Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.; Campbell, Bruce M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M.; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J.; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R.
Fonte: National Academy of SciencesPublicador: National Academy of Sciences
We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.
Climate change is likely to have significant implications for human health, particularly through alterations of the incidence, prevalence, and distribution of infectious diseases. In the context of these risks, governments in high income nations have begun developing strategies to reduce potential climate change impacts and increase health system resilience (i.e., adaptation). In this paper, we review and evaluate national-level adaptation planning in relation to infectious disease risks in 14 OECD countries with respect to “best practices” for adaptation identified in peer-reviewed literature. We find a number of limitations to current planning, including negligible consideration of the needs of vulnerable population groups, limited emphasis on local risks, and inadequate attention to implementation logistics, such as available funding and timelines for evaluation. The nature of planning documents varies widely between nations, four of which currently lack adaptation plans. In those countries where planning documents were available, adaptations were mainstreamed into existing public health programs, and prioritized a sectoral, rather than multidisciplinary, approach. The findings are consistent with other scholarship examining adaptation planning indicating an ad hoc and fragmented process...
Extreme heat is one of the most important global causes of weather-related mortality, and climate change is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves. Recent epidemiologic findings on heat-related health impacts have reinforced our understanding of mortality impacts of extreme heat and have shown a range of impacts on morbidity outcomes including cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health responses. Evidence is also emerging on temporal trends towards decreasing exposure-response, probably reflecting autonomous population adaptation. Many cities are actively engaged in the development of heat adaptation plans to reduce future health impacts. Epidemiologic research into the evolution of local heat-health responses over time can greatly aid adaptation planning for heat, prevention of adverse health outcomes among vulnerable populations, as well as evaluation of new interventions. Such research will be facilitated by the formation of research partnerships involving epidemiologists, climate scientists, and local stakeholders.
Road pricing involves charging road users a fee for the external social costs of using private vehicles. These costs typically remain unaccounted for in routine road transport operations and benefit-cost analyses. They include the costs of travel delays for other road users due to congestion, the costs of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and the health costs resulting from exposure to pollutants and road accidents. In spite of strong theoretical foundations dating back to the 1920s, road pricing remains politically difficult to implement for several reasons. These include concerns about equity impacts and the lack of alternatives to the use of private vehicles, lack of public acceptance for the idea of paying a charge for personal mobility, the administrative complexity of implementation, and the uncertain long term economic impacts of the policy. My dissertation focuses on the institutional challenges to implementation of road pricing that have not received adequate attention in literature, through three papers on the following topics. 1) Vehicle Restrictions in Four Latin American Cities: Is Congestion Pricing Possible? 2) Potential Impacts of Road Pricing on Businesses and Freight Transport: The Case of the Netherlands 3) Implications of the London Congestion Charge for Firms in Key Economic Sectors: Influencing Factors...
This paper focuses on the experience of
the national-level adaptation planning efforts and the
lessons that can be derived for more effective adaptation
from an examination of local governance of development and
natural resources. After examining national level adaptation
plans, particularly the NAPAs (National Adaptation
Programmes of Action), the paper analyzes the range of
institutional instruments and relationships visible in
contemporary decentralization reforms. The analysis derives
four important lessons for adaptation planning, with special
attention to the articulation between local and national
level adaptation processes. The paper underlines: a) the
diversity of local institutions; b) adaptation strategies,
and identifies factors that promote; c) greater
accountability; and d) greater equity in national/local relationships.
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable
countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the
nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is
susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly
during the monsoon. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy
and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of
Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs
related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few
years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national
policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this
study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better
understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and
to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The
study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon
and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative
assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of
the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The
scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the
reported costs represent a lower bound on the total
adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in
four discrete and somewhat independent components with
varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.
The Economics of Adaptation to Climate
Change (EACC) study estimates that it will cost $75 - $100
billion each year for developing countries to adapt to
climate change from 2010 to 2050 (World Bank 2009a). The
study funded by the governments of the Netherlands, United
Kingdom, and Switzerland has two specific objectives. The
first is to develop a global estimate of adaptation
coststo inform the international community s
efforts on how to tailor adequate and sustainable support
regarding new and additional resources to help vulnerable
developing countries meet adaptation costs. The second
objective is to support decision makers in developing
countries to better evaluate and assess the risks posed by
climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to
climate change. The EACC study includes a global track to
meet the first study objective and a case study track to
meet the second objective. The country track comprises seven
countries: Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ghana, Bangladesh, Vietnam,
The Plurinational State of Bolivia...
This article describes a regional approach to climate change adaption that focuses on engaging the natural resource management community. In a world tempered by increasing climatic uncertainty as a result of projected climate change, natural resource management practitioners are looking for approaches to respond through effective adaptation, yet the availability of practical tools to guide and inform their decision-making processes is limited. The social learning approach described was developed between the South Australian Government and the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board. The approach successfully engaged stakeholders and provided a foundation upon which informed adaptation planning and action could take place. Techniques ranged from direct relationship building and participatory action learning, through to a regional vulnerability analysis and the development and application of a comprehensive regional adaptation response framework to guide future decisions.; Douglas K. Bardsley, Geoffrey P. Rogers
Adaptation to climate change is an important theme in the strategy and policy of institutions around the world. Billions of dollars are allocated every year, based on cost estimates of actions to cope with, or benefit from the impacts of climate change. Costing adaptation, however, is complex, involving multiple actors with differing values and a spectrum of possible adaptation strategies and pathways. Currently, expert driven, top-down approaches dominate adaptation costing in practice. These approaches are subject to misallocation, with global funds not always reaching vulnerable communities in most need. This paper introduces an analytical framework called Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI), which provides a structured framework for multi-stakeholder planning, selection and valuation of appropriate methods of adaptation. The broader economic, social and environmental impacts of these adaptation actions are explored and valued through a participatory process. PSROI is strength-based, building local capacity and generating stakeholder buy-in. The financial valuation generated provides an additional tool for examining and prioritizing adaptation actions based on their impact. Results from a pilot of the PSROI framework in a smallholder farming community in Western Kenya provide empirical evidence for the difference between expert driven desk-based and ground-based cost estimates that involve local communities. There was an approximate 70 % reduction in the valuation of an agroforestry intervention...
Like other regions of the world, Africa
is beginning to experience the impacts of human-induced
climate change. These observed changes in climate parameters
have not occurred uniformly across Africa. Mitigation is
concerned with reducing the level of greenhouse gas
emissions in the Earth's atmosphere that are the
principal causes of climate change. Adaptation is concerned
not with prevention but, in the words of the
intergovernmental panel on climate change, with adjustments
in human and or natural systems to reduce adverse impacts or
take advantage of opportunities that may arise from it.
Information and communication technology (ICT) have had an
increasing impact on economic and social development over
the past two decades, resulting from their capacity to
generate and disseminate information, to facilitate the
coordination of different actors in and beyond government,
and to make government, business, and development processes
more efficient. ICTs also have a complex relationship with
sustainability and with the underlying cause of climate
change. This relationship can be described in terms of the
effects of ICTs: first order (direct) effects concern the
impacts which ICTs have on climate change...
The objective of this economic sector
work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a
methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively
introducing into adaptation planning processes an
appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts
for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically
in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in
Nicaragua) sought to: a) make visible climate change impacts
of various kinds on poor people; b) illustrate what poor
households, small businesses and groups in communities are
doing to cope with such climate change impacts (experienced
as increasingly variable and capricious weather patterns);
and c) identify how policy and institutional systems can
best build on local realities to develop pro-poor urban
climate change adaptation actions, particularly relating to
resilience. The report introduces an asset-based framework
to analyze the vulnerability of urban poor people to severe
weather events whose frequency or intensity climate change
may be increasing...
The climate is changing; and the Europe
and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the
consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing
warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology and more extremes,
droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires.
Already the frequency and cost of natural disasters have
risen dramatically in the region. And the concentration of
greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees that
similar or greater changes are yet to come, even if the
world completely stopped emitting carbon dioxide. Now, and
at least for the near future, ECA vulnerability is being
driven more by its existing sensitivity than by the severity
of the climate impacts. In fact, ECA already suffers from a
serious adaptation deficit even to its current climate. This
derives from a combination of socioeconomic factors and the
Soviet legacy of environmental mismanagement. This report
presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change
might mean for ECA. It starts with a discussion of emerging
best practice adaptation planning around the world and a
review of the latest climate projections. The report then
discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized
around impacts on natural resources (water...
Hands-on Energy Adaptation Toolkit
(HEAT) is an online resource that is designed to lead you
through an assessment of climate vulnerabilities and
adaptation options in your country's energy sector and
raise awareness among key stakeholders. HEAT provides an
interactive, step-by-step guide, as well as an analytical
framework and support tools, to help policymakers consult
with stakeholder groups to scope out climate risks and
vulnerabilities. It then provides guidance on developing and
selecting among options to manage, monitor, and evaluate
these risks. HEAT provides guidance on how to complete the
assessment process and explains the skills and expertise
required in the team leading the assessment-the assignment
management team. To ensure credibility when engaging
stakeholders at various stages, the assignment management
team should include experts with knowledge of the
country's energy sector, energy asset performance, the
effects of climatic and hydrological conditions on energy
services, expertise in cost-benefit analysis...
The climate is changing, and the Eastern
Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the
consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing
warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more
extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and
forest fires. This book presents an overview of what
adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe
and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging
best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a
review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses
possible actions to improve resilience organized around
impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity,
and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt'
environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built
environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter
concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of
strengthening given the changing climate: disaster
preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book
has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception...
This discussion paper provides the
analytical backdrop for a series of papers on managing
climate- and weather-related risks in China. It reviews and
synthesizes the growing literature on risk-based management
approaches to climate change adaptation and offers guidance
on a process for decision making. Managing risks from severe
weather, present-day climate variability, and future climate
change is integral to China's development. While the
effects of future climate change are deeply uncertain, this
uncertainty should not preclude action. Risk management is
in essence a process for designing, implementing, and
evaluating policies in the face of such uncertainty. The
paper begins by defining key concepts and establishes the
context for climate risk management and adaptation in China.
It then outlines a step-by-step process for a risk centered
approach to adaptation. The focus of the process is on
planning for adaptation, not policy implementation. The
papers that follow in the series take the general framework
set out by this paper and apply it to different sectors...
Set in the context of labor market restructuring, public policy reform, and blurring government/nonprofit boundaries, this study examines the functions, adaptation, and performance of Boston's three One-Stop Career Centers between 1996 and 2002-a time period encompassing distinct eras of changing policy and labor market conditions. Along with other types of labor market intermediaries (LMIs), One-Stop Career Centers have arisen as sites of organizational and institutional innovation in mediating the labor matching process. However, compared to other LMIs, much less is known about career centers' employment brokering operations. This study helps address this research gap by providing a detailed analysis of three career centers. This investigation answers three research questions related to the 1) functions; 2) adaptation; and 3) performance of career centers with differing organizational sponsorships. In doing so, the study develops a conceptual framework based on three strategic orientations-community, bureaucratic, and entrepreneurial-that helps to clarify and categorize organizational processes, change, and outcomes.; (cont.) The study finds that different strategic orientations are related to variation in organizational planning...
What is the role of planners in the planning process for new transit modes? By documenting transit-planning processes in Curitiba and Bogota from 1955-95 and 1986-2001, respectively, this work demonstrates that in both cities planners had important roles in system design, the inventive adaptation of new technologies to local conditions, the integration of newly proposed systems with existing service and, above all, mediation between political leadership and strong vested interests. Both cities put planners' roles in special context, however. First, the mayors had a firm appreciation of planning services and understood that planners needed to interact with stakeholders and politicians. Second, the mayors were strong leaders who offered planners a benchmark from which to understand the implications of stakeholders' demands. Third, these cases were framed by new technologies such as Bus Rapid Transit, which competed against rail alternatives. Fourth, because of the novelty of BRT planners had difficulty producing credible forecasts. This uncertainty forced planners to interact more with stakeholders and politicians to build credibility. Fifth, BRT offered the advantage of being highly flexible, particularly when compared to rail proposals. This flexibility allowed planners to adjust the plans in response to the feedback produced by the interaction with stakeholders and politicians. Adjusting the plans often forced planners to innovate. Within this context...
Climate change adaptation is now a core theme of Australian geographical research. Climatic risks to socio-ecosystems are unbounded and highly uncertain and as a result require learning-based approaches to generate appropriate adaptation responses. Geographical research can effectively integrate knowledge developed through the mutual learning of researchers and stakeholders within a place to help guide adaptation planning. The roles of the geographer as a social learning researcher are critically analysed within the context of climate change adaptation research undertaken to support regional natural resource management adaptation planning in South Australia. Three research roles from the social learning literature are used to frame the analysis: the organic intellectual; the advocate for social justice; and the contemporary professional academic. While the social learning helped to develop a range of experimental adaptation policies and actions, the research would have proceeded more effectively if the challenges of the approach had been initially understood. The problems which emerge from social learning research, including inevitable tensions between real-world and academic outcomes, need to be acknowledged along with any successes to prepare future geographers to facilitate learning about socio-ecological risk.; Douglas K. Bardsley
Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale...
Developing countries are starting the process of planning for climate change adaptation at the national level. One of the options available is ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), which recognizes the value of ecosystem services and biodiversity for reducing people’s vulnerability to climate change. The effectiveness of EbA is increasingly recognized and EbA options have been used by least-developed countries but only timidly. This research analyses the use of EbA in 18 national adaptation plans produced by a representative sample of developing countries across the globe. It found that all plans proposed at least some EbA measures, mostly in the coastal sector, followed by the water sector, the agriculture sector, and finally the urban sector. The extent to which EbA is used in these different sectors appears to follow the state of the literature. EbA is recognized in these plans for providing many ecosystem services linked to reduced vulnerability to climate change. Moving forward, evidence on effectiveness should be developed for the agriculture, water, urban, and to a lesser extent coastal sector. Financing of EbA should be increased for implementation, and co-benefits emphasizing the cross-cutting nature of EbA should be incorporated in the development of national plans.