect taxation, mainly because of prevailing price distortions in agricultural product markets. This paper reviews the literature on domestic terms of trade analysis in Pakistan and calculates an updated set of terms of trade indices for agriculture relative to industry. The paper also discusses key issues with regard to the imposition of agricultural income tax in Pakistan, and uses simulation results from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the Pakistan economy to analyze the potential effects of the imposition of an agricultural income tax on poverty and fiscal revenues. The results suggest that the domestic terms of trade have remained unfavorable for Pakistan's agriculture during almost the entire 2000-2009 period. Agriculture's terms of trade declined from 2001-02 to 2003-04 before improving only slightly during the period from 2004-05 to 2006-07. As of 2007 however...

Ukraine Agricultural Competitiveness

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
The agri-food sector is an important part of the Ukrainian economy. Agriculture could make an even larger contribution to economic growth and the vitality of rural areas in Ukraine than is currently the case. Ukraine has the agro-climatic potential to be a major player on world agricultural markets. Agricultural competitiveness in Ukraine also suffers from inadequate systems to test and document food product quality and food safety. Ukraine's food safety control system is complicated and characterized by fragmented and often overlapping jurisdictions. Many standards applied in Ukraine are inconsistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions, with standards established by the responsible international bodies and with accepted practices in international trade. Without improvements towards an efficient and internationally recognized food quality and safety control system, Ukrainian agriculture will find it increasingly difficult to sell into international markets and its products will not be able to command top prices. The ban on Ukrainian meat...

Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited

Anderson, Kym; Kurzweil, Marianne; Martin, Will; Sandri, Damiano; Valenzuela, Ernesto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Notwithstanding the tariffication component of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, import tariffs on farm products continue to provide an incomplete indication of the extent to which agricultural producer and consumer incentives are distorted in national markets. Especially in developing countries, non-agricultural policies indirectly impact agricultural and food markets. Empirical analysis aimed at monitoring distortions to agricultural incentives thus need to examine both agricultural and non-agricultural policy measures including import or export taxes, subsidies and quantitative restrictions, plus domestic taxes or subsidies on farm outputs or inputs and consumer subsidies for food staples. This paper addresses the practical methodological issues that need to be faced when attempting to undertake such a measurement task in developing countries. The approach is illustrated in two ways: by presenting estimates of nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers in China for the period 1981 to 2005; and by summarizing estimates from an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model of the effects on agricultural versus non-agricultural markets of the project's measured distortions globally as of 2004.