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Is Fuel-Switching a No-Regrets Environmental Policy? VAR Evidence on Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption and Economic Performance in Portugal

Pereira, Alfredo Marvão; Pereira, Rui Manuel Marvão
Fonte: Universidade de Évora Publicador: Universidade de Évora
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.5%
The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities on economic activity in Portugal in order to evaluate the economic costs of policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. We find that energy consumption has a significant impact on macroeconomic activity. In fact, a one ton of oil equivalent permanent reduction in aggregate energy consumption reduces output by €6,340 over the long term, an aggregate impact which hides a wide diversity of effects for different fuel types. More importantly, and since carbon dioxide emissions are linearly related to the amounts of fuel consumed, our results allow us to estimate the costs of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from different energy sources. We estimate that marginal abatement costs for carbon dioxide are €45.62 per ton of carbon dioxide per year for coal, €66.52 for oil, €91.07 for gas, €191.13 for electricity and €254.23 for biomass. An important policy implication is that, once the overall economic costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions are considered, fuel switching is a no-regrets environmental policy capable of reducing carbon dioxide emissions without jeopardizing economic activity and indeed with the potential for generating favorable economic outcomes.

The impact of renewable energy sources on economic growth and CO2 emissions : evidence from Iberian Peninsula

Silva, Filipa Inês Gil
Fonte: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa Publicador: Instituto Universitário de Lisboa
Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Publicado em //2012 ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.46%
Dissertation submitted as partial requirement for the Master’s degree in Economics / JEL Classification: O44 - Environment and Growth; Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources; During the last years, due to a constant increase of the concern about environmental questions and an accompanying development of related policies, there has been an increase in energy production from renewable sources. In this line of thought, the aim of this dissertation is to examine the relationship between renewable energy production, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the Iberian Peninsula, using a Structural Vector Autoregressive model. The innovative contribution of this dissertation is the incorporation of oil prices, as an exogenous variable, since the increase in the price of this raw material in the international market have had very negative impacts on the economies of both countries. This study covers the sample period from 1960 to 2009 and it approaches two distinct analyses: one for aggregate energy production (TRES), considering the total of renewable energy sources; another for disaggregated energy sources, considering hydroelectricity separately from the other renewable sources, due to the high weight of the first in energy production. For the two cases...

Fiscal Implications of Climate Change

Jones, Benjamin; Keen, Michael; Strand, Jon
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.59%
This paper provides a primer on the fiscal implications of climate change, in particular the policies for responding to it. Many of the complicated challenges that arise in limiting climate change (through greenhouse gas emissions mitigation), and in dealing with the effects that remain (through adaptation to climate change impacts), are of a fiscal nature. While mitigation has the potential to raise substantial public revenue (through charges on greenhouse gas emissions), adaptation largely leads to fiscal outlays. Policies may unduly favor public spending (on technological solutions to limit emissions, and on adaptation), over policies that lead to more public revenue being raised (emissions charges). The pervasive uncertainties that surround climate change make the design of proper policy responses even more complex. This applies especially to policies for mitigation of emissions, since agreement on and international enforcement of cooperative abatement policies are exceedingly difficult to achieve...

Equity in Climate Change : An Analytical Review

Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.59%
How global emissions reduction targets can be achieved equitably is a key issue in climate change discussions. This paper presents an analytical framework to encompass contributions to the literature on equity in climate change, and highlights the consequences -- in terms of future emissions allocations -- of different approaches to equity. Progressive cuts relative to historic levels -- for example, 80 percent by industrial countries and 20 percent by developing countries -- in effect accord primacy to adjustment costs and favor large current emitters such as the United States, Canada, Australia, oil exporters, and China. In contrast, principles of equal per capita emissions, historic responsibility, and ability to pay favor some large and poor developing countries such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, but hurt industrial countries as well as many other developing countries. The principle of preserving future development opportunities has the appeal that it does not constrain developing countries in the future by a problem that they did not largely cause in the past...

An Analysis of Various Policy Instruments to Reduce Congestion, Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Beijing

Anas, Alex; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Zheng, Siqi
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.51%
Using a nested multinomial logit model of car ownership and personal travel in Beijing circa 2005, this paper compares the effectiveness of different policy instruments to reduce traffic congestion and CO2 emissions. The study shows that a congestion toll is more efficient than a fuel tax in reducing traffic congestion, whereas a fuel tax is more effective as a policy instrument for reducing gasoline consumption and emissions. An improvement in car efficiency would also reduce congestion, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions significantly; however, this policy benefits only richer households that own a car. Low-income households do better under the fuel tax policy than under the efficiency improvement and congestion toll policies. The congestion toll and fuel tax require the travel cost per mile to more than triple. The responsiveness of aggregate fuel and CO2 are, approximately, a 1 percent drop for each 10 percent rise in the money cost of a car trip.

Impacts of Policy Instruments to Reduce Congestion and Emissions from Urban Transportation : The Case of São Paulo, Brazil

Anas, Alex; Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.36%
This study examines impacts on net social benefits or economic welfare of alternative policy instruments for reducing traffic congestion and atmospheric emissions in São Paulo, Brazil. The study shows that expanding road networks, subsidizing public transit, and improving automobile fuel economy may not be as effective as suggested by economic theories because these policies could cause significant rebound effects. Although pricing instruments such as congestion tolls and fuel taxes would certainly reduce congestion and emissions, the optimal level of these instruments would steeply increase the monetary cost of travel per trip and are therefore politically difficult to implement. However, a noticeable finding is that even smaller tolls, which are more likely to be politically acceptable, have substantial benefits in terms of reducing congestion and emissions. Among the various policy instruments examined in the study, the most socially preferable policy option for São Paulo would be to introduce a mix of congestion toll and fuel taxes on automobiles and use the revenues to improve public transit systems.

Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy

Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; He, Jianwu
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.57%
There is growing clamor in industrial countries for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. The authors confirm the findings of other research that unilateral emissions cuts by industrial countries will have minimal carbon leakage effects. However, output and exports of energy-intensive manufactures are projected to decline potentially creating pressure for trade action. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content in domestic production. Their quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China s manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low and middle income countries by 8 per cent; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production...

The Impact of Policies to Control Motor Vehicle Emissions in Mumbai, India

Takeuchi, Akie; Cropper, Maureen; Bento, Antonio
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
This paper examines the impact of measures to reduce emissions from passenger transport, specifically buses, cars, and two-wheelers in Mumbai. These include converting diesel buses to compressed natural gas (CNG), as the Indian Supreme Court required in Delhi, which would necessitate an increase in bus fares to cover the cost of pollution controls. The authors model an increase in the price of gasoline, which should affect the ownership and use of cars and two-wheelers, as well as imposing a license fee on cars to retard growth in car ownership. The impact of each policy on emissions depends not only on how the policy affects the mode that is regulated, but on shifts to other modes. The results suggest that the most effective policy to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles-in terms of the total number of tons of PM10 (particulate matter that measure less than or equal to 10 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) reduced-is to convert diesel buses to CNG. The conversion of 3,391 diesel buses to CNG would result in an emissions reduction of 663 tons of PM10 a year, 14 percent of total emissions from transport. The bus conversion program passes the cost-benefit test. In contrast, the results suggest the elasticities of emissions from transport with respect to a gasoline tax and a tax on vehicle ownership are -0.04 and -0.10 respectively. As a consequence...

Green Industrial Policy : Trade and Theory

Karp, Larry; Stevenson, Megan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.63%
This paper studies the reality and the potential for green industrial policy. It provides a summary of the green industrial policies, broadly understood, for five countries. It then considers the relation between green industrial policies and trade disputes, emphasizing the Brazil-United States dispute involving ethanol and the broader United States-China dispute. The theory of public policy provides many lessons for green industrial policy. The authors highlight four of these lessons, involving the Green Paradox, the choice of quantities versus prices with endogenous investment, the coordination issues arising from emissions control, and the ability of green industrial policies to promote cooperation in reducing a global public bad like carbon emissions.

State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009

Capoor, Karan; Ambrosi, Philippe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.56%
Over the past year, the global economy has cooled significantly, a far cry from the boom just a year ago in various countries and across markets. At the same time, the scientific community communicated the heightened urgency of taking action on climate change. Policymakers at national, regional, and international levels have put forward proposals to respond to the climate challenge. The most concrete of these is the adopted European Union (EU) climate and energy package (20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020), which guarantees a level of carbon market continuity beyond 2012. The EU package, along with proposals from the U.S. and Australia, tries to address the key issues of ambition, flexibility, scope, and competitiveness. Taken together, the proposals tabled by the major industrialized countries do not match the aggregate level of annex one ambition called for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC (25-40 percent reductions below 1990). Setting targets in line with the science will send the right market signal to stimulate greater cooperation with developing countries to scale up mitigation.

Energy Intensive Infrastructure Investments with Retrofits in Continuous Time : Effects of Uncertainty on Energy Use and Carbon Emissions

Framstad, Nils Christian; Strand, Jon
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.4%
Energy-intensive infrastructure may tie up fossil energy use and carbon emissions for a long time after investments, making the structure of such investments crucial for society. Much or most of the resulting carbon emissions can often be eliminated later, through a costly retrofit. This paper studies the simultaneous decision to invest in such infrastructure, and retrofit it later, in a model where future climate damages are uncertain and follow a geometric Brownian motion process with positive drift. It shows that greater uncertainty about climate cost (for given unconditional expected costs) then delays the retrofit decision by increasing the option value of waiting to invest. Higher energy intensity is also chosen for the initial infrastructure when uncertainty is greater. These decisions are efficient given that energy and carbon prices facing the decision maker are (globally) correct, but inefficient when they are lower, which is more typical. Greater uncertainty about future climate costs will then further increase lifetime carbon emissions from the infrastructure...

A "Greenprint" for International Cooperation on Climate Change

Mattoo, Aaditya; Subramanian, Arvind
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.42%
International negotiations on climate change have been dogged by mutual recriminations between rich and poor countries, constricted by the zero-sum arithmetic of a shrinking global carbon budget, and overtaken by shifts in economic power between industrialized and developing countries. To overcome these "narrative," "adding-up," and "new world" problems, respectively, this paper proposes a new Greenprint for cooperation. First, the large dynamic emerging economies -- China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia -- must assume the mantle of leadership, offering contributions of their own and prodding the reluctant industrial countries into action. This role reversal would be consistent with the greater stakes for the dynamic emerging economies. Second, the emphasis must be on technology generation. This would allow greater consumption and production possibilities for all countries while respecting the global emissions budget that is dictated by the climate change goal of keeping average temperature rise below 2 degrees centigrade. Third...

Firm Competitiveness and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme

Chan, Hei Sing; Li, Shanjun; Zhang, Fan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.37%
The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme is the first international cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide and the largest carbon pricing regime in the world. A significant concern over the Emissions Trading Scheme has been the potential impact on the competitiveness of industry. Using data on 5,873 firms in ten European countries during 2001-2009, this paper assesses the impact on three variables through which the effects on firm competitiveness may manifest -- unit material costs, employment and revenue. The analysis focuses on the three most heavily-emitting industries under the program -- power, cement, and iron and steel. Empirical results indicate that the Emissions Trading Scheme has had different impacts across these three sectors. Although no impacts are found on any of the three variables in the cement and iron and steel industries, a positive effect is found on both material costs and revenue in the power sector. The effect on material costs likely reflects fuel-switching to reduce carbon dioxide emissions...

Lessons Learned from Linking Emissions Trading Systems

Partnership for Market Readiness
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.38%
In support of the partnership for market readiness work on helping the emergence of credible, consistent, and compatible market-based infrastructure across countries, this report reviews the lessons learned from linking greenhouse gas emissions trading systems. Two emissions trading systems (ETS) are linked if a participant in one system can use a compliance instrument (allowance or credit) issued by the administrator of either system for compliance. This report focuses on links that enable participants of both ETS to use compliance instruments from either system (bilateral links). The linked systems can adopt common compliance instruments. Or each system can retain its own compliance instruments and accept those from either ETS for compliance, possibly subject to restrictions. A bilateral link offers three potential benefits. First, it can make an ETS a viable policy option for a jurisdiction where an independent ETS will be infeasible for technical or cost reasons. Second, a bilateral link can reduce the total cost of achieving the combined emissions caps of the linked ETS. Third...

Options and Guidance for the Development of Baselines

Partnership for Market Readiness
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.43%
Developed under the auspices of the Partnership for Market Readiness (PMR) and with advice and input from its Baselines Working Group, this document offers guidance and options for the development of emissions baselines, a key component for assessing the emission reductions in in both market and non-market based mechanisms. In the context of this document, a baseline refers to a scenario that describes expected or desired greenhouse gas emissions levels and that can be used as a basis for determining the amount of emissions reductions achieved as the result of a crediting, trading, or other mechanism. This document is divided into two parts. Part one (sections two and three) presents the context for emissions baselines, introduces key concepts and terms, and describes principles, considerations, and potential trade-offs that can inform decisions in the development of robust and transparent baselines. Part two provides a step-by-step description of how guidance users , a term we use here for those using this guidance...

State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2009

Capoor, Karan; Ambrosi, Philippe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.56%
Over the past year, the global economy has cooled significantly, a far cry from the boom just a year ago in various countries and across markets. At the same time, the scientific community communicated the heightened urgency of taking action on climate change. Policymakers at national, regional, and international levels have put forward proposals to respond to the climate challenge. The most concrete of these is the adopted European Union (EU) climate and energy package (20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020), which guarantees a level of carbon market continuity beyond 2012. The EU package, along with proposals from the U.S. and Australia, tries to address the key issues of ambition, flexibility, scope, and competitiveness. Taken together, the proposals tabled by the major industrialized countries do not match the aggregate level of annex one ambition called for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC (25-40 percent reductions below 1990). Setting targets in line with the science will send the right market signal to stimulate greater cooperation with developing countries to scale up mitigation.

Economic Implications of Moving Toward Global Convergence on Emission Intensities

Timilsina, Govinda R.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.54%
One key contentious issue in climate change negotiations is the huge difference in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita between more advanced industrialized countries and other nations. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap. Simulations using a global computable general equilibrium model show that the average the carbon dioxide intensity of advanced industrialized countries would remain almost twice as high as the average for other countries in 2030, even if the former group adopted a heavy uniform carbon tax of $250/tCO2 that reduced their emissions by 57 percent from the baseline. Global emissions would fall only 18 percent, due to an increase in emissions in the other countries. This reduction may not be adequate to move toward 2050 emission levels that avoid dangerous climate change. The tax would reduce Annex I countries' gross domestic product by 2.4 percent, and global trade volume by 2 percent. The economic costs of the tax vary significantly across countries, with heavier burdens on fossil fuel intensive economies such as Russia...

The Environmental Implications of Russia's Accession to the World Trade Organization

Bohringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomas F.; Tarr, David G.; Turdyeva, Natalia
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.38%
This report investigates the environmental impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. A 10-region, 30-sector model of the Russian economy is developed. The model is innovative and more accurate empirically in that it contains foreign direct investment, imperfectly competitive sectors, and endogenous productivity effects triggered by World Trade Organization accession along with environmental emissions data in Russia for seven pollutants that are tracked for all 30 sectors in each of the 10 regions. The decomposition analysis shows that despite the fact that World Trade Organization accession allows Russia to import better technologies and reduce pollution from the "technique effect," on balance World Trade Organization accession alone will increase environmental pollution in Russia through a shift toward dirty industries (the "composition effect") and the expansion of output with its associated increase in pollution ("scale effect"). The paper assesses the costs of three types of environmental regulations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent. The paper simultaneously implements a central case scenario with each of the carbon dioxide emission reduction policy initiatives. The analysis finds that the welfare gains of World Trade Organization accession are large enough to pay for the costs of any of the three environmental abatement policies...

When Starting with the Most Expensive Option Makes Sense : Use and Misuse of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.39%
This article investigates the use of expert-based Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) to design abatement strategies. It shows that introducing inertia, in the form of the "cost in time" of available options, changes significantly the message from MACCs. With an abatement objective in cumulative emissions (e.g., emitting less than 200 GtCO2 in the 2000-2050 period), it makes sense to implement some of the more expensive options before the potential of the cheapest ones has been exhausted. With abatement targets expressed in terms of emissions at one point in time (e.g., reducing emissions by 20 percent in 2020), it can even be preferable to start with the implementation of the most expensive options if their potential is high and their inertia significant. Also, the best strategy to reach a short-term target is different depending on whether this target is the ultimate objective or there is a longer-term target. The best way to achieve Europe's goal of 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020 is different if this objective is the ultimate objective or if it is only a milestone in a trajectory toward a 75 percent reduction in 2050. The cheapest options may be sufficient to reach the 2020 target but could create a carbon-intensive lock-in and preclude deeper emission reductions by 2050. These results show that in a world without perfect foresight and perfect credibility of the long-term carbon-price signal...

Environmental Policy and Time Consistency : Emissions Taxes and Emissions Trading

Kennedy, Peter W.; Laplante, Benoit
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.66%
The authors examine policy problems related to the use of emissions taxes, and emissions trading, two market-based instruments for controlling pollution by getting regulated firms to adopt cleaner technologies. By attaching an explicit price to emissions, these instruments give firms an incentive to continually reduce their volume of emissions. Command, and-control emissions standards create incentives to adopt cleaner technologies only up to the point where the standards are no longer binding (at which point the shadow price on emissions falls to zero). But the ongoing incentives created by the market-based instruments are not necessarily right, either. Time-consistency constraints on the setting of these instruments limit the regulator's ability to set policies that lead to efficiency in adopting technology options. After examining the time-consistency properties of a Pigouvian emissions tax, and of the emissions trading, the authors find that: 1) If damage is linear, efficiency in adopting technologies involves either universal adoption of the new technology...