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Global Development Finance 2012 : External Debt of Developing Countries

World Bank
Fonte: World Bank Publicador: World Bank
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The data and analysis presented in this edition of global development finance are based on actual flows and debt related transactions for 2010 reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 129 developing countries. The reports confirm that in 2010 international capital flows to developing countries surpassed preliminary estimates and returned to their pre-crisis level of $1.1 trillion, an increase of 68 percent over the comparable figure for 2009. Private capital flows surged in 2010 driven by a massive jump in short-term debt, a strong rebound in bonds and more moderate rise in equity flows. Debt related inflows jumped almost 200 percent compared to a 25 percent increase in net equity flows. The rebound in capital flows was concentrated in a small group of 10 middle income countries where net capital inflows rose by an average of nearly 80 percent in 2010, almost double the rate of increase (44 percent) recorded by other developing countries. These 10 countries accounted for 73 percent of developing countries gross national income (GNI)...

Macroeconomic and Policy Implications of Population Aging in Brazil

Jorgensen, Ole Hagen
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of population aging in Brazil. Three alternative yet complementary methodologies are adopted, and depending on policy responses to the fiscal implications of aging, there are two main findings: First, saving rates could increase and not necessarily fall as a consequence of aging in Brazil -- thus contradicting conventional views. Second, lifetime wealth across generations could increase -- as capital deepening generates a second demographic dividend. Two policy responses to aging are emphasized: First, a structural policy response of linking mandatory retirement (or entitlement) ages to increasing life expectancy would boost labor supply and reduce the fiscal costs of aging. Second, in terms of preferable parametric policy responses, the second demographic dividend will be promoted to the highest extent by keeping taxes and debt unchanged while allowing public pensions to adjust downward. Such a policy response would keep pensions from further crowding out private saving -- thus balancing capital accumulation with intergenerational income distribution. In conclusion...

Zooming In : From Aggregate Volatility to Income Distribution

Calderón, César; Yeyati, Eduardo Levy
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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In contrast with a growing literature on the drivers of aggregate volatility in developing countries, its consequences in terms of individual incomes have received less attention. This paper looks at the impact of cyclical output fluctuations and extreme output events (crises) on unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The authors find robust evidence that aggregate volatility has a regressive, asymmetric, and non linear impact, as reflected in the strong influence of extreme output drops. The findings show that, in addition to the mitigating role of personal wealth, public expenditure and labor protection exert a similar benign effect. These findings are in line with the income substitutions view of social safety nets, and cast a new light on the value of social programs and labor market regulation in crisis prone developing countries.

An Alternative Framework for Foreign Exchange Risk Management of Sovereign Debt

Melecky, Martin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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36.45%
This paper proposes a measure of synchronization in the movements of relevant domestic and foreign fundamentals for choosing suitable currency for denomination of foreign debt. The selection of explanatory variables for exchange rate volatility is motivated using a New Keynesian Policy model. The model predicts that not only traditional optimal currency area variables, but also variables considered by the literature on currency preferences, such as money velocity, should be relevant for explaining exchange rate volatility. The findings show that measures of inflation synchronization, money velocity synchronization, and interest rate synchronization can be useful indicators for decisions on the currency denomination of foreign debt.

Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies : Using Stochastic Simulation Methods

Hostland, Doug; Karam, Philippe
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
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The authors apply stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. The authors show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult tradeoff between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.

The Little Book on External Debt 2006

World Bank
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
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The little book on external debt, a pocket edition of the Global Development Finance (GDF) 2006, volume two, summary and country tables, contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 135 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the debtor reporting system. It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe, national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. The little book on external debt, appearing for the first time this year, provides a quick reference for users of the GDF 2006 book, CD-ROM, GDF online, and electronic subscription database. The general cutoff date for data is December 2005. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt ratios can provide useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity, conclusions drawn from them will not be valid unless accompanied by careful economic evaluation.

Foreign Investment in Local Currency Bonds : Considerations for Emerging Market Public Debt Managers

Sienaert, Alex
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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Foreign investors are increasingly important participants in the local currency sovereign bond markets of developing countries. This note provides context on the overall growth of local currency sovereign debt markets in emerging markets and the growth of foreign investor participation in these markets, a short review of the relevant academic literature, and a summary of the sources of foreign demand. The note concludes with a discussion of the implications of growing foreign investor participation for the managers of public domestic debt in developing countries. The aim of the note is to provide a useful, practically-oriented primer for debt managers beginning to engage on this issue, and in particular to facilitate moving the dialogue beyond overly simple categorizations of countries as "emerging markets" and of investors as a homogeneous source of "hot money".

Debt Management Performance Assessment : Sierra Leone

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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The results of this assessment show that seven (7) indicators warranted an overall score of C or better, demonstrating compliance with the minimum requirement; these referred to the debt management strategy; evaluation of debt management operation; coordination with fiscal policy; domestic borrowing; external borrowing; debt records and debt reporting, and debt administration and data security. A total of eight (8) indicators did not meet the minimum requirement at the time of the mission. These correspond to legal framework; managerial structure; audit, coordination with monetary policy; loan guarantees and on-lending; cash-flow forecasting and balance management; segregation of duties, staff capacity and business continuity and debt reporting. The mission notes that Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, or MOFED is currently implementing reforms in the areas of public debt management and domestic debt market development, including i) designing a new comprehensive public debt law; ii) implementing the reorganization of the debt management unit in MOFED; iii) formulating and implementing a procedures manual for debt management functions in MOFED; iv) implementing connectivity between two major data bases...

Preparing for Debt Management in Ulaanbaatar : Issues to Consider

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
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This note is part of a broader technical assistance program designed to assist the City of Ulaanbaatar (UB) to improve its financial management system, assess the quality of municipal services provision, and mobilize resources from the capital markets to fund urban infrastructure. This note identifies key issues for UB to consider when putting in place an effective debt management framework prior to acquiring debt. It goes hand-in-hand with a separate "Financial Self-Assessment" that was carried out in preparation for a credit rating.

International Debt Statistics 2013

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication; Publications & Research :: Publication
ENGLISH; EN_US
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International Debt Statistics (IDS) presents data and analysis information on the external debt of developing countries for 2011, based on actual flows and debt related transactions reported to the World Bank Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by 128 developing countries. It replaces Global Development Finance, which has been discontinued, and provides users with comprehensive stock and flow data on the external debt of individual developing countries and or regional and analytical groupings. As a service to users international debt statistics also set debt flows within the broader framework of aggregate net capital flows (debt and equity) to developing countries and includes a summary analysis of trends in 2011. The remainder of the overview is organized as follows. Section one analyze the key factors driving the evolution of developing countries' debt stocks and flows in 2011. Section two describes recent trends in external debt flows to developing countries, including the financing pattern of different categories of creditors and the concentration of flows in specific countries and country groups. Section three examines the remarkable growth of private nonguaranteed debt over the course of the decade and the parallel diversification of borrowing instruments available to developing countries' private sector borrowers. Section four assesses the level of developing countries' external debt...

Mexico - Fiscal Sustainability (Vol. 1 of 2) : Executive Summary

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
ENGLISH; EN_US
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The study reviews the stabilization efforts, and successes that preceded, and have underpinned Mexico's sweeping market-oriented structural reforms since the late 1980s, anchored in strong fiscal adjustment. It seeks to support the Government's efforts, and provides a body of technical analysis, by: correcting fiscal trends for various business-cycle effects; building a simulation model to assess the sensitivity of the fiscal budget to exogenous shocks under structural scenarios; estimating the direct, and indirect potential impact on the fiscal accounts of closing public infrastructure gaps, and funding contingent liabilities; and, consolidating the financial accounts of the main public sector institutions to assess sustainability of their aggregate debt path. Following a brief review on fiscal issues, the report focuses on selected sources of fiscal instability. Chapter I questions the role of fiscal policy in determining output; the responsiveness of the fiscal policy to the business cycle; and, the "persistence" of fiscal policy vs. financing needs...

Nigeria's Growth Record : Dutch Disease or Debt Overhang?

Budina, Nina; Pang, Gaobo; van Wijnbergen, Sweder
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
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Nigeria's oil boom has not brought an end to perennial stagnation in the non-oil economy. Is this the unavoidable consequence of the resource boom or have misguided policies contributed? This paper indicates that the extreme volatility of expenditure rather than Dutch Disease effects are behind the disappointing non-oil growth record. Fiscal policies failed to smooth highly volatile oil income; on the contrary government expenditure was more volatile than oil income. The authors provide econometric evidence showing that volatility of expenditure was increased by debt overhang problems. Moreover, they also find evidence of voracity effects that exacerbated expenditure volatility prior to 1984.

Subnational Fiscal Policy in Large Developing Countries: Some Lessons from the 2008-09 Crisis for Brazil, China and India

Fardoust, Shahrokh; Ravishankar, V.J.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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In response to the Great Recession of 2008, many national governments implemented fiscal stimuli packages in 2009 and 2010 to prevent further declines in aggregate demand and to jump start their economic recovery. Where subnational governments responded with fiscal contraction, as in the United States, the impact was muted; where states/provinces also expanded expenditures, as in China and India, the impact was magnified. Increases in recurrent expenditure, which were made in Brazil and India, acted as short-term stimulants; additional public investment, as in China, appears to have had a more lasting impact on growth. Large developing countries typically exhibit high interregional inequality in levels of development and global integration, resulting in differential magnitude and timing of the crisis impact. For example, coastal states in India were affected more severely and quickly than landlocked states; revenue moved in opposite directions in the two types of state in 2009. Where fiscal stress varies widely across subnational entities...

Small States : Performance in Public Debt Management

Prasad, Abha; Pollock, Malvina; Li, Ying
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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This paper analyzes the status of public debt management performance in 17 small states through the findings of the Debt Management Performance Assessment reports. Empirical evidence indicates that the higher the quality of a country's policies and institutions, the better is its capacity to carry debt and withstand exogenous shocks. Borrowing for productive purposes can be an important element in boosting growth of gross domestic product but, conversely, excessive borrowing or poorly structured debt in terms of maturity, currency, or interest rate composition can quickly offset the positive impact, deter new foreign and domestic investment, compromise reform programs, depress growth of gross domestic product, exacerbate the challenge of meeting debt service obligations, and may induce or propagate economic crises. Arguments in favor of sound debt management are especially compelling for small states that must mitigate the particular risks to which their economies are exposed. Against this backdrop, the paper identifies aspects of debt management where small states do relatively well and those where they perform poorly...

Stress-Testing Croatian Households with Debt : Implications for Financial Stability

Zalduendo, Juan; Sugawara, Naotaka
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
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The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a household's welfare, but also increase the probability of loan default. As a result, there is a direct link between these stress-testing exercises and financial stability risks. The authors find that very few households are at risk as a result of the shocks experienced over the past few years; new vulnerable households represent about 2 percent of all households, 6 percent of households with debt, and 2-3 percent of aggregate banking system assets. This suggests that household over-indebtedness in Croatia is unlikely to become a drag on aggregate economic activity and that financial stability risks remain manageable. One caveat should be noted. Some 27-31 percent of households with debt, representing 8-9 of banking system assets, are vulnerable even before being subjected to an economic shock. Since NPLs were low before the global financial crisis, it can be argued that banks knew something about some of these households that is not captured by household budget surveys. It follows that the calculations in this paper should primarily focus on the increased vulnerability of households as a result of shocks and are likely to represent an upper bound to the financial stability risks faced by Croatia on account of household indebtedness.

Why Do Some Countries Default More Often Than Others? The Role of Institutions

Qian, Rong
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This paper examines how a country's weak institutions and polarized government can affect the likelihood of its default on sovereign debt. Using a data set of 90 countries, it shows that strong institutions are associated with fewer sovereign default crises. In addition, when institutions are weak, a more polarized government tends to default more often. To explain these findings, the author develops a model showing the dynamics between the quality of institutions, the level of government polarization and sovereign default risk. Countries default more often when they lack rules and strong institutions to curb the influence of powerful groups on government policies. That is because in a polarized government, each powerful group makes decisions without considering the impact on other groups. Simulations of the model show that more than half the cross-country variation in sovereign default frequencies can be explained by institutional quality and the degree of government polarization observed in the data.

Financial Development in Asia : Beyond Aggregate Indicators

Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
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This paper documents the major trends in financial development in Asia since the early 1990s and the spillovers to firms. It compares Asia with advanced and emerging countries and uses both aggregate and disaggregate indicators. Financial systems in Asia remain less developed than in advanced countries but more developed than in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Bond and stock markets play a larger role and institutional investors have gained importance. Nonetheless, capital-raising activity has not expanded. A few large companies capture most of the issuances. Many secondary markets remain illiquid. The public sector captures a significant share of bond markets. The largest advancements in Asia occurred in China and India. But still in these countries, few large companies use capital markets to expand and grow, becoming much larger than nonuser firms. In sum, Asia's financial systems remain less developed than aggregate measures suggest, with few spillovers to many firms.

Financing Infrastructure and Monitoring Fiscal Risks at the Subnational Level

Liu, Lili; Pradelli, Juan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
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This paper explores the building blocks of an institutional framework to govern borrowing by subnational entities to finance infrastructure investment. The framework should help in achieving sustainable financing of development needs and sound management of fiscal risks. Based on international experience, the authors suggest a minimum set of indicators for monitoring fiscal and debt developments. Recognizing the different nature and operations of the subnational entities, they propose specific indicators for special purpose vehicles and the government's general budget. The paper outlines an analytical framework to inform policy decisions concerning subnational debt limits, which are country-specific and should not be mechanically applied. Basic notions underpinning medium-term macro-fiscal frameworks and debt sustainability analyses provide effective guidance for identifying prudent levels of subnational debt. The authors argue that developing fiscal and debt indicators and setting borrowing limits should be part of a broader strategy to put in place an adequate fiscal architecture to coordinate and monitor the budgetary and borrowing policies conducted by individual subnational governments. Consistent with this general principle, they explore several areas of subnational public finance and management that need to be addressed with adequate governance structures and policy choices.

Household Debt Across the Life Course: An Analysis of the Late Baby Boomers

Tippett, Rebecca Marie
Fonte: Universidade Duke Publicador: Universidade Duke
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: 1178336 bytes; application/pdf
Publicado em //2010 EN_US
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As an aggregate, American households have shown rising debt levels over the past few decades, yet we do not understand how debt varies within households over time and what factors influence this variation in a meaningful way. To date, household debt appears predominantly as a component of measures of net worth, obscuring heterogeneity in the meaning of debt within a household. Moreover, most studies focusing specifically on indebtedness rely on cross-sectional data. In addition, no cohesive theoretical model exists to account for changing patterns of debt. This dissertation seeks to fill these gaps. Utilizing a variety of methodological approaches and drawing on longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, it adds sociological explanation to a social process that has been previously ignored and under-theorized.

First, drawing from literature in economics and sociology, I propose a dynamic, life course model of indebtedness that specifies three mechanisms driving differentiation in household indebtedness: institutional context (period), social heterogeneity, and patterned disadvantage, or structural risk. Second, I use multilevel logistic regressions to explore the association between the hypothesized mechanisms and the likelihood of holding non-collateralized debt. While experiencing negative life course risks increases the likelihood of holding debt...

The Macroeconomics of Aggregate Demand and the Price Level

Palley,Thomas I.
Fonte: UNAM, Facultad de Economía Publicador: UNAM, Facultad de Economía
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: text/html
Publicado em 01/03/2008 EN
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The effect of prices on aggregate demand (AD) is one of the most important questions in macroeconomics. The conventional assumption is that a lower price level increases ad. However, there are good reasons to believe the opposite. The monetary base on which the Pigou effect operates is small; the interest rate channel may be weak, or even blocked entirely; and Fisher debt effects are likely strong in modern financial economies with extensive credit. Moreover, increased debt burdens can unleash bankruptcy effects that destroy the banking system. This suggests Keynes was right about the price system's inability to solve deficient demand unemployment. This conclusion has enormous implications for both teaching of macroeconomics and economic policy.