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Modeling to Predict Cases of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in Chile

Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Ramakrishnan, Naren; Marathe, Madhav V.; Brownstein, John S.
Fonte: Public Library of Science Publicador: Public Library of Science
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Background: Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a life threatening disease transmitted by the rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus in Chile. Hantavirus outbreaks are typically small and geographically confined. Several studies have estimated risk based on spatial and temporal distribution of cases in relation to climate and environmental variables, but few have considered climatological modeling of HPS incidence for monitoring and forecasting purposes. Methodology Monthly counts of confirmed HPS cases were obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health for 2001–2012. There were an estimated 667 confirmed HPS cases. The data suggested a seasonal trend, which appeared to correlate with changes in climatological variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity. We considered several Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models and regression models with ARIMA errors with one or a combination of these climate variables as covariates. We adopted an information-theoretic approach to model ranking and selection. Data from 2001–2009 were used in fitting and data from January 2010 to December 2012 were used for one-step-ahead predictions. Results: We focused on six models. In a baseline model, future HPS cases were forecasted from previous incidence; the other models included climate variables as covariates. The baseline model had a Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) of 444.98...

System Validation via Constraint Modeling

Waters, Richard C.
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Formato: 19 p.; 4031325 bytes; 1582417 bytes; application/postscript; application/pdf
EN_US
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Constraint modeling could be a very important system validation method, because its abilities are complementary to both testing and code inspection. In particular, even though the ability of constraint modeling to find errors is limited by the simplifications which are introduced when making a constraint model, constraint modeling can locate important classes of errors which are caused by non-local faults (i.e., are hard to find with code inspection) and manifest themselves as failures only in unusual situations (i.e., are hard to find with testing).

2.141 Modeling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems, Fall 2002; Modeling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems

Hogan, Neville John
Fonte: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EN-US
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Mathematical modeling of complex engineering systems at a level of detail compatible with the design and implementation of modern control systems. Wave-like and diffusive energy transmission systems. Multiport energy storing fields and dissipative fields; consequences of symmetry and asymmetry. Nonlinear mechanics and canonical transformation theory. Examples will include mechanisms, electromechanical transducers, electronic systems, fluid systems, thermal systems, compressible flow processes, chemical processes. Description from course home page: This course deals with modeling multi-domain engineering systems at a level of detail suitable for design and control system implementation. Topics covered include network representation, state-space models; multi-port energy storage and dissipation, Legendre transforms, nonlinear mechanics, transformation theory, Lagrangian and Hamiltonian forms and control-relevant properties. Application examples may include electro-mechanical transducers, mechanisms, electronics, fluid and thermal systems, compressible flow, chemical processes, diffusion, and wave transmission.

The dynamics of oceanic transform faults : constraints from geophysical, geochemical, and geodynamical modeling

Gregg, Patricia Michelle Marie
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 133 p.
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Segmentation and crustal accretion at oceanic transform fault systems are investigated through a combination of geophysical data analysis and geodynamical and geochemical modeling. Chapter 1 examines the effect of fault segmentation on the maximum predicted earthquake magnitude of an oceanic transform fault system. Results of thermal modeling suggest that fault segmentation by intra- transform spreading centers (ITSC) drastically reduces the available brittle area of a transform fault and thus limits the available earthquake rupture area. Coulomb stress models suggest that long ITSCs will prohibit static stress interaction between segments of a transform system and further limit the maximum possible magnitude of a given transform fault earthquake. In Chapter 2, gravity anomalies from a global set of oceanic transform fault systems are investigated. Surprisingly, negative residual mantle Bouguer gravity anomalies are found within fast-slipping transform fault domains. These gravity observations suggest a mass deficit within fast-slipping transform faults, which may result from porosity variations, mantle serpentinization, and/or crustal thickness variations. Two-dimensional forward modeling and the correlation of the negative gravity anomalies to bathymetric highs indicate crustal thickness excesses in these locations. Finally...

Musical sound synthesis and a new music representation based on empirical physical modeling of musical instruments

Dong, Xiaoxiao ; Bocko, Mark Frederick (1956 - )
Fonte: University of Rochester Publicador: University of Rochester
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: Number of Pages:xi, 163 leaves
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Rochester. Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2008.; A digital implementation of an empirical physical modeling scheme is presented with the goal of creating a new form of music capture and re-synthesis with high fidelity and compression ratio. Research was conducted on two complementary aspects. The first was physical modeling synthesis that incorporates precise acoustical measurements of real musical instruments and computer simulation of models based on this empirical data. The second is physical modeling based analysis that is targeted at physically motivated low bandwidth control parameters extraction and sound re-synthesis. For practical reasons, a B-flat clarinet is chosen as the study object, but our approach may be similarly applied to other musical instruments. All algorithms and measurements are described in detail.

Multilevel Modeling of ARDS Mortality Predictors

Graves, Brian T. ; Carno, Margaret Ann
Fonte: Universidade de Rochester Publicador: Universidade de Rochester
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Rochester. School of Nursing. Dept. of Nursing, 2012.; Background The Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is associated with acute and persistent lung inflammation. Incidence and mortality is high, extensive complex critical care is often required, and ARDS contributes to a substantial portion of health care costs. Nested data is most often the source for ARDS research requiring specific analytical methodologies to avoid statistical errors. Absence of a mortality prediction model has hindered improvement in ARDS outcomes. Objective To build and statistically test a more accurate and parsimonious evidence-based model that explains the influence of patient, ICU, and hospital level variables on ARDS patient ICU and hospital mortality. Design and Sample Retrospective, exploratory, non-randomized analysis of a secondary database of critically ill patients (Project IMPACT Critical Care Medicine) during the first 24 hours of ICU admission. 11,096 patients in 133 ICU’s representing 97 hospitals were used in the analysis. Methods Univariate analysis followed by leveled logistic regression was used to build the final ICU mortality and hospital mortality models. The statistical methods used to analyze the final models were Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling (HGLM) and logistic regression. Multilevel Modeling vi Results Three-level and full two-level HGLM models could not be analyzed due to sample size. HGLM identified type I error in the hospital mortality model logistic regression analysis ICU type vector Medical Surgical compared to Medical. Hospital level variables were not associated with hospital mortality. ICU and hospital level variables were associated with ICU mortality. Examples include: Surgical and Medical/Surgical ICU’s association with decreased patient mortality and Critical Care Provider led ICU models association with increased patient mortality. Increasing APACHE II scores and treatment with inotropes were associated with increased patient mortality. Significance Knowledge obtained may help: 1) identify more rigorous statistical approaches to prediction modeling in large nested datasets; 2) clinicians identify variables for goal directed therapy; 3) influence specifically targeted therapeutic strategies; 4) identify hospital and ICU level staffing and systems requirements necessary for achieving the best possible outcomes for ARDS patients; and 5) stratify subjects for future ARDS research. Limitations include the retrospective exploratory design...

O efeito da escala espacial no modelamento hidrológico; Effect of the spatial scale in the hydrological modeling

SILVA, Claudio Rodrigues da
Fonte: Universidade Federal de Goiás; BR; UFG; Mestrado em Engenharia do Meio Ambiente; Engenharias Publicador: Universidade Federal de Goiás; BR; UFG; Mestrado em Engenharia do Meio Ambiente; Engenharias
Tipo: Dissertação Formato: application/pdf
POR
Relevância na Pesquisa
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This study presents the results of the analysis of the effect of the spatial scale in the hydrologic modeling. Nine watersheds were delimited in three different spatial scales: small (Capão da Onça River Basin), middle (Areias River Basin) and large (Corrente River Basin). The physiographic characteristics, area, length of the main river and slope of the river were obtained from digital cartographic maps in the three available scales for Goiás, 1:1.000.000, 1:250.000 and 1:100.000, using tools of Geographic Information Systems. The physical data of the basins were used as input in the hydrologic model - HEC HMS version 3.3 - developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, projected to simulate the precipitation-runoff process in a watershed. After the simulation procedures and calibration of the model, the study shows that data obtained from different cartographic scales little influence the final result of the modeling in the three analyzed spatial scales. It was also evidenced that the modeling presented better results in the middle scale with a better adjustment between the observed and calculated hydrographs.; Este estudo apresenta os resultados da análise do efeito da escala espacial na modelagem hidrológica. Para isto foram delimitadas bacias hidrográficas em três diferentes escalas espaciais: pequena (Bacia do Córrego Capão da Onça)...

An Eigenfunction Approach for Volatility Modeling.

MEDDAHI, Nour
Fonte: Université de Montréal Publicador: Université de Montréal
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica Formato: 2523603 bytes; application/pdf
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In this paper, we introduce a new approach for volatility modeling in discrete and continuous time. We follow the stochastic volatility literature by assuming that the variance is a function of a state variable. However, instead of assuming that the loading function is ad hoc (e.g., exponential or affine), we assume that it is a linear combination of the eigenfunctions of the conditional expectation (resp. infinitesimal generator) operator associated to the state variable in discrete (resp. continuous) time. Special examples are the popular log-normal and square-root models where the eigenfunctions are the Hermite and Laguerre polynomials respectively. The eigenfunction approach has at least six advantages: i) it is general since any square integrable function may be written as a linear combination of the eigenfunctions; ii) the orthogonality of the eigenfunctions leads to the traditional interpretations of the linear principal components analysis; iii) the implied dynamics of the variance and squared return processes are ARMA and, hence, simple for forecasting and inference purposes; (iv) more importantly, this generates fat tails for the variance and returns processes; v) in contrast to popular models, the variance of the variance is a flexible function of the variance; vi) these models are closed under temporal aggregation.; Dans cet article...

Feature-modeling and aspect-oriented programming: integration and automation.

Lee, Kwanwoo; Botterweck, Goetz; Thiel, Steffen
Fonte: IEEE Computer Society Publicador: IEEE Computer Society
Tipo: Conference item; all_ul_research; ul_published_reviewed; none
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
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peer-reviewed; Feature modeling is an essential activity for modeling and managing the variability of a software product line. On the other hand, aspect-oriented programming provides effective means for modularizing feature implementation. Although current AOP tools (e.g., AJDT) provide a mechanism for switching aspect modules on and off to configure a product,this becomes infeasible in the context of large-scale product lines with thousands of variations. In this paper, we describe how feature modeling can be integrated with aspect-oriented programming to perform automated product derivation efficiently and effectively in the context of large-scale product lines.

Il Reverse Modeling per il progetto di design; Problemi, Metodi e Tecniche di conversione della rappresentazione numerica nella rappresentazione matematica

CALVANO, MICHELE
Fonte: La Sapienza Universidade de Roma Publicador: La Sapienza Universidade de Roma
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
IT
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Reverse Modelling (RM) is the process that makes it possible to deduce the representation of the of physical model’s shape by digital acquisition. The aim of the process can be various, in design it can be used both for restyling operations and for more strictly design operations. Today, methodologies and techniques used don’t follow standard procedures, in some cases craft operations are prevailing, in other cases actions aim to the highest strictness to reach extreme accuracy in the result. In the design process of the object, RM has a further task: working out the existing detachment between prototype and projected model, taking an active role in the ideational path of the object. Only an experimental applicative research allows analyzing problems, methods and techniques of commutation from a numerical model (cloud of points, survey) to a mathematical model (digital project). The study’s goal is to solve problems in the RM process applied to the design project. The experience was carried out making use of new potentialities given by digital devices, used to integrate the typical tools of design and descriptive geometry in their most contemporary acceptation. The research has led also to alternative results compared to today’s computational techniques used in the resolving procedures of the problem. The research was dealt with a systematic methodology...

Uso de la metodología BrIM (Bridge Information Modeling) como herramientapara la planificación de la construcción de un puente de concreto en Colombia

Gaitán Cardona, Juan Sebastián
Fonte: Pontifícia Universidade Javeriana Publicador: Pontifícia Universidade Javeriana
Tipo: bachelorThesis; Trabajo de Grado Pregrado Formato: pdf
Relevância na Pesquisa
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El objetivo de este trabajo es conocer la experiencia del uso de innovadoras metodologías para la planificación de la construcción de un puente de concreto en Colombia. El resultado esperado es la obtención de experiencia y conocimiento en el uso de la metodología BrIM, con el objetivo de mejor el rendimiento y desarrollo de la planificación constructiva de este tipo de estructura. La elaboración del proyecto se dividió en tres etapas: la construcción del modelo conceptual en Autodesk Revit Structure, la simulación del proceso constructivo en Autodesk Navisworks, y la cuantificación de materiales y costos en Autodesk Quantity Takeoff. La conclusión obtenida fue que, el modelado de información se puede convertir en una herramienta valiosa para la planificación, diseño y construcción de puentes de diferentes tipologías, pero es necesario tener bases estructuradas sobre el uso del software y experiencia en la representación y dibujo de los componentes del puente, con el fin de satisfacer las necesidades de la industria constructora, que son: mejorar la calidad, reducir costos, dando herramientas para un control adecuado de la construcción, acortando los tiempos de diseño y producción.; The objective of this study was to determine the experience of using innovative methodologies for planning the construction of a concrete bridge in Colombia. The expected result is to obtainknowledge and experience in the use of BrIM methodology...

Toward a reliable decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling: Characterizing rainfall errors using conditional simulation

Renard, B.; Kavetski, D.; Leblois, E.; Thyer, M.; Kuczera, G.; Franks, S.
Fonte: Amer Geophysical Union Publicador: Amer Geophysical Union
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
Publicado em //2011 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
This study explores the decomposition of predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling into its contributing sources. This is pursued by developing data-based probability models describing uncertainties in rainfall and runoff data and incorporating them into the Bayesian total error analysis methodology (BATEA). A case study based on the Yzeron catchment (France) and the conceptual rainfall-runoff model GR4J is presented. It exploits a calibration period where dense rain gauge data are available to characterize the uncertainty in the catchment average rainfall using geostatistical conditional simulation. The inclusion of information about rainfall and runoff data uncertainties overcomes ill-posedness problems and enables simultaneous estimation of forcing and structural errors as part of the Bayesian inference. This yields more reliable predictions than approaches that ignore or lump different sources of uncertainty in a simplistic way (e.g., standard least squares). It is shown that independently derived data quality estimates are needed to decompose the total uncertainty in the runoff predictions into the individual contributions of rainfall, runoff, and structural errors. In this case study, the total predictive uncertainty appears dominated by structural errors. Although further research is needed to interpret and verify this decomposition...

Model driven support for the Service oriented architecture Modeling Language

Ali, N.; Nellipaiappan, R.; Chandran, R.; Babar, M.A.
Fonte: ACM Publicador: ACM
Tipo: Conference paper
Publicado em //2010 EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an architectural style that is widely used in distributed and dynamic systems. The Service oriented architecture Modeling Language (SoaML) is an OMG standard for modelling SOA independent of a technology. This paper presents a tool for modelling SOA using SoaML and generating OSGi Declarative Services Models from SoaML models. SoaML metamodel has been implemented as an Ecore model using the Eclipse Modeling Framework (EMF). An Eclipse plug-in that allows architects to graphically design SoaML models has been developed using the Graphical Modeling Framework (GMF). We have also implemented a model transformation using ATLAS Transformation Language (ATL) in order to partially generate Declarative Services models. The generated model is used as a Declarative Services Component Description XML specification which is needed to execute code on the OSGi service oriented platform. In this way, we provide SoaML with Model Driven Architecture support.; Nour Ali, Rukmani Nellipaiappan, Rajalaxmi Chandran, Muhammad Ali Babar; This workshop was conducted as part of the ACM/IEEE 32nd International Conference on Software Engineering.

Isotopic Evolution of Groundwater Organic Contaminants: Experimental Investigation and Modeling Approaches; Isotopenentwicklung von organischen Schadstoffen im Grundwasser: Experimentelle Untersuchungen und Modellierungsansätze

Jin, Biao
Fonte: Universidade de Tubinga Publicador: Universidade de Tubinga
Tipo: Dissertação
EN
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Groundwater pollution by organic contaminants such as chlorinated ethenes and petroleum hydrocarbons is a widespread environmental problem. Compound specific isotope analysis (CSIA) is a valuable tool to study microbial and abiotic transformation processes in environmental systems and has been increasingly applied in the past decade. This work focuses on experimental investigation and model interpretation of isotopic evolution during organic contaminants transformation and transport processes. The studies conducted in this dissertation include: i) Compound specific on-line chlorine isotope analysis of chlorinated hydrocarbons using gas chromatography coupled to a regular quadrupole mass spectrometer (GC-qMS). In this study we compared existing evaluation schemes to calculate chlorine isotope ratios with those that we modified or newly proposed. We also tested systematically important experimental procedures such as external vs. internal referencing schemes, and instrumental settings including split ratio, ionization energy and dwell times. ii) A self-consistent method was proposed to predict the evolution of carbon and chlorine isotope ratios during degradation of chlorinated hydrocarbons. The method treats explicitly the cleavage of isotopically different C-Cl bonds and thus considers...

Connection-level Analysis and Modeling of Network Traffic

Sarvotham, Shriram; Riedi, Rudolf H.; Baraniuk, Richard G.; Sarvotham, Shriram; Riedi, Rudolf H.; Baraniuk, Richard G.
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
Tipo: Conference paper
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Conference Paper; Most network traffic analysis and modeling studies lump all connections together into a single flow. Such aggregate traffic typically exhibits long-range-dependent (LRD) correlations and non-Gaussian marginal distributions. Importantly, in a typical aggregate traffic model, traffic bursts arise from many connections being active simultaneously. In this paper, we develop a new framework for analyzing and modeling network traffic that moves beyond aggregation by incorporating connection-level information. A careful study of many traffic traces acquired in different networking situations reveals (in opposition to the aggregate modeling ideal) that traffic bursts typically arise from just a few high-volume connections that dominate all others. We term such dominating connections alpha traflc. Alpha traffic is caused by large file transmissions over high bandwidth links and is extremely bursty (non-Gaussian). Stripping the alpha traffic from an aggregate trace leaves a beta traf/ic residual that is Gaussian, LRD, and shares the same fractal scaling exponent as the aggregate traffic. Beta traffic is caused by both small and large file transmissions over low bandwidth links. In our alpha/beta traffic model, the heterogeneity of the network resources give rise to burstiness and heavy-tailed connection durations give rise to LRD. Queuing experiments suggest that the alpha component dictates the tail queue behavior for large queue sizes...

Fluid-Structure Interaction Modeling of Parachutes with Disreefing and Modified Geometric Porosity and Separation Aerodynamics of a Cover Jettisoned to the Spacecraft Wake

Fritze, Matt
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Fluid--structure interaction (FSI) modeling of spacecraft parachutes involves a number of computational challenges. The canopy complexity created by the hundreds of gaps and slits and design-related modification of that geometric porosity by removal of some of the sails and panels are among the formidable challenges. Disreefing from one stage to another when the parachute is used in multiple stages is another formidable challenge. This thesis addresses the computational challenges involved in disreefing of spacecraft parachutes and fully-open and reefed stages of the parachutes with modified geometric porosity. The special techniques developed to address these challenges are described and the FSI computations are be reported. The thesis also addresses the modeling and computation challenges involved in very early stages, where the sudden separation of a cover jettisoned to the spacecraft wake needs to be modeled. Higher-order temporal representations used in modeling the separation motion are described, and the computed separation and wake-induced forces acting on the cover are reported.

Incorporation of Satellite Observations into Texas Ozone Attainment Modeling

Tang, Wei
Fonte: Universidade Rice Publicador: Universidade Rice
ENG
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Uncertain photolysis rates and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission inventories impair the accuracy of ozone (O3) regulatory modeling. Satellite-observed clouds have been used to correct model-predicted photolysis rates, and satellite-constrained top-down NOx emissions have been used to identify and reduce uncertainties in bottom-up NOx emissions. However, studies on using multiple satellite-derived model inputs to improve O3 State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling are rare. In this thesis, observations of clouds from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and of NO2 from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used to adjust the inputs to SIP modeling of O3 in Texas. The discrete Kalman filter (DKF) inversion approach is successfully applied with decoupled direct method (DDM) sensitivities in the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) model to adjust Texas NOx emissions in designated emission regions and categories to better match OMI NO2 data. The NO2 vertical column densities (VCD) gap between OMI and CAMx over rural areas is alleviated by adding missing lightning and aviation and underestimated soil NOx emissions to the base regulatory emission inventory and further reduced by increasing modeled NOx lifetime and adding an artificial NO2 layer in the upper troposphere. The region-based DKF inversion using OMI NO2 tends to scale up NOx emissions in most regions...

A study on modeling approaches in discrete event simulaiton using design patterns

Koh, Kim Leng.
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado
Relevância na Pesquisa
36.2%
Many discrete event simulation (DES) systems have been built using Simkit as the underlying infrastructure. Simkit advocates a modeling paradigm where DES applications can be rapidly built with simple, independent modules that are assembled in a component-like fashion. This modeling paradigm encompasses several modeling approaches--active role of events, entities as independent components, and chaining components to enable interactivity--that are excellent ways of building a DES system. This thesis is inspired by the great work achieved in the mechanisms of the underlying infrastructure. Detailed study of the enabling mechanisms and design patterns was conducted. Design patterns are proven design solutions that embody best practices of software-design concepts; this thesis proposes new design that incorporates suitably identified design patterns into the mechanisms of the infrastructure to bring out the elegance of design, robustness, and maintainability that heighten the maturity of a simulation engine. The result of this research work has been a success; several design patterns have been identified and incorporated into a new design of the mechanisms behind a simulation engine. A DES application that was built for the SEAs project was able to switch over to run on the new simulation engine while keeping its business model intact.

Modeling and simulation education for the Acquisition and T&E Workforce : final report

Olwell, David H.; Johnson, Jean M.; Didoszak, Jarema M.; Few, Stephanie M.
Fonte: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval Publicador: Escola de Pós-Graduação Naval
Tipo: Relatório
EN_US
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Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is used throughout DoD system development and acquisition to improve and lend confidence to the decisions made by program developers and leadership. In order to realize the benefits of M&S, the DoD acquisition workforce must understand the available tools. The DoD Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office recognized a need to educate the acquisition workforce. To meet this need, the Naval Postgraduate School partnered with six universities recognized for their prominence in M&S education. We developed 16 full academic courses, two resident short courses, ten online courses, 11 standalone case studies, an updated Acquisition Managerâ s Guide to M&S, and a longitudinal assessment plan for evaluating the courses over the long term. All of these materials are intended for broad distribution in the public domain to maximize their usefulness. This report describes these products in detail.

Event prediction for modeling mental simulation in naturalistic decision making

Kunde, Dietmar
Fonte: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School Publicador: Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Relevância na Pesquisa
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Nearly all armies of the Western Hemisphere use modeling and simulation tools as an essential part of performing analysis and training their leaders and war fighters. Tremendous resources have been applied to increase the level of fidelity and detail with which real combat units are represented in computer simulations. Current models digress from Lanchester equations used for modeling the big Cold War scenarios towards modeling of individual soldier capabilities and behavior in the post Cold War environment and increasingly important asymmetric warfare scenarios. Although improvements in computer technology support more and more detailed representations, human decision making is still far from being automated in a realistic way. Many "decisions" within a simulation are based on overly simple models and hardly at all on cognitive processes. One cognitive model in naturalistic decision making is the Recognition Primed Decision Model developed by Klein and Associates. It describes how the actual process humans use to come up with decisions in certain situations is radically different from the traditional model of rational decision making. Mental simulation is an essential part of this model in order to picture possible outcomes in the future for potential courses of actions. This research provides a computational model for mental simulation in a combat simulation environment. It generates the look into the near future with a finite Markov Chain as one instance of several possible predictive models. The results of the model are compared with preliminary human experimental data. The experiments show that the model developed performs in the human range with respect to prediction and decisions. This research shows that entities in a combat simulation environment having the capability of looking ahead into the near future based on statistical data perform more realistically than those that just use the information of the present...