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Weak and Strong Hysteresis in the Dynamics of Labor Demand

Mota, Paulo Ricardo Tavares
Fonte: Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto; FEP Publicador: Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto; FEP
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: application/pdf
POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.77%
Previous empirical studies have shown that when decisions are made under uncertainty and adjustment costs are fixed or linear in structure (non-convex), firms do not permanently adjust employment in order to accommodate demand shocks. Consequent to this, periods of inertia would emerge and that is sufficient to produce hysteresis. This dissertation studies the existence of hysteresis in the dynamic path of employment at the firm and aggregate level. Firstly, we describe the path of micro-level employment and we establish its relationship with three sources of inertia: i) the existence of non-convex costs of adjustment; ii) uncertainty concerning the dynamics of aggregate product demand; iii) utilization of the intensive margin of adjustment of the labor input (adjustment through hours per employee). Secondly, we analyze the aggregate implications of the observed micro behavior. If at the micro level models of hysteresis offer a good explanation for the empirical evidence, at the macro level it has been more difficult to identify the existence of hysteresis in the dynamics of employment. Aggregate series of employment tend to look smoother and, for that reason, they are apparently inconsistent with the presence of hysteresis. However...

Lessons for the aggregate labor market from employment and turnover patterns across workers

Mustre-del-Río, José (1983 - ); Bils, Mark
Fonte: University of Rochester Publicador: University of Rochester
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Number of Pages:xii, 107 leaves; Illustrations:ill. (some col.)
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.7%
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. of Economics, 2011.; Economists often analyze economies populated by identical agents due to their tractability. However, this practice leads to discrepancies between individual and aggregate level observations. Most prominently, these models overlook large differences in behavior and outcomes across workers. This dissertation fills this gap by examining the implications of individual employment and turnover patterns for the aggregate labor market. The first chapter of this dissertation analyzes turnover differences across workers over the business cycle and their implications for overall job duration. Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of The Youth (NLSY) 1979-2006 suggests that average (overall) job duration is pro-cyclical, once controlling for worker composition. At the exit margin, jobs ending in recessions are of systematically shorter duration than jobs ending in booms. This result however is driven by high turnover workers who disproportionately account for exits in a recession. At the entry margin, jobs starting in recessions are expected to be of shorter duration. This result is not compositional. Recessions tend to increase the likelihood of any new job ending even when accounting for worker heterogeneity. The second chapter of this dissertation explores the implications of individual labor supply heterogeneity for the aggregate labor supply elasticity. It presents a heterogeneous agent economy with indivisible labor where agents differ in their disutility of labor and market skills. The model is estimated via indirect inference using observations on average employment and wage rates across individuals in the NLSY. The elasticity of aggregate employment in the model is 0.71...

Small vs. Young Firms across the World : Contribution to Employment, Job Creation, and Growth

Ayyagari, Meghana; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Maksimovic, Vojislav
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.32%
This paper describes a unique cross-country database that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the small and medium enterprises sector to total employment, job creation, and growth in 99 countries. The authors compare and contrast the importance of small and medium enterprises to that of young firms across different economies. They find that small firms (in particular, firms with less than 100 employees) and mature firms (in particular, firms older than 10 years) have the largest shares of total employment and job creation. Small firms and young firms have higher job creation rates than large and mature firms. However, large firms and young firms have higher productivity growth. This suggests that while small firms employ a large share of workers and create most jobs in developing economies their contribution to productivity growth is not as high as that of large firms.

Assessing Interactions among Education, Social Insurance, and Labor Market Policies in a General Equilibrium Framework : An Application to Morocco

Marouani, Mohamed A.; Robalino, David A.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.61%
This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the marginal and joint impacts that alternative macroeconomic, education, and social protection policies have on the dynamics of employment and unemployment by skill level. The model introduces a disaggregated treatment of the labor market that incorporates an informal sub-sector in every sector of the economy. The analysis explicitly models the distribution of skills in the labor force by following over time sex-age cohorts across various levels of the education system and in the labor market. And it integrates a module that projects the revenues and expenditures of the pension system. The model is applied to the case of Morocco. Simulations show that even under positive assumptions regarding economic growth, unemployment rates are likely to remain close to current levels in the next decade. The paper argues that only an integrated package of policies that affect the macro-economy, the investment climate, and the education and social protection systems would allow sustainable creation of enough "good quality" jobs.

Does Employment Generation Really Matter for Poverty Reduction?

Gutierrez, Catalina; Orecchia, Carlo; Paci, Pierella; Serneels, Pieter
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
56.75%
This paper analyzes how the employment/productivity profile of growth and its sectoral pattern are correlated with poverty reduction. The authors use a sample of 104 short-run growth spells in developing countries, between 1980 and 2001. They also identify some conditions of the labor market and the economic environment that are associated with employment-intensive growth or specific sectoral growth. The results show that, in the short run, although the aggregate employment-rate intensity of growth does not matter for poverty reduction any more than the aggregate productivity intensity of growth, the sectoral pattern of employment growth and productivity growth is important. Employment-intensive growth in the secondary sector is associated with decreases in poverty, while employment-intensive growth in agriculture is correlated with poverty increases. Similarly, productivity-intensive growth in agriculture is associated with decreases in poverty. Although the study does not address causality, coincidence of these phenomena in this large sample of heterogeneous countries and periods suggests that...

Addressing the Employment Effects of the Financial Crisis : The Role of Wage Subsidies and Reduced Work Schedules

Robalino, David; Banerji, Arup
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.34%
This note briefly reviews the experiences with wage subsidies and reduced work schedules in promoting employment and avoiding the depreciation of accumulated skills and knowledge due to a temporary downturn. These policies have been adopted by many high income countries as well as some middle income countries. It is to early o comment on their impact; to date, they have not been rigorously evaluated in the context of the financial crisis. And any results will also be difficult to generalize, since much depends on local conditions and the structure of the labor market. Wage subsidies and reduced work schedules show some promise as measures that can help countries to increase the employment elasticity of growth during the recovery and avoid the depreciation of skills associated with unemployment or informal work. Wage subsidies and reduced work schedules mainly benefit formal sector workers, which represent less than 50 percent of the labor force in most middle and low income countries.

The Role of Sectoral Growth Patterns in Labor Market Development

Arias-Vazquez, Francisco Javier; Lee, Jean N.; Newhouse, David
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.61%
This paper investigates the relationship between sectoral growth patterns and employment outcomes. A broad cross-country analysis reveals that in middle-income countries, employment responds more to growth in less productive and more labor-intensive sectors. Employment in middle-income countries is susceptible to a resource curse, and grows rapidly in response to manufacturing and export manufacturing growth. Within Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico, the effects of different sectoral growth patterns are context dependent, but differences in sectoral growth effects on employment and wages are substantially reduced in states or provinces with higher measured labor mobility. Consistent with this, aggregate employment and wage effects of growth by sector are close to uniform when examined over longer time horizons, after labor has an opportunity to adjust across sectors. The results reinforce the importance of growth in more labor-intensive sectors, and suggest that job mobility may be an important mechanism to diffuse the benefits of capital-intensive growth.

Climate Change Policies and Employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Oral, Isil; Santos, Indhira; Zhang, Fan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.54%
This paper analyzes the differential impact of climate change policies on employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In particular, the paper examines (i) how vulnerable labor markets are in Eastern European and Central Asian countries to future carbon regulation, and (ii) what countries can do to mitigate some of the potential negative effects of these regulatory changes on employment. In many aspects, the nature of the shock associated with climate regulation is similar to that associated with an increase in energy prices. Constraints on carbon emissions put a price on climate-damaging activities and make hydrocarbon-based energy production and consumption more expensive. As a result, firms in energy-intensive industries may react to higher energy prices by reducing production, which in turn would lead to lower employment. In the presence of frictions in labor markets, these sector shifts will cause resources to be unemployed, at least in the short term. Using principal component analysis, the paper finds that Eastern European and Central Asian countries vary greatly in their vulnerability and adaptability of employment to carbon regulation. Since the economy takes time to adjust...

Different Dreams, Same Bed : Collecting, Using, and Interpreting Employment Statistics in Sub-Saharan Africa--The Case of Uganda

Fox, Louise; Pimhidzai, Obert
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
Employment and earnings statistics are the key link between the size and structure of economic growth and the welfare of households, which is the ultimate goal of development policy, so it is important to monitor employment outcomes consistently. A cursory review of employment data for low-income Sub-Saharan African countries shows both large gaps and improbable variation within countries over time and among countries, suggesting that low quality data are routinely reported by national statistics offices. Unfortunately, policies are formed and projects developed and implemented on the basis of these statistics. Therefore, errors of measurement could be having profound implications on the strategic priorities and policies of a country. This paper explains the improbable results observed by using data from Uganda, where the labor module contains variation both within and across surveys, to show the sensitivity of employment outcomes to survey methodology. It finds that estimates of employment outcomes are unreliable if the questionnaire did not use screening questions...

Sticky Feet : How Labor Market Frictions Shape the Impact of International Trade on Jobs and Wages

Hollweg, Claire H.; Lederman, Daniel; Rojas, Diego; Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth
Fonte: Washington, DC: World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC: World Bank
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.65%
This report analyzes the paths by which developing country labor markets adjust to permanent trade-related shocks. Trade shocks can bring about reallocation of labor between industries, but the presence of labor mobility costs implies economy-wide losses because they extend the period of economic adjustment. This report focuses primarily on the adjustment costs faced by workers after a trade shock, because of magnitude and welfare implications and policy relevance. From a policy viewpoint, understanding the relative magnitudes of labor mobility and adjustment costs can help policymakers design trade policies that are consistent with employment objectives, can be complemented by labor policies, or support programs to facilitate labor transitions, or both. To complement and validate the analysis based on structural choice models, the study designed a distinct empirical approach using reduced-form econometric estimation strategies. This approach examines the impact of structural reforms and worker displacement on labor market outcomes. This makes it possible to estimate the time required to adjust to a trade-related shock...

From complements to substitutes : structural breaks in the elasticity of substitution between paidemployment and self-employment in the US

Congregado, Emilio; Esteve, Vicente; Golpe, Antonio A.
Fonte: Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social Publicador: Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf
SPA
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
Este trabajo proporciona estimaciones de la elasticidad de sustitución entre el factor empresarial y el factor trabajo en la economía norteamericana para el period 1969-2011. Estimando la relación a largo plazo entre la ratio asalariados/autoempleados y la ratio entre las rentas salariales y empresariales y contrastando la posible existencia de cambio estructural en la relación, nuestros resultados apuntan hacia la existencia de tres regímenes caracterizados por diferentes estimaciones de la elasticidad. Nuestros resultados ayudan a entender e interpretar uno de los aspectos más intrigantes de la evolución de las tasas de autoempleo en los países desarrollados; This paper provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution between operational and managerial jobs in the US economy during the years 1969-2011. Estimating the long-term relationship between the aggregate employment/self-employment ratio and the returns from paid-employment relative to self-employment and testing for structural breaks, we report different estimates of the elasticity of substitution in each of the three regimes identified. Our results help to understand and interpret one of the most intriguing aspects in the evolution of self-employment rates in developed countries

Labor Market Flexibility and Aggregate Employment Volatility

Cabrales, Antonio; Hopenhayn, Hugo
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //1997 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.31%
Recent empirical work for the Spanish Economy indicates that after 1984, when the rules for temporary employment were significantly relaced, aggregate employment increased but has become highly volatile. The counterpart of this in the labor microvidence is a significant increase in the hazard rates for match destruction. THis paper develops a model of job creation and destruction with dismissal costs and analyses the effect of introducing a rule by which all jobs terminated within a given period of time are exempt from these costs. The model is calibrated using microevidence on registered social-security job matches for the Spanish economy.

Changes in the spatial concentration of employment across US counties : a sectoral analysis 1972–2000

Desmet, Klaus; Fafchamps, Marcel
Fonte: Oxford University Press Publicador: Oxford University Press
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2005 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.44%
Using US county data, we estimate employment growth equations to analyze how the spatial distribution of jobs has changed between 1972 and 2000. We find that total employment has become increasingly concentrated. This aggregate picture hides important sectoral differences though: whereas non-service employment has been spreading out, service jobs have clustered in areas of high aggregate employment. By controlling for employment at different distances, we explicitly take into account the spatial dimension. This allows us to conclude that the spreading out of non-service jobs has benefitted counties 20 to 70 km away from large agglomerations, whereas the concentration of services has come at the expense of jobs in the surrounding 20 kilometers.

Employment concentration across U.S. counties

Desmet, Klaus; Fafchamps, Marcel
Fonte: Elsevier Publicador: Elsevier
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/plain; application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2006 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.22%
This paper examines the spatial distribution of jobs across U.S. counties between 1970 and 2000, and investigates whether sectoral employment is becoming more or less concentrated. The existing literature has found deconcentration (convergence) of employment across urban areas. Cities only cover a small part of the U.S. though. Using county data, our results indicate that deconcentration is limited to the upper tail of the distribution. The overall picture is one of increasing concentration (divergence). While this seemingly contradicts the well documented deconcentration in manufacturing, we show that these aggregate employment dynamics are driven by services. Non-service sectors – such as manufacturing and farming – are indeed becoming more equally spread across space, but services are becoming increasingly concentrated.; Financial aid from the Spanish Ministry of Education (SEJ2005-05831), the Ramón y Cajal program, the Comunidad de Madrid (06/0096/2003), and the Fundación Ramón Areces is gratefully acknowledged

Republic of Namibia - Addressing Binding Constraints to Stimulate Broad Based Growth : A Country Economic Report

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Country Economic Memorandum; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.62%
This Country Economic Report (CER) is a contribution to the ongoing debate among decision makers and diverse stakeholders in Namibia on the outlook for sustained growth and employment creation that addresses distribution issues as well. The report addresses the following main questions. What has been the past growth and employment record and what can be learned? What are the main binding constraints to growth? What has been the impact of this growth on poverty and inequality in Namibia? What are the prospects for broad-based growth in key sectors? What key elements of an employment strategy would complement a growth strategy? It begins with a discussion of Namibia's history and background, then its growth and employment record. The next section identifies binding constraints to growth. Chapter 4 discusses poverty and inequality, while the last chapter analyzes growth prospects in agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing.

Jobs or Privileges : Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Other Urban Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.68%
This report argues that Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries face a critical choice in their quest for higher private sector growth and more jobs: promote competition, equal opportunities for all entrepreneurs and dismantle existing privileges to specific firms or risk perpetuating the current equilibrium of low job creation. The report shows that policies which lower competition in MENA also constrain private sector development and job creation. The report highlights the central role of promoting competition to stimulate private sector growth. However, there is little evidence on the political economy factors that perpetuate and or accentuate the lack of competition in the region, nor on the type of policy distortions that weaken competition and how those distortions ultimately affect job creation. This report aims to fill these gaps. It tackles the following questions: what types of firms create more jobs in MENA?; are they different from other regions?; what policies in MENA prevent the private sector from creating more jobs?; how do these policies affect competition and job creation?; and to what extent are these policies associated with privileges to politically connected firms? This report provides evidence that privileges granted to politically connected firms are associated with many of the policy distortions that the literature identifies to weaken private sector growth and job creation. This report assembles the most comprehensive firm census database ever put together for the MENA region. This allows to measure accurate characteristics of and trends in firms' demand for labor...

Fewer Jobs or Smaller Paychecks? Aggregate Crisis Impacts in Selected Middle-Income Countries

Khanna, Gaurav; Newhouse, David; Paci, Pierella
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
This paper reviews evidence from 44 middle-income countries on how the recent financial crisis affected jobs and workers' incomes. In addition to providing a rare assessment of the magnitude of the impact across several middle-income countries, the paper describes how labor markets adjusted and how the adjustments varied for different types of countries. The main finding is that the crisis affected the quality of employment more than the number of jobs. Overall, the slow-down in earning growth was considerably higher than that in employment, and the decline in gross domestic product was associated with a sharp decline in output per worker, particularly in the industrial sector. In several counties, hours per worker declined and hourly wages changed little. But both the magnitude and nature of the adjustments varied considerably across countries. For a given drop in gross domestic product, earnings declined more in countries with larger manufacturing sectors, smaller export sectors, and more stringent labor market regulations. In addition...

Making Work Pay in Nicaragua : Employment, Growth, and Poverty Reduction

Gutierrez, Catalina; Paci, Pierella; Ranzani, Marco
Fonte: Washington, DC : World Bank Publicador: Washington, DC : World Bank
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.35%
The objective of this report is to provide some policy guidelines for the fight against poverty. In particular, it hopes to be able to identify the growing sectors, as well as the constraints faced by the poor in benefiting from this growth. The report is part of a series of studies conducted within the Poverty Reduction Group (PRMPR) to foster understanding of the role of employment earnings and labor markets in shared growth. In addition, it is intended to function as a background document for the World Bank's Nicaragua Poverty Assessment 2007. The degree to which growth is able to translate into poverty reduction depends on how its benefits are distributed among different segments of society. There is little doubt that growth measured by changes in average income contributes significantly to poverty reduction. However, it is also clear that countries differ in the degree to which income growth spells have translated into poverty reduction. Although differences in the responsiveness of poverty to income growth account for a small fraction of the overall differences in poverty changes across countries...

Employment Protection Legislation and Labor Market Outcomes : Theory, Evidence and Lessons for Croatia

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Policy Note; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.53%
In response to prolonged recession, in April 2010 the Croatian Government adopted an Economic Recovery Program to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support faster recovery of the private sector. A central element of the program is revision of labor regulations to create a more dynamic labor market by ensuring labor force flexibility and job security. The goal is to increase the labor force participation rate and ensure that it has the skills and competencies required by the evolving and dynamic private sector. The Croatian Ministries of Finance and labor asked the World Bank for support in design of possible labor legislation reform. The objective of this note is to benchmark Croatia's legislation and help identify legal constraints on achieving a more dynamic and flexible labor market. Changes to employment protection legislation (EPL) can be politically difficult. They therefore need to be preceded by a public information campaign explaining their rationale and by dialogue with social partners. The central message to be conveyed to the public is that relaxing the most rigid provisions of the labor law will eventually lead to better employment prospects...

Structural Transformation and Productivity Growth in Africa; Uganda in the 2000s

Ahmed, Sabin; Mengistae, Taye; Yoshino, Yutaka; Zeufack, Albert G.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Working Paper; Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.75%
Uganda’s economy underwent significant structural change in the 2000s whereby the share of non-tradable services in aggregate employment rose by about 7 percentage points at the expense of the production of tradable goods. The process also involved a 12-percentage-point shift in employment away from small and medium enterprises and larger firms in manufacturing and commercial agriculture mainly to microenterprises in retail trade. In addition, the sectoral reallocation of labor on these two dimensions coincided with significant growth in aggregate labor productivity. However, in and of itself, the same reallocation could only have held back, rather than aid, the observed productivity gains. This was because labor was more productive throughout the period in the tradable goods sector than in the non-tradable sector. Moreover, the effect on aggregate labor productivity of the reallocation of employment between the two sectors could only have been reinforced by the impacts on the same of the rise in the employment share of microenterprises. The effect was also strengthened by a parallel employment shift across the age distribution of enterprises that raised sharply the employment share of established firms at the expense of younger ones and startups. Not only was labor consistently less productive in microenterprises than in small and medium enterprises and larger enterprises across all industries throughout the period...