Página 1 dos resultados de 629 itens digitais encontrados em 0.003 segundos

Hysteresis nas exportações manufaturadas brasileiras: uma análise de cointegração com dados em painel; Hysteresis in brazilian manufactured exports: a panel cointegration analysis

Scarpelli, Maíra Camargo
Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 04/03/2010 PT
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.41%
Apesar da recente queda no crescimento das exportações, a resposta das vendas externas à valorização cambial tem sido mais lenta do que previa a teoria econômica. Essas evidências sugerem a lentidão na correção dos desvios de uma relação de longo prazo entre o câmbio e as exportações, motivando a pesquisa sobre a presença de hysteresis no comércio brasileiro. O objetivo deste estudo é confirmar as predições da teoria de hysteresis em nível macroeconômico para as exportações manufaturadas brasileiras. Para isso, propõe-se um diferencial metodológico: a inclusão, nos modelos de oferta e demanda de exportações, de variável representativa de hysteresis, construída segundo o método de Piscitelli et al. (2000), testando sua significância nas equações. São utilizados modelos com dados em painel, metodologia que permite lidar com efeitos específicos aos setores industriais e realizar testes de hysteresis para o total das exportações manufaturadas a partir de informações desagregadas, proporcionado maior eficiência na estimação. Além disso, é investigada a estacionariedade das séries de dados, realizando testes para raiz unitária e cointegração em painel. Também são estimados os parâmetros das relações de longo prazo entre as variáveis. Os resultados confirmam a hipótese de uma relação de hysteresis...

Serbia - Country Economic Memorandum : The Road to Prosperity - Productivity and Exports, Volume 2. Main Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.45%
This report looks beyond the current global financial crisis to the restoration of dynamic long-run growth in Serbia. The answer in this report is that Serbia will need to fundamentally alter its growth model to compete effectively in world markets. The past model relying on excessive inflows of capital and credit that, in part, fuelled a consumption boom has run its course in all European countries. Serbia must shift to a greater export orientation so that it can attain the major gains in productivity and competitiveness necessary to propel economic growth to a much higher trajectory. This cannot happen without an explicit export strategy, and a set of concomitant structural reforms, driven by commitment and coordination at the highest political level. This report tries to pinpoint policy actions that would be most effective in raising the rate of productivity growth of Serbia s enterprises so that better export performance and sustained growth could be achieved. The report has three parts. Part I reviews Serbia s macroeconomic situation and its progress on structural reforms. Part II starts with a review of the current status of Serbia s exports and trade policy and regional trade arrangements. It then uses product space (PS) analysis to examine areas where Serbia has a revealed or potential comparative advantage. The report then moves on to two such areas...

Do Migrants Really Foster Trade? The Trade-Migration Nexus, a Panel Approach 1960-2000

Parsons, Christopher R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
Despite the burgeoning empirical literature providing evidence of a strong and robust positive correlation between trade and migration, doubts persist as to unobserved factors which may be driving this relationship. This paper re-examines the trade-migration nexus using a panel spanning several decades, which comprises the majority of world trade and migration in every decade. First the findings common to the literature are reproduced. Country-pair fixed effects are then used to account for unobserved bilateral factors, the implementation of which removes all of the positive impact of migration on trade. In other words the unobserved factors, a leading candidate for which it is argued is international bilateral ties, are on average strongly and positively correlated with migrant networks. Dividing the world into the relatively affluent North and poorer South, the results show that migrants from either region only affect Northern exports to the South. This is intuitive since in general countries of the North export more differentiated products and information barriers between these regions are greatest. A country-level analysis further shows that migrants may both create and divert trade. Taken as a whole...

Preferential Market Access Design: Evidence and Lessons from African Apparel Exports to the US and the EU

de Melo, Jaime; Portugal-Perez, Alberto
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.38%
Least developed countries rely on preferential market access. Proof of sufficient transformation has to be provided to customs in importing countries by meeting Rules of Origin requirements to benefit from these preferences. These Rules of Origin have turned out to be complicated and burdensome for exporters in the least developed countries. Starting around 2001, under the United States Africa Growth Opportunity Act, 22 African countries exporting apparel to the United States can use fabric from any origin (single transformation) and still meet the criterion for preferential access (the so-called Special Rule), while the European Union continued to require yarn to be woven into fabric and then made into apparel in the same country (double transformation). This paper uses panel estimates over 1996-2004 to exploit this quasi-experimental change in the design of preferences. The paper estimates that this simplification contributed to an increase in export volume of about 168 percent for the top seven beneficiaries or approximately four times as much as the 44 percent growth effect from the initial preference access under the Africa Growth Opportunity Act without the single transformation. This change in design also mattered for diversity in apparel exports...

Brazilian Exports : Climbing Down a Competitiveness Cliff

Canuto, Otaviano; Cavallari, Matheus; Guilherme Reis, José
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
This note examines in detail Brazil s export performance over the past 15 years, focusing not only on growth and composition, but also on different performance dimensions, including diversification, sophistication, and firm dynamics. The analysis uses international comparisons to better situate the Brazilian performance, and explores different databases, including firm-level data recently published by the World Bank. The note uses a recent diagnostic toolkit developed by the World Bank in order to suggest some hypotheses about the factors that have been inhibiting exports and industrial production expansion. Among the latter, it is noted how service sectors, as the largest beneficiaries from favorable terms of trade, accommodated larger wage increases and "exported" cost pressures to other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, although a stronger currency can be appointed as one of the elements behind the lower competitiveness in Brazilian exports, sluggish productivity performance and a real wage uptrend explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the importance of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-gross domestic product ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital.

Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Developed Countries

Hoekman, Bernard; Ng, Francis; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.47%
Although average Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tariffs on imports from the least developed countries are very low; tariffs above 15 percent have a disproportional effect on their exports. Products subject to tariff peaks tend to be heavily concentrated in agriculture and food products and labor intensive sectors, such as apparel and footwear. Although the least developed countries benefit from preferential access, preferences tend to be smallest for tariff peak products. A major exception is the European Union, so that the recent European initiative to grant full duty free and quota free access for the least developed countries will result in only a small increase in their exports of tariff peak items. However, as preferences are less significant in other major OECD countries, a more general emulation of the European Union initiative would increase the least developed countries total exports of peak products by US dollar 2.5 billion. Although almost half of this increase is at the expense of other developing country exports...

Market Access for Developing Countries Exports

International Monetary Fund; World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
Integration into the world economy has proven a powerful instrument for countries to promote economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. Trade has been an engine of growth for the past fifty years, owing in part to eight successive rounds of multilateral trade liberalization, as well as unilateral and regional trade liberalization. The growing integration of the world economy has raised living standards and brought increased opportunity to many parts of the globe. Many developing countries have shared in this prosperity. As a group, developing countries have become much more important in world trade, and their trade relationships have changed markedly from the traditional north-south pattern. Developing countries now account for one-third of world trade, up from about a quarter in the early 1970s, and many have substantially increased their exports of manufactures and services relative to traditional commodity exports. The share of manufactures in developing country exports has risen to 80 percent; moreover...

The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade

Calì, Massimiliano; Harake, Wissam; Hassan, Fadi; Struck, Clemens
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
The devastating civil war in Syria is arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times. The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014 caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure, prevented children from going to school, closed factories and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the main channels through which the effects of the crisis are transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in neighboring countries. Moreover...

The Export-Productivity Link in Brazilian Manufacturing Firms

Cirera, X.; Lederman, D.; Máñez, J.A.; Rochina, M.E.; Sanchis, J.A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.51%
This paper explores the link between exports and total factor productivity in Brazilian manufacturing firms over the period 2000–08. The Brazilian experience is instructive, as it is a case of an economy that expanded aggregate exports significantly, but with stagnant aggregate growth in total factor productivity. The paper first estimates firm-level total factor productivity under alternative assumptions (exogenous and endogenous law of motion for productivity) following a GMM procedure. In turn, the analysis uses stochastic dominance techniques to assess whether the ex ante most productive firms are those that start exporting (self-selection hypothesis). Finally, the paper tests whether exporting boosts firms’ total factor productivity growth (learning-by-exporting hypothesis) using matching techniques to control for the possibility that selection into exports may not be a random process. The results confirm the self-selection hypothesis and show that starting to export yields additional growth in total factor productivity that emerges since the firm’s first year of exporting but lasts only one year. Further...

The Domestic Segment of Global Supply Chains in China under State Capitalism

Tang, Heiwai; Wang, Fei; Wang, Zhi
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.45%
This paper proposes methods to incorporate firm heterogeneity in the standard input-output table-based approach to portray the domestic segment of global value chains in a country. The analysis uses Chinese firm census data for the manufacturing and service sectors, along with constrained optimization techniques. The conventional input-output table is split into sub-accounts, which are used to estimate direct and indirect domestic value added in exports of different types of firms. The analysis finds that in China, state-owned enterprises and small and medium domestic private enterprises have much higher shares of indirect exports and ratios of value-added exports to gross exports compared with foreign-invested and large domestic private firms. Based on input-output tables for 2007 and 2010, the paper finds increasing value-added export ratios for all firm types, particularly for state-owned enterprises. It also finds that state-owned enterprises are consistently more upstream while small and medium domestic private enterprises are consistently more downstream within industries. These findings suggest that state-owned enterprises still play an important role in shaping China's exports.

A Second Look at the Pesticides Initiative Program : Evidence from Senegal

Jaud, Melise; Cadot, Olivier
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.44%
This paper investigates whether the Pesticides Initiative Program has significantly affected the export performance of Senegal' shorticulture industry. The authors apply two main microeconometric techniques, difference-in-differences and matching difference-in-differences, to identify the effect of the Pesticides Initiative Program on exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. They use a unique firm-level dataset containing data on sales, employment, and exports by product and destination markets, as well as firm enrolment year, over 2000-2008. The results suggest that wile the program had no significant effect on exports pooled over all products and destinations, it had a positive effect when considering fresh fruits and vegetables exports to the European Union.

Exports and International Logistics

Behar, Alberto; Manners, Phil; Nelson, Benjamin
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.41%
Do better international logistics reduce trade costs, raising a developing country's exports? Yes, but the magnitude of the effect depends on the country's size. The authors apply a gravity model that accounts for firm heterogeneity and multilateral resistance to a comprehensive new international logistics index. A one-standard deviation improvement in logistics is equivalent to a 14 percent reduction in distance. An average-sized developing country would raise exports by about 36 percent. Most countries are much smaller than average however, so the typical effect is 8 percent. This difference is chiefly due to multilateral resistance: it is bilateral trade costs relative to multilateral trade costs that matter for bilateral exports, and multilateral resistance is more important for small countries.

Agricultural Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean : Harnessing Trade to Feed the World and Promote Development

Chaherli, Nabil; Nash, John
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Commodities Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.41%
The United Nations estimates that global food demand will double by 2050, with much of that growth in developing countries. The world will have 2.3 billion more people, and given the deep transformation of growth trajectories in low-income countries, they will be increasingly affluent, with demands for more, different, and better food. While countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are quite heterogeneous in their production potential, overall they are well equipped to contribute to meeting this challenge. LAC has always maintained a strong comparative advantage in agricultural production, as indicated not only by its position as a net food exporter but also by its high comparative advantage. LAC is also well endowed in renewable water resources, with about a third of the 42,000 cubic kilometers worldwide. Per capita, LAC has the highest endowment of renewable water among developing regions, though some sub regions in LAC face higher than average scarcity. This report's in-depth look at Argentina and Brazil identifies looming logistics and policy issues that threaten to derail these locomotives of agricultural growth and some policy choices that have contributed to their success and that might be worth emulating. While LAC countries have substantially reduced the anti-export and anti-agricultural biases in their trade regimes...

Argentina : Trade Patterns and Challenges Ahead

Anos-Casero, Paloma; Rollo, Valentina
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
Argentinean export growth was impressive during the recent economic boom (2003-2007). However, decomposing export growth reveals that the extensive margin (increases in exports of existing products to existing markets) dominates, while the intensive margin (increases in exports of new products or new markets) contributes little to export growth. Argentina's trade product concentration has increased in the past 10 years, and the main export products remain overwhelmingly natural-resource intensive. The little diversification of non-primary exports limits the country s ability to weather a decline in export commodity prices. The country has had some success finding new export markets, especially in Latin America, but should seek to develop deeper trade relationships with high GDP export destinations such as the European Union and the United States. Another challenge going forward is the relatively low sophistication of exports and limited integration into the global production chains, falling behind regional competitors such as Brazil. This calls for policy measures to improve the ability of existing firms to innovate and compete successfully in global markets.

China’s Export Growth and the China Safeguard : Threats to the World Trading System?

Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.81%
Is there evidence from China's pre-WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? The authors examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product-level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001 and estimate their impact on Chinese exports to 38 alternative markets. There is no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to such alternate destinations. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.

Market Access, Supplier Access, and Africa's Manufactured Exports : An Analysis of the Role of Geography and Institutions

Elbadawi, Ibrahim; Mengistae, Taye; Zeufack, Albert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.45%
In a large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments drawn from 188 cities, average exports per establishment are smaller for African firms than for businesses in other regions. The authors show that this is mainly because, on average, African firms face more adverse economic geography and operate in poorer institutional settings. Once they control for the quality of institutions and economic geography, what in effect is a negative African dummy disappears from the firm level exports equation they estimate. One part of the effect of geography operates through Africa's lower "foreign market access:" African firms are located further away from wealthier or denser potential export markets. A second occurs through the region's lower "supplier access:" African firms face steeper input prices, partly because of their physical distance from cheaper foreign suppliers, and partly because domestic substitutes for importable inputs are more expensive. Africa's poorer institutions reduce its manufactured exports directly, as well as indirectly, by lowering foreign market access and supplier access. Both geography and institutions influence average firm level exports significantly more through their effect on the number of exporters than through their impact on how much each exporter sells in foreign markets.

Product Relatedness and Firm Exports in China

Poncet, Sandra; Starosta de Waldemar, Felipe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
This paper proposes the first evaluation using micro-level data of the gains from the consistency of activities with a local comparative advantage. Using firm-level data from Chinese customs over the 2000-6 period, the study investigates the relationship between the export performance of firms and how their products relate to local comparative advantage. The key indicator measures the density of the links between a product and the local product space. Hence, it combines information on the intrinsic relatedness of a good with information on the local pattern of specialization. The results indicate that exports grow faster for goods that have denser links with those currently produced in the firm's locality. The density of links between products seems to yield export-enhancing spillovers. However, this positive effect of product relatedness on export performance is mainly limited to ordinary trade activities and domestic firms. It is also stronger for more productive firms, suggesting that spillover diffusion may be hindered by insufficient absorptive capacity.

Micro Dynamics of Turkey's Export Boom in the 2000s

Cebeci, Tolga; Fernandes, Ana M.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.7%
This paper examines the microeconomics behind the dramatic export boom experienced by Turkey during the 2000s. Using disaggregated customs data covering the universe of export transactions for Turkey during the period 2002-2011, it characterizes firm-level dynamics in the export sector and decomposes export growth at the aggregate, sector, and destination market levels to identify the role of firm turnover, destination turnover, and product turnover. The paper shows that in the short-run, aggregate export growth is dominated by growth in continuous exporters, and for these, growth is dominated by exports to their continued destinations and of their continued products. However, the observed high degree of churning across firms, destinations, and products accounts in the long run for a substantial part of Turkey's export growth. The patterns of micro-dynamics of export growth are verified across sectors and across groups of destination markets with some exceptions regarding exports to new emerging markets where net entry by Turkish-based exporters plays a more critical role for long-run growth.

How Sensitive Are Latin American Exports to Chinese Competition in the U.S. Market?

López-Córdova, J. Ernesto; Micco, Alejandro; Molina, Danielken
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.47%
This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of U.S. imports using detailed trade data over the 1990-2003 period. The authors use a two-stage least squares framework in order to identify the elasticity parameter of interest. The authors use the elasticity estimates to assess the extent to which Latin American and Chinese goods compete in the U.S. market by providing forecasts of how alternative policy scenarios may affect exports to the United States. The analysis considers the following scenarios: (i) currency revaluation in China; (ii) elimination of U.S. tariffs on Latin American exports under a hemispheric free trade agreement; and (iii) the elimination of quotas on apparel and textile exports under the Multi-Fiber Agreement. The findings show that a 20-percent appreciation of the renminbi reduces Chinese exports to the United States by a fifth, although since other regions increase sales to that market (0.5 percent for Latin America), U.S. imports decline by only 1.7 percent. Hemispheric free trade would increase Latin America's exports to the United States by around 3 percent. The removal of the quotas would lead to a sharp increase in Chinese sales to the United States (40 percent)...

Unrestricted Market Access for Sub-Saharan Africa : How Much Is It Worth and Who Pays?

Ianchovichina, Elena; Mattoo, Aaditya; Olarreaga, Marcelo
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.73%
The European Union (EU), Japan, and the United States (US) have recently announced initiatives to improve market access for the poorest countries. The authors assess the impact on Sub-Saharan Africa of these initiatives, and others that might be taken. They find that fully unrestricted access to all the Quad countries (Canada, The EU, Japan, and the US) would produce substantial gains for Sub-Saharan Africa, leading to a fourteen percent increase in non-oil exports ($ 2.5 billion), and boosting real incomes by about one percent ($ 1.8 billion). Most of these gains would come from preferential access to the highly protected Japanese, and European agricultural markets, especially the heavily protected Japanese market for meat, and certain cereal grains. The smallness of Sub-Saharan Africa's trade ensures that the costs of trade diversion for the Quad, other developing countries, and the world, would be on the whole, negligible. One concern, however, is that preferential access to protected markets might lead Sub-Saharan Africa to produce goods in which it does not have a global comparative advantage...