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Essays in international finance

Greenwood, Jeremy (1953 - ); King, Robert G. ; Stockman, Alan C.
Fonte: University of Rochester. Publicador: University of Rochester.
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Number of Pages:viii, 141 leaves
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.16%
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. of Economics, 1982. ; Neoclassical general equilibrium models are employed in this thesis to analyze several questions of interest in international finance. In the first chapter of the thesis an intertemporal choice-theoretic model of the joint behavior of the exchange rate and the current account is constructed. The model yields a set of predictions about the relationship between movements in the exchange rate and the current account and important economic variables such as income, government spending, and the money supply. It turns out that the correlation between the exchange rate and the current account is theoretically ambiguous. In particular, the association between movements in these two variables depends in an essential manner on the nature of exogenous disturbances affecting them simultaneously. Finally, the role for an optimal monetary policy and the choice of exchange rate regime for a small open economy are discussed. In the second chapter the model employed in the first chapter is extended to allow for the inclusion of a nontraded goods sector. Also, the discussion in this chapter is focused on the balance of payments rather than the exchange rate, so as to highlight the fact that the model used in the first chapter is flexible enough to analyze either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system. This extension permits an investigation of the pattern of comovement between current account...

The Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa : A CGE Modeling Approach

Perrault, Jean-François; Savard, Luc; Estache, Antonio
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.02%
The authors constructed a standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the economic impact of increased spending on infrastructure in six African countries: Benin, Cameroon, Mali, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda. The basic elements of the model are drawn from EXTER, adjusted to accommodate infrastructure externalities. Seven sectors were considered: food crop agriculture, export agriculture, mining and oil, manufacturing, construction, private services, and public services. Four sets of simulations were conducted: baseline nonproductive investments, roads, electricity, and telecoms. For each set of simulations, five funding schemes were considered: reduced public expenditure; increased value-added taxes; increased import duties; funding from foreign aid; and increased income taxes. In general, the funding schemes had similar qualitative and quantitative effects on macro variables. For road and electricity investment, there were relatively large quantitative differences and some qualitative differences among funding schemes at the macro level. Sectoral analysis revealed further disparities among countries and investment types. The same type of investment with the same funding sources had varying effects depending on the economic structure of the sector in question. The authors find that few sectors are purely tradable or non-tradable...

The Current Account as A Dynamic Portfolio Choice Problem

Didier, Tatiana; Lowenkron, Alexandre
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
45.97%
The current account can be understood as the outcome of investment decisions made by domestic and foreign investors. These decisions can be decomposed into a portfolio rebalancing and a portfolio growth component. This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of portfolio rebalancing for the dynamics of the current account. The authors evaluate the predictions of a partial-equilibrium model of the current account with dynamic portfolio choices, in which portfolio rebalancing is driven by changes in investment opportunities. Using data for the United States and Japan, the authors find evidence supporting innovations in investment opportunities as an important mechanism to explain international capital flows.

Africa and Arab Gulf states : Divergent Development Paths and Prospects for Convergence

Fofack, Hippolyte
Fonte: Banco Mundial Publicador: Banco Mundial
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
In spite of the similarities between Sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab Gulf region (Gulf Cooperation Council states), development policies implemented in these two regions of the world have produced markedly different and even divergent outcomes. While Gulf Cooperation Council states have drawn on hydrocarbon revenues to dramatically transform their economic landscape, Sub-Saharan African countries have exhibited abysmal economic and social outcomes. The remarkable increase in personal income and large current account surpluses in Arab Gulf states is in sharp contrast with widespread poverty and recurrent balance of payments crises in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reviews the possible causes of these divergent development paths and discusses the prospects for economic convergence in the new globalization landscape of growing trade ties between the two regions. In particular, it shows that development models underpinned by institutional continuity and intergenerational accountability could enhance long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and income convergence between the two regions.

The Crisis in the Euro Zone : Did the Euro Contribute to the Evolution of the Crisis?

Lin, Justin Yifu; Treichel, Volker
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
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36.25%
The simmering sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Zone represents a looming threat to the recovery of the world economy and could lead to a renewed global financial crisis. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the root causes of the crisis in Europe and assess the extent to which it was driven by the global financial crisis and by factors internal to Europe, notably the adoption of the common currency. Adoption of the euro led to convergence of interest rates in periphery countries to the levels in core countries and, in combination with rising capital inflows owing to greater financial integration, set off a consumption and real estate boom in periphery countries, leading to higher growth and increases in government revenue and spending. The resulting real appreciation led to a loss of competitiveness in periphery countries, adversely affecting export performance and causing rising current account imbalances. While the fiscal position remained manageable before the crisis owing to rising revenue, the recession brought about by the global financial crisis led to the burst of real estate bubbles and a financial sector crisis and to sharply increased budget deficits and worsened debt indicators and triggered the sovereign debt crisis. Core countries...

Macroeconomic Context and Fiscal Policy Design : Europe and Central Asia during 2000–2012

Islam, Roumeen
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publicador: World Bank, Washington, D.C.
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
This paper examines the interaction between fiscal policy and the broader macroeconomic context in open economies. It asks two questions. First, what was the relationship between fiscal policy and current account balances in countries in Europe and Central Asia during the past dozen years? Second, how might changes in (a) output composition and (b) financial sector profitability affect revenues and thus, the assessment of the underlying structural fiscal balance? The study finds that, for flexible exchange rate countries, expansionary fiscal policy has been associated with wider current account deficits. Moreover, changes in net exports and in financial sector profitability may have significant impacts on fiscal balances because of changes in revenues from the value-added tax and the corporate profits tax as a share of gross domestic product. These findings suggest that the countries of Europe and Central Asia have reason to be prudent in terms of fiscal policy choices, even as gross domestic product rises.

Growth and Competitiveness as Factors of Eurozone External Imbalances : Evidence and Policy Implications

Diaz Sanchez, Jose Luis; Varoudakis, Aristomene
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
The paper assesses the contribution of key factors associated with external imbalances in the Eurozone through the estimation of a panel-data vector autoregressive model over 1975-2011. Growth fluctuations, initially associated with demand booms triggered by unusually low interest rates and later with demand contractions resulting from the crisis and policy adjustments, have been key drivers of current account fluctuations. Changes in competitiveness, measured by real exchange rates or unit labor costs, have played a less important role. Demand shocks have contributed more to current account balance dynamics in the Eurozone periphery than in the core, whereas competitiveness has been a less prominent factor in the periphery but relatively more important in the core. Changes in competitiveness are positively associated with changes in growth. Preventing imbalances from building up in a context of growing financial integration and easy finance warrants enhanced mutual surveillance of fiscal imbalances, but also better regulation of credit markets to prevent excess leverage and concentration of lending in investments prone to speculative bubbles. Coordination of fiscal policy across the Eurozone would facilitate the management of external imbalances without placing an often unwarranted burden on fiscal tightening in countries with sound fiscal positions affected by credit booms. The policies of internal devaluation implemented in the periphery...

Yemen : Economic Monitoring Report

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.11%
Decelerating Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth widening primary non-oil fiscal deficit persisting double digit inflation and rapidly dwindling current account surpluses characterize the weaknesses in the Yemeni economy. Decline in oil production is proving to be an important turning point in Yemen s economic development. With the annual growth of GDP projected around percent for the second year in a row Yemen s per capita GDP is set to decline again in 2005. Underlying primary non-oil fiscal deficit continued to widen to 27 percent of GDP in 2004, reflecting the poor resource mobilization efforts. Inflation has persisted near 12 percent annual rate in the last two years and the inevitable revisions to petroleum prices and introduction of general sales tax will call for tighter monetary management to contain inflation in 2005. The buffer of foreign exchange reserves that the government has built to US $ 5 billion from high oil prices by end 2004 (some months of imports equivalent), could only provide a temporary cushion against erosion of current account balance.

Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries

Calderon, Cesar; Chong, Alberto; Loayza, Norman
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.11%
The authors examine the empirical links between current account deficits and a broad set of economic variables proposed in the literature. To accomplish this, they complement and extend previous research by using a large, consistent set of macroeconomic data on public and private domestic savings, external savings, and national income variables; focusing on developing economies by drawing on a panel data set for 44 developing countries and annual information for the period 1966-95; adopting a reduced-form approach rather than holding to a particular structural model; distinguishing between within-country and cross-country effects; and employing a class of estimators that controls for the problems of simultaneity and reverse causation. Among their findings: Current account deficits in developing countries are moderately persistent. A rise in domestic output growth generates a larger current account deficit. Increases in savings rates have a positive effect on the current account. Shocks that increase the terms of trade or cause the real exchange rate to appreciate are linked with higher current account deficits. Either higher growth rates in industrial economies or higher international interest rates reduce the current account deficit in developing economies.

Hegelian Macroeconomics : The Dialectics of Global Imbalances

Monga, Celestin
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.29%
Traditional narratives of external imbalances have focused on the analysis of national accounts, trade flows, and financial flows. They have generated two opposing views of the current situation of the world economy: on one side, a prudent, if not pessimistic view considers large imbalances as evidence of problems with the international monetary and financial system, and symptoms of domestic distortions (mainly in the United States and China). On the other side, a relaxed, if not optimistic view suggests that global imbalances are not anomalies but simply the predictable outcome of a world with increasingly globalized financial flows in search of the right mix of risks and returns. The former view prescribes that the two largest countries in the world rebalance their economies to avoid the potentially painful cost of disruption and adjustment. The latter contends that global imbalances will be corrected through time by the normal functioning of market forces. This paper offers a critical analysis of these competing explanations of the United States-China imbalances and suggests a way of reconciling them. Starting with an exploration of the accounting frameworks that underpin any discussion of current account deficits and surpluses...

Mongolia Economic Update, December 2014

Lee, Taehyun; Shiilegmaa, Altantsetseg; Batsuuri, Davaadalai
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
In 2014, economic growth slowed as it began to adjust to unsustainable economic imbalances. Real GDP growth softened to 7 percent in the first 9 months, from 12.8 percent in the previous year. Despite strong mining production growth of 26 percent, the growth of the non-mining sector of the economy dropped to 2 percent in the third quarter from 17.4 percent a year ago. Investment sharply fell amidst declining FDI and weakening business prospects. Consumption remains relatively strong but is also gradually softening. The growth effect from stimulus measures of the last year is also wearing off in 2014 as large liquidity support from the central bank cannot be sustained in the wake of high inflation and external vulnerabilities. The current account deficit is narrowing significantly to around 11 percent of GDP from almost 30 percent in the previous three years, due to import contraction over 16 percent and stronger copper exports. However, a significant external financing gap continues amidst declining foreign investment...

Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.23%
The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro...

Indonesia Current Account Assessment

Nedeljkovic, Milan; Varela, Gonzalo; Savini Zangrandi, Michele
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.24%
The analysis presented in this report suggests that Indonesia’s recent current account deficit results from the interaction of short, medium and long run factors that can be grouped into four blocks: external shocks, domestic policies, international integration, and stage of development and demographics.

Russian Economic Report, No. 29, Spring 2013 : Recovery and Beyond

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net exports, negative base effects, and destocking at the end of the year. More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, the world economy remains sluggish. Industrial production lost momentum throughout last year, exports expanded only at a moderate pace, and imports even declined for three month during autumn 2012. Growth declined mainly due to weaker performance of investment. Inventories were flat as the restocking cycle after the crisis came to an end, and fixed investment expanded only moderately as business remained cautious about future prospects. The weaker performance of the tradable sectors reflects sluggish global demand and the poor agricultural harvest but also low competitiveness in parts of the industry, as growth declined for all three subsectors. The capital account strengthened in 2012 as net capital outflows decreased. According to preliminary estimates...

Moderating Risks, Bolstering Growth

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: General Economy, Macroeconomics and Growth Study; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
Half a year ago, Russia's economic prospects looked uncertain. The global economy was losing momentum, the expansion in the euro area was grinding to a halt and commodity prices were beginning to fall. Yet, while output growth is slowing this year in line with weaker growth in Europe and elsewhere, Russia's latest economy performance has been solid, though aided by favorable oil prices. The economy returned to the pre-crisis peak towards the end of last year, supported by strong consumption, as growth held steady at the same rate as in 2010. In 2011, measured in current dollars, Russia's economy was the ninth biggest in the world, compared to the eleventh biggest in 2007. This year, Russia's output might exceed US$2 trillion. Equalizing for prices difference with purchasing power parity, Russia's economy is already the sixth biggest today. The current account looks strong thanks to a large surplus in the trade balance, and the Central Bank of Russia added again in 2011 to its stock of foreign reserves. Employment returned to pre-crisis levels even earlier than output...

South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 5 : Slow Road to Recovery; Spor put ka napretku Rimekembja e ngadalte

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling; Economic & Sector Work
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.23%
The South East Europe (SEE6) region exited from recession in the first half of 2013, supported by a nascent recovery in the Euro area. Industry-especially manufacturing exports and energy drove the recovery. The region experienced a welcome surge in exports in 2013, particularly car exports from Serbia. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Unemployment in the region, at about 24 percent on average, began to decline in the first half of 2013 from its peak crisis levels. While employment grew in Albania, FYR Macedonia and Montenegro, it remained depressed in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But even where employment has recovered meaningfully since 2010, the gains were not broad-based and mostly concentrated in services Near-term economic growth will be too weak to support substantial gains in employment. Weak domestic demand depressed imports in all countries but Serbia...

Toolkit for the Analysis of Current Account Imbalances

Cusolito, Ana Paula; Nedeljkovic, Milan
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.27%
The fluctuating economies and differing experiences of countries before and after the economic crisis of 2008 indicate a complex network of possible influences. Persistent current account deficits and exchange rate misalignments frequently presage disruptive economic trends. The result can be external crises, exchange rate collapses, vulnerability to sudden stops, current account reversals, and economic slowdowns. When a growing number of countries run external deficits, investigation of the causes is warranted. It is crucial to understand the drivers of persistent current account deficits; the relative importance of cyclical and structural factors; conditions that imply external sustainability; sources of sustainable financing for the deficit; and steps governments can take to narrow the imbalance. This toolkit presents a framework that can be used to assess a country's external situation through the lens of the current and financial accounts. The framework is divided into three components: current account outcome analysis...

Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?

Bugamelli, Matteo; Paternò, Francesco
Fonte: World Bank, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.1%
The authors combine the literature on financial crises in emerging markets and developing economies with that on international migrations by investigating whether the increasingly large flows of workers' remittances can help reduce the probability of current account reversals. The rationale for this stands in the great stability and low cyclicality of remittances as compared with other private capital flows: these properties, combined with the fact that remittances are cheap inflows of foreign currencies, might reduce the probability that foreign investors suddenly flee out of emerging markets and developing economies and trigger a dramatic current account adjustment. The authors find that remittances can have such a beneficial effect. In particular, they show that a high level of remittances, as a ratio of GDP, makes the relationship between a decreasing stock of international reserves (over GDP) and a higher probability of current account crises less stringent. The same occurs, though less neatly, for the positive relationship between an increasing stock of external debt (over GDP) and the probability of current account reversals. The results point also to a threshold effect of remittances: the mechanisms just described are, in fact...

From Tapering to Tightening : The Impact of the Fed's Exit on India

Basu, Kaushik; Eichengreen, Barry; Gupta, Poonam
Fonte: World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publicador: World Bank Group, Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper; Publications & Research
ENGLISH; EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.21%
The "tapering talk" starting on May 22, 2013, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke first spoke of the possibility of the U.S. central bank reducing its security purchases, had a sharp negative impact on emerging markets. India was among those hardest hit. The rupee depreciated by 18 percent at one point, causing concerns that the country was heading toward a financial crisis. This paper contends that India was adversely impacted because it had received large capital flows in prior years and had large and liquid financial markets that were a convenient target for investors seeking to rebalance away from emerging markets. In addition, India's macroeconomic conditions had weakened in prior years, which rendered the economy vulnerable to capital outflows and limited the policy room for maneuver. The paper finds that the measures adopted to handle the impact of the tapering talk were not effective in stabilizing the financial markets and restoring confidence, implying that there may not be any easy choices when a country is caught in the midst of rebalancing of global portfolios. The authors suggest putting in place a medium-term policy framework that limits vulnerabilities in advance...

World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2013 : A Fine Balance

World Bank
Fonte: Washington, DC Publicador: Washington, DC
Tipo: Publications & Research :: Publication
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
46.19%
The developing economies of the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region grew by 7.5 percent in 2012, lower than the 8.3 percent growth recorded in 2011, but still higher than that of any other region. Within the region, available data in the first quarter of the year indicate that external weakness may be abating, while domestic demand remains resilient. The expectation of some stabilization in external demand, coupled with still resilient domestic activity, may be showing in the industrial production and purchasing manager's index numbers, which are generally positive. The growth forecasts for EAP for 2013 and 2014 remain roughly similar to those of December last year. Both the global and regional outlooks are subject to several risks, most of which are by now familiar. Though the developing economies of East Asia are generally well-prepared to absorb external shocks, an emerging concern is the risk of over-heating in some of the larger economies in the region. Policy makers in developing EAP should strive to strike the right balance between managing the near-term risks, and sustaining and increasing inclusive growth in the medium-term by enhancing the underlying productive capacity-human and physical-of these economies.